Micron, qualcomm, all following. These have been some of the hottest trades of the year is this the beginning of a bigger pullback or should you buy this dip dan . Its a tough one. Obviously we had microns earnings a week and a half ago they beat and got higher they were talking about nand pricing and dram this is a headwind for apples margins, theyre a big customer of apple for me, you have to think about this apple announcement, we see this every quarter whether its hush hush, whisper whisper, theyre not going to have the builds they did on this high end phone thats going to possibly affect their asps. Last quarter expectations were not particularly high because people knew the iphone x would be pushed out later into the calendar q4 and all of a sudden they gave this massive guide for units in this quarter, 85 million. I think at the end of the day you have a stock trading at 170, i think back then it was 160 if they were to come in line and guide, you know, down a little bit, i dont think its the end of the world i dont think it changes the story a whole heck of a lot. Youve covered apple for a very long time as an analyst the taiwan economic daily, they report this, and they dont have any specific sources, and yet people in the market really took this very seriously. Why . Im actually surprised, given the context of this. So every year, theres some noise. But theres a ritual around going into an iphone cycle youll hear about these massive builds i want to give a quick context to how those builds and then they get cut they have those big builds because they want to keep their suppliers at task and make sure they produce a ton of inventory, then they dial that back this is normal operating, im surprised its getting the traction it has. These 30 Million Units theyre expecting for the iphone x for the march quarter, if apple does that, that will be double the number of iphone xs that the market is expecting. There is a Positive Side to asps in the news. Its great having you on the desk the question you have to ask is, theres going to be catchup quarters in q2 and q3, essentially probably the march quarter, at least the june quarter, where we wouldnt have seen that in other refresh cycles i think you can impute this to taiwan semi and other chip makers too, theyre getting hit on this news is this ultimately a positive for apple, the fact that there was slowness out of the gate and now its more of a smooth run . Its a normal operating procedure. It probably is a positive. Whats most important is that they still cant keep these in supply just now, as of yesterday, 97 of the stores in the u. S. Have iphone x thats basically tripled over the past few weeks if there was a demand issue, then we wouldnt have a supply issue. You would know if theres a demand issue this quarter is going to be really important to see you know, listen, the fact that they freed up supply as soon as they did i think is really surprising to me, if we get a sense for the mix, because the plus was going to be a big seller, we knew that at the end of the day they raised prices on all these phones this was a massive uptick, either 1,000 or 1,150. It should be great for asps if they hit the 30 million number a funny thing happened on the way to the forum visavis the parthenon. The pullback on apple is a gift. Very little spillover into tech more broadly, triple qs down 50 basis point, the biggest stock down 2. 7 . Very little spillover into the semi applecentric chip stocks were hit the hardest, yes smh closes on the highs of the day, still down 1 , im okay with that. Taiwan, the epicenter of this story, down 1 this is a high beta market a lot of sort of storm here, a lot of noise, but not a lot of signal the stock didnt even break below its 50day moving average. Youguys are all bulls i have to take some issue here lets talk about micron, a huge supplier to apple. Down more than 10 from its highs. It gapped up after those earnings and then got creamed, okay taiwan semi is down 10 from a month ago, 52week high. Come on it could be the hottest sector, the hottest trade in tech over the last two years is starting to roll smh goes up 33 andpulls back 8 on a classic seasonal run. You dont have to be bullish, but a rotation out of technology. This is where it would start. You heard it out of micron. Dram and nand, youre seeing a rebuild of inventories we saw a drawdown of inventories in the last six months you just think you can overreact. What if the presumption is thatthis can start or make the rotation out of technology snowball theres already this thought in the market im not sure thats a bad thing. Maybe its not a bad thing. Youve seen the action in energy, well get to the surge off the bottom tech has held up extremely well, i think, given this aggressive move into energy and more cyclical factors we talk about seiasonality. One other piece out there, we know our best estimate is that things are going well right now for apple, despite the news today. I think thats probably indicative of the broader semi market if you fast forward six, nine months from now, well be talking about 2019 im more concerned about the multiples on some of these chip stocks at the end of next year as we start thinking about because whenever you have a big year, you naturally have a pullback in the growth rate. To me, thats one of the bigg bigger but your presumption is that in 2018 these stocks will continue to run. Exactly in the first half. When things are doing great in the middle of 2018, thats when multiples start to is that your sorry to cut you off, mel, but to me its all about the multiple where are you next year on earnings, eps . 12 you can put a 16 multiple on that, you get to about a trillion dollar company. Thats the high end of the multiple so 10 from here. Guys, heres the thing if there was ever going to be a cyclical stock, they introduced a thousand dollar phone and they dont have the demand im just saying, im not wishcasting but were not sure about that well know in a few weeks it wasnt a smooth launch its not because of demand he just said that. We dont know what are we talking about . We dont know. The iphone x demand has not been great, okay . So if we see that in their guidance for the march quarter, then thats it, in my opinion, they totally miscalculated on a market where 85 of the market share is android and the average selling price is maybe a third of apples average selling prices so to me, if they cant have a hit in this high end product in this quarter and the next one, that may be it this gets back to a company that has no innovation and its all about one refresh, when thats not what people have been talking about for the last six months theyve been talking about 23 growth in services, theyve been talking about asps that are growing higher if anything, Gross Margins are going higher hes year was the lowest in two years. Thats the call i mean, the call is their asp, theyre holding it. Theyre not giving it up and then there are places like india and china which are turned around meantime the stock is headed to 300 billion in market cap. The bears have been calling a cyclical stock theyve missed out on 400 billion in market cap. I think 2018 will be another great example of that. It wasnt just apple, the rest of the tech space taking a hit as well. Rich ross has three names, head over to the plasma, rich there he goes. Sauntering away. Do we have to invite him back not necessarily weve made our list, we checked it twice microsoft still comes out on top. We talk about the strength the relative strength versus the market some of the weakness you saw microsoft is holding like a rock look at the short term trend, the next move coming out of this pattern is higher. As we discussed last week on this very show, its the power of this base that makes us really bullish here. This is an 18year base here, absolutely and on a relatively basis, look at this. Youve just started to break out versus the s p first time in 17 years, taking out those old highs. Theres really a lot to like about microsoft. So now were going to look at vmware, well stay in the Software Space, maybe not a household name but it should be. 70 billion in market cap. An equally bullish base, albeit shorter, talking about a fiveyear breakout base here to a new alltime high. Just like a microsoft, what we like about the stock is this relatively strength breakout you see a stock that had been underperforming the market for the better part of the last four years. So now we emerge, both relatively and absolutely, as you saw, just before microsoft and vmware in the Software Space, two great buys the big boy here, facebook what i like about facebook is the stock hasnt done very much, okay for the last five months going back to july, the stock is not underowned but underappreciated, underloved i like that, going into one of the strongest periods of seasonality for tech and big tech more broadly. We go higher theres three great ways to play technology, microsoft and vmware in the Software Space and facebook in the faang space. If you werent on the desk i might not invite you back. Hes going to be homeless whats he going to do . Come on back tim, your pick of the three i like Facebook Facebook has priced in a lot of challenging news the headwinds coming out of europe obviously the stuff in terms of privacy is a big deal here i think theyve also let the market know theyre going to spend a ton to control some of the factors in their business, including the media side of it, that have gotten a little away from them. The fact that this stock is holding this ground, that is bullish. Another big advantage that theyre going to have is they havent monetized messenger yet. Theyve hinted thats going to be coming. Analysts have been putting concepts around that that should be possible over the next couple of years what do you think payments messaging in general. Paypal is a massive lever for this company to pull when they bought whatsapp a few years ago, they said they wouldnt put ads on it and they havent done anything to monetize it. Would they put ads on the app . Theres a lot of ways to do it, deals with retailers, that sort of stuff. To me it sounds like payments is the way forward. With facebook, you just mentioned it, you just said the street knows theyll be spending more 2018 eps is expected to be up 11 . People have already worked in, you know, higher costs 30 sales growth. To me it may start looking cheap if people see other levers for them to pull im glad you mentioned the cashout. What are the odds that facebook or apple does something with blockchain or crypto in the next year and what does that do to the multiple weve seen what it does to Long Island Iced Tea multiple apple is not going to do anything in crypto in the next year, it isnt part of their culture. Theyll let someone else lead and be the pioneer there facebook . I think it might work with a third party to do it would you be happy as an investor if they announced something . Look, i think showing an awareness of how payments are being made and how the world is being disrupted or certainly disinteredi disentdi disintermediated facebook is trading at a premium. When you listen to paypal talk about venmo, they talk about it as a social media network. I think their silence speaks volumes here the fact that were not rushing into the market on this Nascent Technology thats really yet to be proven outside an historic run on the stock charts here as it pertains to the stock chart itself, youre moving sideways here. Thats bringing expectations down as you go into a period of very strong seasonality, you want to buy large cap tech stocks like facebook when the stock is consolidating in sideways fashion. Coming up, the Hedge Fund Manager who has just bid a cool million bucks that bitcoin will rise you wont want to miss that. Energy stocks leading the market today are any of the traders buying this move . Well find out later, tim has the hot hand. Were talking about a pitch out of the park. Now hes doubling down on one stock thats already up, 80 this year. The name when fast money rerntus. For your heart. Your joints. Or your digestion. So why wouldnt you take something for the most important part of you. Your brain. With an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is now the number one selling brain Health Supplement in drug stores nationwide. Prevagen. The name to remember. Wifiso if you cant live without it. T it. Why arent you using this guy . It makes your wifi awesomely fast. No. Still nope. Now were talking it gets you wifi here, here, and here. It even lets you take a time out. No no yes yes, indeed. Amazing speed, coverage and control. All with an xfi gateway. Find your awesome, and change the way you wifi. Welcome back to fast money. Energy stocks leadingette market today. The xle rallying up more than 5 this month this as crude oil has surged more than 2 today, hitting a high of 60 a barrel, the highest level since june of 2015 is energy setting up for a 2018 rally . Weve seen one already the 2017 rally. This isnt about saying who is right or whos wrong what im saying about energy is so many people avoided this for a lot of Different Reasons, which included i dont need to own it, ive been hurt before, blah, blah, blah you saw this with a couple of key names, especially anadarko, late summer, they started giving money back to investors, they started investing for equity shareholders, not debt shareholders that changed the tone. Midstream right now looks very interesting. Oil services and midstream looking the most interesting this is storage, transportation, pipelines, mlps. These are the names to me that are trading at massive discounts relative to their histories. This is the time to buy them mr. Technician here the underlying commodity looks good thats not the problem with energy you have a bullish multiyear base of support. Youve touched 60 today for the first time in two years. You take out that 200week moving average, for the first time in three years. Crude, if it were a stock, you would buy it Oil Field Services are down 20 , seen s p energy down 3 . The strongest names have been integrateds, refiners. You keep buying those. E p, you like those. Oil field services, halliburton, thats a group that still has some wood to chop here it should come around. A lot of things should happen. You guys are all bullish. How much does this have to do with positioning when people came in bullish this year and pretty bearish on oil in general . Its totally about fundamentals some of it is positioning, because people have been so negative think about where weve gone, where inventories have gone. Weve gone into possibly weve at least taken out the massive supply the sector being underowned, does that super charge what exists in terms of the fundamental story . Does that work here . More people will have to push into it. Yes but i think we now need to look across the entire space. If you want to look at resources, commodities, its not just oil thats doing this copper is at 3 1 2 year highs. People have to believe this isnt just about a weaker dollar or just a supply story that suddenly changed you have a demand side of the equation you have a lack of investment, a lack of a path of investment in all these sectors, which means its putting upward pressure on spot do you think the weaker dollar is going to be sideways this year then you stay with these trades. To get a trade out of it, you can get that based on sentiment and positioning. It gets washed out, you get a nice yearend surge. To get the big long only money involved, to make energy overweight again, youll need to see fundamentals come through. Weve seen signs of it but youll need so tea people put billions behind it i like what we see into the new year rich is a bridge builder, bridging the divide. I will just tell you guys, when i look at this crude chart for the last 20 months or so, its traded at 40 to the downside, now getting back to 60, that looks like the best trade in the space it looks like its poised for an epic breakout. How do you play that in the equity market, tim i would go eog, cbx, and an apache those are great. Retail seeing its best Holiday Season in years. That has a number of names surging. Should you trust the retail resurgery he is nore sur resurgery resurgence . Ill explain wondering how high bitcoin can go one Hedge Fund Manager is betting it could hit 50,000 next year. Hell be here to tell us why plus tim is bringing the heat, pitching one stock thats up 80 this year he says it has even more room to run, when fast money returns across web and tablet . Do you want 4. 95 commissions for stocks, 0. 50 options contracts . 1. 50 futures contracts . What about a dedicated service team of trading specialists . Did you say yes . Good, then its time for power e trade. The platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. Looks like we have a couple seconds left. Lets do some card twirling twirling cards e trade. The original place to invest online. I used to have more hair. I used to have more color. And. I used to have cancer. I beat it. I did. Not alone. I used to have no idea what the American Cancer Society did. Research . Yeah. But also free rides to chemo and free lodging near hospitals. I used to maybe give a little. Then i got so much back. I used to have cancer. Call 18004944357 today. Your contributions to the American Cancer Society fund valuable research. But thats just the beginning. A cancer diagnosis can kick off years of challenge. And thats where your donation truly shines. You help us fund free rides to treatment. A live 24 7 help line, free lodging near treatment centers. And even efforts to expand access to insurance. So, please donate today at cancer. Org and help attack cancer from every angle. Welcome back to fast money. It was another wild, wild weekend for bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency seeing huge swings over the last few days. If today is an indication, the bitcoin boom is still very much intact seema mody is breaking it down reporter melissa, after losing one fourth its value last week, it rebounded over the weekend although still trading below its recent peak of 20,000. There are concerns that coinbase is experiencing a backlog of outgoing transactions for bitcoin and ether. Despite the recent volatility in those concerns around coinbase, bitcoin still up over 1500 this year and its market cap has risen over 250 billion. As trading operators launch new bitcoin products, a broader range of investors are showing interest in bitcoin. And per google trends, interest has been rising throughout the year in nations like south africa and australia melissa, back to you seema, thanks so much dan, youve dabbled in this. Coinbase probably 50 times this weekend we had that massive 30 selloff in just a couple of days the fact that its found a level and stabiliz