Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240714 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 14, 2024

Thats right. Im told that those headlines that crossed earlier today, those are accurate headlines thats what got the markets attention. They are considered o considering some measures behind the scenes here at the white house to stop u. S. Investors being able to invest in Chinese Companies in one way shape or form or another. But theyre very early on in those conversations is my understanding. And there is no time line at this point for any fundamental decision all of in framed in the guise of investor protection. The idea is there is a concern that there are some Chinese Companies that may be listed in the u. S. That arent exactly what theyre purported to be bus of the accounting scattered showers and other differences between the way the two countries handle corporate disclosures. So that is being discussed behind the scenes. Its not clear there are a lot of options not clear where they land or when the decision is coming one model for it might be the piece of legislation that senator marco rubio and others are considering on capitol hill. They have talked about that in the past the idea there would be they would Delist Companies unless they conformed more stringently to American Securities regulations, the Chinese Companies would. So thats one proposal but rubios office cnbc this afternoon they have not been in direct contact coordinating with the white house on the proposals that the white house is working on that is a separate idea moving on a separate track but gives you a sense of where this might land ultimately its still tbd. Would this have to come from congress, eamon or a vote by the s. E. C. How can how can the administration force an exchange to decide the listing standards . It really depends on what they decide to do, right some of those ideas would require congress to pass law and the white house would have to get support from democrats to do it because democrats control the house of representatives in a contentious Election Year that might not be doable there might be other smaller regulatory changes they can do on their own im told the mechanics of this are still being discussed. And they dont have a particular plan for how to roll it out yet because its still very early on. Okay. Eamon thank you very much. Eamon javers there are so many ways to go but what is definitely clear is the reaction in todays markets. A lot of the chinese etfs closed lower. A lot of the chinese did the same the trade war poster children stocks like semi conductors took a leg lower as if micron news wasnt enough. Where do you go with in. I dont know what ths, number one. However if its a northbounding tactic getting into the october date whenever that is, the 10th or so when the two sides sit down its a highstakes game of poker they are playing there have been rumblings about this over the years. I dont think its been considered all that serious. A northbounding tactic but if you told mean 8 30 this morning that the headlines would come out and say where the market going to be i would say given the back drop of everything, s p will be down 50 to 607 handles nasdaq will be down 150. And and the bond market explodes to the upside. None of that happened. Again it speaks to the complacency or the broad are market or strength and resiliency of it i say its kplasen but i understand the bull case that its strength in relative strength given the rest of the world. Probably all those things if. But probably more resilient and not getting ahead of this and the fact that this could never happen i dont think you can delist all the names. I dont think its going to happen but when you look at were at the end of the month, end of the quarter. When you look at where we were 7 handles above negative on quarter we bounced back dramatically from the middle of the day. Thats impressive. Thats true and we did buns back right off the 50day to the number i think there are a couple of things to think about. Number one think about the msci indexes for example. A lot of our clients and clients in general they got exposure to international stocks, emergeening markets. Via etfs to track the index. When you think about eem you are talking about 30 exposure to china. Thats systemically going up as theyve been increasing exposure to china as far as the broad market i think we are range bound honestly to your point about the recovery today, i think it comes down to positioning as well as sentiment. I keep saying it again and again on the show. I sound lake a broken record probably but cftc position attention second week net sure aaii bull bear survey. Bears outweighing bulls. Doesnt mean we cant correct and have have volatility but that puts a floor under how bad it gets. Nice haircut. I did it for you. The way its done, right. This felt like an American Company here by will no longer and so in terms of what listing standards are lets be chlors there are a lot of Chinese Companies that arent listing that cant make the standards. The good news folks the american listing standards are high including accounting standards and transparency and Corporate Governance i think thats the standard and that will win out. But were talking about jeff is talking about emerging markets which i would put closer to 40, 45 china. And where you can see from the april highs, the downtrend which em is now four, five sessions well off trying to breakthrough. Its a downtrend and cant break through. With the dollar going higher i have trouble seeing this breakout alibaba is a name im long and done nothing a year and a half essentially sideways if you look at the upper end of the age between 180 and 190, this is a stock thats been dead money zpoit the fact that you had an invest twoday investor day jack ma moving on. People thought there was going to be more transparency, more insight in the financial a little more insight into how they run the businesses. Its not a particularly exciting time to be investing in emerging markets or megacap names. You say regardless of the noise its not right time. I dont think even if the trade war ended tomorrow i think niece stocks would get a pop. But the problem im concerned about the longer term game. The 2321 names if everyone goes on 196. If you add in hong kong its 229. None of them meet the accounting standards. What sfwlum of the listed chinese stocks listed on american exchanges 156 companies its 156 but if you go with the hong kong number adding in hong kong and chinese stocks, its about 229 okay. Okay. None of them meet the accounting standards of the u. S. Listed companies none of them do. Some. Youre saying there is two standards. Two standards right now thats what the debate is base and with that equitable act that theyre talking about they get three years to comply. Once that they delist. I ill take steves word. I cant speak to the standards to be delisted but the question is is there retaliation now. Yes. Thats the bigger concern we pushed the envelop. The chinese push back. It gets back down to does this make a deal more imminent orp make a deal less likely . I would say this makes a deal less likely. Again, its shocking to me and ive been wrong so i have to preface. Its shocking that even off the back drop of everything thats happened the last couple woks the vix mass ma 17 handle and still within a whisper of the alltime high on the s p 500 the iwm the russell look where it stopped on the up side stopped where with we topped in march. Closed lower today to me, the russell has been a tellall along and if thats rolling over from here that might pull down the broader market. I thought you were going to add in the price action of the exchanges today. Yes. Fair enough youre in my head. More so than in youre own head. On ice. Should be troubling to all us. On the ice thats a small portion of the revenues. But its a larger portion. And of course you had people shoot first and then roerch eset later. This is important but going on for years and stems from the house of representatives not from the white house the white house is actually picking up on it. I understand this has been going on for years but hasnt been going on until recently with the context of a trade war, with the context of a china going look for ways to guys point and if china retaliates what can they do . They can make it difficult for u. S. Companies to expand in china. To do more business in china, to get their stuff through the supply chains in china do jvs in china and go there. It already was. To be clear Companies Like apple and some of the Technology Companies have figured out the rules of engagement and have kissed ring so to speak. I think thats how a quid pro quo takes place. I do think that this is guy, you are right. Ultimately its very difficult to see how this doesnt lead to a ratcheting up of a titfortat. And i think we go to october 10, i think the market is a little bit too complacent as it relates to trade i think jeff talks about where positioning well, not so complacent, actually. Right. Even though i think in the last couple weeks, the aaii bull bear spreads are things that can change quickly. Theyre like relative strength indicators getting overbought, oversold but the general poging in equities is under weight. And the one thing continuing to be strange but the correlation between trumps Approval Rating and the deescalation of trade tensions and theyre positively correlated truch has to know that he sees the Approval Ratings and the Approval Ratings are directly tied to the votes he is likely to get in the president ial election he has to know in the back of his mind even with impeachment coming up maybe that pushes him to want to do a deal more so to save face there. And to to your point about the positioning the one thing maybe underappreciated is is that look the economy sthant bad Consumer Confidence bounced a bit today. The housing data is better im not saying off to races. But as it relates to support and potential catalyst for the centsment reversal. Why would china retaliate. Why wouldnt it retaliate. Because they dont want the supply chain to change anymore it has with tariffs. Weve heard of apple trying to work around china already. Why would they give other companies more incentive to try to do that make it makes it less likely a deal is done but i dont see a retaliatory measure that behoves china to do. Maybe i think what the other thing trump knows and see he is he is always emphasizeding the sfrez the difference in Chinese Markets panel u. S. Markets pappen and theyre feeling more pain than the u. S. Markets this is a way of weaponizing the trade war. Saying were going after chinese stocks making it more difficult for you to raise capital in the best market in the world here. And thats going to hurt you. I i agree 100 which is my point is the en a steve might be right why would i think as americans we look through everything where the prism and lens of being americans. Its hard for any of us to understand how the other side would react. But if you take a step back and say to yourself, who is in a better position . Who is in a position that can outlast the other president xi doepts have to run for reelection in a year. President trump does my sense is ive said this for a while. I think the chinese are better suited to play the long game than we are. I think very clearly though our markets are the deepest most sophisticated in the world china wants to be part of the markets i think this hurts. Quick programming note here senator Mitch Mcconnell will join squawk alley this monday mpds for a interview catch it 11 00 a. M. Eastern time see what he has to say about this were getting starred on fast. Up next the bank breakout on the financials on fire this month. Find out what driving the action bettingen oh theland builders the chart master will play with us a stealth way to play a housing boom live from times square in new york city. 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The long search for a ceo coming to an pen. Nbny melon chief taking the helm if you havent been paying attention. The banks on fire. The xl up 7 the past month. But is this bank breakout to go bust, steve. I dont like the banks. I look at the xlf and looks like double top to me perfectly from back before the crisis we had peak earnings back then peak leverage. 30 to 1 leverage thats not coming back i think thats why a lot of the banks did so damn well is because they had had 30 to 1 leverage if that was the key money maker then thats not coming back. Regulation has not lowered to the point where you see the banks run further from here. Im shocked we have up days in the xlf i would abseller spreads improved tremendously in the same time period the banks went up. Im with you steve. If you look at the financials chart it looks a bit better than the bank charts. The bank charts are making the lower highs. Its hard fast money to get really excited about the banks i understand the valueses there. I talked about the economy still being okay but its hard for me to see a real economic skrerlgts that steepens the curve enough to be a catalyst for the valuation rerate still not feeling great about the banks here. Well, and financials if you look at the xlf we know there are other big positions in there that arent Money Center Banks or berkshire orb blackstone, the outperformed of a blackstone tends to skew some of that but the question is is todays news that at wells fargo is a catalyst to see a rerating for a stock obviously derated substantially . Remember this company used to trade at a premium to the other Money Center Banks i dont think so i think there is so much jury still to be proven lets lead with actions. Lead with activity, see if you can win back the trust because right now in company should be trading at a discount and will continue. There are investigations and consent decrees open and wells fargo. You know in sports, mel, sometimes you want to hire a manager. By the way, why did you start that as if mel knows nothing about sports we talk sports all the time. All the time. S the that wasnt the tone. Maybe he was just man explaining to me. I dont know what that means man explaining no, in sports sometimes like to hierpg the energy and the first chase no second choice. It was like when i was dating. All my choices but then you. Linda is lovely. No, no sometimes you wind up with somebody who you might not have thought of as that great. And they are a star. This guy might be it but to the earlier points banks had a huge fun citi went from 6 is to 70 over a couple of weeks. Theyve been trading instruments. I think you continue to trade them citi reports october 15th. I think you sell it into earnings. Coming up, a big battle brewing out west wine versus wed our own jane wells got the details on the sinful showdown, jane. Melissa white palacek hoops are being repurposed for cannabis some farmers of other crops saying keep off the grass. Thc you when we come back. S the next mozart. As usual we were behind schedule. But sophies enthusiasm cannot be dampened. Not even by a runaway donut. We powered through it in our toyota prius. Because a stars got to shine, no matter what. Its unbelievable what you can do in the prius. Toyota lets go places. Plants capture co2. What if other kinds of plants captured it too . If these industrial plants had technology that captured carbon like trees we could help lower emissions. Carbon capture is Important Technology and experts agree. Thats why were working on ways to improve it. So plants. Can be a little more. Like plants. Welcome back to fast money. Forget the hatfields and kmois this is a turf war breaking out between wed and wine. Jane wells on the front lines of the budding battle jane im in Santa Barbara county this is an illegal busted pot operation next to a vineyard but there are plenty of Legal Cannabis farms Santa Barbara handed out 35 of all the permits to grow commercial marijuana in this state more than any other california county. And covered cannabis grows are now often next to other crops not just grapes but avocados. There is like one, two, three, four projects right there. And then there is tup more just right over that hill another one over there vintner blare pints calls it an existential threat to his business he is concerned about the odor which can be strong

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