Even if today was a dow. S p inching down 1. 3 . Nasdaq climbing 4. 2 the fed is supposed to cut rates when the economy is in trouble, right . How can the economy be in trouble if the s p 500 briefly made an alltime high . I hear a lot saying this but its based on the serious misapprehension usually bring people who dont understand the stock market itself because it is a market of stocks. Its no longer a good gain the indices arent a good gauge to the economy the recent rally tells us lots of companies are doing well. Some are doing well because of lower Interest Rates than the treasury market. Some are doing well. Theres been some fast growing tech stocks that have not been constrained and farm well, farm and fast growing tech tend to thrive in a weak economy. More importantly i think were looking at this backwards. The market roared to these levels because wall street thinks there is going to be a rate cut it would be much lower in jay powell told us it was still on the table that there wasnt going to be any change and talked about a rate increase we would just be down huge. At the end of the day the fed is looking at the whole Business World and recognize that everything from big projects to hiring itself might be put on hold because executives are freaked out by the president s tariffs. They are really starting to have a very Chilling Effect even if they dont want to admit in the white house. Both the current ones and the ones that might be out of the future are important to how Business People make decisions see, jay powell isnt being reckless at all. Hes being prudent when you see major indicators like railcar loadings, okay, boxes, chemicals, steel, lending coming down, these are early signs of what could happen prelude to a recession or a slowdown powell doesnt want that he wants to prevent it. Remember, he didnt commit to cutting rates next month, right . All he did was say hes monitoring the situation i think powell is trying to get ahead of the slowdown. But hes not going to pull the trigger until he sees the employment numbers for june and whatever the president does next on trade at the g20 meeting which is staring us right in the face thats as good a place as any. Monday im looking for two things that might happen over the weekend. I want some preview of the president s trade talks with china. Especially since i expected another 10 tariff proposal on the remaining 300 billion worth of goods we buy from the chinese possibly even before the g20 remember, its a proposal and hoping the white house will come up with a more proportional response to iran shooting down that drone in fact, if anything were overbought and we are due for a pullback remember i talked about the proprietary oscillator that helped us call the bottom . It breached 6. Come down a little but breached 6. On the positive which tells me you got to do some selling thats why were raising cash endlessly for my Charitable Trust which you can follow along by joining the action alerts plus. Com club. Tuesday, a fulcrum day why, we hear from lennar and fedex and micron, gigantic semiconductor company. If you want to know why the fed is taking a dovish approach listen to these three. Its going to tell you everything that you need to know lennar didnt have a glowing report but this quarter it has the benefit of lower mortgage rates. Get a surprise, thats one less reason for the fed to cut. But i dont know if well get one. Fedex will tell the tale of a slowdown and tariffs companies that sell merchandise overseas have had a hard time lately fedex frays that how about micron this commodity slammed by price targets all week, the problem, micron misjudged the level of demapped and thought it would start to exceed the supply for their basic chips as soon as the second part of the year and thought it wouldnt recover. Instead prices keep going down that means the estimates are too high when they report. Sometimes i think micron represents a bargain trading at five types earnings but like that, thats a big neon sign that says earnings are going to collapse sometimes it doesnt happen. Most times it does wednesday we get results from general mills. If you remember the last quarter they had a very nice upside surprise, in large part because of blue buffalo dog food a lot felt they paid too much. I think this stock reflects a lot of positivity. Its currently someone spinning distance 52week high. You know what, if i buy with new high stocks ill buy pepsico i want them on and those are a pair of snacking plays why. Millennials have a predilection to eat seven types a day do they do anything i do even a smidgen, a smidgen of commonality . We both breathe. We both breathe. Okay, on thursday we hear from these companies that lots of people want to bet against walgreens, mccormick, nike i get the bear case on walgreens. Amazon is killing them on the commodities and agencies galore looking into the pricing for pharmacy and back. How bad is walgreens id rather actually have you own cvs. Another house of pain. If you insist on buying a drugstore how about mccormick the spice kingpin. Thats interesting and have this line you know its red hot, ha, ha, 7 of its float has been sold short which i think is way too high just kidding mccormick has a good track record and expect a good quarter. I think it can go higher n nonpromotional i didnt know that i made my own cayenne pepper sauce i should serve this at barzan miguel never mind as for nike i keep hearing theyll have a shortfall why . Because of china but nike is a better relationship with the party than any other American Company thats it. I dont like the risk. I liked it at 80 on friday constellation reports, it needs to tell us a tale of strong beer demand its been raining a lot. I can tell you from being in the tavern business, raining makes it just hurts beer sales. Im concerned it might take another clubbing like last time plus after last nights shortfall the Cannabis Company, some sdrefrs are questioning that v i say its too early from there off to the g20 where President Trump will meet with president xi and hopefully hammer out something hope should never be part of your equation. Im not optimistic weve seen this before it didnt accomplish anything. The president thought he was had. I think people could be disappointed the bottom line, we had a great run this week. Last two, three weeks but the market overbought territory and a bunch of negative catalysts why it bays to be cautious wait for more days like today if you want to do buying, especially that nasty last half hour, a full scale markdown of every highflying stock including ipos in this market. Steve in new jersey, steve caller jim, big booyah from new jersey how is it going . Pretty good how about you . Caller look, time is money make this short and sweet. Amd got me real excited. Maybe gold and ubs but thats a different segment. How much has the market placed in the deal. If it goes through will amd make the short heads explode . My us exploded from steves question i like advanced micro marking time between the 28 and 32 level. People worried there is a glut of semiconductors and going to extend to amd. I dont think it will. I think theyll navigate the way through and longterm position wendy in nevada. Wendy. Caller hey, cramer you talk a lot about these companies that just hit the market like crowd strike and beyond meat. Yeah, i try to keep people current on these im sorry. Go ahead. Caller nothing but pfizer anymore. Im not a fan i didnt think it was special enough logo, poster, no i just dont think i think it snuck in there between a bun of others and dont think its special enough so i liked evolve that got killed. Going back to steve in new jersey were talking to him again steve. I think we should go to somewhere else i think we should go to a whole different state. Hello. Caller this is joe from north carolina. Im done with jersey for the day. Joe, whats up caller mr. Cramer, thank you for your time. Real quick, i see verizon Ticker Symbol vz, americas best Reliable Network now 5g helping consumers in many ways and number one struggling Communication System may be used in a. I. To educate students that understand better while teachers can focus on the lesser understood. Right. Caller number two in health care where the technology can pinpoint Health Issues where more accurately than the human eye is. Youre a buyer of that. Let me say verizon is the stock ive been recommending since the show began and think its a well run company. It is a core holding for a lot of people and i agree with that idea it is a stock i can recommend and when i see you on the street youll say, hey, you know what, thank you so much, jim cramer. I am taking a cautious stand into next week and up a lot. The market is overbought, let it come down. I suggest you do the same. Hey, on mad money, dude, youre getting dell at a discount but does that mean its worth buying im eyeing the company after its pause and unlikely retailer firing on all cylinders. After a tough day for the cannabis cohort im eyeing a name that could be worth considering once the dust settles so stay with cramer. Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter have a question, tweet cramer, madtweets send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc miss something, head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Last month everything that is connected to china broke down as the trade tensions kept escalating witness dell technologies. Late january not long after dell returned to the public markets, i pounded the table on this one and told you the company had changed dramatically thanks to the acquisition of emc it was no longer a play on personal computers but a diversified tech play, not to mention coming owning most of vmware which is one of our favorite cloud kings at the time dell was trading at 44 bucks and told you it was discuss way too cheap to ignore. You got to own this one and its been a pretty darned good call although it looked a whole lot better and at first it caught fire but since midmay the stock is coming right back down plugging more than 16 bucks from its highs, 23. 5 while still up 10 bucks from where i recommended the darn thing has been slaughtered lately what happened to dell . Does it make sense to buy the stock here or is something gone very, very wrong has this stock gone off the rails . The proximate cause of the decline came at the end of may when it reported a not so hot quarter. It wasnt terrible it wasnt great either modern servings on top of weaker than expected sales. Dell cited some softness in server demand and some weakness in china, oh, man, the guidance was solved but that commentary did spook investors and it got hammered between dells china exposure and possible slowdown in their server business driven by weaker economies, the stock couldnt get much traction. China has become a minefield minefield for the tech sector. Worse than other areas because this is at the crux of the trade war. President trump wants to prevent the chinese from leapfrogging us technologically hence the huawei blacklist and new computer black list he rolled today out of nowhere dell got about 11 of its sales from china last year although now they say its more like the high Single Digits and like apple it is caught in the big cross fire you have to worry how much its supply chain is based in the prc meaning trumps next round of tariffs, the ones that im seeing, 300 billion, it might hit dells products. We know china has already started to hurt the numbers. On the latest Conference Call the cfo thomas sweet explained what im talking about quotes and theyre very tough. We did see some slower server growth than we anticipated this was more pronounced in a few area, principally china and in certain large enterprise opportunities, end quote wow, later sweet adds, quote, we did see some softness in china, end quote. As for the tariffs they managed to navigate the president s first three rounds of tariffs and the Company Believes it can handle the latest increase in 10 to 25 and planning to adjust to the Global Supply chain in anticipation of a fourth round sweet says the company sell more competitiveness in the china Server Market and didnt make sense to chase an unprofitable business all that said, i think most of these china fears are already baked into the stock look, their stock has gone from 70 down to 54 precisely because of what i just mentioned its not like its revelatory theyre thinking about putting dell on their list of unreliable Global Companies [ boo its complying with the huawei ban and that would hurt the other big worry, the apparent softness in Enterprise Information technology and a lot of people thought this was very strong see, now suddenly everybody is concerned about a slowdown both here in the u. S. And the rest of the world. Its a slowdown driven by big business between the trade wars and feds misgietded rate hike investors are more cautious. If it keeps slowing wall street fears Companies May cut hardware spending i think this is definitely the case this is the softness that jay powell thinking about potentially cutting Interest Rates in the not too distant future yeah, so what if the stock market is high this is happening underneath the stocking flying are the ones that dont have anything to do with the economy how vulnerable would dell be to this slowdown . When we spoke to Ceo Michael Dell back in march he explained his company has a lot more exposure to the most critical areas of the enterprise tech spending meaning the last things we get cut is business start freezing their i. T. Budgets meaning it might not be as bad as the action in the stock suggests these worries are hitting vmware dells subsidiary a major play in the cloud structure base. Vm is one of our cloud kings why . Its a crazy thing the numbers are good when they reported on may 30th, the same night as dell posted a terrific top and bottom line beat and announced 1. 5 billion buyback and because the Earnings Guidance for the next quarter they didnt raise numbers. The stock got annihilated. Down 7. 4 . The very next day. Given that dell owns about 80 of vmware and its a 71 billion company that explains a decent chunk of the decline in dell stock. On the one end vmware stock ran up going into the quarter we were talking about for years well, it means it was really poised to sell off no matter what on the other hand, this company is all about virtualization. Allowing customers to take a single server and use it to host multiples so investors fear if it might get hurt if the server business is slowing down. However, they say they dont have much correlation with Enterprise Hardware spending the business is about helping companies on board the cloud particularly amazon web servers. Wall street want the vmware to raise its guidance thats what we were hoping for but management left it unchanged. Heres my view on vmware i think they were simply being conservative i dont think there is anything wrong with vmware. I think the sellers whew it out of proportion and i think theyre just trying to make it so the bar isnt too high. I say vmware at 173 is a better buy than dell. It may be more expensive but thats only fair gian its faster growth rates and more limited Economic Sensitivity although theyre much smaller. One pivotal software, wow, it lost 40 of its value in the last three weeks the weakness in this Cloud Based Development software is tougher to explain their full Year Revenue Guidance without much of an explanation ouch these are all real concerns but when you put it together dell is sticking to its guns standing by its forecast of 605 to 60. If they deliver those numbers this stock is having 8. Atimes earnings dell stocks, most are triple that 7. 4 times next were numbers when you see a multiple this low, it means wall street is expecting the estimates to come down however, at these levels im betting most of the weakness is already reflected in the stock price and that assumes nothing gets better. If michael dell is right that the company is less sensitive to the Slower Economy i think this could be a fabulous buying opportunity. If we get a trade deal its a rocket ship. Bottom line, unfortunately dells stock is shackled to china so it could get hit again next week if we dont get a trade deal but if that happens, i think then you could buy sdem into weakness. Its just gotten too cheap to ignore and speak to andrew in new york andrew. Caller hi, jim this is andrew calling from brooklyn, new york. Go, brooklyn. Whats up . Caller i wanted to let you know i watch the show every day. I love the show and big brooklyn booyah. I like that i like that its the, you know, brooklyn is the house of kings the is the way i look at. Caller highly recommend it highly recommend your restaurant. Thank you. Caller okay, i want to give a shoutout to my wife and my parents on Staten Island so im calling today in regards to the Ticker Symbol ayx and twopart question on alteryx. What do you think the short term year opposed to long term five year Growth Potential is for them and the second part is, do you think it would be a possible candidate for acquisition in the future some competitors would be tableau, microsoft, ibm remember, they do data stores and retrieval and reporting. Yeah, youre right i have liked them. I made a big mistake and filled out to be a customer of them and everywhere i go it follows me. Every time i put up an ad, theyre a very good company. Thats a cool call i lying it felicity in florida. Felicity caller hello, mr. Cramer you are my mentor. There you go. Thank you. Caller long time listener and first time caller. Im calling about cyberarc im up 80 should i keep going or sell it they keep delivering. They have a business business but up 80 were being piggish, take a quarter of it off the table on monday that way i feel better otherwise, ill sit here and worry about you. Dell could get hit depending on the g20 meeting. If that happens buy, buy, buy and stick with cramer Brian