Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240714 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 14, 2024

And then in europe youre going to see equity futures there also to the upside this morning, gains across the board of better than 1 . Its up a third of a percent and stocks in italy up by 1. 5 breaking news happening moments ago, hong kong leader has now announced the official withdrawal of the extradition bill that sparked months of mass protests there its one of five demands including universal suffrage in the citys elections it sparked a late night rally in hong kong with stocks closing higher by nearly 4 youre looking at the stock chart right there. A loif report from hong kong in a couple of minutes. The other big global story is a political Crisis Brewing in the u. K. He joins us to explain the situation to app american audience that isnt necessarily familiar with the parliamentary procedure. This is not for me this is not for me this is for certain individuals that may not understand what is going on there but go slowly just in case i want to pick up a few of the nuisances and whats happening. Okay. So for two years teresa mays government tried to find a deal so the u. K. Could leave in march. She did find a deal but parliament rejected the deal and extended the deadline from march through to the end of october. Teresa may eventually resigned and Boris Johnson took over as Prime Minister yesterday, parliament came back from its summer break and because hes trying to suspend Parliament Next Week for five weeks getting closer and closer to the october deadline, parliament rushed through a emergency debate to take control of its own schedule. Today the schedule normally controlled by the government today theyll introduce legislation that will seek to block the possibility of a no deal brexit. Boris johnson wants to have that possibility because he thinks that will force the European Union to make concessions because of the economic damage from a no deal brexit but now he wants an election. The problem is he lost his governing majority in the house of commons because one of the Party Members defected to the opposition now he has the majority and hes in power and not in control which means he cant hold the election unless they allow him to they wont allow that to happen until this passes through parliament successfully. I got it. The whole notion is interesting. He doesnt want a no deal brexit he just wants to be able to negotiate the terms of the no deal brexit but when you tell people in the eu, im going to pretend were going to have a no deal but im trying to put pressure on you to give me some things that you want, i dont know, the whole thing seems like a dance and im not sure what finally happened but thank you for the explainer. I was taking notes as i always said, all of our friends in the u. K. Are going to love this but we have copies of the constitution, do you know what i mean . We have xerox them although thats an old term. Send it over. I dont think we would charge that much if theyd like to see how things should be done and adopt our form of government over there and we could all be on the same page tell me italy wouldnt do a little bit better instead of having 16 leaders in 14 months. Pasta is so good. Youre right. Youre right and france. Who cares about all of that other stuff with those rich creamy sauces. Right . Get your priorities straight. You got to get your priorities straight. The wine, Everything Else. How many pages is the constitution i mean in current bring it in and give it to boris. Another big driver for the markets. A long weekend over the Labor Day Weekend in which we saw escalation by the u. S. Side and retaliation by the chinese side. The president tweeting out this yesterday saying that were doing very well in our negotiations from china. Hes sure that china would love to weight him out and deal with another administration and if they do, he said if he wins the deal would get much tougher for the chinese. Meanwhile, chinas supply chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone. Later in the day yesterday we got the ism manufacturing number sinking to 49. 1 signaling a contraction in the Manufacturing Sector may be underway we saw a response to that from jay timmons. Hes the head of the National Association of manufacturers manufacturers have also warned the trade uncertainty would effect our industry. Heres what manufacturers need the trade deal, turn the trade war with china into a trade deal with china and reauthorize the Exportimport Bank so the manufacturers there suggesting theres global slowing going on but also saying they want to turn this trade war with china into a trade deal with china as they watch whats happening in the Manufacturing Sector, guys the political challenge now for the president based on that ism number from president is that the president has said the entire purpose of this trade war is to defend American Manufacturing. If thats contracting anyway, the president has to now explain to voters and to investors around the world why that is happening even though hes taking the steps that hes taking right now to defend American Manufacturing. Its shorttermlongterm although we dont know what the longterm is going to be. The president said again and again in the longterm, American Manufacturing will be better for this in the shortterm he acknowledges there may be pain for americans although he says theres going to be more for the chinese. But he seems to be willing to tolerate that pain for now. Thats tail on the dog, chicken and egg. I got a lot of them. We cant necessarily be blamed for all the economic weakness in the rest of the globe, or can we the rest of the economies were pretty slow. They had negative Interest Rates. Maybe you can point it back as well. This ism number, the manufacturing, its really due to just global slowing. Right. And then the critics said well look the global slowing is due to the trade war. Right. So which came first i go back to nixon when all of this started if you really want to know nixon resigned and sort of disgrace. Sort of disgrace. Well, in hindsight, seriously. Ive seen worse. So nixon is what . Maybe we have. Nixon went to china, you know, speaking of china. He did. Did a lot of good things he had a cute dog, checkers. So then you go to jimmy carter and jimmy carter is oh my god, what happened and then you bring in reagan. Lets not go through all of this stuff. You werent around for half of it i dont think even though you have that wising gray hair. Im dying the gray in. Some people would say that president obama benefitted from some of the mistakes george bush and then how do you explain trump getting elected . Seriously. Thats a really good question, joe. Do you know what, every once in awhile, i like that heres the thing and what the president says about this is that hes dealing with all the legacy of all of those president s that you just mentioned. They got us into this hole in terms of manufacturing and the Industrial Base and chinas ascension and didnt do anything about it for decades and decades. He says hes the president that finally has to deal with it. He joked, right he looked up to heaven and said im the chosen one i have to deal with this but hes serious what he means is generationally this has fallen in his lap its a problem he has to deal with. Well, its amazing that theres still support. I think theres a majority of support for dealing with china. Its amazing. Anyway, all right joining us now theyre not all distinct appearances and the last three or four times you have been on have you evolved in your view of what investors should be doing now. We came into this year with a strong risk on bias and globally large, small, u. S. And nonu. S. Em commodity credits and in reaction to what we thought was the market going too far in the sell off in the Fourth Quarter that we were not expecting recession. Were expecting soft landing cat liez the fed moving to much more dovish Monetary Policy and strong stimulus in china we have been dialing back that risk exposure as the year has gone on as markets are rallied and by the end of june coming into the Third Quarter we went to neutral at the overall market beta or market exposure level focussing on areas where we saw good value but not wanting to take significant directional risk the s p was up about 20 over 17 times forward earnings we felt valuations fully and probably more than reflected good news that could come out. We wanted to see earnings and resolutions of the tail risks that were coming up. Trade, brexit, et cetera. Where does that leave us then were still neutral at the overall directional level. Theres more of the same to come in terms of volatility were not going to get clarity on corporate earnings on the path of Economic Growth. Our base case is still the soft landing but we need to see more evidence of it and we need to see the resolution of the geopolitical tail risks. We got good news overnight it takes an external stressor off of the talks i dont think they wanted to tie in issues around hong kong and impressive response. Take a harder line. Then wed have to take a harder line. It reduces our freedom of negotiation. So this opens the door for continued discussions. Some opportunity for compromise and the same time as the president continues to be very aggressive on the trade front which is why we think theres more volatility to come before we get greater clarity is that really what people are in the streets for at this point . I know. They have their five. Yeah. Deep down its overall thats the point. Overall arab springtype freedom. Apparently theres some people from Mainland China joining in and hong kong and if that spreads, who knows. From the chinese perspective, i understand from the American Perspective it doesnt put us in a difficult position where we have to take hard lines that we may not want to take from the chinese perspective maybe theyll be less willing to give on certain fronts because they feel like we dont have anything. One of them is direct democracy. Thats unlikely to be realized or satisfied looking for an opportunity to return to normal the thinking here is that this gives the Chinese Government a card to say look were trying to get things back to normal. Protestors go back to school. Its what the Business Community wants around the globe. Indeed. The soft landing, so thats in the bag were still confident but theres still risk to it our view is that the u. S. Was going to go to trend line growth thats 2 ish per year and thats where we appear to be for the Third Quarter. Thats where we have been first or Second Quarter of this year the Manufacturing Sector, we saw it overnight and you just talk about them and at the same time, the consumer is extremely strong employment levels where they are. Thats 70 of this economy as long as the consumer is employed wages are ticking up its hard for the u. S. Economy to go into recession. The most important statics are the jobs and Employment Statistics and were get more information on friday. Next time, bring in some milk or ice cream thats not you its cheese and ice cream from wisconsin, minnesota, thats my homeland not in my family though. My son is lactose intolerant. Really . The pain, right we figured it out. What do you do . Soy . We do soy and almond milk and sorbet rather than ice cream we do a little pizza what can happen do you grow out of that eventually were hoping he hes hoping he grows out of it but i dont know a lot of people dont. And twins. And only one. And not you. Not you. Im surprised quite frankly. With all my other problems. Were watching shares of google this morning take a look right now because the company is the target of a new u. S. Antitrust probe by more than 30 state attorneys general. Now that investigation will be formally announced next week this coming according to reuters. The probe is focused on privacy and antitrust issues. Google said it is cooperating with that investigation. Still to come this morning, tracking dorian, the new the now category 2 hurricane is beginning to lash the florida coast with winds and heavy rain. Well get you up to speed on the storm, next. And later, guest host sam zell sounds off on Interest Rates, the markets, the biggest hot button issues on business. Right now lets take a look at the biggest premarket winners and losers in the dow. Wcau meteorologist is zwr n joining us now with more. Good morning. What were looking at is a powerful storm along the east coast parallel to the florida coastline. The latest satellite imagery no longer looking nearly as impressive as yesterday but still packing a punch. 105 for the current wind speeds within this storm and its now starting to move a bit more than we saw 24 hours ago. Instead of stationary were talking about 8 Miles Per Hour to the north northwest will which will keep it running parallel to the florida coastline and look at our radar. You will see that its racking that east coast against daytona and jacksonville pockets of the stronger storm activity this will continue to ride the east coast through today and thursday and even friday so lets talk about the track as we move through the next several days and youll see its looking to make the sharp right turn before making a landfall near charleston but the cone of concern does keep areas charleston up to the outer banks in its bounds it will be very dangerously close, possibly only 15 to 20 miles outside of the areas lets talk about the carolinas were talking Hurricane Force winds above 74 Miles Per Hour. Storm surge of 4 to 7 feet and rain totals of 5 to 10 inches. Isolated areas up to 15 inches especially right up against the closest coastlines which would be closest to the eye wall of Hurricane Dorian thats the latest. The developing story in the debate over gun safety and regulation taking action to curve sales of ammunition with walmart taking the lead in that yesterday well take a quick look at u. S. Equity futures at this hour. The dow looking like it will open up 196 points higher and the nasdaq looking to open about 85 points higher were back in just a moment. When did you see the sign . When i needed to jumpstart sales. Build attendance for an event. Help people find their way. Fastsigns designed new directional signage. And got them back on track. Get started at fastsigns. Com. Should always be working harder. Thats why, your cash automatically goes into a Money Market Fund when you open a new account. And fidelitys rate is higher than etrades, td ameritrades, even 10 times more than schwabs. Plus only fidelity has zero account fees and zero minimums for retail brokerage and retirement accounts. Just another reminder of the value youll only find at fidelity. Open an account today. Youll only find at fidelity. For farmers here, this is our lifes work. But when a recall happens, perfectly good food goes to waste. Now, weve got away around that. Looks good. Were on target. Blockchain on the ibm cloud helps pinpoint a problem anywhere from farm to shelf. Its used by some of the biggest retailers everywhere. A nice lettuce. So more food ends up on your table, is that daddys lettuce . Yeah. And less food goes to waste. Welcome back to squawk box walmart is stepping back ammunition sales yesterday i was alerted to this as a surprise email midday yesterday. The largest retailer in america will now discontinue all sales of ammunition for short barrel rifles and handguns. Walmart is eliminating handguns from stores in alaska. Retailer also asking customers to no longer openly carry firearms in stores where open carry is legal the move coming five years into his tenure as ceo. He had been reluctant to speak publicly against gun violence. He has entered the debate. In a memo to employees on tuesday he called the status quo unacceptable he said walmart believes the reauthorization should be debated in washington to determine its effectiveness and also encouraged lawmakers in washington to strengthen background checks as well as Fund Research into gun violence. Something the government has been prohibited from doing this could prove to be a watershed moment in large part i would argue because it can give license to other Business Leaders to enter the conversation kroger the largest u. S. Super market chain followed walmarts move in asking customers to stop openly carrying guns in stores so a big move yesterday in the Business Community i think well see more of this with the i dont know if you saw the Washington Post out today with a full page editorial saying do something mr. Mcconnell. So a lot of this is about what business can do but the separate element of this is what of course lawmakers will do and the role that business is now going to play in advocating for certain laws and i think thats actually another dimension of this but i know that were going to have a larger debate about this in the 7 00 hour. Obviously mcconnell is waiting for trump and trump is trying to figure out what he wants to do in terms of and business is not waiting. Business isnt waiting but you need to change the business can bring pressure to change laws eventually usually you need a grass roots change in public sentiment to elect the people that will enact the laws that you want i harken back, president obama had the house and the senate and he had the pen ready to go for two full years and Nothing Happened now a lot has happened since then, obvious. For walmart, given what happened twice at its stores, this is not a surprise, probably he feels responsible to his employees and customers and everybody else and hes a good guy. But we know what w

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