Since the great recession. Is now the time to start worrying we asked this question because we said it only lasted a couple of hours, no big deal. Here we are, two weeks later it has been at, near or inverted for the past two weeks. Although. 3 back in may. Three months ago, true. Now we have all of these indicators flashing recession, recession, recession should we you should always be worried i think, but i think with worrying comes pete uses the word all the time, trading opportunities. I think thats what you have now. He said something a couple of weeks ago, stay with me, the volatility will be volatile. I agree with that. I will Say Something that ive been pretty steadfast, i think the market will bottom, s p 500, when the vix prints. I think the trend will continue to be lower for all of the reasons you mentioned. There are other reasons as well. It is not just the u. S. china trade. Quite frankly, it is not just this inverted yield curve. Other things are going on as well the market just seems a little tired here, and you go back and look at the way facebook reacted after they reported a couple of weeks ago. You look at the way amazon reacted when it reported, and to a certain extent, although not nearly as much, apple as well. I think stocks have been trying to tell you something. The russell has been trying to tell you something i think, again, the s p is headed towards lower. It was trying to tell you something big. It traded today, closed at a low it has not traded at since january, late january. So down 16. 5 from the highs i think it has been selling you something similar to what the banks are telling you too. Look at the price action of the banks today. They opened up when the market was green but went red quickly and stayed down. A really a lot of them, citibank, bank of america are setting on support levels. It is one group that does not like the inverted yield curve. If you look how they acted since that happened here so to me i think you have i just say i mean the irony of that. I think you are right. If you overlay tenyear bond yield, the tenyear treasury against small caps or retail, the two parts of the economy that have so far not rolled over even though those are parts of the market that have again, the country is based upon the Small Business largely if you think about that, they should be feeling very good. Americans confident in going out to get a new job right now is getting them to spend and right now that part of the economy is doing fine. Pete . I have to tell you, guy, you were talking about volatility. Yes, it has been extremely volatile i expect it to continue. I dont know why we wont see even bigger fluctuations as we watch the market because right now we have little volume in the market if you look at the last six days shall and i talked about this earlier, but 5 million under our daily average on the Derivatives Market right now the volumes are not there. What is it telling you these moves could get more exaggerated. I think it will be something interesting, along with the algos that kick in but youre right. When we are trading at 20. 5 on the vix right now, why couldnt it spike up more we are a tweet away from seeing a volatility index heading towards 30 in my opinion now, we saw it get up towards 24 i think we get any kind of a break to the down side, we will see a monster, but it will create opportunity there always will be opportunity i think in this market we have gone through the earning season for the most part we know what the companies are looking at, what theyre projecting Going Forward because of that, it gives us great opportunity to look and find the names. We have been talking about. 2 as an indicator. Our next guest is looking at Something Else chief economist and strategist David Rosenberg tweeting today, we now have had three months of a threemonth tenyear yield curve inversion. The track record this has had in predicting recesses, 100 . Wow. Joining us now is David Rosenberg. So, david, we understand that you think that a recession is already here youre also the strategist w mentioned. What do you do if you are in that camp, if you believe that well, look, the yield curve inversion leads the economy, so i didnt say the recession is actually starting right now and i think that everybody is quite correct, it is hard to get an early recession when the consumer is still spending you know, that is still the case i think the question we want to answer as economists is in three, six, nine or twelve months, what is the shape of the consumer going to look like . The consumer doesnt operate in isolation of the other parts of the economy any more than the u. S. Economy operates in isolation from what is happening around the world it is just a case of the lags. Now, look, im a Firm Believer in the yield curve, but it is not the only indicator around. You have so many other confirmations out there. If you concocted a cyclical sock index from the s p 500, which weve done, we are almost back in bear market territory if you look at the base metals from the crb, we areost back in bear market testimony you have other market indicators right now actually telling you that a reces not going to say necessarily baked in the cake just yet, but that the risks are extremely high and theyre on the rise. Thats, i think, the message from the yield curve, is just that confirmation indicator from Everything Else were seeing right now. So in terms of the consumer, david, a consumer that is confederate, a consumer that continues to spend, so far at least, what do you look at around the consumer that could impact that behavior and bring that major part of the u. S. Economy down or slow that down well, i think that when we start to see a situation where employment growth slows sufficiently that you start getting a rise in the Unemployment Rate on a sustained basis, thats going to lead to a decay in wage growth and thats going to have an impact on Consumer Spending right there. We have already seen if the jolt data is although firings are extremely low and companies are holding on to Skilled Labor because of the shortage of Skilled Labor out there, that we also have a situation where hirings are actually dissipating. So the question is not even if payroll is going negative, but slow enough, Household Employment slows enough that unemployment goes up, i think it will be a signal for weaker wage growth ahead, and thats one of the indicators you will be looking for. Everybody is waxing about todays Consumer Confidence report, and what i find is that people look at the headline and then pontiff indicate aboicate great the index was. Remember, theres two components, and the expected index rolled over in august. When you are looking, for example, at expectations of employment, it was weaker. Expectations of labor income, it was weaker when you are taking a look at buying household appliances, they rolled over the expectation components of the confidence surveys do a better job leading the consumer than the headline indices everybody gazes a. I would say that the internals behind the report today didnt leave me with a warm and fuzzy feeling for Consumer Spending in the next few months. David, we were talking about the russell 2000 small cap stocks in an earnings recession right now. I heard you talk about bbb debt, corporate debt lets move away from treasuries where we are spending time talking about the inversion, and you had the concern you think theres a potential for a lot of that to go to junk, which would be bigger than sub prime in the under performance in the russell 2000 telling us something about highyield debt and something that investors should keep their eye on that theyre not paying attention to as we think about the treasury yield inversion . I think it is a great point, because ordinarily you would be seeing that the mega caps or large cap multinational exporters that are so susceptible to what is happening in the trade side would be the areas underperforming, and if the small caps, which have much more domestic economy content to them so i think the point is very welltaken that a lot of this is actually coming from a recession, if you want, or certainly a very significant weakening in Capital Spending in the united states. Now, actually cap x is weakening around the world and part of that is related to the general heightened geopolitical trade uncertainty, but i would say actually at the beginning of the year in my report was that the big rip for the economy was if we dont see the bbbs get downgraded into junk, looking at how over extended their Balance Sheets are and looking at the start of a huge refinancing calendar, Something Else was going to happen. Why have we not seen, for example, bbbs get downgraded why havent the delinquency rates gone up . Because companies are deleveraging and paying down debt nothing wrong with going on a debt diet, but it comes at the extent of something called aggregate demand growth, which is gdp i think the big surprise this year would be we hung in reasonably well. On the other side Capital Spending has been weak, and todays durable added to that, and the view for Capital Spending so the other dynamic of debt deleveraging coming at the expense look, by the way, it is not just coming at the extent of Capital Spending. All of a sudden stock buy backs are starting to subside as well. I say it is encouraging we are not seeing the crisis of fallen angels, bbbs getting downgraded. What comes up the other side is the leveraging cycle, which comes at the expense of economic activity. David, thank you so much. We have breaking news so we have to run that breaking news on peloton. Leslie pickers has the story leslie. Reporter hey, melissa. Peloton revealing the filing, especially catapulting its ipo in motion with placeholder of about 500 million for a offering inevitably that number will change as it gets closer to the launch date. Digging into the financials here, some really interesting stuff. 915 million in revenue for 2019 they break it out in terms of fitness products, subscription and other. That number though, that topline number doubling year over year, on losses of about 200 million over that time frame. 511,000 connected fitness subscribers in 2019, and they say the average net monthly connected fitness churn is about. 65 for 2019. They did file with a dual class share structure, 20 votes for class c shares class a gets one vote. The Bank Managing the deal is Goldman Sachs and jp morgan. Leading this one now reportedly theyre seeking about double the valuation from the latest round, which where they were valued at about 4 billion. So far theyve raised about a billion dollars in venture capital, of course, noting in full diss closure that comcast and nbc both have a stake in peloton, the Parent Company of cnbc if you recall, they confidentially filed in june this revelation of the filing today means they have to wait about 15 days before they can officially launch their ipo process in a roadshow, meeting with investors and so forth. They need to wait at least two weeks to do that before we start to see movement there. It means it will come back in two weeks later, we could see a listing if the process moves as quickly as possible, but time will tell. Otherwise, still digging through this multihundred page filing so we will let you know if we learn anything else interesting. Back over to you. I want to ask you about the key metrics theyre using. You mentioned average monthly connected. Do they have per user i mean im trying to understand the benchmark. Yes, the economics here so we havent gone through the entirety of the filing to get down to the Unit Economics yet, but we will dig through it and let you know that exact answer to that question and how much each person pays but it is worth noting that, you know, this Company Operates as both a Hardware Company and a Software Company. Right. So if you buy the bike, say, for 2,000, you are still paying about 40 each month for that service, that subscription fee on top of that it will be interesting to see how investors value it from that standpoint. Unless you at a gm. Gym pays for it and you log in. Exactly s w thats why i asked how much revenue per user. Thats a good question. I will let you go through the filing what do you make of it i am a huge peloton fan. As am i. When you say that, it is like when you go to best buy and you sort of window shop and then you buy it online, thats the same thing no, it is not. When you go to the gym and log on. Peloton is being paid for by the gym. Planet fitness. I log in, nothing wrong with that. Not that Planet Fitness is a good comp, but the stock was 20 stock, traded up to 80, 60 now i think peloton has better growth you pay about 500 a year for the subscription and people love the product and the treadmill is better than the bike. What is the comp . I dont know if we have it. Again, it is another one of these sectors where you are creating, i dont know, fitness as a service so if i may . You have a dynamic here where Planet Fitness costs 10 a month. You can do a digital app for 20. It is easier to log into the digital app, even though you would think theres a bigger bargain in the 10 Planet Fitness. I think theres a limit how much they can grow. 8 billion from 4 billion last year, thats the real key. Having the metrics to see whether theyre i dont know. Bottom line is we still need to see the numbers. Gold and silver shining bright today, but one technician says the charts are showing cracks in the metal trade. He will explain. Plus, why one strategist says the biggest bubble is about to burst. He will tell us what that means as the obsession with the ceiogrips the market more fast money right after this do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging . Prevagen is the number one pharmacistrecommended memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Welcome back to fast money. Gold getting a bid while silver hit an alltime high while stocks fell. Theyre betting gold is about to bounce higher. The next guest says that the metals are about to lose their shine. Lets go off the charts with chris verrone. Take it away. Thanks, melissa when you look at the gold chart it is hard not to like it. You have come out of the big base, in a sevenyear bear market we know it turned, but our concern tactically is how stretched gold has become. About 16 above its 200day moving average, the most stretched we have seen in a number of years. So i think if you are long gold here, you have to think about hedging the position what i want to show you here is the shortterm shot. This is just this year were showing gold with its 20day moving average, which has been support here, support earlier in the year, and it is where we broke out from in the middle part of the year. I think if gold correction or if gold is going to pull back here, that 20day moving average is going to be your line in the sand you start to break that, i think it risks something deeper, maybe back into that 14. 40, 14. 30 range. I think ultimately the longterm chart is okay. It is the shortterm picture, how stretched it is, that has us worried. Sentiment has gotten very aggressive these are rolling threemonth slows into the gld they have absolutely surged over the last number of weeks this is a crowded trade. It is stretched. I think sell some calls, buy some puts, protect the position here if we look at silver, it is a similar situation except one change silver for the first time this entire cycle, it under performed gold, it is starting to turn here i think in relative terms owning silver over gold may make some sense here what i want to be mindful of when you think about gold, it is the same trade this year as utilities, plus 20 , bonds, plus 20 , gold, plus 20 . So i think if were going to start to see some cracks in gold, i would suspect we see cracks in those others as well longer term we know the chart is fantastic. It is about what do we do in the short term we think it is too stretched hedge. Chris, come on over jonah will bring the chair in. Yeomans work by jonah. Bringing the chair in yes. Nice shape. Even in the short term we see a pull back in the safety trades, does it mean we see a bounceback shortterm in some of the other sectors that have lagged im not sure i want to go that far yet. Okay. I think when you look at what has been so telling about the last number of weeks, despite gold overbought, despite bonds overbought, despite utilities overbrought, we havent seen the kratch yet you have to use some of the stops. The 20day moving average on gold has been support all year long you will get a deeper pull back in gold, it probably starts with a violation of some of the levels. If you see gold silver ratio starting again, you started to talk about silver is outperforming as it should we got to basically alltime lows on silver gold. Is it indicative of a change in risk profile you know, it might be silver outperforming gold is a little more of an industrial. Yes. Im curious if that may at least be a similar message to what we are seeing in surprises. Economic surprises start to turn up here. I would be curious if copper could start to get a bit of a bid here as well theres record shorts in copper right now. It is a bad chart but theres record shorts. I think we need to be careful in this environment are position is too extreme. Could there be something with gold we mentioned the Deutsche Bank note with the Political Uncertainty and with Central Banks, theres fewer alternatives to the dollar be the safe haven so theyre compelled to go into gold. No question. I hate to say things are different this time around, but could they be . Yes if you look over the last 18 months or so, Central Banks have been absolute