The move after reporting results. Noti those Conference Calls kicking off. That one, bige fraud than enron. Allegations about the company, ge, having its worst day in more than a decade after a whistleblower, a highprofile one, called it bigger than enron fraud wise we will have the full fallout we begin with the topsyturvy thursday for your money, wild market swings on wall street she is down, she is up, she is down, she is up. Many investors left with their heads spinning falling yields china headlines, consumer data, all driving big moves. How should investors navigate all of the volatility . Guy, i will start with you it has been a week where we begin with 10 tariffs coming in, market goes down the president then says, well, im going to postpone for some, the market goes up yesterday the yield curve goes negative today back up. First of all how do you deal with in great to have you on board . Nice to be back. The cheapest thing you can do, tyler, you werent here a week or so ago but pedro was sitting on the hook. He said something that resonated with me. Resonated. And you said, youre going to see volatility within volatility i sort of scratched my head but it makes sense you saw it today market is up 100 points. Big deal well, probably had an 800 points up, down, up, down during the day. There were huge swings to answer your questions, if you dont like it thats a problem because i think volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future the vix closed at 22 i think it is going to push towards 30 thats where its crescendoed the last two times the market bottomed out i think well continue to see it what will happen over the next couple of weeks is we have the side ways move that trend lower. Thats where were headed in my opinion, tyler. I get the idea, karen, if you are a trader and you like volatility because you can identify certain things that might give you a target of opportunity and move in, thats one thing. If you are a longterm investor. Right. Following headlines, watching the tweets and every little twitch and twitter of the market, that can be a dangerous thing to do, right no doubt. It is a recipe for disaster. The idea that you will be able to come in at the bottom and buy, right and then you will know when the market is topped out and you will sell and do it really efficiently over and over, thats just not possible so if you know i mean, you know, theres pete who is on one end of the spectrum, you talked about, trading, trading all the time im very much a longterm investor so i generally like these pretty volatile markets when stocks trade down because that tells me Something Else is going on. You can get a bargain. However, lately i have been very concerned it is worse than just some movement in the market, that theres something what tells you that i think that the bond move today, that concerns me. Down below 150. To me the biggest thing is the tariff uncertainty it creates uncertainty, which causes people to not consumers yet, but ceos to pull back that i think causes spending to decline and that ends up being a bad thing. Pete, how have you been playing the volatility within the volatility what have you been doing this week i think you do use opportunities. Karen mentioned some of what i do, some of the trading, but some of the trading is for long term i will give you a great example. When we see the big pushes to the down side and see the volatility that absolutely skyrockets, august 1st we were 1380 by august 5th we were over 24. Now we are trading at 22 on the volatility index today they bought 150,000 vix calls going out into august at the 26 strike. So volatility looks like it wants to hang around, to your point, guy, and volatility within volatility is volatility. I mean it is just crazy. So there are opportunities you sell off on a stock that i think has a better value than where it is sold down to, but if im buying that stock and now i have an implied volatility that gives me room to be able to sell a call that normally trades at a dollar or two thats now trading close to double that, if you look at what has happened with the vix, it gives you more protection to the down side and gives you that much more room to the upside if you are buying stocks and selling calls against it so i think there are great opportunities out there, tyler matter of fact, volumes have been absolutely outrageous in august we are 5 million per day over the average yeartodate in terms of options volume right now. And it is august. Yes, august, which everybody says, hey, everybody is on vacation, everybody is this and that. Stuff happens in august though. Yes. Every year stuff happens in august. It has been very interesting. This august we had three of the biggest percentage, daily moves in the last couple of weeks, of the entire year. I think what is interesting in q4 we got used to 2 , 3 moves and the major averages intraday. It was a different situation i think it is kind of what you were talking about karen you were kind of a little nervous last november for a lot of the same reasons. Here now a lot of the reasons are coming up again. I will just mention this over the last year and a half or so weve had three incremental new highs from the january 2018 high, but we had some quick pullbacks. We had two 7 one, one 12 and a 20 in q4 of 2018. If youre an investor it gives you opportunities to lay into some of your best positions. If it happens right after earnings season where we get a lot of single stock gaps, it gives you the opportunity i will give you examples in the last couple of weeks google, alphabet, a name you own, it had a 10 gap last month after earnings, and then it came in and filled the entire gap if you liked that back then and you were long it then and you liked it when it was up 10 after earnings and now it has filled in the gap, then you should like it just as much right here unless something fundamentally has changed, and it gives you the opportunity to kind of dollar cost average into positions. Thats the one thing this market has given you over the last 19 months for things that you really like to kind of reload and pull back. By the way, tyler, i will add one more thing to the conversation you said how much of a move we had today. We had as big a move in the premarket, before we opened we moved over 800 points if you add we were up, we were down, we came back up again, we pulled back i mean the moves just in the premarket, that was 800 points worth of movement before the day started. Yes. I mean it gives you a little idea, tyler, something we talk about all the time, algorithms, whether it is the upside or down side, we are seeing computers absolutely driving the markets right now. They control it. Absolutely they do. Before i turn back to guy, what have you been doing with your unease . Well, i havent usually buy into markets like this i havent. I am always long protection. I have been scared but selling it because i do think i hear you, volatility absolutely could go higher, but these are the kind of markets that you buy protection for. Yes. 2 1 2 weeks ago, 3 weeks ago the vix was 12 and change. You could buy putts there. Now at 20, it hit close to 24 the other day, 22, 23 yesterday. It you have to sell. Lets take a break and talk more about the wild swings in the market and whether theyre the new reality or novelty it doesnt mean however that you cant find a way to put your money efficiently and our next guest has three ways to play the uncertainty. We will be talking about it. Lets go to the charts with fund strats rob sluymer. Thanks. A tremendous amount of uncertainty as everyone is talking about. The market is volatile, we had a lot of damage happening, a lot of badlooking charts in a short period of time the levels will matter over the next few days as the market comes down and retests the key levels lets talk about a few of them we have the low here thats 2822 that the market needs to hold on this pullback and were coming right down to those levels thats going to be really critical here the next couple of days you have a 200day moving average working its way through here that level is around 2794, pardon me, and that will be critical for folks to focus on but i think the one that will be incredibly important are these two lows, the june low and the may low. So if guy is right, we will get a spike in volatility. We will probably see the market move down to the 27 i believe thats 2728 i think is the low, and that will be really critical as well. Watch those levels the key upside level here is around 2943. Lets step back and take a look at where that plays in a Bigger Picture in the bigger market cycle. We have talked about this many times. We think that the lows in 2016 off that 200week or fouryear moving average is an important cycle low. We thought the same thing here coming off the lows in december. So far it has been a decent call now we are seeing all of this data unwind. Here is what is interesting. In 2016 right in august we saw another peak and this momentum indicator barely rallied halfway up the range and it failed thats exactly what we are seeing here. As we move fthrough the uncertainty, we have brexit and other issues to face, we have a similar pattern going into the balance of q3 where i think we get a lot of churn the correction obviously went into the election and we got the 6 drop towards the end of the move we already have that in place. Again, these levels, that 2822 and 2728, are going to be very, very important i think the market is going to hold at those levels now, how do you play it . Lots of uncertainty. Do you want to be long cyclicals . Do you want to be long defensive or do you want a hybrid . Weve been fans of the Semi Conductors all the way through and now theyre dumbing docomina critical level this level right here is 114 i think this level right here is 107. That will be really important support, and it needs to hold. If it doesnt hold that it is sort of on its way down to the 97, 98 pardon me on the writing there key levels i like it as a long right here it is very high risk it is not for everybody. If you dont like the cyclicals in the market you dont want to play it, but for traders very tight stops. It is an interesting trade i continue to like Semi Conductors into the yearend on the other side lets look at the defensive side, because i think what is happening with gold is really interesting it had a move. We had this move out of this trading range, somewhere around 25, i think this level up here is around 30, 31 it has had a bit of a bounce. Rob, im going to interrupt you if i might because i guess come on back. Just bring him over. The president is making some comments that bear upon the china trade situation and more so lets go down to washington. Retail numbers were announced today which really is a great indicator how well our country is doing, how well our economy is doing those are real numbers that walmart announced, others announced. We had tremendous numbers come out today which im sure you saw, so were very happy about that were doing very well. The economy is incredible. The consumer probably above all else, the consumer is doing incredibly so go ahead. Any questions . [ inaudible ] question ]. Think we are going to have a very long period of wealth and success. Other countries are doing very poorly as you know, china is doing very, very poorly. The tariffs have really bitten into china they havent bitten into us at all, except for the reporters that want to make it look that way but they dont understand what is happening. The tariffs, we have taken in close to 60 billion in tariff money and the consumer has not paid for it. At some point they may have to pay something, but they understand that. And who really understands that is our great farmer. The farmers of this country really understand that they know we had to do something about china, and were doing something about china. With that being said, i think were having very good discussions with china they very much want to make a deal we will see what happens we had a deal and they decided not to make it now i think they would like to have had that opportunity again because i think they really would i think they really missed a great opportunity i think they feel that they missed a great opportunity but china very much wants to make a deal. We are talking to them we will see what happens yes . But why did you feel the need to get involved in the two Congress Womens trips to israel im only involved from the standpoint of they are very antijewish and theyre very antiisrael. I think it is disgraceful the things theyve said. You have lists of this isnt just a oneline mistake. What theyve said about israel and jewish people is a horrible thing, and theyve become the face of the Democrat Party so i did absolutely put out a very strong statement. I think if you look at their language, if you look at what theyve said, if i ever said it, it would be it would be horrible it would be a horrible month to put it mildly. So the things that theyve said, omar, talib, what theyve said is disgraceful so i cant imagine why israel would let them in. But if they want to let them in, they can, but i cant imagine why they would do it. Are you worried a prolonged trade war with china will pitch the economy into a recession no, i think the longer the trade war goes on the weaker china gets and the stronger we get. We are taking in massive amounts of money, billions and billions of dollars, steve, as you know i think the longest it goes the stronger we get. I have a feeling it is going to go fairly short. I think it will be china lost millions of jobs you saw that reported today. Thousands of companies are closing in china, and i dont know, you know, maybe they want to do this for a year. They would love to have somebody like biden who doesnt know what hes doing i mean i just put a clip where he said, oh, we want to build up china, we want to build up china. Well, they gave us a very strong china. China has taken out over 500 billion a year for many years from our country, and thats not going to happen anymore. How concerned are you let me follow up sorry. Okay. How concerned are you about a violent crackdown by the chinese in hong kong i am concerned. I wouldnt want to see a violent crackdown. I put a little bit of a memo out last night these men i like a lot, i get along with them very well, president xi i said that i would be willing to bet if he sat down with the protesters, a group of representative protesters, i bet he would work it out in 15 minutes i bet he would work it out very quickly. I know it is not the kind of thing he does, but i think it wouldnt be a bad idea i really believe if he sat down. They have a certain little leadership pool. If he sat down with the leadership pool, i bet he would work things out really quickly it seems things could be worked out easily. Did you say anything to congressman netanyahu about the Congress Women i think my social Media Statement pretty well speaks for itself i feel that they are so antiisrael, so antijewish, again, if other people made that statement there would have been hell to pay. But i did speak to people over there, yeah. Reporter sir china said that they want to retaliate, that theyre going to retaliate because of the tariffs increase you announced what is your response to that . Well, if they did retaliate, which i dont think they will do because were talking to them and theyre offering things that are very good, i dont think theyll retaliate. But if they did, we have the ultimate form of retaliation i think they would have very few jobs left in china because we would be able to step it up. Just so you understand, i have been very mild about it. Very, very mild. Theres a long way i can go. Somebody had to take on what was happening with china we cant allow china to take out of our country 507 billion every year, not including intellectual property theft and so many other things so were having very good talks with china i think things will happen, but well see. Reporter if they do retaliate, will you want your team to meet with them in september as planned or no look, september, the meeting is still on as i understand it but i think more importantly than september, were talking by phone and were having very productive talks they would like to do something. I will tell you that the talk we had a few days ago with my two representatives, nobody knew what was on that talk except for myself, china and those two people, that was a very good conversation. Reporter do you want jay powell to cut Interest Rates tomorrow jay powell should be cutting rates because every country all over the world is cutting and we want to stay sort of even. I dont mind if were higher we are better, we are a better credit, but we are way too high. Jay powell made a big mistake. He raised them too fast and he also quantitative tightened. He did quantitative tightening it was a big mistake 50 billion a month, and it put us in a position interestingly, even with normalized Interest Rates, president obama was paying nothing and we have a much better economy you have to look at our economy also from the day after my election because we picked up tremendous steam the day after the election thats not attributable to president obama. They only did that because of us when somebody says from january 20th, it is not from january 20th it is from november 9th, the day after the election we picked up the fact that i won lifted our economy greatly. And if i didnt win, it would go down frankly, if for some reason that happened in the 2020 election you will see this economy go down the tubes i will tell you that right now. What are you reporter mr. President , do you have any idea on when china is going to follow through on their ag purchases and crack down on fentanyl they want to follow through very quickly this was part of the conversation that we had they had a special representative actually come over and talk to us, a different group, and a message to me, a very strong message to me. They want to start doing that very quickly i will be honest im not there yet. Reporter did you tell israel it is not china im not there yet. We will see what happens i do want to i would really like to see china in a humane way solve the problem in hong kong, humanely solve the problem in hong kong, and i think they could do it very quickly i said yesterday i really have a lot of confidence in president xi i know that if he sat down with their representatives, i have no doubt he would solve the problem quickly. Reporter in your conversations with people connected with israel, did you encourage them to reject the Congress Women no, i dont encourage or discourage i think if israel allowed them to come in for the normal reasons, other than those reasons, i really believe it would be a terrible thing for israel i think it would show a terrible sign they want to do boycotts they said horrible things about jewish people. They said horrible things about israel and israelis. I think it would be a terrible thing frankly for israel to let these two people who speak so badly about israel come in, and they have become amazingly the face of the democrats