Center stage and treasuries weaken with the curve flattening after last weeks definitive move higher. Joining us for the hour, dan nathan a real Holding Pattern here today. Are we waiting for news out of washington heres the good news, right we had this big rip up off of the lows last week on optimism that there would be some sort of grand deal as far as trade is concerned. The fact that it doesnt look like that were going to get that at the end of the day, the fact that were not down in a meaningful manner is fairly establish. Could things change pretty quickly if the fed decides top pull our negotiators away and we know were dead in the water for a couple of months no doubt about it. Its kind of interesting on a day like today, where we dont see staples and utilities. These are two of the bestperforming groups, deemed to be defensei you dont see them rallying and dont see the s p 500 down a lot either it seems like a lot of nothing despite some really potential for volatility later in the week down just 0. 2 or so. Well keep an eye on the direction of movement with just 48 58 minutes left of trade lets focus in on the big stories were watching Kayla Tausche is covering the latest on trade. Steve liesman is tracking wall streets read on the economy and mike santoli has his market dashboard. Bob, lets start with you. What weve got here is chopping trading i would call it low conviction really, we had two rallies one of them was in the midmorning. Larry kudlow came on, saying the u. S. Is keeping an open mind, but also says he has no plans to force a delisting of Chinese Companies trading in the u. S that helped early on, about 10 30. And about 1 30 eastern time, we had a fox news report that the Chinese Commerce ministry was ready to do a deal on the parts of negotiation both sides could agree upon but then we just sort of lost steam. And there wasnt any real headlines on that. The conviction on the china trade just is not very strong right now. It hasnt been for a while china stocks did rally midday and fell back. If you want to look at the mchi, this is a broad china etf. Same situation, it just fell back, rallied initially. And semiconductors, they went positive midday, but they, too, have faell back into negative territory for the most part except for materials courtney, back to you. Thanks, bob well check in with you later. Turning now to the china trade deal or potential deal or maybe no deal. Who knows . As deputylevel negotiations kick off ahead of higherlevel talks later this week, Kayla Tausche has the latest from washington hi, kayla. Good morning. Theyre meeting behind closed doors, but both washington and beijing choosing to message through the media as these critical talks get underway in washington chinese officials have suggested to multiple outlets that they would do a deal, but on some narrower issues, but they would not change beijings intellectual property laws, and thats long been a deal breaker for the white house. But trader adviser Peter Navarro this morning said it was a broad deal or no deal, and then you had larry kudlow say that the u. S. Was open to whatever the delegation would bring both sides are hedging their bets that talks between principles later this week beginning thursday would be fruitful, even if the result for now was incomplete and those negotiations on those tough issues extend through the election guys kayla, thank you very much for that dan, your take on this i mean, clearly not clear positives in progress, but the market has been focused more on other things, the fundamental data, for example, than the trade headlines of late. I think its really important. Theyre all kind of connected. Were starting to see our manufacturing data weaken here and the notion that the u. S. Could somehow kind of decouple from china, which is feeling a far greater effect from this trade war than we are, is catching up to us a little bit were seeing weaker consumer data here in the u. S the notion that this thing could go on for too much longer the way it is, is not great. And we know that we also have the looming deadline of december 15th, for those consumer tariffs that were announced on august 1st. And when you think about that, thats really when this market started to slant downward on august 1st, after just making a new alltime high on july 26 president. So i think there needs to be some sort of resolution, at least that wont have new tariffs come in december 15th. That will hang over the market in the next couple of months if this trade negotiation just falls apart and those tariffs are on tap off a some of that worsening Economic Data, wall street firms have lowered economic forecasts over the last few days and Steve Liesman is having a look at where sentiment stands overall. Steve . While markets seem to think bad news was good news when it came to the jobs report, thats because it meant more federate cuts, potentially. Wall street economists are suggesting bad news may really be bad news. The data remain consistent with an economy that has slowed consistently, but not to the point of recession this slowdown in employment is likely to cause Household Spending which has been the bright spot to moderate. And optimists point to a high savings rate overall to support their view that consumers will keep on spending on, and the u. S. Will avoid recession. But pessimists, they point to these declining forecasts for gdp. Were down to 1. 5 for the justcompleted Third Quarter in our tracking survey. 1. 9 is for the quarter were in now. Several speeches and data points to come this weekend that could impact the outlook for both the economy and the fed. Producer prices tomorrow morning, jay powell giving a speech that likely deals with the economy. Fed minutes on wednesday, cpi on thursday, and of course, import prices, while they didnt used to be important, theyre important now. Fed speeches suggest some strong divisions on the committee and well see this week if they move it more towards the more upbeat view or the mess mechanism of the wall street economy. Well watch and see if bad news is still bad news lets send it over to mike santoli for todays market dashboard. I have a dashboard thats kind of fit for this mixed, ambiguous tape we have right here give and take, it will show how much f. A. A. N. G. Stocks have taken away leads and lags, a couple of belle weather sectors that are telling two different stories right now. And then putts and takeses how credits is looking and its because they have come back to the pack if you look at this 18month chart of the First Trust Internet etf, a very f. A. A. N. G. Like etf, 35 of it is f. A. A. N. G. Essentially, and it behaves that way, against the s s p, this is when we really started getting full of the f. A. A. N. G. Story and its come back and matched the s p 500 over the last 18 months and if you look at a market cap basis what has happened, if you took each of the f. A. A. N. G. Stocks, netflix and alphabet parent of google, and said, what was their peak market cap it was 2. 7 trillion it wasnt all in the same day at the same moment, but it was around the same time, more over a year ago current market cap around 2. 3 trillion a loss of about 400 billion net market cap from their respective peaks. The peak, 25. 1 trillion, down to 24. 5 or so the majority of whats been lost in the s p 500 aggregate market cap can be reflected in whats happened to f. A. A. N. G. Doesnt mean f. A. A. N. G. Is all that mattered. It also means the rest of the market has actually done okay on a relative basis, but it does show you that the market needs a different story if, in fact, the big megacap Growth Stocks are not going to lead, guys. Some astonishing statistics there. If we went back to the first chart, the takeaway would be that if f. A. A. N. G. Isnt leading, the best the overall market cap weighted s p 500 could do is sort of stay flat. Yes, you could think, a lot of else has to go right. I would point out, things like apple, microsoft so these huge consensus winner big growth stock names that are working very well, they dont happen to be f. A. A. N. G. , which are under regulatory pressures and all the rest thank you very much, mike well check back in with you, soon well, right now, you can see that the stocks, we can pull up the market chart here. We are lower for the dow by just a hair, about a tenth of a percent here, s p 500 down by twotenths of a percent, nasdaq composite down about onetenth of a percent, as we still have 51 minutes left to go in todays trading session. Joining us now, alicia levine, chief strategist, and it seems like based on your notes, youre not so surprised about todays action this is sort of what youre expecting. Youve got 12 risk factors that are priced in, but 11 that arent priced in so you could go either way we see this quarter as being very, very choppy. And as weve discussed in the past, october is full of big headlines. Very difficult market to invest in, when you really have these binary headlines that youre waiting for. I agree with dan here that, you know, the december 15th consumer tariffs really have to be put off the table. So there doesnt have to be a deal, but if theres some kind of, you know, status or some kind of just keeping it stable, while were still talking with china, thats probably enough to get some risk back into the market here. Other than that, we just really see this as a very choppy market, dependent on macro headlines. Very hard to invest when youre waiting for macro headlines. And what do you make of the analysis that mike just did there . I was waiting for that. Its really interesting, when you think about apple, its right back to its prior alltime highs, two bucks away from it. Really a smidge away you know, f. A. A. N. G. In general, i like to use maga, its microsoft, amazon, google, and apple. When you think about that, that is 40 of the nasdaq 100 now, amazon and google from vus sta just stalled out apple is about to make it. Apple is up materially from its lows how much torque do you think it has to the upside if it were to break out and make a new high . And microsoft has been stuck in trading range for months when you look at these megacap names, there are headwinds even with apple, if you ring the bell and its a new high, i dont care what im most focused on is what is doing the heavy lifting its utilities and reits and staples, really expensive for not a whole heck of a lot of growth but deemed defensive. Thats not particularly establish with the s p, 2. 5 off the alltime highs in my opinion. Alicia, when we look at the the Economic Data. You could look at it grass half full, glass half empty we know the Manufacturing Sector is weakening, but were more of a servicesbased economy whats your viewpoint of where we go from here and if well talk ourself into a recession . We actually could talk ourselves into a recession on the manufacturing side and on the capex side so to the extent that ceo confidence is much worse than Consumer Confidence, thats where you have capex and investment and weve seen the falloff happen because of the uncertainty in whats happening with global trade. In the end, global trade doesnt really affect directly u. S. Gdp all that much, but its those secondary and tertiary effects that really hurt us. If you look at the jobs data from last week, it turns out that the nonsupervisory sector of the labor market actually had quite a pay boost, a wage boost. And that really did not make it to the topline headlines were still confident in the consumer here. We actually think the jobs number, if you look, was actually better than what it looked like on the wage side and to that extent, we think the Consumer Sector is probably okay but bottom line, take some risk off the table at this stage . Look, its an ugly market out there. Theres cheap money for ten years, funding, everything we have funded disrupters that are disrupting stable businesses with earnings and positive cash flow weve dented existing businesses without creating businesses with earnings or equity, but just a lot of debt. And i think ultimately, thats dangerous for the market in the longterm. Alicia, great to see you, as always thanks for joining us. Thank you weve got a news alert and its on facebook elan movie has the details new yorks attorney general met today with top regulators at the department of justice and the ftc to discuss its antitrust investigation into facebook the new york ags office put out a statement saying they have grave concerns over anticompetitive behavior at Large Tech Companies and theyre worried that facebooks actions may have put consumer data at risk of data breaches, reduced the quality of consumers choices, and increased the price of advertising now, remember that new york is leading tae ining the antitrust investigation into facebook, along with seven other state ags. Were told that a Bipartisan Group of state ags did take part in this meeting with the doj and the ftc. We will have to see how this plays into the dojs decision over whether to conduct its own investigation into facebook, guys, but for now, new yorks ag meeting with the doj and the ftc on facebook. Ylan, to what extent are we surprised to see those three different groups working together on this well, we have seen in the past that there has been some divergence and certainly some overlap at times between the different state and federal regulators i think it is significant that we know the state ags are willing into facebook, we know the ftc is looking into facebook, theres speculation that the doj will begin its own inquiry, so this is certainly fueling the rumors or concern that facebook could be the next target from the doj. Ylan, thanks so much for that dan, whats your take on this and whether the regulatory risks for these big tech stocks is real i think you said it yourself, its bipartisan. And its coming from the states and from the feds. And i think the one big issue right now, because its interesting because facebook this year made a new alltime high after having a very bad 2018 after all of these issues really came to the fore, you know, the fact of the matter is, advertisers havent left and users havent left so engagement is starting to drop off a little bit. I think 2020 is going to be a very defining year for the company like facebook, when you think about the duopoly that they are in with google, who is also alphabet, who is also now facing the ire from regulators, also, its going to be really interesting the only thing ill just mention, very different between facebook and Google Facebook has been spending over this year. Their Earnings Growth is expected to be flat year over year, despite the fact that sales are continuing to grow at a massive clip, about 26 . Its going to be 70 billion this year. So they might have already made the sort of investments to do the spend that they need to do to protect their platform from being weaponized the way it was in 16 dan, thanks for that. Lots more to come with dan, of course, throughout the first hour of the show also up next, Td Ameritrade out with its latest Investor Survey and it could give some clues about sentiment in some of the countrys biggest tech stocks. Well break that down, coming up and later, a big interview with campbell soups Ceo Mark Clouse since taking the job back in january the stock is up more than 30 since that time. Thats coming in st aupju bit stay tuned to closing bell. Well be back right after this about 42 minutes left to go. Markets marginally lower lets check on some individual market movers. Pepsico is planning to use 15 tesla electric semi trucks to replace its existing freight equipment. Analysts at Morgan Stanley says the deployment of the tesla trucks prove realworld validation of the value of the truck business sell equities and buy fixed income that was the trend in the latest Investor Movement index from Td Ameritrade and many popular tech names were right at the heart of the selling. Joining us now to talk about the trades and trends were seeing is j. J. Kineham, great to see you as always. Always a pleasure thanks for having me before diving into the individual sectors and stock, the headline was risk sentiment is softening people are taking risk off the table. They are. And it continues an 11month trend of being under the average from when we started this index. Whats interesting is you hit, i think, on the most interesting part of it risk may be people may not be taking as much risk, but the fact that theyre going into sixmonth and less fixed income. In fact, 70 of what weve had put into fixed income last month was in sixmonth and less terms. And so its like like 80 yeah, 80 in one year so i think people are looking for that selloff to get back in what continues to be strong and no real change in is these dividendpaying stocks with Interest Rates this low, people are looking for both Capital Appreciation as well as a dividend, because they feel theyre having a tougher time getting it elsewhere so when they are looking at equities, what names are they buying or did they buy in september . I found a couple of interesting related ones in my opinion. Disney and roku, roku having the big selloff so the last two weeks of the months, our clients were bigger buyers of that name after it started its big selloff and i think when you look at the streaming space, and one of the sells being netflix. So i think people have gone from, i want to own the producer of the content to i want to own the provider of the content or the distribution network, i guess i should say, of the content. A little bit more with roku. Now, disney is both the producer and the distributor, but i think that thats something that were seeing thats really interesting, is people are trying to figure out, whos going to be the winner in this streaming world . Where did apple stand apple stood as a sell again, which, you know, you and i talk about this every month, and we continue to see that story still remains our number one held stock. Its really interesting, when apple got to 200, we saw strong sellers. This month, if you look at the chart of september and you see that apple went back and forth around 220 so much, and our clients, every time it got over 220, were pretty heavy sellers of