Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20180116 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20180116

Dow surging 00 points breaking through a key record before taking a reversal. Ayman jaggers is a of the the white house with all the information. Reporter they are trying to get steve bannon on camera to answer a mystery, did he answer questions of the House Intelligence Committee or not . We know he was there, arrived earlier this morning there are reports he was asked by the white house to not answer questions pertaining to the white house. Of course, the most interesting questions that the Intelligence Committee will have for steve bannon relate to the white house. The question is, did he or did he not answer those questions. Later on this afternoon, the white house put out a statement not exactly denying that they asked bannon not to talk and Sarah Huckabee sanders, the White House Press secretary, was asked about why the white house wouldnt want steve bannon to talk, even though she would not specifically say that they asked him not to talk. Heres how Sarah Huckabee sanders answered that question. Thats something that i would refer to attorneys on that matter, and specifically Steve Bannons attorneys look we have been completely cooperative throughout this entire process we are going to continue to be but we are also going to maintain some of the executive privileges here at the white house. Reporter you heard Sarah Huckabee sanders there invehicle vo invoking the words executive privilege but not necessarily the white house invoking the white house privilege as a legal matter. There is definitely league wrangling going on, what we dont know are answers to some key questions. One is did the white house actually ask steve bannon not to talk two is did steve bannon talk or not. We height get the answers later this evening stay tuned are there grounds for somebody subpoenaed who refuses to answer questions. My understanding here is that if he gets a subpoena from the Intelligence Committee he would be able to talk. We will have to talk with some constitutional lawyers about this because under executive privilege there may be a way for the white house to assert that his conversations with the president himself would be protected. Well have to get the lawyers sort all that out. But its not clear that steve bannon decided not to talk, because he has been up there for several hours. So he has been something for some period of time on capitol hill this afternoon. Ayman, thank you. A lot of questions here. As you can see, the market selloff accelerated right after the media reports ayman was just talking about hit the wires. The selloff seemed to bottom out when the white house released a statement clarifying those reports. While it seems like nothing can take down this market, what has caused panic albeit temporary selling this year has been the chaos in washed. We should make sure this is not about politics, we are not having a political conversation but clearly the market is reacting to what is going on in politics and seems to be worried about this the question tonight is is the investigation into trump the only thing that can wreck this trump rally . Grasso yes in a one word answer, its yes i think all the things you listed as the reasons why the stock market has sold move the past this is a real personal issue. He knows where the skeletons are. He knows where the bodies are. Bannon. Bannon. So if he starts singing, the markets start sinking. And that is end of story for the market you will sell first, ask questions later. He has already turned on trump he has already turned on trump jr we dont know what hes going to do it is a big if if he decides to sing if he does its lights out for the market. Feel like having gotten the tax deal done that puts a floor under the market i dont know that its at an at the money put. But this tax deal is bigger than what happens in the Trump Administration obviously, thats a big story, but i think that businesses around the world are growing and thats helping our economy here, thats helping u. S. Stocks, its helping stocks around the world. And the tax break is real and its done. So its the economy stupid not calling you stupid but you are saying that that trumps many nights you could i think you have a case here where if you think about the dynamics that karen is talking about, if anything, i think a lot of havent given you the full deal into what the tax deal and what it does for them and they are not incented to try to drive up thor about. Infrom the consumer perspective, look we have had roughly over a billion in terms of hand outs to the consumer and they are going to start to see some of this coming through in terms of their wage gains and what happens in mid february i think its all about the market itself has taken itself has been i dont need to you will ka it euphoria. It has moved in one direction for five, six, seven straight sessions thats what happened today, thats the story. We are also getting into a busy week when it comes to earnings. One of the thing we have said for a while is, bullish in the market, but whats going to be an indicator that suggests maybe we are running out of steam. One of those to be potentially a big up day on the market on a day when the vix is up big as well the mark was up to a couple hundred dow handles but the vix was elevated all day one day is not a big deal. We have seen things like this before, but if you are looking for i said it before with steve, on the closing bell. This is the closest reversal day we have had to february 10th, 2016 since effectively that day, s p trade down to 1810 reversed Deutsche Bank did a bond offering that day and we had some headlines out of the uae about oil. All of those things lined up that put in a bottom for the last twoers yao. Im not suggesting the headlines are similar in the other way but again the price action we saw was reminiscent. Is this muslim Mueller Bannon stuff an excuse at this point to sell a market that may be overextended its never just one thing you have the big round number of 2800 everybody talks about the market being overvalued i think it was the perfect storm for the market today the outside reversal day though tells me we closed above the number we needed to. It tells me they want to wait and see. If bannons story continues the next couple of days and we start to hear he actually did speak then you could see the market fall. Does it matter if one thinks that trumps presidency is is in jeopardy impeachment stuff. If he comes out and speaks what everything thinks he knows about, i think the presidency is in jeopardy. I think thats what we are all talking about. At least i am. I think the one thin that is sort of built in and isnt there yet is infrastructure. You have a lot of industrials and beneficiaries of an infrastructure bill, maybe thats starting to get priced in i think that would come off the table. And the big move in bitcoin, in crypto currencies today thats a factor in overall markets. Im looking at the aftermarket. Ultimately we have got a case where you think we found some leveling i think the Risk Appetite for markets is a case where other high flying stocks, airlines got dumped Industrial Metals got dumped you had upgrades by deutch across industrial metal space and a lot of those names settled down testimony high flyers, less attractive quality in terms of management and earnings stories were the ones that closed the hardest because they moved the most. What will be key tomorrow for you . How the vix trades tomorrow the reducel had a huge reversal in the russel close to the lows of around 156. To me, the two biggest thing ill give you three thing. How the vix trades how the bond market trades, which rallied today. And how the russel trades. Two of the biggest gainers since Trump Took Office have been boeing and catty pillar but there is something this the charge that could be signaling a top. Carter has the break down. Reporter these are obviously high flyers. They are almost cult stocks. Each operates in a duopoly caterpillar with komatsu, and obviously, you can see the spread maybe its earned and desired. Lets go to a tenyear chart you can see the spread correlation. And now this epic run. Lets pull it back even further. This is going back to 1980 all data september of 1980. S p, and whats happened of late granted this is arithmetic lets look at a log chart to try to put this in coneck the. Its the same chart going back to 1980 but ive done it nonlinear to try to put in context the preceding prices relative to current price. Heres what catches my eye if i put in a channel i didnt manipulate this what we know precisely is the 1980 recession close if reagan, the 1999 high, the 2007 high, the 09 low, and for the first time weve actually blown through the top of that channel. My hunch is that we are going to fall back in at the minute to the channel. How far are we this is, again, those two securities plotted equal weight. Typically you will get a check back towards your 150 moving average. Thats my bet. That would apply about a 10 to 15 selloff here and just to put this in context, from the low of february of 2016, we are up 200 on a two year basis more immediately, take a look at these statistics boeing and caterpillar plotted equal weight a three month gain of 30 . The probability of that occurring is onetenth of 1 a six month gain of these two securities, the probability of that occurring 1980 to president is. 05 a one year gain, a twoyear gain this is exceptional. The question is first if you are long old only to, buy and he would how, do you trim sure if you are tactical, do you trim or get short on the bet that even if these triple from here they are probably going to ukt correct and perhaps in a meaningful way. Carter comes over oh, come on. Come over, carter karen will bring the chair in thank you very much, karen. Just to clarify its not the combination of the two dow stocks achieving those gains simultaneously, is it . If you took those two and made them one security, the 300 billion and looked at the his three of that one security, 1980 to present this is basically an incident rate that has occurred own one or two times in history. Does it get treated separately or not . There is another way to look at it. Individual the two stocks are the number one and number two performer on the s p industrial stock sector basically if you go back and find any instances where they have both exceeded 75 in any given year its exceedingly rare. If i look at the chart and the overlay over the s p its pretty much identical. So if you say that one turns or should check back, then the s p checks back. So its chicken or the egg for me. The long term chart, they diverge. But the day to day with the s p, its much steeper. Do you think if the s p turns south then these turn south as well, obviously to a different degree. I am not saying there is cause and effect but they would go down more because they have higher beta. And these are stocks that traded at eight times earnings in their past what does it say for their sectors what you see for the sectors in their charts, especially boeing. These are almost cult status. When you think of 3m you dont think of them. They have more competition but the sector itself has not outperformed the market in the last 12 months, the industrials. But its as steep as you are going to fine it in the rolling 12 month period. In terms of the overall charts we are all talking about reversals in todays session what did you talk about it. You are talking about a day to day thing when you have a new high and then you close on absolute low, last time we saw that was august 8th. And it gave way to a 3 selloff. I would think this would be more like 5 to 6 selloff. In other words we are steeper than we were in august. Does the vix tell you anything, it opened higher and closed higher on the day first time we have seen that as well in a hng time. Everybody is participating. Banks are on fire. Energy is on fire. The consumer are you negative on the market im always negative on the market more so after today are you more negative. I think you have to assume this is an important intermediate top that gives you a give back, correction, dip, something that put it this way, if you are bullish you want a dip or a correction because that is what sets up the next advance. If you are bullish you say the dip is the beginning of a nightmare. Did you say closed on the low. It didnt close on the absolute low, no but in the bottom of the range. Are you in the camp that you think this will be the set up for another advance or even fur bullish would you remember if the you are bullish have it go up another ten or give back ten . Give back ten. Then after resting it can assert itself and go aagain if you put on another ten at some point you give bakr mo. If you are bull iish you want a correction, and if you are bearish you want a correction as well what did you do today. I was doing hedging taking an opportunity on friday the we think the market is in a tough place the rest of the week, whether in the white house or a euphoric move, playing shortterm protection is not a bad position i did short a little bit iwm i think a lot happened there. Karen i sold a little bit of facebook, which was only a facebook story, thinking about it over the weekend. Trimmed a little there otherwise, no im hanging on to what i have got. Coming up, General Electric getting slapped. Having its worst day since november after a breakup to be ahead. Plus, dont look now, bitcoin crashing almost cut in half from recent highs. A top strategist says it could mean trouble for stocks. Chris harvey explains high. Ford reist leasing disappointing guidance moments ago. The telast details after this break. Much for fast money coming up next big plans. Big plans. So how do i make the efforts of 8 employees. Feel like 50 . How can i share new plans virtually . How can i download an efile . Virtual tours . Zipfile . Really big files . In seconds, not minutes. Just like that. Like everything. The answer is simple. Ill do what ive always done. Dream more, dream faster, and above all. Now, ill dream gig. Now more businesses, in more places, can afford to dream gig. Comcast, building americas largest gigspeed network. We cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. And at 4. 95, you can trade with a clear advantage. Fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. Ford reporting guidance moments ago. We have the story. This is disappointing guidance in the eyes of many people ford is looking at a profit next year that really is not going to be changing much from 2017, giving a range of 1. 45 per share to 1. 70 per share the midpoint, 1. 57, thats below the consensus right now at 1. 6 ford giving this guidance today at an Analyst Meeting here in detroit just within the last couple of hours. During the meeting they outlined the fact that the company is still going to be making heavy investments as they try to transition away from cars into more trucks, suvs and autonomous drive vehicles, increasing the amount of money they are investing when it comes to autonomous drive vehicles from about 4 billion, and electric vehicles as well, 4 billion up to 11 billion so the combination of greater spending as well as this lackluster guidance and the fact that ford relatively to their competitors probably doesnt have the strength of the truck and the suv portfolio has frankly given people a few jitters this afternoon as they give guidance for 2018 meanwhile, you look at what this says relative to their competitors, look at the outlook for 2018 generally speaking, most auto make remembers saying look we expect strong profits. Not a huge bump from 2017 but we do expect profitability to be up on a healthy basis at the same time, the companies are also outlining their plans for the future what happens the nafta ford has already outlined its plans over the last year General Motors says its not changing its production plans until they know exactly what happens with nafta and we saw what happened with Fiat Chrysler last week. Finally there is the question in terms of trucks and suvs if you have new ones coming, we know the big three all do, but particularly gm and Fiat Chrysler are geared towards that market thats wherethe strength of th profits are going to come from in terms of total sales for 2018, most believe we will see 16. 7 or 16. 8 million, falling below the 17 million mark i should point out more than a few executives said look we think the tax changes could be a benefit to the market of anywhere from 100,000 to 200,000 units. As a result, dont be surprised if you see vehicle sales in 2018 get up to close to 17 million vehicles two stocks to watch, first race, thats ferrari, today their ceo said we are going to build an electric car if tesla can do it, we should be able to build a Premium Sports electric car they are planning on doing that. At the same time, Fiat Chrysler continues to move higher phil la buff from the Detroit Auto Show on ford. The stock is down about 2 in afterhours session. Compare and contrast with what gm has said it sounds almost kind of in line that 2018 would be as good as 2017 its in the eye of the beholder and what you think of fords prospects as opposed to gms prospects in terms of how you interpret it. Fords prospects are not as rosie. And the cap exthat they have to throw into autonomous. If anything, you would expect eps guidance to be better depending upon where they could see front loading of the tax impact to the taxpayer and their numbers. For full year december on u. S. Cars, fords were probably weaker than gms they had a ihere amount of fleet sales. They had less profitable components to the overall mick ford is the one. And gm is exsensitive, and its relative value here. I agree gm is the one. I think they announced we are closer to a beat they talked about meeting the higher end of the range. And also for next years strength for ford it is a little under. I mean at this valuation, i think gm is muchmer. They seem to have momentum also, they talk about trucks how important trucks are gm is an enormous truck push. Casino stocks are soaring. Traders will weigh n. Im melissa lee, you are watching fast money. Heres what else is coming up on fast snoetd breaking up is hard to do but a break up could not mean anything good for shareholders well explain. Bitcoin getting bashed again. Now a top strategist says it could lead to selling in the stock market he will be here to explain why, when fast money returns. When a critical patient is far from the hospital, the hospital must come to the patient. Stay with me, mr. Parker. The at

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