We will dig in and follow every move the cbo out today saying the deficit will increase more than earl remember forecast as david said, retail strengths, lowes up t. Target up, more signs of spending from the consumer charlie, welcome this is your kind of rally day any great reason behind it the American Economy continuing to be 70 consumer form the consumer is in very good shape he walmart had seals up almost 3 , target, home depot showing strong results its very hard to have a recession with dropping unemployment, rising wages and strong consumer spending, and yet some of the members of the fed want to cut 50 basis appoints, double what they did. I dont think theyll succeed. I think theres just as many that dont want a cut at all we need to keep bullets in the gun, this is not the time to be cutting rates in the middle of a Strong Economy frankly i think the president s tweets actually decrease the chance of a cut. Nobody on the fed wants to look like theyre bowing to his whim. Lots to dig into today. Ylan mui is on the fed eamon javers on the president s recent comments, and bob pisani looks at the other big rally ylan, lets start with you. The fed shows three broad reasons, one the slowdown in complicate growth. Second, prudent risk mpgt and inflation is still below the feds 2 target. A couple officials wanted an even they also wanted to maintain optionality in deciding when and whether to cut rates again. Y t. Ylan, thank you eamon . Reporter yesterday one tone on taxes today an entirely different tone i think i have an answer to that question what im told is before the president came out to talk to reporters, staffers briefed him on just how much traction he comments had gotten on taxes yesterday and the speculation that set off the president didnt want that to get out of control. He said im going to put a stop to that and went on the deliberately in order to shut down the speculation that hes about to do some major income or tax effort of any kind really. So thats why he said this, indexes Capital Gains just a short time ago im not looking to do indexes. I think it would be perceived as somewhat elitist i want taxes for the middle class, the workers, the people who work so hard. Reporter so the president says on indexing, he doesnt want to do that for elite. The president came out to delivered, and he did it. Eamon, thank you. Sounds like for political reasons. Some said he wasnt, and now he said he isnt. The democrats are running on the idea hes helping the rich we also got a pretty dire read on our fiscal prediction. Theyre not buying everywhere walmart and target beat analyst expectations across the board, increased annual guidance, even despite tariff headwinds both have invested billions do offer shoppers more choices lowes and home depot, theyre also improving store and website integrate. Macys had a wide misstep, so it had to deeply discount to sell it tapestrys kate spade Division Much worse than expected and general remains pewed tapestry shares have sold off fairly sharply in the last week. Thank you, courtney were not quite moving in lock step, a come the dow movers here, again for the second day in a roa road. Johnson and johnson, im not sure if this is the start of a trend yet. I think banks are much more interesting. Yields have been all over the place, at the 2 10 spread flattens, maybe invertebrae in some cases. Industrials stiff off their highing. Wire trying to get over about 29 2940. Were only 3 away from that number guys, back to you. Bob, heart to believing the dow, as bob mentioned, is off the highs of is the session, with about 53 minutes until the closing bell a pretty nice rally going on were also on yield loss again for about the second time in a week, this is a technical recession indicator. We saw it briefly we didnt see it close there last time, but were watching a spread the fed didnt indicate that its on the brinken an aggressive easing cycle. And maybe the market is pushing for more with this sort of lower yields though we know there are two members at least who believe that rates should not go any lower. Whats your big takeaway from the fed minutes the fed takeaway is that it was july 31st before the august 1st announcement, and i think that the impulse not to raise and to way and see will flip over to the other side we actually see another rate cut in september, precisely because of the uncertainty thats caused by the tariffs we dont see that going away anytime soon so youre positive, how do you explain the yield curve . I dont think that the bond market is allseeing, has the ability to predict recessions that nobody else has we were hearing this in the Fourth Quarter i was hearing a lot about yield curving in the Fourth Quarter and were up 17 from there. I dont lose a lot of absolute i think frankly longterm yields are way too low. So the long end of the curve needs to go up. So alicia, is it different this time in terms of how we should view an inverted yield curve, though it maybe take place again . Its really a great question, in a sense the inversion is due to technical reasons the global bond market were up to 16 trillion, and where else are you going to go except for the u. S. Market we have all these flowing pushing down yields. Nevertheless, the question remains, even if its a technical signal, does the fed have to react anyway, means does the inversion itself signal that t the. You dont agree with that at all . No. I apologize, thats the general consensus, i agree were staring at trillion dollar deficits we are staring at lots of things that should going to produce inflation. We are getting higher wages, tight labor markets, a president who is trying to talk down the dollar we have a lot of things that are potentially dangerous for inflation, and the last number, exfood and energy was up more than 2 . I do not think this is you didnt even mention tariffs. Yes, tariffs will add to prices. I just wanted to give you another one. Theres a long list. I think theyre not going up any faster to the extent they are, is there a way out if youre the ecb . Yeah, the ecb is pushing on a string we saw the found of fiscal stimulus would be a great first step in reseriousing the they miss price assets. You have zombie because the debt simply doesnt default, so it just really doesnt help the real economy in any sense. To the extend that 90 of all yielding instruments, arent we going to pressure on bonds thats why we think that that you should be well diversified. We could see yields going lower here so charlie, what is the strategy on equities so if we think equities are a lot better buy than bonds, we think frankly there are no good values in longterm bonds. If youre buying any bond more than a muir of three, four years, youre getting a negative return if you are afraid of the stock market, you should put your money in cash. You could even consider gold, but do not put your money rushing into 30year german debt. With a zero percent yield, which didnt sell, by the way. That auction failed. That is a sign that people are not going to accept negative returns forever. If cyclical stocks you like theyre the cheapest. Right now what people are overpaying for is the safety the stocks whats cheap is everybody is aphrase of recessions, so industrials and some Consumer Discretionary stocks are what is a good value right now. Have we put in the bottom in yields i see volt tilt in the next six weeks. We have a lot of headlines, weve got a fed meeting, we have tariffs, we have brexit and the v. A. T. Tax in japan, which is affecting the economy there, and not in a positive way. So a lot of he negative headlines, pushing down our yield, so you have some volatility you saw in the stock market here, the inversion created the selloff with al go ritz mick trading could excuse the stock selloff. The question is when does that bound boo edge into the real economy. For the First Time Since the late 90s. One thingsing that interesting is yields are higher, and stocks are higher. I mean because of since the economy is going to be stronger. The yield curve could push us the other way. Right now the stock market would like to see a Strong Economy. Alisha levine, thank you for joining us charlie is with us for the hour. We have about 45 minutes left to go before the close. Lets checkin on this market the tenyear trading 158 or so every sector positive, so you are continuing that relationship, Consumer Discretionary in the lead, thanks to results from home depot, lowes, big winners today. Well also drying into some of those drastic moves in the Retail Stocks, lowes, target also just a beast today. We also have seen sharp swings in macys walmart, and looking ahead to in order 12r078, l brands are both mall based. Theyve been on the losing end of the retail trades heres a check our on data tracker, home data came in longnger than expected csi bell back in a moment, the dow is up 225. soft music when i see obstacles, i create opportunities. When i see adversity, i find a way. When i hear never, i say now. [announcer] Southern New Hampshire university is education made to fit your goals with over 200 degree programs, flexible class schedules, and some of the lowest online tuition rates in the nation. cheering so when i face barriers, i can break through. [announcer] breakthrough at snhu. Edu. Are we supposed to dance . Boy boy bands without dancing are just ok. Get a better than just ok unlimited plan with spotify premium included on americas best network. Only from at t. More for your thing. Thats our thing. We are very close to another inversion of the 2 20s spread, which is classically and historically a recession indicator. We inverted last week, came back, and under a basis point almost now all right. Speaking of shorting things or going long mike santoli as todays market dashboard. You can play it either way, looking to drive home the next couple hours, oneway traffic. The market if you look, the stocks have been moving in the same direction heavy moves, thats about big retailers. Congestion ahead, a goodlooking at the chart, maybe youll provide some friction for this rally, and then reduced speed zone this is about a slowdown deceleration oneway trades the average number of s p 500 stocks that are moving in the same direction on a given day. This is the 15day average essential if youre up by over 400, it means more than 80 are either up or down on a given day. You see it spike up here in a few spots. Its when the market is trading in a very macro fashion, when its responding to Something Like bond yields, Something Like currencies as opposed to individual corporate needs these are highstress moments for the market can you go back and look, this is early 2016, so typically its more indicative of a tape thats not really in earnings season. Its kind of a oneway trade into equities, out of equities what we have seen is this spike up today, by the way, about 380, under 400, most stocks today have been up with this rally, one way to gauge whether the market is focused on individual names or the big picture, uys. How do those moments at the time kale break . Closer to lows than to highs. Essential when the market has essential sold off quickly, in one of these highfever moments, thats when you typically see this happy you see them cluster you could you bess in a period where you kept going into this mode michael, see you in just a bit. Eamonafter has details on the president. This is on Student Loan Debt. The president speaking to a vet rants group in kentucky, saying he signed a memorandum, and describes the memorandum this way regarding student loan dead for permanently disabled veterans the memorandum directs the department of education to eliminate any penny of student lot dead by veterans completely and permanently disabled we dont have details on how that would work and who might be the beneficiaries. The white house is telling reporters who are on the scene that its going to the provide more facts and figures on exactly what this program is, but a new program and Initiative Announced by the president , which he says will eliminate every penny of federal Student Loan Debt for those veterans who are permanently disabled, sarah. Thank you for the update. Until 40 minutes to go before the bell. We have 29 out of 30 dow stocks higher, walmart the only one in the red s. Nike and boeing leading the charge we are on the brink are potential inverting again. It was a big deal. We were both on vacation. Separately. Yeah. Pluls pressure on faang, a few states considering their own antitrust probe. Were going to talk to jeff landry about what exactly theyre looking into. The white house has floated a number of tax breaks as a weigh to boost the economy, though the president just walked those back, what, in the last hour or two. Well talk to jim nussle about what the president could do without congresss approval. Welcome back to closing bell. Time to get the word on the seats. Initiating coverage on the oil imagines, giving chevron and bp an outperform. Barclays has also in additioned ash did she have ron tops the list, pepsico, and out with the Hedge Fund Trend monitor note finding that hedge funds are rotating into Health Care Amazon far and away the favorite take your pick, how about Consumer Discretionary, charlie . I didnt love their favorite, t. J. Maxx, which i think is a name challenged. I do like altria our ceo is on the board of nike, so we cant talk about it, but the public numbers are already positive to people like nike the consumer is in great shape its hard to have a recession with a very strong consumer. Nothing concerns you about the consumers . I cant say nothing, but broadly speaking we have real wage growth. The high end is doing extremely well frankly, is the quintile is the bottom quintile from a egalitarian point of view wonderful, and frankly good for the economy. Dot miss the deliver alpha conversation the biggest names in investment and finance, tickets are on sale right now. A. Okay we have about 33 minute toss go before we get to the close today. All the markets, as you see, are up we have your lastchance trade before the close. And the state a. G. From louisiana joins us a group of states are looking toauhi an investigation into big tech. That when closing bell returns. I dont know whats going on. Ive done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. Ive even built my own historic trading model. And youre still not sure if you want to make the trade . Exactly. Sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. Is there a cure . Td ameritrades trade desk. They can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. Sounds perfect. See, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, ive done my job. Call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. The trading driving action minutessh and the markets did move a bit on that weve been monitoring. The cbo says the deficit will increase more that previously forecast it does quantify the drag on the real economy with tariffs as well retail strength this morning and the rest of the day, lowes up, target shares up 20 , certainly signs the consumer continuing to be strong at least when it comes to those names, not necessarily reflective broad ly after the bell well see how it is sue herera has a news update heres whats happening at this hour at the white house this morning, before leaving for an event in kentucky, President Trump said he did not appreciate denmarks rejection of his idea to buy greenland. I looked forward to going, but i thought the prime ministers statements that was it was absurd, it was an abe suridea was nasty, i thought it was an inappropriate statement all she had to do is say, no, we wouldnt be interested. Pope Francis Holding his weekly audience. He did not comment on the situation can Cardinal George pell, though the vatican has acknowledge knowledged a courts dismissal of the appeal. The weight of a dump truck proved too much. The truck partially going through the concrete to the level below. It happened in quincy, luckily no injuries reported. And just missed those cars. Amazing. Sara, back downtown to you mike we have the outside moves in both target and lowes stocks obviously in response to strong earnings report. They are the number two player in a very big retail category basically all investor have decided its almost a winner take all closing the gap today in terms of forward p. E. , so you see this big persistent target, while wall matt has been sort of aclimbed as the winner its still trading around a market multiple, and look at lowes and home depot, a little less dramatic, home depot has been assigned a premium, its buying back a ton of stock, well above the s p multiple here finally you do see a bit of reversion there, but still, still that gap suggests that the consumer has enough juice i think to go around for at least these big dominant big box players. Mike, thank does that make you want to buy target and lowes . We prefer to play the concept of the omnichannel through zebra technology, which is barcodes and scanners and readers. People need to track every sku walmart and target numbers were all about omnichannel. Reports that multiple state attorneys officials are considering a investigation, adding scrutiny to tech companies, which are already being probed by the doj he is jeff landry, louisianas attorney general thank you for joining us thank you for having me. Why are you doing this well, about 18 months ago, many attorneys general from around the country started ringing alarm bells there were certainly practices that big tech was engaged in that were problematic. We started discussing those. In fact over a year ago all of the attorneys general met in portland, oregon, where we had some experts in the Tech Industry come and talk to us about some of the activity that we thought was problematic, ultimately harmful to consumers. We met with attorney general Jeff Sessions at the time, and trying to determine if the conduct out there is problematic to the consumer, and whether it would take action to remedy it for the most part, we have heard a lot of rhetoric from big tech, but no action. So were going to continue to move down the path to make sure we protect the consumer. What does that mean . Weve said that everything is on the table we no he as lawyers that litigation is the last option. We would prefer to and theres a multitude of part