Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20170912 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20170912

The dow and s p closing at record levels, the 32nd record close in 2017 for the dow, the first record close in more than a month. What is left to buy . Weve got some ideas we start with the breaking news, the biggest day for apple in the last ten years the expect unveiling its new iphones, lets get straight to josh lipton at apple headquarters reporter hi, melissa the new iphone finally getting revealed today, the iphone x ceo tim cook was on stage, he introduced the device right behind me here at the steve jobs theater in cupertino take a listen. We do have one more thing this is iphone x it is the biggest leap forward since the original iphone. Reporter among the new features, an edge to edge 5. 8 inch oled display. No more touch i. D. , instead facial recognition to unlock the device apple says that is more secure than touch i. D well wait and see whether consumers agree. New and improved camera system when you looked at surveys at what people were looking for, an improved camera was in the top three. The phone is powered by a faster processor and runs ios 11. It will benefit from Wireless Charging iphone x starts at 999. Orders begin october 27th, available november 3rd we were also introduced today to the new iphone 8 and iphone 8 plus 4. 7 and 5. 5 inch displays, redesigned stereo speakers, faster processors, arenabled. Augmented reality is certainly one of the new technologies. These phones benefit from Wireless Charging. Customer can begin organizdering one key item to focus on there is that the iphone 8 in late september, iphone x isnt going to be in early november. That puts some of those q1 estimates at risk. Josh, the other thing tim cook mentioned is theyre seeing 50 year on year Revenue Growth for the watch. Now that it will become untethered watch, you have to wonder how many more people will pick that up reporter yeah, that was certainly pretty interesting, the new series 3 watch will have its own cellular connection. Youll make and receive calls, use apps or stream music even when the device isnt within range. Some analysts think that could have a pretty big impact of course apple doesnt release revenue or units for that device so we realize on third party researchers. Well see what the series 3, having a more standalone product, whether that gives a bump to shipments. Thank you, josh lipton. Apple fell as much as 1 today even after the new iphones were unveiled lets walk through this iphone x. Why werent investors more excited, dan theres a lot of exciting new products there i think its important to remember that some of i guess the hype into this event had to do there was no surprises i think thats really important. When you think about the price point for this high end phone, like josh said, its not going to be out into the next quarter, thats something to consider here is the most important thing that i think is really important. You just said this untethered watch. Its going to be about 500. Those watches do not sell the way a phone does, the way you would do this, you would spread out the cost of that thing over the life cycle of that contract that you have. So this 500 watch has the potential in my opinion to cannibalize sales in this cycle, when you think about the iphone. Weve been hearing about this super cycle. You buy a watch and not an 8 . I think you could i would do that. To me it is a wearable that actually serves the same purpose as your iphone to me, im just saying, i think it has the potential to put a little bit of a damper on this product cycle. A product that was really irrelevant to this company, and we could probably throw in apple tv, with all due respect cannibalizes. Its destructive. In a couple of years its become the bestselling watch on the planet the fact that its going to be untethered from the device, this is apple making a huge foray into wearableswearables this is very bullish to me. People may go out and buy this if you buy a 500 watch, i dont know what the margins are on the watch versus the phone, does it matter that you spent 500 at apple on a watch versus 500 on a new phone, pete, in your view . I think youre making a reasonable point on the idea that there could be some cannibalization. At the same time, if the watch sales were up 50 , and this does have some sort of an impact on the phone, i dont think the impact is as big as youre thinking it is because at that price point, that really is incredible. What are the margins on the watch versus the phone my guess would be incredibly better, right . In some ways theres some cannibalization. In other ways well see much more profits come apples way. The other thing is the merging of all these platforms, thats what i took out of this today. This is something where were feeding into the services at apple. They have vertically integrated everything theyre feeding the monster, which is going to be the growth section of apple i think going forward. One of the other growths, obviously, we were talking about the watch, but the services. This feeds right into it, the billion plus users i have to go back at you. So this watch i was kind of agreeing with you. Has 16 gigabytes of memory apple makes a disproportionate amount of profit from the amount of money in there. They crank you on the memory this will be in my opinion, offthecuff, a much lower margin device. I think for people trading the stock, the most important thing today was the fact that the oled is not coming out until november when we talked about the delays, people said a sighing of relief, it was a rallying point for the stock, that people said the production was going to begin on time in fact you wont get anything in the September Quarter every 1 Million Units on this x phone equals about 1 eps plus or minus it does move it significantly. These delays i think are very important. I think thats why the stock has held up. Everything else they gave us is exactly what we knew we were getting. Lets just say tims right. Im not sure that it is, but lets just say hes right. You get a selloff to 157, thats an opportunity because these sales are still going to be there. Sure, theyre delayed. Sure, analysts what does three more dollars mean you said 157 versus 160. Thats 157 support. Then i know i have people in there. My risk rewards is much better at 157 i would rather wait for the market to come back to me. That being said, i agree with whats your name, dan . So i agree with dan. Hes going to bite your head off, like he did mine, as soon as i agreed with him a little bit. I think people buy both yes and people buy the stock. When you think about it, i know youre hopped up all this talk about cannibalization . And youll still buy the stock i think youll still see lots of units, the home pod will be off the hook, the watch will be off the hook, youll see a bit of this upgrade to this iphone 8. People will be excited about Wireless Charging on the lower end sort of device i think they have the wind at their backs. And especially if you start looking at estimates for next year, which they are about to go into fiscal 2018 its trading about 15 times expected eps growth of about 15 , with midteens sales growth the company has last year their sales declined at the end of the day, you say to yourself, okay, well, you know, they bought back 12 billion in stock last quarter, service has accelerated year over year. Im just telling you, no reason to sell it between except it always sells up after the release. But otherwise, thats fine lets bring in gene munster, he was there for apples big event there. Gene, did apple deliver, and was anything that you saw revolutionary when it comes to the iphone yeah, i think that they did effectively usher in this next chapter of computing, this next decade of computing that tim cook talked about. Thats largely going to be around these new types of interfaces, whether face or gestures they failed in terms of getting that phone out in line with expectations i know that had been kind of a moving target. Thats going to have an impact on the street estimates, the december quarter, shipping some of those units from december into the march quarter i think there are some other Unanswered Questions on some of the components for example, these 3d mapping chips, like lumentum, i think basically the wiz bang in that phone is maybe not as pervasive as what we would have thought. When you say youve got questions about some of the parts in the phone, we dont know that its a lumentum chip powering the facial recognition, are those the questions that you have right now, who is actually supplying . So maybe to put it in english, what some of the most exciting things about iphone x is this facial mapping they were showing. Well call that the wiz bang that was on the front facing camera but they didnt add that to the rear facing camera when you look at some of the comments from some of those suppliers, i just have a hard time mapping those two together. I might be missing something on asp, i want to tread lightly here i was surprised that that technology wasnt on both side of the phone gene, on august 1st, they guided Gross Margins to just below 38 , if they come in at 38 , that wouldbe the lowest gross margin on a quarterly basis since 2014 we were having a quick discussion about the potential for some sort of cannibalization from this 500 watch with only 16 gigabytes of memory are you expecting to see margins below 58 as we head into fiscal 2018 and will investors start to think about a lower margin structure for this hardware . I dont think so. Typically margins go down in the launch cycle, which they more or less set the street at those expectations and then they tend to kind of go up, call at it march and june quarter. I still think that one little nuance in terms of the cannibalization risk in terms of the apple watch and the phone, even though you dont need your iphone with you, you still need an iphone to set up the apple watch. Youre not going to get away from owning the iphone to get the watch. How about people who buy the x versus the 8 we think typically the highest end phone, in the last Cycle Service 7 plus, 25 plus units. This will be similar to that the reason its similar is more people are buying these on installment plans like youre talking about. This is going to be an incremental, about 5 per month more so i think given the more futuristic look of the phone, it clearly looks different than the phones of the last couple of years, the uptake should be similar as in the past despite the higher asp gene, thanks for joining us, always great to get your analysis lets take a look at this phone and actually we paired it or we put it side by side with the latest Samsung Phone we really wanted to know how it compares its very similar. Phones these days are pretty similar. It always does. Looks very similar, although again, you get to this place where you start comparing the samsung with the apple, ultimately the camera was a very big deal if thefact that this camera is significantly better i think is a very big deal. And i think its something that really would push the x that much further ill say this also, people are forgetting about ios 11, which makes this low priced ipad a replacement for a laptop computer there are other drivers here i totally agree with pete. Gene was getting at this with the gross margin question, the services, maybe thats the bottom, and this is a big part of the next move for the stock my reaction to this comparison, samsung does not have the retention rate of apple. Apple is at a 90 retention rate even though they might look the same, people like the operating system they like and if theyre an ios user, theyll stick with it one of the side stocks thats exploding to the upside and theyre part of the apple story, is micron. Micron today was absolutely on fire, im lucky enough to own some stock and some calls. Today they rolled up, 29,000 of those. I mean, so there are other winners in this whole game that were talking about. And theres losers too, since were talking about side salads. Fitbit, f. I. T. If im fitbit, the apple watch is a massive threat to me. We can argue about whether apple is going to cannibalize itself i want to clarify one thing im not saying that its going to cannibalize like the actual phone itself i dont think youre going to see a lower amount of installed base of the phones but if you have an iphone 7 maybe you dont upgrade yet yes you wait. The story is continuation of elongation of these cycling, these upgrade cycles everybodys been calling for an an upgrade super cycle, creating 200 billion in market cap to me, if theres a surprise in the next quarter or two, it will be that, that theyll miss on units, wont have the supply of the high end phone, and the 8 that they introduce is just evolution. All they have to do is talk about units sold on the watch, which they havent yet, thats the unknown. All of a sudden, when steve jobs came back to this company in 1997, he was dismayed about how many skus there were all of a sudden now, youre going to walk into an apple store and youll be able choose between eight or nine iphones, an untethered watch. Its getting a little crowded. To me, i think at the end of the day, they have not simplified things today was confusing on some level. If you woke up today and found three new phones to buy. Coming up, mick mcguire revealing his best ideas at the alpha conference, he joins us live plus jamie diamond bashing bitcoin. Brian kelly will break down his defense of the currency. Later, check out shares of nordstrom going parabolic as the Department Source close to a deal to go private well bring you the details. She cant become a guitar legend just by playing air guitar. The babys room wont build itself. And her paw wont heal on its own. Were all working forward to something. Synchrony financial can help your customers make it happen sooner. So she can plug into her dreams. And theyll have a new addition for their new addition. Whatever youre working forward to, even if its chasing squirrels, Synchrony Financial can help you get there. Welcome back to fast money. Youre taking a look at the delivering alpha conference. This is just one of the many, many news making interviews that have happened today. For more on todays events, lets get to leslie picker at the hotel where the conference is taking place. Reporter hey, melissa. Were hearing several people talking about whether were in a bond bubble or not when it comes to the buzz y tech names, there wasnt much in the way of criticism here is tiger managements Julian Robertson the apples, the facebooks, the googles, those great growth companies, are priced cheaper than they would have ever been in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. Reporter jim chanos presented a new idea, taking aim at tesla, a company he urged investors to short last year but its run up quite substantially since then this is a good exactly of cult stock, i think its fair to say, in the market, where the market will look at anything the way it wants to in a Glass Half Full kind of mode. Reporter leon cooperman of omega says United Airlines is a 100 stock and it will take 18 months to get there, thats a 63 upside to where the stock closed today united, i think its fair to say, has been somewhat undermanaged until 18 months ago. In the past year or so, a couple of activists have been involved. The current management now is considered to be amongst the best in the sector the management has identified a lot of revenue and cost opportunities which should grow operating profits by 2020, the next two years, by almost 50 . Reporter nick mcguire presented his best idea, terex, a company he says has the opportunity to triple in three to four years, melissa all right, thank you so much, leslie picker. Of course well be speaking to marcatos nick mcguire, hell join us in a few moments on that best idea. Other ideas from the conference today, there are so many to go through that leslie sort of ran through, what do you want to start with what Julian Robertson was saying, we talk about is tech in a bubble, is it overpriced were still at 21 times earnings Julian Robertson saying, this is not necessarily unusual, not necessarily stretched. To me this goes back to the whole idea, what price will you pay, what p. E. Ratio will be pay for where Interest Rates are right now . And thats what this whole market comes down to thats the core of it. Were not overvalued as long as Interest Rates stay low. But what i heard today, i think a lot of guys echoed this, this market is at a very difficult valuation. We almost have to reach or find, any of these guys we mentioned, i dont think theyre reachers, but jim chanos can say, this is about tesla. The news i heard yesterday about tesla signals to me theres going to be more competition in the ev space that to me is not great news for tesla. But tesla, i agree, has been straight up. Isnt that he thought a leli of competition to begin with it pushes the oem straight into the this is not a car company, right, pete not a car company thats where hes dead wrong, you and i disagree on this too its a Software Company. Ill give you that. Its got the energy side as well we shouldnt. We shouldnt care. Maybe so, but how long does that reaction usually take you just dont think if you think where apple is going to play in this space, its going to be in software. Do you think tesla wants to go up against apple, a company that has a billion user installed base theyve got the gigafactory thats only important if you think this is a car company. Valued that alone at 50 billion. This is indicative of to me this goes back to the decarbonization of the electric grid guide, the gigafactory is a factory in the desert, if they dont have i lithium ion chanos was on the Halftime Report you can be right about the fundamentals he may be right, but in the markets, hes wrong. Yes the stock is moving hard against him. And very painful, im sure. The one thing i have a little bit of a pushback on, Julian Robertson was talking about how inexpensive many of the f. A. N. G. Style names are. When you talk about, well, we can go to tesla and things are selling, and maybe its time to sell relative to their growth, im not coming after the fact. I would just argue that a lot of the managers are looking at the overall market and saying, this is a very challenging face on valuations they also cited outside forces that are keeping the market elevated a guy like jim chanos makes his money because he is often contrarian if nothing else, he will be an invest for people that want to feel safer when the world comes to an end. He was actually fascinating, h

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