Line with policy decisions with Market Expectations. And tech leading the charge with apple high on the back of bullish markets that are higher. S p up 1. 2 . Dow is up 232 points near the session highs joining us, mark tenler. Mark, trade was the mover as it was yesterday. More of it, day after day, the thing that continues to drive the market is the most recent news about trade. So, yesterday, there was less optimism about there potentially being a deal the market sells off today, theres less optimism, so the market rebounds but nevertheless, were stuck in this trading range of 28. 25, and 30. 25, right and i think its very unlikely that we break out of that range unless and until we actually get a trade deal and i think the likelihood of us getting a broad deal is unlikely i just dont think thats going to happen. It all depends what that narrow deal looks like. Or the october tariffs removed if theyre removed for good, thats bullish forponed all that great. Lets focus on the big stories, and khalayla tachie is following rye. Bob, well start with you. Highs out there, not a lot of new one. Target, one of the retailers great this year, ross stores, walmart, and very good group of stocks up, a new high for target oil is up, in the energy names like marathon, occidental, in the industrials, fedex, and the metals and the new low list a lot in the last several weeks. The tale of two stories if youre in the apartment business youre doing great new highs on member sx and all a part of the companys new highs. But if youre in the Shopping Center business, the opposite, new lows in signing property groups and mason one of the biggest shopper develops in the u. S. Not all reits acting the same way. Thank you very much, bob. China gearing up for talking, kayla tachie has the latest ambassadors are expected to brief robert lighthizer. Lighthizer in turn is expected to talk to President Trump on highlevel meetings tomorrow and friday and once to yields another truce but escalated by escalation on a number of fronts by both sides the variable on this time around is the same, and that is how President Trump chooses to respond. Wilf and courtney. Doll we fe we feel that the president s team is starting to fashion towards a partial deal did lighthizer like a partial deal well, i dont think at any point in this process have all advisers been on the same page with regard to what the best course of action is. To that point, you even this week had advisers coming out with different messages. On one hand you had larry ludlow saying if china closes the marketing caps then we may be able to put to rest the issues and then Peter Navarro saying, no, clearly deal or no deal. Theyre trying to see what it will take to get this agreement. Now, the fed is putting out its september minutes, just did so last hour highlighting a growing divide about how to frame fed policy in line with Market Expectations. Weve spoken with three fed officials here on cnbc since the last rate cut and asked all of them what they plan to do at the next meeting. I dont have to say today, in fact, i wont say today, because i think its really important that we really look at the incoming information that were going to get as we work up to the end of the month meeting so, i think this is a particularly important environment, where youre very attune to what is incoming economic and Financial Information telling you. I still have an open mind and more data until the meeting actually occurs. I dont think i should prejudge it at this point weve already had two easings, easings dont have impact immediately. Id go to the end of the year, id like to reserve judgment i dont like the prejudgment meetings well see how data come in if you guys are right and i should be more optimistic, ill certainly take that on board lets bring in chief economist at jpmorgan. Thanks for joining us. Thank you lets start with the minutes, what were your Key Takeaways and did it alter your expectation for future policy . Well, i guess the key takeaway was, as you said, there was a lot of division as to the appropriate course of policy, at least at the time of the meeting in september however, that shouldnt be too much of a surprise you may recall after the september meeting, we got the dots which showed all of the forecasts and showed a lot of division in terms of where they see policy going this year in that sense, the minutes arent all that they added a little color, but i dont think they changed the narrative all that much. I think we also have to remember, some People Matter more than others, right . Yesterday, we heard from chair powell who obviously matters the most and he was talking an onside risk from Global Growth and that they would act if appropriate to head off those risks. So that to me sounded like he was content with the market placing and a cut at the end of the month which it is. So it didnt sound like he was really pushing back against that i think among all of the votes that counts, his counts more and i think thats where the committee is going in terms of minutes, i dont think they changed the story relative to what we knew at 1 59 we talked to pour ed ted to e bills. He said its not qe. Well, its qe4, except what theyve already done i think its already on a limited scale. Nonetheless, it looks like the fed is definitely cueing and theres a 50 ish probability of a second cut before the end of the year i think thats likely as well. So, i think the fed has just committed and they continue to communicate the fact that they are ready to step in and make sure that the economy continues in this expansion mode, especially given the fact that a lot of this economic state da has been deteriorating these ism numbers were not good, right . Mike, do you think it was as much as qe or something less significant . No, i definitely dont think it was qe. Qe is buying longer term bonds to push down longer term Interest Rates if theyre buying treasury bills that wont affect longer term Interest Rates from 2007, when the Balance Sheet normally expanded to meet the publics demand for liquidity whether reserves or currency so i definitely dont think this is qe. What about the fact we did hear specific mention from powell about the yield curve, i think more so than before about possibly being rejected or resteepen it well, theyve talked about the yield curve as a signal of pending recession. We saw that in the minutes obviously, there are factors conflating the signal there a little bit a big part of that is global Interest Rates and negative Interest Rates around the world which is leading to flight the capital into the u. S i think the debate is still open i guess we kind of split the difference we do think the curve is signaling slower growth. But we dont necessarily think its signaling recession now mike, powell kept saying the fed will act as appropriate. Is that enough does he need to be a little more transparent to give us future guidance well, i mean, the decision hasnt been made its a committee decision, theres more data to come over the next three weeks but i think right now, the wording and the body language is consistent with the wording that useful seen ever since the midsummer where they pivoted in a way that signaled further easing i dont think this is a game of code words but right now the language sounds like its incumbent on the data, to the upside for them not to ease by the end of the month, in my opinion. Im impressed that you read this body language as well thats a tough skill my question, michael, in terms of the data over the last week or two, do you think its gotten meaningfully worse or not . I dont think its meaningfully worse its been slowing over the course of the year Third Quarter gdp coming in at 1. 5 and private payrolls running around 120,000 per month all of that is quite slow than it was from the beginning of the year and last year its not falling off a cliff, but it is slowing. And i think you saw that today in the job numbers that are edging lower its not a free fall by any stretch of the imagination, but an economy thats slowing. Michael, great to see you after the break, is wall street turning bearish on fedex . Well break down the sentimentship next and later, well speak with one analyst who just slashed his estimates on netflix by 20 . And as we head to the break, heres a data tracker. Missing estimates 0. 4 rise and the jolts read from 7. 05 million in august to 7. 2 million. Well right back with closing bell. Make fitness routine with pure protein. High protein. Low sugar. Tastes great high protein. Low sugar. So good high protein. Low sugar. 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Weve got about 46 minutes let to go in trading the dow is higher, almost at session highs, by 240 points at this point lets check on individual Market Movers lionsgate reportedly considering slitting off stars through a separate company or other vehicle that stock is higher by 4 and shares of irobot are falling after Raymond James downgrades that stock from underperformed to performed and pricing thats pressuring its stock, you can see down by more than 3. 6 we have 45 minutes left to trade. Lets get to mike for todays market dashboard hi, mike hi, wilf. Heres what weve got, freightened questions. Thats what wall street is asking about fedex and rock roll band and well take a focus on that and then, dull, with style that seems to be boring stocks still in fashion on wall street. Well measure that and then a mild jolt, a look at the new job indicator we got today. Freighted questions, somebody who is trying to push the bull case and kind of threw a towel on it at bernstein you can see distribution has gone radically from very, very bullish on a consensus basis a year ago to pretty much being 50 50 a high performing stock from years. Just a little over half, half of economists recommending it and the targets, slashed thats not telling you that wall street sees a whole lot. On a contrarian basis, thats pretty good. You have to get a runout, if the stock is going to struggle, its going to bottom. And also when you look at longterm, this is a tenyear trend in fedex its now below 11. This is basically longterm downtrend. Thats when earnings were basically zero the problem is forward estimates keep coming down, too. You can see relative to the s p 500, trading roughly half the market at some point the market is going to feel like this is getting done over negativity then again, i said that before the last Earnings Report and those forward earnings got rolled down. And all of a sudden it looked like a value track, not a value ride and in the former rivals . Fedex is bearing the brunt. Fedex, just its leverage to air freight, much more of a global story as compared to domestic. Thats why fedex has struggled, of course, the breaking of the relationship with amazon mike, thanks. Whats the take on these guys, are they linked to the trade news yeah, its really tough to get excited about fedex and or it when you throw in competition from amazon doing their own logistics. These are companies i would say right now would not be on my buy list, anywhere near it mike showed us that longer term chart on fedex. Its kind of gone against the trade. Yeah, it has. But at the same point in time, theres been all of this talk about increased competition, you know, fedex so, the u. S. Economy has been strong, right but globally, weve seen weakness now for several years and fedex has high exposure to the global economy, not just the u. S. Economy right and after the break, wall street weighs in on media. Well round up new analysts calls on disney, net tix and roku and later, consumer bullets. The tests of teslas smart feature that says you can be driven around automatically. Well discuss that, next will it feel like the wheend of a journey . P working, or the beginning of something even better . When you prepare for retirement with pacific life, you can create a lifelong income. So you have the freedom to keep doing whatever is most meaningful to you. A reliable income that lets you retire, without retiring from life. Thats the power of pacific. Ask your financial professional about pacific life today. Through the at t network, edgetoedge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. From managing inventory. To detecting and preventing threats. To scaling up your production. Giving you a nice big edge over your competition. Thats the power of edgetoedge intelligence. Servicenow put our this changes everything. Youre right sir. Everything. No not everything, i mean youre still blatantly sucking up to me gary. Brilliantly observed, sir. Always three steps ahead. Six steps ahead. Sixteen. So many steps. You done . A million steps ahead. Servicenow. Works for you. Welcome back on closing bell, today, were featuring media calls. Jpmorgan cutting its earnings outlooks on disney for platform and choppy integration of fox assets 95 cents, compared to previous estimates of 1. 05 outraising it from 1. 30 to 110. It could go from user base of 31 million to 72 million and rosenblatt slashing its price target on netflix from 320 a share to 264 on prediction on apple and disney, as well as forecasting a q4 miss. And isi had its target earlier this week. For more on netflix, lets bring in the analyst behind rosenblatts note. Bernie, thanks for joining us here the stakes are going to get higher do you think theyre going to whiff . Exactly thanks were on the treat for 4q, 10 below the street consensus is 7 . So how much have you reduced your actual revenue estimates or earnings estimates, compared to the price target is there a multiple . Exactly longterm free cash list came down 5 on higher cash content we think increased competition will drive you to spend more on content, 15 on the multiples. Right now on price target, 4. 5 times 20201 revenue how you have assessing it its going to be competition. Disney with november 12th launching of it. A huge amount of pressure. Theyve never faced this competition before subscriber ads is going to be down its a big year for 2020 its kind of big. No change in the actual price, 265. Neutral is where you want. You should have cut the price tag earlier . Rightly so, probably could have the majority of our competitors, 70 of the street is buy owe the minority of us are as the quarter that weve got ahead of us, talk to us what you expect on the subscriber numbers, and if they were to miss expectations how they are yeah. The guidance 7 million subscribers globally added and really comes down to the content. The content slates a lot better in the 3q, than 2q. You shorange is the new black and then the politician was late in the corner. And rotten tomato had a bullish outlook from there mark, what do you make of the media space, are you interested in buying netflix here i prefer disney right here. I think the valuation is more attractive theres more upside. Theyve got a huge major catalyst in front of them with the rollout of disney plus i agree can they have fantastic content, but what im wondering is is it bingable content . Is it addictive content . Yeah, when my daughters were young, they probably watched frozen 20 times, they watched it a lot but are they going to draw viewers back again. Im looking forward to the breaking bad movie coming out and thats great for netflix but when you look at it when it comes to the different companies, i dont think netflix is going to get themultiple that it has in the past due to increased competition. But its going to be a winner take all market. I think theres room for severals there does disney really need bingable content to be a winner . From a stock perspective, theres so much there . They dont. Plus, they have hulu theyre majority owners of hulu. And something that doesnt get talked about a lot when were talking about the streaming wars is, the people that are going to lose are going to be the cable providers, right consumer still wants live tv and you can get that through hulu live tv you can get that through youtube live tv. So, theres still an opportunity there outside of streaming original content quick i was going to say because of the broadband, i think what you need to be bearish on, if streaming competitions comes that drives more core. Thats Media Companies with the rating on fox. Great to see you. Thanks for joining us. Thank you very much weve got 34 minutes left of trade. Were high to the tune of 240 points on the dow. Were almost at session highs. Coming up, weve got last chance trade on the video game space. And up next the hunt for yield. Well talk to the Portfolio Manager on opportunities and Treasury Bonds ticking higher with the 10 at 1. 4 , just about where weerjstda we dyeery. 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