Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240713 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 13, 2024

October 18 futures indicated up about 50 points for the dow s p indicating to be up about six points all of this riding on the big number it is jobs friday expecting an increase of 75,000 none farm jobs and increase of Unemployment Rate of 3. 6 . The numbers are weighed down by the strike at General Motors those striking are treated as unemployed thats important to remember overnight in china, new data showed factory activity slank. Analysts expected it to pick up from last month. All of this raises the stakes for the trade war. Eunice yoon has more for us now. Thank you, becky. That official number was different from the private survey that came out showing factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in two years. It could be because the private survey tracks small and private companies as open toesed to large ones. China this morning proved to be a tech power house the goal here for 50,000 they keep on serving now with the 5g enabled phone apple is on 4g and the huawei phone is 10 times as fast. That could bode poorly for apple prospects here the fact that government is being very aggressive for its roll out the operators are also very aggressively marketing the 5g services not everyone is convinced it will be a huge advantage. When we were testing out those services, it was interesting, you could still download services and aprils pretty fast the big question is how will all of this play out if you have a driverless car in that kind of world still Big Questions as to exactly how this is all going to play out eunice, lets start with the numbers in terms of decline and production and official numbers that come through on all of this what is the appetite for trade talk or trade deal at this point . We are seeing the main. What appears to be clearer and clearer are the chinese authorities are willing to take over that cold day for a while and make sure it doesnt get a deal the chinese will make some compromises. Some of state subsidies and important ways in which they run their economy, they are not so willing to move. Today happened to be a day when the authorities were talking about a major fourday meeting that took place this week in china. All about strengthening the Party Leadership making sure president xi jinping will be core of that leadership. The communica that came out said the state is going to have a very, very Important Role saying the state has a visible hand in the economic priorities. It was all about how the party needed to improve and control government at all the levels the message sent is that the government will not want to give in on subsidies or any matters that would make it look weak state subsidies has not been something ive heard talked about. But state subsidies is other issue for the world. It is still important for the government here. Especially now, one of the things i heard more recently from china experts who are chinese. They are saying the message they got now from trump and the administration is that it is important for china to be selfreliant the government here needs to be sure china is selfreliant they need even more state subsidies. It is a confusing message. Specifically on the economy, they wanted to be sure they had a visible and invisible hand you want to encourage the private sector eunice, real quick. We talk about it so much ive been worried that we the u. S. May well be behind. How much of the roll out is being juxtapos to what we are doing in the u. S. And this iphone issue you just discussed. Quite a bit today again, the communist party had a global piece about how the u. S. Is lagging behind and that they are the ones that will lose out. In china, we are raising ahead there is an emphasis on how because the u. S. From chinas perspective being narrow minded on this issue on 5g, that consumers there are going to suffer thank you the complicated part is that we will have faster 5g in this country. It will just cost more from consumers perspective from the build out of the infrastructure in the u. S. Is so much more expensive there. What is happening is they are using low band and midband spectrum that can go through walls and stuff. It isnt as fast is it requires less infrastructure. They have to be relatively close to you because it is running at a high level of frequent one si. They are doing it in some big nfl stadiums now there are parts of the stadium that cant get 5g. You need that many cells to get the coverage especially in new york city it is a huge issue it is a big fight about who will win this and how much it is going to cost. Lets talk about wework. Ad ad adam neumann facing troubles being accused of sustaining a gender pay gap a new male that was hired for the same position when she was out was offered an an sul al vi of 400,000. She was just paid 150,000 he asked her her plans to get married and have a baby in her job interview. And said mat earnity leave was a vacation and smoked marijuana in front of her on transport planes she had to tell him she couldnt travel with him anymore. I read the suit. It doesnt make sense. You say, it actually does make sense. Especially smoking pot on the plane and having to tell him that. It is a young culture i dont know if anybody knows the rules. Led by a guy who thinks hes jesus. The behavior is repulsive there has been an impact on the market the money has come out of the ipo market it is a positive impact because the money is now flowing back to megacap technology, Large Cap Technology kwiendi kwie finding where there are quality Cash Companies where you have sustainable earnings over time that is good for the markets so this money coming out of the ipo is actually helping to lift the market the bad news is is that youll get your tires kicked thats a good thing. You wash out the garbage this is the emperor has new clothes thing. We talked about the ipos here with expectations for next year. Not what weve seen. It is slowing down but long term, you are right its a good thing. President trump has filed paperwork to change his residence den si from new york to florida he says his primary residence is palm beach the first lady filed identical paperwork. He tweeted, i cherish new york and the people of new york unfortunately despite the fact that i paid millions in taxes, i have been treated very badly by leaders of the state the governor there tweeting, good riddance. Not like he paid taxes here anyway florida, hes all yours. He paid no taxesin new york i dont know the full history because he wont tell us about all of that. Two issues here. One, lots of very wealthy people in new york who are leaving. Because of the new tax law. By the way, he did that lets call a spade a spade second question of course, does he ever come back to new york . I thinkthere is a third question, is this political. The election is coming up, florida is a swing state you think by becoming a florian will help him . I thought about that too. Being a new yorker didnt help him forget it you are never going to win new york hes a victim of the tax law he set up here. How many of our guests have we seen move to florida a lot of guests lee cooperman. Well talk about that. Does this mean fifth avenue will get opened up a little bit because hes here less frequently commuting, traffic. The economic harm those barriers created for Stores Including tiffany is real. Compared to lvmh. Maybe they knew this was coming when we come back, it is launch day for apples new streaming service. Well take a quick look at what it to mean, thats next. Well talk more about streaming, twitters ad policy and her interview with Edward Snoden squawk box will be right back. Each day our planet awakens with signs of opportunity. But with opportunity comes risk. And to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. We help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage Interest Rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. All so they can manage their risks and move forward. Its simply a matter of following the signs. They all lead here. Cme group how the world advances. Here, hello starts with hi mple. How can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone [ camera clicking ] wifi up there . Ahhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. Welcome back. Apple will roll out its streaming service making it free for every customer who bought a new apple product. Priced below 5 a month. Joining us to talk about the High Expectations for apple is our guest. And cofounder and managing partner at loop ventures well start out talking about what this means, what the expectations are it is different than the other streaming services 5 and free to many people. Not only is it cheaper and free, thats the right price for it it only has nine titles. People are trained on netflix in addition to a giant license catalog. On apple, you are not getting that its nine titles and you are not even getting entire seasons at its launch it makes sense for them to give it away. Next year, when a bigger majority of people will choosing to pay for it, theyll know what they are buying. It sounds more like the amazon strategy where you are getting it free if you are signed up for prime anyway i think that analogy is important. We zero in on the content line up the more important strategy, similar to amazon is to bring together a lot of different products for consumers it is the only company that can go end to end. They are just filling in that element similar to what amazon has done with prime video. Gene, the fact that tv plus is being accounted for as services revenue, does that indicate that Going Forward, eventually this is going to be free throughout and no one will be paying or it will be higher content costs related to it . Is. Content costs will go up. It is at about 1 to 2 billion. Netflix is about 15 billion signing up 200 million people, undoubtedly, people will forget to cancel and be shepparded in there. When we put all of this together at 5 a month, this probably adds somewhere around 3 to revenue. It is measurable most important is this theme of bringing all these products together in the text staples company. Gene, two questions one, do you think theyll ultimately need to buy a library . No. You think they wont materially need more content to get the price higher the way you are talking about . Let me take a step back i believe they could when you say a library, i think of the longtale netflix when you think of iconic. Like lions gate or a studio that had a library of 1,000 films or tv shows to build this out because of the issue you are talking about. Even if you are able to produce another 10 to 15 shows, is that enough to sustain it i can tell you what apple is saying, they are having fewer titles i know what they are saying just asking what is apples strategy with a lot of fanfare, apple announces the news plus. Does anybody have experience in the take up of news plus you know im an apple crazy person i dont think it has been that high i dont think theyve said. The piece we are not talking about whether people will be willing to pay, is are those titles any good . You only have one title and that is game of thrones and it is that good. People will pay 5 for that. Even if there is only a few people have to see, theyll still pay. The problem is, you have to find fire in a bottle every couple of months finding the fire in a bottle for the masses is one thing but hitting all the nieces this is value ad and locking you into the eco system. I wonder wherewith this all leads to is this an overall subscription model. I think thats the place apple will end up. It feels more like amazon strategy it works for what apple is already doing. The photos and the music the hardware is the key element. Every two years, the upgrade you dont have to be worried about it the one bundle to rule them all. They are building it they are tired of being reliant on the iphone being the only thing. Thank you for coming in gene, it is good to see you. Coming up when we return. The jobs report isnt the only data point well tell you where pintrest shares are plummeting in early trading. Take a look at that stock. Off by 21 well explain why when we return ladies and gentlemen mini is a different kind of car. For a different kind of drive. Ladies and gentlemen for the drive to create a new kind of family car, that became a new kind of race car. For the drive to rebel, zag. For the drive thats inside you. And inside us. Thats the drive under the hood of every mini. Because every mini is. For the drive. Time for the executive edge this morning pintrest is plummeting today adjusted earnings beat forecast but revenues fell. They spent more on advertising to attract more small and midsized businesses. Looking like off by 21. 5 points right now. The problem is Everyone Wants growth beyond the u. S. Pintrest had the growth. Thats the problem the revenue is with domestic users. They added 22 million users. 2 million only in the oous the problem is International Growth there is less spend internationally in terms of advertising. They are getting paid more in the u. S. The u. S. Is bringing in more i think it is 2. 93. The focus needs to be here d domestically growing do you think that is strategic with have they run out of runway in the u. S. There is a theory there is saturation in the u. S. It opened in april it has fallen back below the ipo price. Youll find some support but the messaging is important how are you going to grow the domestic user base take a look at this one too u. S. Steel reported a loss in Third Quarter. Revenue slightly higher than estimates. Sales dropped 18 from a year ago amid fallen prices and fallen demand for steel. When we return, well talk about job reports and other data you need to be prepared for. S p futures up by six nasdaq up by 21. A lot riding on that number that hits in just two hours time. That was wonderful. I loved it. That was great. Not bad. Al gd. Re was parts that werent relyoo it was pretty bad awful hey. Boo. Through the at t network, edgetoedge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. From finding out whats selling best. To managing your fleet. To collaborating remotely with your teams. Giving you a nice big edge over your competition. Thats the power of edgetoedge intelligence. Rowithout the Commission Fees and account minimums. So, you can start investing today, wherever you are even hanging with your dog. Ooh, like her. Shes probably investing right now. Taking charge of her money, making it happen. Shes not going to be happy about that pillow. Its time to do money, so what are you waiting for. Download now and get your first stock on us. Robinhood. Is that pgim, we see alpha emerging in the trendsete . Driving specific sectors of outperformance. Where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry. A leap into the digital era draws youthful populations to mobile banking and ecommerce. Trade and travel surge between emerging markets. Every day, our 1,100 investment professionals around the world search out opportunities for alpha. Partner with pgim, the Global Investment management businesses of prudential. The jobs report is out today. It is not the only important piece of data well be getting manufacturing data hits at 10 00 a. M. Eastern time today showing contraction for the third month in a row the gm strike is expected to weigh in on that number. We wonder what well think of these numbers when they come out if people try to discount them and say it doesnt matter. Investors say goodbye to october and now the rate cut by the fed. The jobs report is due out in less than two hours from now joining us this morning our guest and our guest host this morning. Scott, since you are new to the table, well start with you. What do you expect from the jobs number, what is the market expecting . Do we get concerned or does it get written off . Youve lined it up perfectly. Through that data, well look at manufacturing. We expect to lose 50,000 jobs in manufacturing and people will pay attention. If we lose fewer manufacturing jobs, that means the gm strike will have less of an impact. I think people will discount it because of the strike. As you pointed out, well start looking at ism data and look at the pmi data which is better than expected. Well look at the china data and say, you know what, maybe things are not as bad as we feared. When i think back in april back to the third year of the president ial cycle last year, he had 6 down. I dont think there was much credence given to the fact that a third year of a president ial cycle is a strong one. So these people are going to get big gains . The question becomes do we have a chase for performance sentiment has been depressed in defensive. You look at all the asset classes. Total return s p is up 20 Investment Grade up 12 . I could go through all of the assets, everything is higher and that comes in an environment where eps is flat. You think the chase to go higher continues it has to. It has to because there are other people who think the emperor is wearing no clothes. Who is the emperor . What is the difference in 2019 versus 2018 . The difference is you have a friendly fed versus a hostile fed. Weve been treading water if we go back a year, you see the huge dip at christmas eve. We have a huge dip up. Important level is Interest Rates. Snow, you may be right about the president being in his third year but hes had very little to do with that. Thats the reason the stock market is higher in a situation like that with the 10year yield dropping by 40 . About 150 basis points and earnings being pretty good not great but good of course, the stock market will do better. I dont think that would do great for us to do well. The fact is likely that the president has caused more problems for this market with the tariff battle than anything else the conversation is not about the president. The conversation is about the market and liquidity i think we are saying the same thing. Its about the liquidity in 2018, the average 10year yield was 2. 91 the average for 2019 is 2. 19 Profit Margins are actually going to be lower for s p 500 companies. Joe, i would add to that. If you are looking at next year, then you are in the fourth year of president ial cycle with a president who wants to be reelected and wants to make sure hes a little more caution about doing things having an effect on the economy like trade war and things going back historically, in an election year, the first three to six months are challenging. I would expect that for assets to run into the natural head wins of uncertainty sur

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