Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240714 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 14, 2024

Into big tech. Lets get the detais with ylan moye. We have confirmed that the department of justice is announcing a broad antitrust review of big tech likely to include amazon, facebook, google and apple. In a statement, it was set that without the discipline of meaningful marketplace competition, digital platforms may act in ways not responsive to consumer demands. He went to say that the departments antitrust probe will explore these important issues the focus of the new inquiry will be whether companies reduced competition, siefld innovati stifled innovation or harmed consumers. The companies were forced to testify on capitol hill to defend themselves against allegations that they are monopolies just this afternoon the congressman leading the effort, david cicilline, criticized the answers as evasive, incomplete or misleading. Now the Justice Department is launching its own review it is not officially an investigation of any Single Company but it could lead to that back to you. Ylan, you know, a couple of months back or maybe a month ago we heard news that they were divvying what we cull Big Technology this specific release though says dominant Online Platforms which leads you to think that apple may not be included in this group. Well, it is unclear at this point. They dont name any specific Company Names in the release, but one thing that was decided on earlier, we thought, was who would have jurisdiction over these companies. These are big reviews, Big Companies, complex issues, and it seemed that the regulators had agreed to split that up. Now this review appears to go beyond that and be bigger than that are there going to be turf battles that could perhaps jeopardize the speediness of these reviews and inquiries . We will certainly have to see. But clearly the department of justice now making this on the top of the agenda. All right ylan, thank you. Ylan mui for us in washington. She will keep us updated we are seeing declines across the board most sharply in facebook, amazon and alphabet, each down more than 1 guy adami, you are an investor in these names as many people out there are. How do you trade these what do you do the one that scares me the most well, it is scary number one for the three names you mentioned. It makes sense theyre all down. It probably makes sense that apple i would imagine is down small if not unchanged but amazon end of earnings on the 26th, now with the headline you look where it topped out, look where it traded down to, look where it just retest evidence you say to yourself, am i playing in the deep end of the pool so i dont know if earnings will necessarily matter now for amazon, facebook and google. I still think facebook sets up well, but i mean these headlines and im going to try to read through the press release. Its has to be a little frightening, right we were talking yesterday about how take trade headlines, amore foes, bad News Headlines and you factor it into the stock. Here we are hitting this participate of the stock market. Hough do you think about it . This will be irritating for a really long time, right . We dont know how we dont have much clarity except theres a more formalness to it, right the thing that i hate about investigations like this, they go on and on they are a tremendous distraction, right so you need to staff up for it you need the attention of very senior people, plus i dont know how many additional people they will need. Now theyre all Big Companies and they can afford it, but the distraction of management time is a little thats unfortunate because, you know, this is what they do they dont do these kinds of projects so, you know, i think guys already alluding to it i think earnings can be okay if theyre good, and if theyre bad, bad, right . Right. So i think it sort of takes some of the upside away from good earnings. You draw this out to the worst case scenario, and that would be some breakup. Is that the worst case . I dont know. I dont know. Im just thinking of one scenario there is an argument to be made you break up some of the companies and actually they might trade higher because you are unlocking sort of a pew play, you are unlocking value. All of a sudden parts of companies will trade as pure plays. Although if you think about the part that is the engine of concern for ftc, doj, dont forget about the house judiciary committee, i dont know you can break up Google Search engine. I dont know that you can break up facebooks platform yes, you could break out instagram. You could break out youtube, and some of the parts i do think we would find this actually to be a very interesting exercise, especially for google and possibly for facebook. The only other thing i would say about this is very ironic that this is coming full bore from all sides. They figured out their lanes theyre coming at it at a time when were essentially fighting chinas desire to build superpower National Champions that will dominate the world like these companies have. And were attacking our own. We are tearing down our biggest and best companies at the time we are fighting this battle over global supremacy. It makes no sense. I think it is a lot of headline noise typically in the past these have been great opportunities to buy on the pull back theres no companyspecific target right now quite frankly, i dont think theres much to do with regards to a breakup of amazon when i look at amazon, you know, the longterm thesis is still intact, right . This is a great company. You look at the high margin businesses like cloud and advertising that are growing like crazy, i still love amazon. By the way on the big full screen we were showing of all of the stocks we didnt have twitter up there twitter is a last move, down by 1. 2 it may not be big in terms of size compared to the others, but in terms of what it does it has sort of a dominant position in that, i mean, nobody else does what they do. Yes, i understand maybe twitters Collateral Damage in this i wouldnt lump them in. I mean, look, we can say it right now. You mentioned the three companies and absolutely the three companies that are clearly in the crosshairs for a number of different reasons, many of which tim alluded to, are facebook, amazon and alphabet. Those are the ones you have to be concerned about if theres ancillary damage to a twitter, thats to me an opportunity. But i understand what mark is saying but, you know, this is pretty draconian headline. You got to read through some of this stuff but to karens point, this doesnt end in a day. Right. This lasts for quite sometime. For more on this lets bring in gene munster of loupe he joins us on the fast line what do you think of the news . The truth will lie several layers behind what the headlines are. I had some flashbacks to may 5th when the trade war escalated, the tensions escalated to china and we tried to extrapolate some of it to apple and it took months to figure it out. I think it is similar here we need to step back and look at the anchoring theme of them. The first is privacy is important. Second is this concept of antitrust. The third is consumers need to be better off. Those three are difficult to get to balance i think for regulators to try to balance all three of those is going to be difficult to have any significant changes on these companies. Absolutely agree, facebook and google are the prime targets here apple, even though it trades at a discounted multiple, it is a company that has the least risk here but if i was going to guess how this plays out, it does have a nominal negative impact on the multiples of google and facebook over the next several months, and i suspect that ultimately theres some changes in terms of how privacy is shared. But i just want to emphasize one last piece here on that consumers better off component, is thats hard to pull off consumers love Free Products like instagram and Google Search the question is will regulators want to break some of these up or further regulate them that may cause fees or more advertising around that. I suspect that will be a difficult hurdle to bring all three of these together. So just to take facebook as an example, since we are expecting facebook earnings after the bell, it is in focus it had a huge run up this year so far, more than 50 . If you think about that, do you think an Ongoing Investigation like this could hamper efforts for facebook to ramp up monetization of some of the other platforms . Absolutely. I think you need to look at judiciously and i think facebook and google, something about how they display their search results, but those two are the most obvious ones. I think most investors, that will have a negative impact on the multiple now, the results tomorrow are going to have a bigger nearterm impact, but undoubtedly this will be, as i think karen was talking about, a hang an overhang on these shares for months to come so if we are to think that monetization of what is happening in instagram, for instance, is pulled back or at a stand pull, and maybe the rollout of libra given the backlash it has faced, is delayed, what kind of discount do you put on facebook that had been banking on all of these things happening at some point in the future . I think when you put it all together, if they cannot pull off or better said, if they cant accelerate some of the other monetizations that you outlined, and the multiples should go from 21 times next year to closer to 10 to 15 times. So i think it can have a material negative. I want to be most clear. This isnt going to happen overnight, but it is if that would be, i think, the one end of things dont tell out well for facebook, how that would play out in terms of stocks. Which company would be the most damaged in your view or is the most vulnerable do you think . Yes, undoubtedly facebook i mean that if i had ten points to distribute who is at most risk here, i would give five of them to facebook, three of them to google, and two of them to amazon and zero to apple. I think theres no risk to apple. All right gene, thanks so much for phoning in we appreciate it thank you gene munster of loup ventures, giving us his analysis on this. Karen, you are a facebook shareholder, apple hareholder. Yes. What do you think of genes evaluation of risk. I love that, that the multiple would be cut in half . Basically. It seems a little much, but theres a lot of money to lose between here and there i dont know i have to think about this and do a so two separate things we have earnings and then we have this. Which is bigger at the moment . Well, earnings i think just for the very short term. All right we kind of had this conversation in our good, bad and ugly yesterday because these were the names so if i look at facebook, the other thing that looks from my understanding, june 3rd was the day that we had the shot to the bow on these names you had facebook down 7. 5 google, 6. 3 since that low by the way, the low was a market bottom. It was a dramatic moment for the market when we had that bad news market has gone on to set new highs, just know that, in terms of how the market could respond to news like this. I realize it is the second or third shot facebook is up 36 from that point, google 10 . We can tell who is suffering under the weight of not only their own issues, but i think a bigger regulatory if thathassle thats a term we can use facebook with that kind of move into earnings, with two big bright lights on them in terms of libre coins and antitrust, facebook i would stay away from. Mark . I think a lot is headline noise, headline risk that could compress the multiples a little bit over the short run, but these are things that take years to play out in court these are still solid companies. I would still be buying them i think earnings are more important right now. Thats what im focusing on. I hope earnings i hope he is right i hope earnings are more fact. I think the fact it will take such a long time, it casts a bit of a shadow for a while. Look, it is about figuring out what the opportunity is. To tims point, the stocks had tremendous runs, at least amazon and facebook you look at amazon, into earnings now, you have to wonder, do you want to try to play it from the long side into earnings with this headline risk out there. It is interesting, quickly gene said facebooks five points out of ten which i sort of get, but you talk about stifling competition. I mean thats been amazon, thats their game. For a long, long time and it is one of the lead lines im reading in the doj headline. Plus theres the political, bezos. No question. You cant think of this administration who went after at t time warner when it was a loser theres another element here. Yes coming up, chipotle, snap, visa all on the move in after hours. Their Conference Calls getting started. We will break down the headlines straight ahead texas instrument, the stock hitting a new high after hitting a blowout quarter. Back now with two more parts of the market that are ready for take breakout. Were live from times square in new york city, much more fast money right after this. Xfinity mobile is a Wireless Network designed to save you money. Whether you use your phone to get fit or to find the perfect gift, youll use less data with a network that automatically connects to millions of wifi hotspots and the best lte everywhere else. So you save hundreds of dollars a year on your wireless bill. Xfinity mobile has the best network. Best devices. Best value. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Click, call or visit a store today. Welcome back to fast money a number of earnings movers after hours. We have chipotle, snap and visa, but one of the biggest movers is texas instruments. Lets get to josh lipton with the latest on the results. I checked in with chris roland here is his take on the quarter. He said there was pentup fear heading in, but said Gross Margins were better than expected at 64. 3 . Q3 guidance he acknowledges a bit below the streets estimates but better than feared it is the first earnings season and he says a decent report. On the call, interesting, executives giving some Historical Perspective here. They note they just completed their Third Quarter of yearonyear declines and say cycles are always different, but typically you would see four to five quarters of such yearonyear declines before growth resumes theyre not trying to forecast the cycle but offer Historical Perspective there. They were asked directly about huawei on the call and they know that huawei represents about 3 of revenuove overall for the pat quarter. They resumed shipments of products for things under compliance they were asked about 5g and said they saw nice growth in 5g products of course, t. What do you make of that . Operating margins came in a little over 41 . The street was looking for 38. 8 . Thats encouraging now, the problem is in my opinion, if you really look, year over year revenue is down, depending on what you look anna log down 12 . Embedded processing, down 21 . Again, the street didnt care with micron, clearly doesnt care here. The good news is operating margin is higher the bad news, the guide wasnt great. The other thing that concerned me is this isnt cheap at close to 21. 5 times forward earnings that said, everybody seems to be in love with the semis right now. Im not sure the negative stuff matters. The read from texas could be valuable. Think it is very valuable remember, texan was the grim reaper on the last one. Last quarter. Yeah. And we were talking about, we were all in the dark on what you were supposed to be doing in the Semi Conductor space there was one report that really sent the pall over the entire sector it was this one the guide was a little better than expected. The street expected 138, midrange of where the new guidance has, yet 142. It has to be encouraging visavis where these guys were. Lets wait and get more news out of the postscript, but i think it is positive. Next guest called the chip rip in leigh may and now back to tell us where the semis are heading from here. Plus two more areas of the market primed for a breakout time to go off the charts with chris verrone. What are you looking at . Lets start with the chips. I think what is most notable about the semi, this is the stocks, basically had 18 months of stefan hototal indifference you started to flirt with new highs in march and april, back to support in the 200, and the ricochet off support to new highs here i think it speaks to the fact it is still a secular market in chip stocks. When you look under the surface, what we like in particular 100 of chips above the 200day moving average the internals are still very firm it reminds us a little bit of the breakout we saw from the chips out of the 2014, 2015, 2016 lull where they broke out and went on for another two years. What else has these characteristics of an improving group, maybe at a consensus and brings us to the trucks. This has been one of the areas the market the street has been negative on over the last couple of years we actually see reasons for improvement here these are the trucks, slowly starting to make higher lows when you look internally, again, you have about 80 of trucks actually back above their 200day average. Thats the highest reading we have seen in almost two years. So the internal setup here is Getting Better so chips, good trucks, improving. I would put banks on this list or at least start to entertain the idea these banks are starting to improve. What has been so notable to us over the last number of weeks, even as bond yields took that last leg lower at about 2 , the financials have quietly started to outperform. Over the last four weeks, banks have outperformed the utes by 800 basis points despite lower yields, a better tone, chips, trucks, banks, we think thats the new leadership starting to show up here chris, why dont you come back over here to the desk jonah with bring a chair over, as he does so well. Great job. Thank you, jonah. Sure. Hey, chris. Whats going on . Chris, this is really good of these are indicators, right, for the overall markets, chips, trucking, banks . Banks, come on. I think it is more of a reflection that after four, five, six months of some pretty tepid leadership, the fabric of this market is starting to change a little bit. Now, we cant say that utes working and staples working was bearish because the market was up 17 in first half of the year my point is it is just changing where you are getting paid what was once defensive is becoming more pro risk i think ultimately it is a good thing. It is not just distinct to the u. S. We are seeing it in europe and in em. Subtly, the more pro

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