The government trying to prevent a collapse of the countrys markets which lost nearly 30 since june. The news helping to spark a rally today. A gain of more than 3 in shanghai and shenzhen we have seen the imagine higher by nearly 5 . Keep in mind you go down 30 you have to go up a lot more than that in order to recover. Heres the greek stock exchange. Market there open for a second straight day after its five week closure. Down by only 1 today after the big pummeling it took yesterday after reopening and the u. S. Futures at this hour suggest that were going to have slightly negative open. The dow lower by 15 points and s p by 2 and nasdaq by 4. He is dismissing claims that oversupply is driving down prices and he believes the end of the broader commoditys route is in sight. Lets Check Oil Prices right now. You can see above 45, not by that much. Up by one and three quarters per cent. Its a nice gain after the sell off in recent days. Brent had gone below 50. That was the big headline. West texas has been below 50 for awhile. He makes kind of an interesting kind of an interesting looking outfit and everything as he is there talking, isnt he . The collar and t you know shaved head and everything. He almost looked like his head was floating above because its just all black like that. Yeah okay. Just interesting. Sort of i mean certainly lends credibility to what hes saying when he looks like that doesnt he . Scary, stern . Got the sneakers on and the quarters in his come on. Thats kind of weird looking, isnt it . To each his own, right . Actually, who am i talk to about wearing weird shoes. You got those on again today dont you . No quarters. No quarters in your pocket. Youre not waiting for the planet no im optimistic. Disney disney is the dow component to watch today. The Magic Kingdom set to report its Quarterly Results that will include the stellar performance of the avengers sequel the age of ultron. Analysts expect revenue to grow by 6 while profits are expected to rise by 11 . Analysts say the biggest head winds were Strong Exchange rates and investors will be listening for my pressure we have been talking about on espn. We had a Big Conversation about disney yesterday. The stock up more than 40 in the last 12 months and we had rich on who has been out finally 40 worth. You want to get out of disney in front of star wars and shanghai. Go ahead and get out. He was so focused on the issue of people cord cutting. Cord cutting. Its nice to be early. Its nice well not always good to be early as you know but its good to be at your age you might. I thought it was when youre younger. Can be. You start in diapers and you end in diapers. Things come back. 4. 5 minutes in. Not even. Check out shares of apple. 4. 5 minutes, in your dreams. To the show. To the show. I cant believe it. The dow component is in correction territory. Its been in a correction ever since it was added to the dow. Thanks for doing that. S p. Down nearly 11 for its high on the year. It hit 134 share back on april 28th when everyone continued to be universally bullish at 780 billion in market cap. There were still people talking about it doubling again. Most people are still bullish. Except you. I know they are still bullish and its nice. Valuations based on current earnings thats a great way to look at things except all you really need to know is youre at 784 billion and weve never had a trillion dollar market cap company. This might be the first one. Its just that we had other companies try to get there. Sis coe and google and microsoft in general. Others have gotten the 600 billion. Maybe it gets there but on the way to a trillion were now at 670. Could be 550. Do you think that the slide in apple shares has more to do with the overall market. No i dont. Apple fundamentally. No not at all. You dont think people getting out of the market youre going to cash in your chips on a place like apple. Do you think its a companys birth right to sell that many and no one will ever come around with a better mouse trap for the iphone 6. 49 billion in revenue in a quarter, you think thats just an annuity. Sentiment hasnt changed but sentiment on the market has changed more than on apple. People are cashing in on the stocks. When they added apple to the market i said thats common on the market. Apple. Its all related. Its not one follows the other. And the thing is scott, that over 25 years of watching when was it 1981, whenever anything gets universally loved everybody that loves it is already in. Theres a lot of guys underrepresented. If you dont think the good news on apple was wellknown by everyone in the world at 784 billion, it was and it doesnt matter. You dont even have to know how something unfortunate happened. Are you saying that was the top . I dont know. So far, youve had a chance to buy it on weakness. It may go back there. It may go to a trillion dollars. Theres a reason the expression no tree grows to the sky. Theres a reason that always comes true. Of course but if overall sentiment of the market changed dont you think apple would anticipate meaningfully in a run up in the market again. We havent made gains for 2015 but apple being such a big component of the overall market you cant even separate the two. All the same thing. If apple was not in the dow today would it be where it is today . I dont think its a justifiable question. Its not a cause and effect. Its just the symptom. Its put there because of all the things hes talking about. No one was ever going to replace sis coe or do what microsoft did or what any of these Companies Ever did again. Its hard to stay on top, especially with technology. Youre talking about gadgets. Google i could even understand. I could understand google having a higher value but having your whole future dependent on selling that many new iphones and they get more and more dependent. Do you remember the flip phone . Yeah they barely tapped the Chinese Market. Thats what people say. And even global smartphones are still, you know plenty of room to move higher in terms of the totals. These best emerging markets. But you better hope that whats the chinese . There are other smartphone makers and not to say that am will stay in front forever but its not guarenteed that you do that in revenue. Dont you think thats why the one reason people always come on is because a multiple is so cheap. Right. But analysts only look at the multiple and just hang their hat on that and their whole career that this is going to happen because of the multiple is ten times earnings you dont these those guys to invest your money for you. They can think about fundamentals but whether its a good time to buy. You make a choice of where you want to invest. Lets go back 750 to a trillion think about what other stock is far more likely or what other small cap or mid cap based on the small and large numbers is going to have that much more of a gain which is so good. The one other thing that is the in the past the aol and the people that get really fervrent. If you dont buy completely into their story theyre nasty. Of course they do. So over the next two or three years would you rather own apple or exxon or chevron . Me myself exxon. I would buy exxon and chevron, yes. We dont think that. The Market Sentiment is so negative on oil and yet theyre not going out of business. The real question is does it being the first trillion dollar company. I dont know. Who knows . Who cares. But how long . It makes a difference because if you bought it at 784 and you thought it was a growth stock to get to a trillion its only 20 or 30 . Its probably not going to double again and people that got in early saw it double and double and double again and again and again. It was a 9 million market cap. Then they put it in the dow. Then they put it in the dow. Thank you, brilliant. Anyway, go ahead. Aig reporting earnings but its okay. Go ahead. Toyota. Toyota is out with earnings as well earlier this morning. Well its been a winning formula for toyota for a couple of quarters and they did it again this one. The weaker yen, the japanese currency combined with strong sells in the u. S. Market pushing up their quarterly profits to yet another record. This is a record for three years running. Operating profits are up 9 but these higher profitabilities coming despite weaker sales. Sales in the u. S. Market are strong but everywhere else sales are down year on year. Russia they say is so volatile they cant give a forecast for the remainder of the year. Other key Southeast Asian markets like indonesia and thailand where toyota has been very strong. Sales are down there as well. As far as china is concerned, right now they say sales have not been impacted by the melt downs we have seen in the equity markets but they say they are concerned about profitability Going Forward which suggests theyre having to pay more incentives to move product off the shelves. Heres what the cfo had to say. Sales are robust but we cant be optimistic about profitability. Costs are going up and price points are coming down. Its a very difficult sales environment. In a way, though toyota has been more cautious in the china markets compared to the european rivals and germans or u. S. Auto makers and its paying off for now but they say the slow down in the Second Quarter, particularly with the equity market plunge and the hit and the bloat to Consumer Confidence theyre very worried about profitability in the second half of this year but overall a stellar report card from toyota thanks to the weaker yen capping up a pretty strok earnings season for the japanese auto makers here. Back to you. Thank you so much. Thank you. August getting off to a rough start as a major average closed out the first trading day lower. Went down to double digits. It was triple digits most of the day. The slump in oil and apple weighing on stocks. August is a historically tough month for the markets. Posted negative returns over the last 20 years. Lets bring in jonathan. Going according to plan in the last fua appearances. I see an economy that looks soggy and china dragging down Commodity Prices but earnings are coming in great. I dont think people use that expression. At the end of the day. You could use it every sentence and it would still be good to use. Along with Going Forward. So who really cares Going Forward. Right. In your view its how much total. I dont think the market pulls back here. The key is what happens in september with the fed. If the fed moves in september what theyre going to be telling the market is this is not a broken economy and we can move forward. If the fed moves off and sells us you cant get to 25 basis points without breaking the economy theyre telling investors they should move to the sidelines. I was giving you credit for calling for correction four months ago. That was somebody else joe. You may have given me credit but we have been optimistic. Earnings numbers are coming in well. You should have. Right. Taken credit. But the market hasnt corrected. You should have gone with it what are you looking for for the year . Were nowhere in 2015. How do you feel about periodapple . The multiple thats about three years ago. Not at 784. I had to come in last show and tell you the buy apple though. I think that the real disconnect here is that we have an economy that looks weak and i think you have a market thats going to do better. Earnings are coming in. Way better than people think. Youre on a lot arent you . It could be. Its you know t two handsome strategists. Right. You lost a ton of weight. I have. Im working on it yeah. When the market goes up ill start eating again. The market is going to be able to handle the 25 basis point increase. Theres some head winds in china and oil. But its not that the market can handle it. The market wants that. One of the things we have done we published it this past week is on days when Interest Rates go up the market rallies and when Interest Rates drop the market falls. Its a sign of confidence. If they dont have the confidence to go to 25 basis points why should you be an investor. Were down below 18,000 and you think if people like certain names they should buy them. If you belief its a temporary thing sure. But were in a low volatility environment. Its down around 13. This is not a buy i dont think its a buy environment. Get in get in now. You saw the chart. The previous one. The chart for 8 or 9 months has been churning around. Let me ask you this when that finally goes one way or the other will that break out and head higher or head lower . 100 higher . Lit double or youre sure it will be 10 higher. Youll probably be well over 50 higher than now but if you said between now and the end of the year high single digits. So when you said 100 you didnt mean 100 market. No 100 certainty. Its all about my certainty though. Thank you. Were out of time. All right. Youre nearby arent you . You can walk over here. Whenever you want me. 6 00 a. M. Is my time slot. Seeing as how you called for the correction maybe youre coming up well talk about your diet afterwards. Coming up the troubled spots that really heat up with crude crumbling. The countries that could be in trouble if oil keeps sliding. Check out this date in history. Seven out of ten Power Outages in the us are caused by weather. But utilities can now predict where the power will go out, within a few city blocks. Working with ibm theyre combining micro weather forecasts with detailed data from local sensors. To predict where outages are likely to occur. And send crews exactly where theyre needed, when theyre needed. Ibm analytics from the internet of things is making energy smarter every day. Be with you in just a minute. Welcome back to squawk box. John john got to hear from senator ted cruz in our delivering alpha conference where he layed out his Economic Vision for a wall street audience. How do we deliver alpha in government . Do we think washington is performing the way it should or could it perform at a far better level and how do you measure performance for government . I would suggest a couple of things. Number one, gdp growth. My number one priority in office is Economic Growth because its foundational for opportunity. I think a lot of people in this room respect an economy. Theyre not looking to government for a handout but they also dont want government shaking them down like enforcers. They want to let the market decide. If you think washington is going great, that we just need someone to fiddle around the edges, then i aint your guy. Well to see a full conversation with senator cruz and for our complete coverage of delivering alpha, visit delivering alpha. Com. The latest nbc news wall street journal poll is out and the main take away americans are feeling discouraged by the state of the union. The proportion of americans that think the country is headed in the wrong direction now 65 . Results also show that just 25 expect the economy to improve in the next year and that is is compared to 21 in march. Well have much more on those results in the next hour. Crude oil plunging nearly 20 in the past month and some countries with oil focused economies nearing their breaking point. Venezuela and nigeria being the most vulnerable according to our next guest. Shes the chief commodity strategist. Good to have you here. Thank you for having me. The footage and stories over over the weekend. Devastating. Looting. People are starving. Absolutely. You think about which could be first to fall. Theyre going into elections this year. Theres tremendous discontent with the government but the government is intent on staying in power so you could see more unrest and more violence and so theres no easy off ramp for countries like venezuela. What about assassinations . Be watching for Something Like that. I always say the last people hes not going to pay are the military and toil military military and oil workers. So you starve your population in necessary to stay in power. What does that mean . Youre a commodity analyst . Is the oil price going to stay this low . What you want to watch is if you have problems in venezuela does it lead to oil being shut in . It did in the early 2000s. Nigeria is more where the unrest thats where you could see supply disruptions. So a country like saudi arabia is also fascinating to watch. Saudi arabia is the country to watch in terms of do they pull the plug on the policy. When do they decide the pain is enough . You mean in terms of raising production. Not subsidizing the popular because of the money. They have the luxury of saying well continue to pay off the citizens to keep you out of the streets. But it does tremendous damage to their fiscal position and theyll be running debt again and at what point do they say we cant take this price environment anymore. And they restrict supply. What saudi is doing is saying somebody else should balance the market. Were the low cost producer. Russia, you sign up for a cut and well do it or shell producers were not shutting in. Every producing country saying were going to produce as much as possible and somebody else should sit out. You think 30 is more likely or 70 . Right now we could retest the lows. You could get in your situation of 40. Joe is looking at me like youre wrong again. Im not looking. There is a situation where were going to stay prolonged in the 30s, no . Do i think the demand growth that weve seen potentially provides a floor around 50 . Yes. But the problem with 70 is if every producer is going to go flat out it is a race to the bottom. The demand alone may not pull us to 60 right now. Whats your assessment of china and what impact thats having on demand. The question is fascinating. Everybody is concerned about the gdp numbers but for this year chinese demand is it strong. Indian demand is strong but thats the killer. If you say how can we get to 30 . It would be any real signs that chinese crude demand is slowing. They dont care about filling up Strategic Petroleum reserves. Its finally impacting demand for oil. I understand why india would be gobbling it up. They would be the one country in the world that does better than everybody else when the price of oil falls, correct . The one bright spot for the oil market has been india but chinese demand surprisingly has held up this year for the oil market. So its one of those situations where in a low price environment certain countries will be buyers. Chinese demand is flat or growing . Its growing this year. Up about 7 this year. What was it five years ago . Its not the explosive growth rates but people expected a situation where we would be almost f