Balloons increasing 26 to just a little less than 1 trillion. Joining us for the hour is chris verona, Strategas Research partners here we are, we can see it, we can taste it, a new record high and everyone is really calm around hiere. The lack of euphoria is telling. Theres this great divide between perception and reality what are the headlines impeachment, recession, china, pmi under 50 but the reality is, signs of cylicality are starting to show up in every corner of the globe. You see it with semis and with trucking stocks, german dax is at a 52week high, the banks are acting better. I think the tone of the market is so different than what the tone of the front page of the paper says every day and i think thats bullish great to have chris with us for the whole first hour of the show, particularly given that we might have that record alltime closing high for the s p 500 the key level to keep an eye on, by the way, 3025. 9. We are at 3022 at the moment lets focus in on the big stories were watching today Kayla Tausche has the latest on trade. Bob pisani is covering the surge in stocks after that move. Josh lipton, mike santoli, and David Garrity are digging into amazons earnings for us principle s in u. S. china trade talks spoke by phone this morning. The call madehe headway on specific issues and the two sides are close to finalizing some sections of the agreement President Trump and president xi are expected to sign that deal in a few weeks in chile, but one person is not happy with where things stand and thats white house trade Hawk Peter Navarro im told by three sources that navarro has been agitating to try to get President Trump to make china commit to stronger language on intellectual property and technology enforcement. So far, im told that effort has been unsuccessful. Reached for comment, navarro called this fake news, but certainly worth noting that there is some agitation behind the scenes guys kayla, i guess the key person, if he also was not happy in terms of the president s team, would be ambassador lighthizer reporter yes, but ambassador lighthizer has also acknowledged that tariffs above a certain level are not sustainable for the u. S. Economy while he was an early advocate of tariffs, im told he was not an advocate of the tariffs that were put on in september and the tariffs that were set to come in december so perhaps sympatico on floont lets get to bob pisani driving the market to new highs. Bob . And kaylas commentary is a very important reason why we moved up today lets look at why were having the rally today. That trade talk optimism, the primary reason were moving up u. S. Consumer, number one reason the market is holding up around the world. Visa, capital one had very good comments about the u. S. Consumer and we had good guidance from intel. Semiconductors are bellwethers for the global economy, for the consumer economy, intels comment also very good and their guidance was good. There you see lamb research, a Semiconductor Capital equipment companies. Lamb research had good comments other day. Apple is at a 52week high as well a lot of industrials despite the Global Concerns hitting new highs. Sherwin williams, also 52week highs. Weve got new highs, but where is the volume. Boy, am i getting complaint from wall street. The volume is really disappointing weak for equities, etfs and equity volumes. I think theres a lack of conviction about where the trade talks are going. The market is expensive. Everyone wants the market to break out zdecisively or break down all the big names, 50 normal volume half the normal volume this week guys, back to you. Bob, thank you very much for that see you later in the hour. Shares of amazon are under pressure, although well off their lows of the session after an earnings miss, only down around 2 . We were down as much as 8 earlier. Josh lipton has details for us hi, josh so, wilf, amazon delivered guidance that spooked investors. Its forecast for q4 operating income well below what amazon expected that as amazon is in spending mode to make good on its goal to offer prime members oneday delivery the stock in the red, but as you mentioned, wilf, well off lows rbcs mark mahaney was on cnbc earlier today, saying, he would have bought the dip. Its the kind of investment, mahaney is arguing the company should make as it deepens the mote around its businesses guys, back to you. Thank you for that, josh lets send it over to mark santoli for todays market dashboard. Here is what we have. We happy few a few giant retail names that have dominated that sector and a couple of pictures on that stand on tiptoes thats what the market is doing. Both the breath measures and the indexes themselves, touching those alltime highs and a gentle condition this is a look at the credit market a pretty strong underpinning of the stock market this year zpooi and finally, the greater share take a look at how good investors have had it over the last decade. So we first take a look at two different etfs tracking the retail sector. Xrt is one we look at a lot. Its equal waited. Every stock counts the same in that one the rth is market cap weighted that one has vastly outperformed biggest holding, amazon, 19. 5 in the rth but also, home depot, walmart, costco, target they are the ones that are working and outperformed and it shows you essentially it has been a winnertakemost market amazon down 1. 5 today, but yeartodate, its been a big, big driver of this one and also since amazon is both retailer and f. A. A. N. G. Tech stock, fdn is an etf that essentially acts like f. A. A. N. G. The traditional f. A. A. N. G. Names are about 40 of it. That is actually language thats in white right here, language a little bit, whereas the traditional tech etf driven by apple, semiconductors, software has outperformed. So two different ways to see how amazon is shading a couple of these different an indexes, guy. Mark, im not sure about next couple of themes, but is the first one some shakespeare, some henry the 5th. You might be on to something. I didnt pick up the latter ones, but i love first one we are a band of brothers. Im looking forward to the rest of the dashboard brothers and sisters. We are. Im just referencing shakespeare. Right, right. Shakespeare was not so good at throwing back in the day we need to fix that, citizisl im saying for more, lets bring in mark garrity. When were talking about amazon, where were expecting tidings of great joy for the retail season, amazon is delivering some rather scroogi scroogish outlooks whats behind how theyre seeing retail for the rest of the quarter. Historically, theyve usually been very cautious and sandbagged going into a forward quarter. And for a name like amazon, the Fourth Quarter is quite significant. In the broader sense, it looks as if the u. S. Consumer is in fairly good shape with respect to the Fourth Quarter with, i think, overall holiday sales thought to be up about . Now, amazon, given what theyve done to strengthen their position in terms of oneday shipping and also hiring 75,000 new workers in the quarter certainly seems to be gearing up to capture the lions share of that gain. What concerns you about the quarter . I would say, a tech, you know, a tech for this market from that standpoint, as we look at what the profit driver is for amazon, amazon web services, some people were picking the nits, that yao een decelerating growth there i would make the argument, even though growth decelerated, top line to 9 billion in the quarter, that still is very strong and it certainly confirms what we stau from intel, in terms of intel seeing strength in Data Center Chips chris, from the chart side of things, when you see an intraday recovery like this like a massive stock, is that encouraging . Its impressive the price action from amazon today, you have to give if hat tip to it. Reminiscent of caterpillar earlier in the week, but what i think is notable, this is the second or third time this earnings season where a big bellwether has missed and it hasnt taken the whole sector down with it we saw it with boeing, cat, texas instruments. Didnt hit the semis i like the fact they have been able to celebrate the miss and the stock. I think its a very strong sign. When you look at the challenges for amazon to get these Big Investments in cloud and in shipping and in warehousing. I think its a matter of seeing the execution and seeing at the same time that others like a walmart doesnt necessarily try to step up and work from the same playbook or do so as well as amazon does fringe that standpoint amazon has the mantle and will continue to hold it i think bob pisani touched on a point. Stepping back from amazon itself, are you getting concerned about the political threat i would argue amongst tech, its a social media issue. Its the fact that these companies dont accept the responsibilities that news organizations such as this does in terms of providing factually correct information. Obviously, were not going to see what Mark Zuckerbergs results are until after the close next wednesday, but clearly, zuckerberg would do his company, facebook, a real service if he were to say, we will step back from doing political advertising entirely for the 2020 election cycle, and perhaps as a result of that, you know, serve to diminish some of the interest from a regulatory standpoint and david, upstairs, you were talking to me just a little bit about the access to easy, cheap money right now. Weve got a fed meeting coming up next week how are you seeing the inflows into the bond market certainly, if you were look to look at spreads, theyre not widened out to a point where you would say, this is a recession ariel indicat recessionary indicator ratings agencies seem to be lightening up and making it easier for subpar credits to get access so is there off risk at the margin i would say anytime that indications come up that the gatekeepers are not necessarily doing their job, people need to be concerned thank you very much for joining us were on the record close watch. And here we have the Dow Jones Industrials about up 160 points, half a percent or so you can find out where you can still get opportunities with stocks near this unchartered territory. Up next, the outlook for bank stocks and how financial is fueling financial growth, when were joined by wells fargos mike mayo. As we head to break, heres a check on our data tracker. Consumer sentiment this month coming in slightly lower than expectations on concerns about e adwawith china were back in a couple of minutes. Do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging . Prevagen is the number one pharmacistrecommended memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Is that pgim, we see alpha emerging in the trendsete . Driving specific sectors of outperformance. Where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry. A leap into the digital era draws youthful populations to mobile banking and ecommerce. Trade and travel surge between emerging markets. Every day, our 1,100 investment professionals around the world search out opportunities for alpha. Partner with pgim, the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. Welcome back citigroup promoting jane fraser to president and head of Global Consumer the stock is up about a percent and a half today, along with all of the banks trading higher. Joining us to talk about the banking sector, the managing director and head of u. S. Large cap research at wells fargo. Citi is mikes top pick. Thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. Lets talk about this change and theres been another highprofile recent change in leadership below mike at citi. Is that a sign theyre doing things well or not well, citi is doing some things well and some things not. So, look, this quarter was a very difficult quarter for citigroup and the industry you had a rate cut and a familiarity yield curve and they still grew revenues faster than expenses thats fantastic and thats fantastic for citigroup and the other large Banks Like Bank of america and jpmorgan but what they havent done well is they still have worst in class efficiency, returns, and stock market valuation but thats not an opportunity. We think citi is rowing in the right direction, but maybe they need to get a speedboat to where they want to get to a little bit faster a fresh set of eyes with james fraser as head of consumer has the potential to help. Whats the significance we have a change of cfo, a change with the head of the Investment Bank leaving, and a change at the head of consumer is that a vote of confidence at the board or is that position under threat, as well. If you have worst in class returns, even if you have qualified individuals, you dont have the right team on the field. I think its a matter to have getting a fresh set of eyes in a few different areas. And i think citigroup made a mistake. In 2017, citigroup said, quote, our restructuring is over. Your restructuring is not over when you have worst in class returns. Youre now a new head of wholesale, a fresh set of eyes that should only be good to maybe reengineer city group more aggressively their information sharing agreement expires in ten weeks they can be friends, they can be foes, as long as city moves in the right direction, gets the higher returns we expect, gets the improved efficiency that we expect, we think the stock can increase by double over the next three to four years, but plan b could be that value act exerts more pressure to possibly make changes at the top. Mike corbitts not free here the indication is hell be around for the next three to five years and jane fraser could be the first woman as ceo of a major bank bir but everybody has to prove their job every day. You said that citigroup may need a speedboat to effect some of those changes forwards efficiency could value act be that speedboat . Well, the way value act operate, and weve written about this, they work behind the scenes theyre the quiet activists. Theyre not going to be coming on cnbc. But when you look at what they did with microsoft, its slow and steady they are, the way i view them, as an adviser that also owns a lot of stock, but if push comes to shove, they have held a proxy contest in the past. But there could be some influence influence behind the scenes i want to switch influence and talk about another stock thats cheap trading at or below book value thats Goldman Sachs last week i caught up with chairman and ceo David Solomon and i asked him whether he was frustrated that the valuation was so low and not rewarding him for investments hes been making im not annoyed i just expect and understand that in the context of a Large Public Company like this, its going to be a proven i think the team has executed incredibly well. Were building for the longterm. I feel good about the progress that were making. Would i be pleased if world recognized it sooner sure but i dont expect that. I know that we have to deliver and the onus is on us to deliver over time for our shareholders and im confident we will do that mike, where do you stand on this on the earnings call, he said, three to five years is the time it takes to see the real return do you think it will come sooner than that . Goldman sachs has the lowest noncrisis stock market valuation in its history so david solman, youre right, the stock market is saying, prove it so what we need, we need guideposts along the way the good news is David Solomon is leading a push for more transparency and we would like to see some metrics that we can track. Having said that, as you said, the stock trades around tangible book value for a company thats grown book value twice as fast as the s p over the last few decades. So it is very cheap. And you have a buy on that as well yes mike from Wells Fargo Securities we have got just under 40 minutes left to trade. We are higher on all the major indices. The s p is standing at 3022. The record alltime closing high, 3029 we were above it briefly during todays session, but below it just as we stand with 49 minutes left to trade. Softbank getting downgraded by one bank, which is calling its bailout of wework, quote, throwing good money after bad. The details of that, coming up and later, we discuss how you should adjust your stock strategy if Elizabeth Warren becomes the president. A few specific ideas from a new report after the bell. I get it all the time. Have you lost weight . Of course i have ever since i started renting from national. Because national lets me lose the wait at the counter. And choose any car in the aisle. And i dont wait when i return, thanks to drop go. At national, i can lose the wait. And keep it off. Looking good, patrick. I know. vo go national. Go like a pro. Doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacistrecommendeding . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Welcome back to closing bell. Guggenheim initiating uber at a buy with a 40 price target. The firm says it sees uber benefiting from deescalating competition in the u. S. And rising prices driving a strong second half of 2019 for the company. Wall street keeping its bullish outlook on zpon, despite a weak forecast. Heres a partial list of all the sellside analysts cutting their price targets, but keeping a biooutperform on the stock barclays, mizzou, you get the picture. Sun trust, the only firm to raise its price target from 2,200 to 2350, particularly given the stocks intraday recovery makes it even more funny that all those other companies jumped in on the bandwagon and cut their targets. And jeffries downgrades softbank to hold and lowering its price target to 20. 90 from 26 the firm says troubles with its wework investments sets up an desirable pregnant for the company, unless its strategy is clarified, theres no anchor to valuation. Fascinating on this in terms of softbank itself. Talk that theyre going to downgrade their value from 100 billion to 5 billion or 6 billion. Its a slippery slope to where you end up and one feels like its way more than 5 billion they need to write it down. Its a remarkable story its almost the antispeculation story. If this was 20 years ago, fall of 999, people would have com, bought it, there would have been confetti on the floor of the exchange its tough for us to get too bearish when theres no that euphoria up there. You bring up uber. Right now. There are