Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240714 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell July 14, 2024

Joining us for the hour stephanie link from nuveen, a tiaa company so we lost the gains is it on fears ha a trade 2k5e8s getting pushed snout is the market expecting a trade deal at this point i think were a little more optimistic about a trade deal most recently and thats why we rallied as much as we did and thats why rates actually increased over the last couple of weeks but yeah, i think the commentary today about trade kind of pushed us down. But i really think were still trying to digest what the fed said yesterday i do think it was a hawkish cut but i also thought that powell walked it back why was it a hawkish cut . Because you have the dissenters and you were talking about it yesterday you were right on it as soon as it came out yesterday about the dissenters and i totally agree with you on that heres the quandary. The Economic Data in the sfats is not bad we had great housing data yesterday, pretty good data on housing, i. P. , retail sales. Jobs continues to be good. So if hes watching the data, then the data says hes probably not going to cut further if hes watching Global Growth and trade, then he probably still has to so i think thats whats happening today, that were a little on the confused side. I know for a fact im not doing very much, although i did add to d. R. Horton today. If hes watching the Norwegian Central Bank he might hike that was a surprise that was a surprise but no one else is doing that. Everybody else is easing. Weve got lots with stephanie throughout the next hour but lets focus in on the big stories were watching today scott wapners at delivering alpha with some of the days Top Investment ideas Kayla Tausche has the latest on the trade with china Mark Zuckerberg meeting with lawmakers on capitol hill. Scott, lets start with you. All right, wilfred, thanks very much. Big day delivering alpha visited with several big investors including the legend leon cooperman. He said the market is in a fair zone of value. Something hes really been saying for the last couple of years. And then he offered up this zinger on what would happen if Elizabeth Warren became president. Right now the market is assuming donald trump is reelected if it looks like Elizabeth Warren is a credible or Bernie Sanders is a credible opponent to trump, the market will not be higher, it will be lower. By how much well, i can tell you shed be a bear market and bear markets generally go down for a year and they go down 25 . So it would be that severe. I would say that basically her policies are counterproductive. Theyre negative for capitalism. Cooperman quipped on the stage during a conversation i had with him and jim chanos that the market wouldnt open if Elizabeth Warren was elected president. Yes, i caught up with jim chanos as well who revealed a couple of new shorts the first, the kidney Dialysis Company davita heres why this is a company thats paid a billion two in fines to the government over the last ten years as a course of doing business its a company that has pages and pages and pages of risk factors intheir 10k. This is, again, a company that over 100 of their operating earnings are coming from this scheme and look, if we get medicare for all or medicare option or the aca is shut down due to the federal court ruling, this Business Model blows up completely that would be bad news for Berkshire Hathaway because they have a more than 20 position in davita thats what makes that story even more rich despite the fact that its one of the most famed short sellers of all time whos revealing a new position in that company, davita. And by the way, chanos talked about another new short thats just become public in the last 24 hours that on the Food Delivery Company grubhub. Right now grubhub is making almost no money per order,ing . Like 15 cents an order theres just no margin in this business and youre basically putting two more hands outstretched for the restaurant guy saying pay the delivery company, pay the driver, for money that theyre really not making. All the stocks in question today moving lower yet another example, guys, of how the market masters here in delivering alpha cause stocks to move every single time guys scott, were there any implications given its uber eats business from the grubhub pool we asked him about that as you might expect, wilf the ib of how not only grubhub but how uber and lyft account for their employees as contractors rather than employees is an issue. So i asked chanos should we take away that he short uber as well . He gave me sort of a wry smile and wouldnt go there specifically but he sounds like hes negative that whole sort of section of the universe and we saw a reaction in uber shares down 1. 4 scotts, go scott, good stuff. Thank you. U. S. China trade talks are under way. Lets get to Kayla Tausche for the next couple of days u. S. And chinese trade officials are going to be sitting down hashing out issues like agriculture, like fentanyl, and like currency. And as these talks are going on, a bear, a hawk on china Michael Pillsbury of the Hudson Institute whos been advising President Trump from outside the white house on trade tells the South China Morning Post if theres not a deal soon that President Trump could escalate things and tariffs as high as 100 we know President Trump is the tariff man, he has a steel stomach for things like that we spoke to another outside ally of the white house on trade who said that pillsbury is freelancing but that the president likes that because it gives him more negotiating room and its sort of a Good Cop Bad Cop dynamic that allows him to ramp up the pressure on china even as his negotiators are in the room trying to do that work. But even so, we are seeing some positive signs emerging that china is here in the u. S. To check off some of the boxes that the president has laid out we have learned through our sources that chinese officials are planning to go to farm country, specifically in montana and nebraska, to meet with farmers face to face and secretary of agriculture sonny perdue this afternoon said he is hopeful that accompanying those visits are purchase agreements listen and we hope that these purchases or agreements or these talks this coming week can be fruitful and lead momentum as was said into further discussions of a trade resolution those visits that were first reported by cnbc are going to be taking place early next week so these talks might officially end tomorrow, guys but theyre going to unofficially continue throughout next week. Back to you. Kayla, thank you very much as always speaking of washington, fbs ceo Mark Zuckerberg is on the hill today meeting with lawmakers ylan mui has the latest for us zuckerberg is meeting with senator josh hawley, a republican from missouri you can see all the reporters and cameras outside the office there anxiously awaiting the end of this meeting. So far its lasted just over about half an hour and before he came down here to meet with hawley he met with utah senator mike lee, another republican lee said they spoke about several key issues including bias against conservatives on the social media platform, antitrust government regulation, the section 230 liability shield as well as data privacy. But lee did not characterize the tenor of those meetings. He has been critical of facebook and of big tech in general in recent months. We will see if senator hawley gives us some more information about how that meeting went once it wraps up. We do expect him to address reporters and well bring you all the latest when we have it back over to you all right keep us posted ylan, thanks stocks trading kind of mixed to lower. We lost some earlier gains following yesterdays Interest Rate cut by the fed. I spoke with Marathon Asset Management ceo Bruce Richards at delivering alpha this morning. Heres what he said about this global move from Central Banks toward negative yields its a fools game. And i believe that treasuries trading negative is the most absurd thing the Central Banks have ever done and that it will blow up in their face. For more lets bring in sarah bloomrask and former Federal Reserve board governor and former deputy treasury secretary who was at our delivering alpha conference sarah, welcome is it going to blow up in their face, going to negative rates . Well, ill tell you i mean, chairman powell made it pretty clear yesterday during the press conference that negative rates are not on the horizon. He went so far really as to talk about what the playbook is going to be should we have a prolonged downturn and i thought that was really quite significant because there is a lot of chatter in the air about negative Interest Rates and whether thats going to be an important tool should the fed want to do more in the area of stimulation. The other question on the topic of the ecb and negative rates, sarah, is whether even if it doesnt blow up in their face, whether it achieves any extra growth from where they are now. I dont know if you saw the very tepid demand from their latest tranche of Bank Liquidity that they offer up to the european banks. But is it suggested at this stage in the cycle from where we are already theres very little the ecb can do yeah. I think that is close to being right on the mark because of course negative Interest Rates are untested really. We dont have good results from the times theyve been tried theyve been, you know, in place at the ecb for a while we see what the results are there. And of course the bank of japan has been living with negative Interest Rates for a while, again, with mixed results. So i think i think the jurys still out on whether these are going to be an important tool that somehow get accommodated or get used by the u. S. So at the top of the show, sarah, we talked to stephanie link, who has a pretty good pulse on the market here and was saying that the digestion of the fed is actually a little hawkish because if hes data dependent the datas not pointing to another cut. Hes also got a very divided Federal Reserve, which has only grown more so. And that also doesnt necessarily point to a cut so is that the right interpretation i think that is the right interpretation youre got pragmatic considerations, which is that chairman powell is now drawing three dissents from both sides and so that is hes kind of we kind of see the fraying of a consensus so pragmatically, yes, that would suggest that the end of easing may be signalled. And of course the indicators he made it very clear that he is keeping his eyes on the dual mandate. From his perspective labor Market Conditions look good. He feels we are close to maximum employment hes also signaled that Monetary Policy is doing Better Things to getting us toward that 2 inflation target so from the dual mandate perspective i think his focus there was to send a signal that the economy from his perspective is doing just what it should be. Steph, whatever the fed did yesterday, the rise in yields weve seen from the prior couple of weeks has paused. Does that mean the rotation weve been seeing in the stock market is going to pause as well well, it certainly has paused this week for sure i think it all depends on the Economic Data. Right . If the Economic Data comes in weaker than expected, then its very hard to see value outperforming growth but heres the thing that when i talked about the Economic Data being a little bit better than expected here, inflation is starting to creep up a little bit here so that is something that bothers me now, i know they look at the core pce so i get that. And thats still very tame but the core cpi last three months annualizeed is 3. 4 thats a big number. And then the philly fed and the Empire Manufacturing series. Both series showed price increases and thats not good. Its something we have to watch not only the headlines and the data but now inflation a little bit. Im not worried yet but there are starting to be some signs here sarah, could that mean we start to see a steepening of the yield curve for the wrong reasons if we do see inflation pick up . Yeah. So im not so sure that its the inflation side that has me worried. I think weve got to keep an eye on whats going on in the repo market today was the third day. This shouldnt have happened really its not particularly a great sign that the fed has to keep injecting reserves into the repo market theres another operation on friday just crossing to your worries. Explain why thats got you concerned. Yeah. So i think the fed is going to have a timing issue on their hands. They want to they should be thinking about whether they want to put in place a more permanent kind of facility so that they can forestall the lack of confidence that continuous injections might be instilling at the same time the setting up of a permanent facility itself could foster questions about the right level of reserves and why this is happening and why this is happening now sarah, great to speak to you as always. Thanks very much thank you still ahead here on closing bell, former ford ceo mark fields will tell us when he thinks the General Motors strike could end and will react to the white houses move to revoke californias auto emissions authority. And then we will discuss the future of fake meat with the ceo of impossible foods, which announced today its going to start offering products in some Grocery Stores for the first time as we head to break, a quick check on our data tracker. Existing home sales unexpectedly rise 1. 3 in august highest level in 17 months wall street was looking for sales to decline by 1. 1 dows down 23 points 45 minesilthcle. Ut tl e os woman what gives me confidence about Investment Decisions . Rigorous fundamental research. With Portfolio Managers focused on the long term. Who look beyond the spreadsheets to understand companies, from breakroom to boardroom. Who know the only way to get a 360 view is to go around the world to get it. Can i rely on deep research to help make quality Investment Decisions . With capital group, i can. Talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. This is the third day in a row weve had toto its good, though i love it but its a little much, no 42 minutes left of trade the dow negative, the s p positive lets send it over to mike for todays market dashboard mike well, thanks very much. Heres what we have ahead for you. Acts of selfdetermination, or some corporate selfhelp in the form of buybacks take a look at that. Then cant dance together. Some contrasting moves between equities and bonds over the past year take a closer look there no nervous breakdown thats a look at the internals of the stock market, which remain pretty firm then a very prime number thats a key indicator of this economic expansion well get a check in on that first selfdetermination buybacks are back in the news. Microsoft of course announcing last night another 40 billion refresh to its stock repurchase plan microsoft shares making a new alltime high today. Take a look, though, at the performance of the buybackoriented Exchange Traded funds. This is over the past year and youll see theyve kind of held their own depending which angle you take on it this is the buyback achiever, has basically kept pace with the s p 500. Though the buyback etf from spiders has lagged it a little bit. Thats partly because a lost financials in this one right here and also not a lot of Consumer Staples but then look at it over the last five years. Theres this whole notion in there that buybacks have been principally keeping the stock market afloat. If thats the case why dont the buyback stocks seem to be able to keep up youre seeing here the s p 500 is handily outperformed overt past five years these buybackoriented companies buybacks put cash back into investor portfolios. They can be recycled into any stocks, not just the same stocks that brought back the shares but to me it challenges the idea that its been a principal driver of stocks its been part of the overall story feeding the ecosystem of a bull market, guys. Mike, thank you do you think its been a driver of stocks . Its been a help. But i would say that there are certain sectors that have benefited more from buying back their stock than others. Right . You want the Software Companies with recurring revenues and strong Free Cash Flow to absolutely invest in their businesses but also theyre buying back stocks thats why i think microsoft makes perfect sense. Makes perfect sense. And i think youre going to continue to see that sector be the leader in terms of buybacks and thebl the ones that get rewarded versus other industries beyond meat getting a bounce after barclays initiated coverage of the stock with a buy rating up next well hear from the analyst behind that call and we will also be discussing the competition its facing ceo of impossible foods telling us about the move into Grocery Stores later on closing bell. When i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. Mmm. Good. So

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