Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240714 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell July 14, 2024

It really is a mixed picture here the dow is up 49 points, so well off the highs of the session the s p is down fractionally right now, but keep in mind, we are still in striking distance of a potential record close. So the next hour is going to be one to watch closely joining us for that hour is Michelle Mckinnon from Payne Capital management here at post 9. Welcome. Thank you what do you think of this market here . Were poised for gains for the week for all the major averages, but the russell 2000 and the transportation average are both up 5 , week to date. And so are the banks, like you mentioned. What im really looking at is the bond market. We started the tenyear treasury at 1. 55 for the week and now were up to 1. 88 and the longterm treasury are down 5 for the week thats basically two years worth of coupon that you lost. Wow do you think thats going to speak bond holders, that it could go worse than that or not . You know, i absolutely think rates look like theyre going higher however, this could be just a shortterm move higher i certainly dont think were going to get up to four. But i think people realize that even though you had that quick move up in prices, if you locked into those 30 years bonds, youre in trouble. How much of this hinges on the fed meeting next week . I absolutely think the fed is priced in. I dont think anything to do with the fed does, as long as the fed doesnt dramatically do anything that were not expecting, its priced in. Lots to discuss with michelle over the next hour first, lets focus on the stories were watching today bob pisani is covering the market moves as we approach new record highs dom chu is watching the surge in bond yields. Eamon javers has the latest from the white house and morgan is having a look at pressure on big tech leslie picker has the details on weworks ipo, but bond, lets start with you that was the bottom for the stock market and its the banks and other cyclicals that have led the rally. Its been a great week for jpmorgan this is an historic high today look at that move up for the last couple of weeks in jpmorgan its up 6 in the last week or so industrials and materials, the other classic groups, have been strong, as well. So 3m is up about 5 in the last week the dow is up about 11 . Caterpillar is up 9, almost 10 in the last five days. Again, big cyclical rally that weve had. One comment on apple we were weak this morning. Goldman sachs cut the companys price target theres news that lawmakers were seeking emails from tech executives see that pop in the middle of the day . Apple responded to that Goldman Sachs cutting the companys price target saying appletv plus, which was a big comment from Goldman Sachs, would not have a Material Impact on their financial results. So apple came back and refuted Goldman Sachs claims. So apple still down, but well off the lows great week for jpmorgan, but Morgan Stanley and bank of america up more in percentage terms week to date bob, thank you okay. The bond market in focus today, all week long, as well as yields have seen a major reversal dom chu is back at hq with more. Dom . Like Michelle Mckinnon said, its ground zero what has been a steady downtrend for a year now reversed with a vengeance this week. Those tenyear treasury notes fell and yields rose to the highest level since august 2nd at this stage. And that weekly rise in yield was the biggest since november of 2017. Its a mix of better Economic Data and extreme positioning by traders betting on a continued drop in rates and a rise in bond prices that led to that very violent reversal now, the low in tenyear treasury yields was 1. 429 percent. That happened on september 3rd got as high as 1. 99 today intraday some on wall street argue that the move is what led to those massive rotations among sectors in the stock market this past couple of weeks. By the way, for all of you house hunters out there, it also led to the biggest shortterm jump in 30year fixed Rate Mortgage rates since the week after President Trumps election, just to put things in perspective back over to you guys, morgan. Volatility looking all across the markets weve got new comments on taxes out of the white house eamon javers has the latest on that eamon . These comments came from a white house official they actually happened in baltimore, which is where larry kudlow has been along with republicans who are on a gop retreat today. Larry kudlow stopping to talk to reporters and talking about the administrations plans for tax cuts next year heres what he said. We are going to go through what i call tax cuts 2. 0 and i say that because i spoke with the president at some length about this idea we will gather together the best ideas from the hill. We might put something out some time maybe the middle of next year so kudlow there saying theyre in the ideagathering stage now. What aides tell me here, this is envisioned for tax cuts 2. 0 as a campaign thing for the 2020 campaign the president will go to the campaign trail and make the argument to voters that i cut taxes in my first term if you reelect me and elect a republican majority on capitol hill, well do it again. This time, a massive middle class tax cut will be the focus. The president is, of course, aware that nancy pelosi is the speaker of the house and democrats not likely to pass anything he wants next year. They dont envision this as legislation for 2020 they do say its something they could work on for 2021 over here at the white house eamon, thank you very much for that michelle, to what extent are investors getting concerned about the size of the deficit in the u. S. , or is it something thats always kind of three, four, five years away and we can ignore i think its kind of a three, four, five years away that we can ignore now, should we ignore it i think thats a different question what makes me question is i know that elected officials have mentioned, maybe we should be looking at 50year, 100year bonds. And when you look at the tenyear treasury, youre like, why not . Its a shame that we cant get together and do something to refinance some of this debt at longterm rates and talking about bond yields, i forgot to mention, you know, with the yields being so low at the beginning of the month, you had Companies Like apple, deere, disney, all refinance 30year bonds for less than 3 its like, why cant the government do that the question will be if theres a lot of demand. The hundredyear didnt seem to get it well see if it materializes turning now to the crackdown on big tech, the House Judiciary Committee requesting documents from the leaders of some of americas biggest tech companies. Morgan has more on that for us morgan it is a story that just keeps developing across a number of fronts so the tech lash continuing to grow the House Judiciary Committee announcing today it has sent letters to each of the big four tech companies, facebook, amazon, apple, and alphabet to turn over a trove of internal documents, including executives emails, relating to competition matters. The lawmakers, both republicans and democrats, gave each company a deadline of october 14th and this really marks the latest development in a congressional antitrust probe but it also comes in whats already been a really big week of heightened pressure on Silicon Valley after state attorneys general launched investigations into both google and facebook and google also disclosed in the past week or so that it received a separate investigative records request from the department of justice so the ftc has also been investigating some of the Big Tech Companies and ftc commissioner rchopra discussed some of those issues earlier today. It bugs the hell out of me that we see so much reduction and investment in sectors where some of these firms dominate and thats just not a country or an economy that we should want to live in yes, theres a lot of actors involved but that means that theres going to be more resources to be analytical and to find where there might be violations and be smart about those remedies now, commissioner chopra, who is a democrat and who has been very critical of some of the settlements the ftc has arrive to already with some of the tech companies, for example, with facebook, said he is in Constant Contact, that they are in Constant Contact with state ags across the country and hes happy to see the congressional probe is bipartisan. I also pointblank asked him about amazon and whether the ftc is officially investigating that company. And he did not confirm that. Said he wasnt going to discuss any specific company didnt take the bait, despite the very sadly, no. Despite the repeated attempts it speaksto the climate out there. And the other point, of course, as you point out, lots of things breaking this week and tech down 0. 0 as a whole. Is that rotation or because of this political threat . You could say its rotation however, as big as people are calling that this rotation is, when i look at tech, you often say, okay, what led you into this rally is probably is whats going to lead you out of the rally. And i think youre probably seeing new highs with tech ill just say this Companies Like apple, Companies Like facebook have had financial returns yeartodate and i think as investors, okay, maybe be a little fearful of this headline, but it could be just time to take profits, just because you had a great run this year lets stick with tech, but move forward to weworks rocky road towards an ipo. Leslie picker joins us with more is it a tech company and does it deserve a tech multiple as a result that valuation range, though, could be set some time next week according to sources reuters saying that the valuation could be as lowe as 10 billion. Though those ive spoken with say it hasnt officially deny decided yet. Now, still, weworks Parent Company is considering debuting at a far lower valuation than initially expected and they made some Corporate Governance changes today, both of those tactics are in response to muted investor interest one investor, though, with a vested interest is softbank. The wall street journal citing sources familiar with the matter reporting that softbank will buy at least 750 million worth of the ipo. They are citing sources familiar with the matter. Guys leslie, how often do we hear that sort of worded headline that theyre committing to an arbitrary amount, but with no comment about the valuation whatsoever it does strike somewhat of desperation. I will say. So this is known as an anchor investor, of sorts we saw that with peloton just this past week they had tcv come in as an anchor investor saying they would buy 50 million of that ipo which is upwards of 1 billion. Its not uncommon to see these previous investors be investors in the ipo it helps the supply demand dynamic while still raising capital. Its become increasingly common over time. But as you mentioned, this deal, there are so many just changes and kind of a rocky road towards this ipo, its hard to know exactly whats going on that propelled them no invest that 750 million, if the people that the journal is citing, if that ultimately winds up to be the number all right leslie picker, thank you stocks are trading mixed right now, but hovering near the flat line. The dow is up 31 points and the s p is down four points right now. The nasdaq is the underperformer, down about 0. 3 . Weve got 48 minutes left of trade. For now, lets bring in kneela richardson, investment strategist at edwards jones. I want to keep sticking with this ipo theme for a minute. We had another one here at the Exchange Cloud flare which is right behind me. It jumped 20 out of the gate on its first day of trading its been a mixed bag. Smile direct club yesterday plunged Something Like 27 how do you think all of these ipos that are coming to market reflect back on broader sentiment . I think the sentiment is low enough that they dont reward negative earnings. Thats what we need to be able to focus on. You have to not only be able to make a dollar, but if you cant make a dollar, show a path to profitability. When we look at some of the biggest valuations weve seen, theres no path to profits and i think investors are finally starting to clue into that and adjust their expectations accordingly. Now, do you think that thats healthy . That the market is identifying that, hey, you dont have earnings and were not going to give you a price that reflects that earnings is the biggest driver of raernearnings absolutely michelle, to what extent if these ipos dont go well does it hurt alreadylisted stocks is it just a handful or huge amounts of market space. I think its more reflected upon new ipos coming to the market looking at the private market and saying, hey, are you guys giving the correct valuations, because clearly the Public Markets arent agreeing with you. Nela whab do you like right now . Especially if profits are carrying more importance right now at the cycle to be a little tongue in cheek with your question, i like consumers. Because consumers are really driving up this entire market. People point to the fed for stimulus, i point to the consumer for growth on the economic scale so for that reason, we like Consumer Staples we think consumers keep spending and because of longterm demographic reasons, aging of the population, we Like Health Care so a little bit slight defensive posture, but overall, were bullish on the s p we think returns will grow over the year it will be a little bit bumpy, though nela, to what extent are cuts from the fed still needed . Next week was widely expected. If that was the only cut we got, could it spook the board equity market in the year ahead you know what, i dont think fed cuts are needed at all i think theres a disconnect between market expectation and what the fed will actually end up doing and that will play out in volatility over time. The fed, in my view is playing defense. Its being having an insurance cut against a possible stumble related to global events it has no control over if the fed changes its posture, lowers its outlook and starts playing offense to grow the economy, it gets my attention. Otherwise, were just trying to push off some traderelated attentions still ahead on closing bell, shares of apple under pressure following a bearish call from Goldman Sachs, but the company taking the rare step of fighting back against the note those details, coming up and later, well dive into weworks shrinking valuation and the growing crackdown on tech with kara swisher. Heres a check on our data tracker. Retail sales climbed 0. 4 in august, beating estimates by 0. 2 and the university of michigans Consumer Sentiment index also topped estimates closing bell will be right back hmm. Exactly. Liberty mutual customizes your Car Insurance, so you only pay for what you need. Nice. But, uh. Whats up with your. Partner . Not again. Limu thats your reflection. Only pay for what you need. Liberty, liberty, liberty, liberty Classical Music playing throughout welcome back weve got 42 minutes left of trade. Heres a check on the dow leaders today. The dow itself is up 2. 5 . Jpmorgan chase is hitting a record high in todays trade is up at 1. 7 the dow is higher only just 13 points it would be eight Straight Days of gains for the dow if it closes higher. Lets send it over to mike for todays market dashboard hi, mike hi, wilf. Heres whats coming up, if you come at the king maybe you know the rest of that line this is about the king of banks. Get to that in a second. And enthusiasm has been curbed for one of the biggest name stocks out there ill talk about wall streets opinion of it in a little bit. Big little highs big cap stocks on the verge of records. Little ones, not so much and eastbound and down thats the direction of riskier credit yields. And thats an interesting input into the stock equation, too so, if you come at the king you guys have been talking about the alltime high today in jpmorgan shares. Its hard to be too bearish if jpmorgan is making new highs but what i like to look at, it really does whip around quite a bit the relative performance and i want to point out a couple of spiked peaks. This was middecember. This is when the overall market was finishing a massive pullback and we have that huge reversal higher in overall stocks, but lower in the Jpmorgan Bank of america relationship another one right here, thats june 3rd that was the bottom of the springtime correction. So the pattern here is, when the market as a whole is having a hard time, jpmorgan vastly outperformed bank of america its considered the quality, the more stable, the defensive one they hide in jpmorgan when things look rough. When things look better, they go back into bank of america spop weve seen this little spike here this is a relationship to look at for the overall Risk Appetite of the market, just with these two big relatively similar institutions, guys mike, i mean, i love this chart, of course, so thank you for bringing it to us. Of course the interesting thing with bank of america, as well, is it does, of the big caps, always trade as the most sensitive to interests, because its earnings are by a fact, more sensitive to Interest Rates in terms of the multiple there, bank of America Today versus five years ago is much closer to jpmorgan in terms of pricetobook multiples than it used to be and it has closed that gap it has. Its ground its way in that direction, right whereas youve got citi and Goldman Sachs at book and Morgan Stanley below book its much closer to joining jpmorgan than being a part of the rest of the pack even though this is only a twoyear chart and you can go farther back and you can probably see jpmorgan at higher highs relative to bank of america. That is true tha

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