Sachs. Weve got tech giants, and microsoft, plus dough laggard united health. Do you trade or fade these names going into the Earnings Report we thought wed kick off monday strong with a game of trade it or fade it. Monday, right out of the bat. Right out of the gate netflix, guy adami, trade it or fade it . Trade it, see that, you thought i was going to quiver. I think weve been steadfast on this my concern prior to the last couple of days, heres a stock thats gone from 250 to 380 in a straight line. The selloff the last couple of days has me somewhat encouraged. People are taking profits into the quarter. I think its wrong i think their International Net adds will continue to dominate and impress people all the competition talk two or three years away, the Stranger Things which ive never seen, apparently everybody is watching now. I think the franchise is strong. Yes, they have a debt problem. They have a huge mote. I think you buy netflix. You know what, im actually right with you huh yeah. Were you concerned about the fact that it ran up . It only ran up for the top of the range weve seen for the last year. Now were in the middle of the range. I think you could actually get a bit of a reversal the one thing i like about netflix, a lot of investors out there thinking we might have a recession sometime in the next 12 or 18 months. Whats the last thing youre going to cancel besides your phone . Your Netflix Subscription most likely plenty of other things go before that. Ill go hungry before i cancel netflix. If i had this dog hunt as the expression goes, meaning its been sideways. Route of performance is one of the message robust factors when looking at getting returns in a portfolio, the relative performance, the relative strength is disastrous. What about the chance for a breakout youll obviously have to be this new carter to your point it stopped on its 100 Day Moving Average which is 36215 that to me looks a little bit encouraging if it stops going down and doesnt breakthrough to the other side, i think you have the ability what does that mean in this game trade it. That would be green, trade it im a fade it three to one. How come he didnt get the buzz when he said fade it . I dont think he actually he just said it right now there you go. This is redemption for carter here this is his turn microsoft, alltime high today, trade it or fade it . Just as we were sort of hearing earlier is that a good thing or a bad thing, right, so the bull will say hey, whats not to like and the bear would say well, great, how much is left this is the most bullet proof stock there is in terms of its risk adjusted returns, the limited drawdowns. I think it is a fade it because its too good. Whoa. Wow i thought he was going to trade it i would have guessed after the bullet proof. Its better you guys do the fade or trade right away, and then its like we dont need to hear. Thats why he i zoned out pantheon. What do you say im actually a what am i i trade it thats when you buy it and its primarily for everything that carter didnt like, right . Its in an up trend, its got limited drawdowns. Youve got very few reasons to sell this except for a major market selloff if youre thinking that were still going higher, i think you can probably be in microsoft and be all right. Or you can think about im going to say on this one, i would trade it, but the bear case, so i established that i would be a buyer of this, but the bear case is valuation and lower margins on where theyre trying to get to, the Cloud Business lower margin that to me is the headwind. Today is monday as you mentioned earlier. It is monday. July 15th, so they report on the 18th so thats thursday, so its like haiku, i got to do it on my fingers. Im trying to play the game correctly. I think you trade it into earnings, pull the rip cord into earnings and then fade it. Why is that . Everybodys got this 150 price target, close to 139. So like the day of the reports you sell pull the rip cord the other reason to sell it, bk begins with a v, valuation what are they going to say in earnings thats going to make him sell off i dont necessarily think its what theyre going to say. Just not going to be good enough. Its not going to be good enough. When did this become a trillion dollars company were all focused on apple. Were all focused on amazon. This one skates right past everyone it got dissed by us. We didnt do a whole show on it there was no trillion dollar market cap ringing the bell. There was no thing we do for bitcoin in the lower right, that whole thing. Nathan, though, you know dan, maga, thats the m in maga. But i think dan would say faded at this point. Hes not here, he would hate it. Anyway, with can we move on unh, brian kelly fade it or trade it im going to take a page out of carters book and not tell you what i think. Because you dont remember. Take the camera off me while i look at it im looking at this in the beginning of the month the stock was 240, right . Weve now moved up almost 30 points well over 10 move here any asset that moves up that much and particularly a stock when the volatility is relatively low to that, to me thats a fade. Ill fade it this is where you sell this one, not necessarily anything against the company, but its just the price action. See this is exactly what i want netflix to do this has been dormant because its come to life, its a trade it, meaning its showing us now. Really, after a 10 move . Thats nothing. The point is this was lackluster, not performing, wasting time, and its coming to life, the hope for netflix is what makes it more appealing momentum. Potato potato. Often we get off the desk and move over to the smart board and do the power pitch i know for a fact categorically this is one weve power pitched. It troughed valuation around 220 at 13 times, historically low for them their norm they already said trade it before i said trade it. Because you power pitched it. I do trade it because theres at least an 18 multiple on this environment if not higher. Im with carter worth. Ive been steadfast. I say trade it, mel. I want to go to jpmorgan now. Think about jpmorgan up 16 yeartodate but what was the catalyst for financials, regulation cuts and cuts in taxes right . Mmhmm. That to me that storys over. How about a steepening yield curve at this point . Is that going to happen i dont know. Im not sure its going to happen either. If youre going to buy a financial, you have a diversi diversified financial with jpmorgan i would still be a fader. Im a fader as well for many of the same reasons, right lets look at what happened with citigroup. They had some okay ernarnings b trading was down thats going to hurt jpmorgan. Theyre not maybe as globally diversified potentially. Its just to me already run up why am i getting involved in this im a fader. Hate it you must really hate it because you said it straight out yeah, i know. This is best in class, but its priced accordingly theres almost two times book, the truth is its not going to deliver any results. All right, we got a bonus round here. I love it. Its like the Jonas Brothers had like three of them, and then theres a young one. Not really but anyway our bonus round is chewy, up 50 since its ipo. Remember peter linynch who si buy what you know . Bk and more importantly mrs. Bk spends a lot of money on chewy youve got to buy what you know. You take a look at the stock it pretty much traded sideways i think any of the bad news, any of the weak hands have been shaken out of this, and now youve got repeat customers, subscription based type of things and right after netflix or actually right before netflix, maybe after, im not sure which one, its not like in a recession youre going to stop feeding your dog. Do you care who you buy your stuff from if youre a prime member why wouldnt you buy the stuff on amazon theyre a little cheaper. Theyre cheaper than amazon yeah. And you like the name. I do like the name. Youre a dog person. I have three dogs. Right thats amazing, right as many kids as i have dogs. I think im somewhat of an expert in both and im sort of in the bk camp i understand amazon can disrupt them you know what they have, they have Customer Service thats unparalleled they write you little notes about your dog i think theyre going to surprise people on the upside. There you go. I like that. Fade it for me i would actually this is the one company that i wish had a brick and mortar. If you can go in there that separates it from an amazon. If you can get professionalism and understand what the hell is going on with your dog when he throws up on your rug. Its not a vet. Thats a different or they make it up, right ive seen you do that on air you take the pick all right, we mentioned citigroup kicked off earnings season for the financials on a high note kind of, decent results but the chart action wasnt that great. Chart master says if youre looking for bang for your buck, better beware of big banks tell us why. This is sort of a dormant area of the market, an important area of the market, its the life blood of the system in a way, but its just not its not working. Lets look at a couple of charts i started this chart, comparative chart, s p versus the bank index, from the absolute peak of the 2007 market top, october 11th, 2007. We have a financial crisis plunge and then the entire decade of recovery, and what we know and theres no way around this, yes, that youre still down if you own banks in aggregate, negative, versus of course the return for the s p. Lets do this a different way. Lets put the bkx on top and now look at its relative performance. Here we have our plunge. Here we have this recovery, again, basically a little bit down whats so important is its just been heres your wipeout, and youve never really gotten any better, and thats to some extent dilution. The truth is now what . Is it working . Lets go a little tighter. This is the more important thing, the here and now. This is the president ial election this is the trump bump, and this is the big move which you see on an absolute because and relative, but what we know after that, of course, is weve undone the entire election, so all the tax cuts and all of the regulatory relief and all of this, and yet were below where we were after those very sort of good developments for this area. So now what . Because you dont have those tail winds anymore lets draw some lines on this same chart a couple different ways two things i would note is after the trump bump, you make this high, but you dont make a relative high, right so you get the big move and the big move absolutely relative but even as it followed through, the relative started to stall. Lets move on and do it another way. Same thing and heres the really the problem when banks go down, they go down more than the market when banks go up unfortunately they go down more than the market theres just nothing here and i dont know what fixes that lets look at the chart of the bkx itself its a failed theres no way around there head and shoulders bottom that fail was that some sort of double shoulder, something out of a strange museum, no, somethings wrong with it, yes, and then here are the lines. So working into an apacx you ca see them theyre very clear, deadly clear, and what we know which is likely when you get into the apex you get a big move. Bulls believe of course its this i think its opposite. I think the Interest Rate environment is not going to help them i think the operating environment, equities, trading, banking and id rather be underweight or short banks. I have a question, carter, when you get to that wedge point, you seem to bring in fundamental factors, is that the only way to then determine which direction that wedge will break out into you can whats so interesting is were getting into earnings and what was so telling about the action today, citigroup some people thought the number was good, some didnt. It was up initially, then it faded, then it recovered it shows what a debate it is thats the nature when you work into a period of equilibrium this will be resolved. It will likely be dynamic. At an operating level at an Interest Rate regime, this is not the place to be. Carters going to walk over you can ask a question very talented very talented. So carter, what im curious about is i was looking at the regional banks today versus kind of the bigger cap, lets call it bkx. Can you get any kind of technical signal out of looking at the regionals for the larger cap space . I think you can so theres a case we made, and that was the case being made for the last two years that the regionals didnt care about currency, right . And they didnt care about slumping europe, and they didnt care about prospective problems in the middle east or china or north korea. Thats the problem the regionals which should have been doing so well with a good economy have not done well, ask thats a testament to relative strength, how poor its been i think the tell there is that the big banks will ultimately just be as dull as the regionals have been. And how about the xlf when i look at that i keep it really simple. I go back to june of 2007, they topped out at 3097 in the xlf. You go to the 18, they top out at 3032. That to me is a pretty stark realization that maybe the banks are realistically out of gas, theyre out of numbers and these multinationals or these big name banks, high cap stocks are done. Well, and this is nothing to do with charts you all know this, they were regulated to a point where they cant have the roes that they had. They were trading three times book, but things were being transacted, thats never going to happen again as long as theyre regulated the way they are. Its just not a place for hoffa if one is choosing between banks and other parts of the market. Within banks insurers insurers particularly, but travelers and Property Casualty and life health names are the areas to be or american express. Coming up, check out shares of jb hunt after reporting shares a moment a, the stock su more than 6 . Energy and health care the worst performing sectors this year one top strategist says get ready for the ultimate turn around, and later amazon prime kicking off its twoday shopping bonan bonanza. Its not the only retailer thats benefitting from this bump well tell you who the other big winners could be were live from times square, new york city, much more fast money right after this. Here, it all starts with a simple. Hello hi how can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone [ camera clicking ] wifi up there . Ahhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. Weve got an earnings alert on jb hunt, Frank Holland back at headquarters. Watching the stock right now, shares up more than 6 kind of surprising spike here after a big miss on eps and revenues that were in line with estimates. Citi note that just came out said the company would have been in line with estimates if not for a onetime charge perhaps explaining why were seeing this kind of positive movement. Still, the numbers werent that great. Its most profitable segment, intermodal trucks to trains missing estimates as well. A 5 drop in its intercontinental business. Overall with the biggest increase in its eastern network, a soft freight environment daily truck rates are falling about 50 yearoveryear june to june while capacity has increased. One bright spot for the intermodal Business Revenue per carload did increase the biggest growth is in its dedicated trucking business where companies outsource their shipping logistics that increased doubledigits the company has its Earnings Call at 5 30 eastern time. Analysts i spoke with said theyre expecting to get insight on the inter modal and when the company will expect to see growth and commentary on pricing. The decline in truck rates in 2019 putting a lot of pressure on that business also more insight on its online brokerage business called jb hunt 360 david vernon from bernstein says hooegs hoping to get transparency as to how much the company is spending, especially as bigger players are getting into the space the Earnings Release did not include Forward Guidance they want to know what the companys projecting for the full year after two quarters of missing on eps and as the industry overall is facing a freight recession. A lot of pressure on trucking. Jb hunt shares up more than 6 all right, frank, thanks. Frank holland back at headquarters to elaborate on that citi note frank was talking about, a lot of the consensus estimates did not include the impact of that charge, and when citi actually accounted for that, they said that it came in, the eps came in 0. 03 ahead of consensus and core ebit beat city charges. Thats why were seeing the shares of 6 . The expectations were really low here thats why youre seeing such a bump up. What i think is interesting, it will be interesting for the rest of the week and particularly tomorrow is that intermodal number that was down. People have talked about about that quote unquote freight recession. Tomorrow csx, they have earnings after the close. Jb hunt also talked about their eastern part of the states operations being somewhat weak thats where csx operates as well thats going to be very key for tomorrow. Right, the intermodal revenue miss, this is a miss, and thats half their revenue for this quarter, and i think this is a classic relief rally i think it wasnt as disastrous as the industry would suggest is it should have been. I think theyre going to rally i wouldnt be surprised to see couple of downgrades tomorrow. If you look at the short outstanding interest, it never gets much more than 6 and gets as low as 2. Coming into this its at or near the high of the range. 5 right now. Right at this point everything everyone said, power of low expectations but if i wanted to pick my poison in transports would you rather, im going to go delta im going to go with the airlines go with the performers versus the under performers who has the exposure and who doesnt have the exposure to the max 737 max and delta doesnt have the exposure. Thats the outperformer. Im raising my hand because steve just its a brilliance in what i mean, he says many brilliant things but you know, a great game of would you rather, get two miserable Companies Like a g and a fedex and instead of would you rather, its pick your poison all right, the inaugural episode, pick your poison right now, ge or fedex ge. I wasnt prepared for this segment, but if youre making me pick my poison. You picked the two poisons. Theyre your poisons for more on jb hunt and what it means for Earnings Seasons head to cnbc. Com. Julian emanuel says the best way to catch this record rall