Saudi arabia over the last two weeks. Feels like these days if you want a look at the implications in the oil market you need to be a geopolitical analyst at the same time and know about the ins and outs of the mideastern policy do you think its really just a geopolitical risk premium added to the oil markets is that actually something, the saudi arabia situation, that could impact the balances overall . Well, what were seeing leaving aside the geopolitical tensions for a moment is that there has been lower Production Output in Northern Iraq because of the situation there and we saw, as we said in the report, lower than expected production in one or two other places, algeria, nigeria, venezuela, mexico, lower growth than expected in the u. S added to the fact that stocks are falling as we also see in the report and demand in reasonably strong. There are some underlyingfu fundamental factors that help drive prices, but the situation in the middle east has added further momentum in the upward movement in prices well have to wait and see how that plays out i guess its very difficult to forecast what oil price also do and how this situation plays out in the next couple weeks do you think that it is sustainable . Do you think these levels and maybe were seeing fatigue around the 60 mark, do you think it does have legs at this point . What we say in the report, though today things are reasonably strong for the market, as we move into the very early part of 2018, we do see some potential softness in the First Quarter of the year. Current numbers expect that supply will actually exceed demand in the early part of 2018 that is not a recipe absent geopolitical problems to see prices rising significantly. So you said a second ago, some fatigue around the 60 a barrel mark that may be true people are focusing on the immediate geopolitical concerns and people are looking back at the underlying fundamentals. The other takeaway from your report this morning, i think its quite major, theres another downward revision of demand forecasts for 2017, but also for 2018. What does that mean for the continued rebalancing . How do you explain this disconnect from the opec side of the equation were seeing an increase in the demand forecast. How would you explain that our colleagues at opec see things differently and they have come to a different conclusion i have not seen their underlying data as far as were concerned, they have made a small downward adjustment to the 2017 demand growth number for the year as a whole. Weve explained that by the fact that since the middle of the Year Crude Oil prices, lets take brent, for example, have gone up by 40 and theyve gone up by 20 since the early part of september. That must have an impact on demand growth. Intuitively that must be the case to some extent as we carry that forward into 2018, it must have an impact there as well. Also weve seen the beginning of the Northern Hemisphere winter season, and higher than normal temperatures in the early part of the season. So we made an adjustment for that there is a downgrade to demand growth in 2018 thats true. But its still growing strongly. I dont think we should overemphasize the impact of the change at the same time im looking at an interesting report that youre not the author of, but i know youre advising on this this is about the report that the International Energy agency put out tuesday saying there will be 300 million electric vehicles on the road by 2040 this will cut 2. 5 Million Barrels per day or 2 of Global Oil Demand by that time. That report and headlines weve been running all morning is that we should not be writing the obituary for the oil markets yet. How detrimental is that to demand overall the best people to answer that question are my World Energy Outlook colleagues. From the perspective of my outlook, which is basically no further ahead than five years, the impact on oil demand within the fiveyear period and a few years beyond that from electric vehicles is modest as we look further ahead which is the job of my World Energy Outlook colleagues, the picture changes depending on policy changes made by government is, and depending by technological innovation well have to wait and see how that plays out thats a job for my world Energy Colleagues to explain. Neil, thank you very much for your time. Neil atkinson head of the oil industry and markets division at the iea. Nancy is live in abu dhabi and has been talking about all things oil prices this morning nancy, what are the Key Takeaways . I can tell you i wrapped a panel with some members in the industry as you were touching on there, the iea conclusion, dont write the obituary of oil yet, thats very much their message as well. One panelist saying oil and gas is here to stay, but they are looking at adjustments the conclusion of that panel was that a year from now, whatever the price, you will be looking at an industry more fit. That is what theyre all working towards. In fact, one ceo telling me they dont want to see the price go up dramatically because that might change some reforms taking place, some structural adjustments as they see healthy to the industry when it comes to reacting to the new normal for the sector we are here in ab due bab eu dhn thing were keeping an eye on is the saudi aramco ipo yesterday the question was asked of whether or not the ministers thought the ipo would go ahead in 2018 or not will it happen in 2018 . Yes or no . I think it can happen, but it all depends on the aramco and the government of saudi arabia what do they want for that ipo to happen . Its not just launching the ipo. It has to do with the right environment, the right price, other parameters so, actually it depends on them. Its not a speculation of whether i think they can make it happen, and they can, if thats the question theres an interest by the International Community for it to happen, but are they going to decide at the right time, next year i think if they said so, they have a potential to do it. And i trust them not quite a yes or no thank you. I think cnbc said yes, so i will say yes, it will happen your excellency i think it will happen. Sir with the kind of delegation and commitment were seeing, most probably its going to happen, i guess. There you have it i think one minister there saying with regard to the saudi arabia ipo taking place next year, the price and environment would have to be right thats something that the Leadership Panel i talked to, theyre still talking about whether or not the price is right. But theres an acknowledge that theyre moving ahead, making the changing that need to take place in this environment. You were talking about electric vehicles there there was some discussion that perhaps this industry could learn a thing or two when it comes to automation and innovation nancy, thank you very much for that want to bring you the latest in terms of statistics this morning from italy italy posting a solid 0. 5 growth number in the Third Quarter when it comes to its gdp. So its recovery is clearly continuing and that leaves italy on course for its strongest growth since 2010 euro dollar 1. 1706 want to show you the rest of the equity markets just slightly moving to the upside this is after five days of declines. So slightly friendlier tone across the markets as we are contending with lots of earnings from a host of different companies. Want to show you the european markets. We are seeing outperformance in the dax. Very, very marginal one. The dax up by 0. 3 , on the back of very strong gdp numbers from germany as well for the Third Quarter to the tune of 0. 8 . The ftse 100 up by 0. 2 . Sectorwise, this is the view. You have basic resources, oil and gas slightly underperforming as oil prices and basic resource prices are coming off the boil technology, chemicals moving higher but i promise you, we have a host of numbers to get through today in terms of Third Quarter earnings report. Vodafone is trading near the top of the stoxx 600 after it raised its full year Earnings Guidance. The adjustment comes after it posted a strong first half performance boosted by organic growth the worlds second largest mobile operator expects ebita to grow around 10 up from a previous forecast of 4 to 8 . Vodafone saw its revenues slide a bit because of deconsolidation of its dutch business but managed to raise its dividend. Shares up by 4. 2 . Infineon shares are trading higher to the tune of 4. 3 following the decision to raise its dividend the firm increased its payout to investors despite reporting earnings which missed expectations. A different picture for henkel shares in germany shares off 3. 3 . One of the worst performers on the dax and the stoxx 600. These shares are under pressure following its warnings that Challenging Market conditions in the consumer goods sector will continue the german consumer goods company, which is behiupping it 17 Earnings Guidance after posting a 3 rise in organic sales growth alstoms first half net profit was boosted the french train maker was in a deal to merge with siemens and said it remained on target for its 2020 goals still coming up on the show, as the parliamentary debate over the brexit bill begins, we speak to the president of the Peterson Institute for international economics, thats adam pose zenn thats coming up after this short break. Happy anniversary dinnedarlin im messing up every dish, pot, and plate. To show my love. Tada all this devotion only calls for a little bit of dawn ultra. So concentrated, just one bottle has the grease cleaning power of three. Bottles of this other liquid. A drop of dawn and grease is gone. Try using dawn beyond the sink. 23 countries signed up to participate in a new European Union defense pack the initiative was proposed by france and germany as a push to deepen eu integration in the wake of the brexit vote. The only eu countries not to participate are britain, ireland, denmark and malta theresa may has been asked to speed up brexit negotiations before its too late cos warned they could move out of britain unless a transitional deal it in place. May has bowed to pressure from pro european conservatives by offering the British Parliament a full vote on a final brexit deal with the eu. Its the latest sign of her deteriorating position as turmoil within her government interrupted brexit plans Joumanna Bercetche is live in london im sure brexit is high on the agenda. We will definitely be talking about brexit joining me is adam pozen the president for the Peterson Institute for economics. Thanks for joining us. Speaking about the uk, the bank of england hiked rates a couple weeks ago. Many people are calling this a policy mistake what is your view on the hike . Do you think they were right to go if i was right on the mpc, i probably would have voted against it its not like 20 110, 2011 where it was not driven by domestic inflation it was driven by concerns over potential output in the uk. But also by brexit it meant that the bank had to be more worried about the stability of Inflation Expectations about the pound than they otherwise would have been. This is part of what happens with brexit. The bank of england is not back to the 70s, but its more like an emerging Market Central Bank in that it has to take the external situation into account. It just cant set policy based on domestic inflation. Were seeing in the uk the data beginning to slow down a bit. Of course the political back drop has begun to weigh on the currency do you think Going Forward the currency will be the main release valve for how brexit negotiations are going i think the daytoday month to month movements in the markets will focus on negotiations thats not that important. For some people watching who trade it is, but for the british people and the british economy going up more than six months what will happen is a decline in the pound. Uk irrespective of how negotiations go, it is making itself less competitive. Its shutting down economies of scale where 60 of exports go. Inherently, you combine that with other imbalances in the uk, growth of consumer credit, the still large government budget deficits, the imbalance in trade thats there even before brexit, and this all weighs down on the currencies month after month people were blame politics and uncertainty fundamentals are down. Do you think thats problematic for bank of england ultimately we saw the decline in the currency last year had an impact on the inflation numbers, and some people say they were coerced into a hike because the cpi numbers were so high on back of the currencys appreciation if sterling heads another leg lower, we may see more inflation in the uk but the wrong type of inflation at a time when the economy is saying. Thats what i said to you just two minutes ago the pound is moving and the bank of england has a dilemma it didnt before, because the expectations on the inflation is not as anchored and the pound is not anchored where from 92 through 2012 it was. When the pound fell a lot in 2009, there was initial inflation, i and my colleagues in the mpc could look through it and say it will not get passed on thats what happened in a world of brexit and a shambolic set of actions by the government on fiscal and brexit policy, that anchor is not as strong yes. They have to worry about it. I dont like this idea of good versus bad inflation i dont even know what that means. With inflation, its a question of whether the first round shock, when the currency moves and that automatically, as you say, puts some inflation into the system, does it keep going does it lead to a spiral thats more at administrations ability to pass tax reform do you think eventually, if tax reform does get passed it will be stimulative for the economy absolutely. I dont think its good for the longrun growth for the economy, as many conservatives pointed out in the u. S we built up a lot of debt in the u. S. , i argue for good reasons, but we dont have much fiscal room left. Monetary policy near zero. If you go further into debt now when unemployment is low and the economy is doing well, you will not have the resources you need if another shock comes along, if a recession comes along. I think in the short run it will be stimulative they will do large unfunded tax cuts i think whatever else gets decided about the tax code, that will happen. And large unfunded tax cuts means stimulus on the order of 0. 75 of gdp a year for the next couple of years. Thats not trivial when were growing close to full employment do you think that will impact the fed policy from here, given that the fiscal impetus will be hitting the economy, there is a lot of turnover at the fed right now. The two together, does that make you believe that the fed will turn more hawkish next year . I actually am counter intuitive on this youre right to talk about the turnover at the fed as being important i think President Trump is demonstrating the old adage its better to be lucky than to be smart. So the weve never had a budget take this long to be passed for a firstyear president , but because it was so late being passed t will be his appointees rather than the yellen fisher fed that will be voting if the budget was passed last april or last june which is when it would have normally been expected, then probably would have had one or two more hikes by the previous fed. You will get a new fed, im not saying theyre compromised, but theyre going to be disposed to say, well, this is stimulus, but its also structural reform for the economy, Corporate Tax cuts are good he can need to dynamically score it we need to wait and some people like Charlie Evans or Lael Brainard who made a good case for waiting. I think theyll surprise markets. They wont turn hawkish, they will move once in march and sit still. And end there end there for a while, for a year, in my view which is something of an outlier now. What do you think is the biggest risk to the u. S. Economy you were saying the tax cuts initially will be stimulative, fed will be hiking where is the risk coming from . I dont think there is much risk people say if the recovery goes on a long time, it must die. The historical evidence for the u. S. And most advanced economies is no, something has to happen for recovery to die. Something unforeseen in addition to the fact that youre getting stimulus from the fiscal side and im arguing or im predicting that the fed will be slower too raise rates than people think, we have a balanced economy throughout the world europe is doing well japan is doing better. China is doing better than people expect. India is doing okay. You look at a world with a balanced recovery which we have not had for at least 20 years, theres less vulnerability to external shocks. You dont have the huge capital imbalances when one country is growing and another is shrinking. So again, i dont think what the trump fiscal policy does will be good for the u. S. Economy over the medium term. I think its risky in the short run the u. S. Economy will do great. Adam pose zen, thank you ver much i will be back with youguys a little bit later, perhaps tomorrow well talk about it, ill sit down with david lipton, the deputy managing director of the imf and with mr. Padawan, the finance minister of italy. Back to you. Thank you very much for that. We will continue with central banking speak. We will have special coverage of an allstar panel of central bankers including janet yellen from the fed, mark carney of the bank of england, mario draghi and the bank of japans kuroda, thats a starstudded lineup thats 11 00 cet these gentlemen and the lady, they will be speaking from frankfurt from a conference there. Lets get back to big news ge shares posted their worst single day decline since april 2009 after the Company Announced it would cut its Dividend Payment in half. Ge announcedplans to restructure to emphasize healthcare, aviation and energy. Co