Operation twist, where we just had a liquidity dynamics last time i was on we talked about Earnings Growth bottoming and reaccelerating of course the rate of change is what boosts the multiple so were this one of those periods where it should extend not just through end of the year, but into the beginning of next year as well. So if you think about when those rallies stalled out after qe2, that was the point where everyone realized all that liquidity didnt really boost earnings all that much and by then stock prices were ahead of fundamentals but between now and then, i think that the path of least resistance is still higher lets take a quick look at treasury yields. The fed operations is a large part of why. The ten year is yielding 1. 73 and meanwhile Chinese State media, remember on sunday the pro democracy candidate scoring a landslide victory winning almost 90 of the district down can still seats. And now beijing is calling the election a setback for hong kongs Democratic Development and says the results were skewed by the illegal activities of the opposition camp. An interesting note, the com uhe ni communist party paper saying that the election concluded but did not mention the results. And this is as new data coming in out of china, profits at industrial firms shrinking down nearly 10 officials are partly blaming the ongoing u. S. china trade war so you called it and that has been the story ive been deriving this same data basically out of the shanghai composite and youve seen Earnings Growth go from 13 before the trade war started in the middle of 18 to negative in china. China and so margins are getting crushed. And when you talk about who is absorbing the tariffs, it is pretty clear when you look at profits and revenues and margins in china state owned enterprises, they really are absorbing these tariffs. And so they need a detente to try to take the pressure off the export sector. In addition to that, any investment that they have had in the last year or so has gone to the state owned enterprises. They have been trying to stimulate the private sector having no success with it in part because the bank beiing sym is a mess. And those issues existed before the trade war absolutely. They were trying to reform and deemphasize the role of the state run enter prices but once the export sector came under pressure, they had no choice and now the soe Profit Margins are getting crushed. So they really do need things to settle down. And President Trump telling reporters at the white house yesterday that the u. S. And china are in what he called the final throes of a very important deal later in an interview with bill oreilly, he spoke about what is holding up an agreement being reached. Me. Im holding it up. Really . Yeah, because it has to be a good deal. We cant make a deal that is like even. We have to make a deal i told that to president xi were so far down that we cant just make an even deal we have to do a deal where we do much better. President xi saying that it has to be an even deal so this seems to be the Sticking Point at least from a point of pride or from saving face from looking like you are not caving to a deal that puts you at a disadvantage and it is all about face and positioning and the political as pebt aspects. But china had a 10 current account surplus in 2008 and it is down to zero now. They cant feed themselves we have 70 more airable land and four times as many people. They cant heat themselves they will need to buy those products and they are running deficits with most of the rest of the world thousand except no. So are we both equally desperate for the deal they need a deal. For us, all we need is detente so do you think that the december 15th deadline is a real one, will the tariffs go on or will we find a reason not to increase the tariffs i think that well find a reason not to increase the trifls and when you think about the effect of the tariffs thus far, there is a stock and a flow. The stock is accumulation of tariffs. If you look at the industrial sector, margins went down and now right back up. So the industrial sector adjusted to the existing tariffs much like is the big increase in the trade weighted dollar. They get a shock, they had just. It is the new tariffs that work through Business Confidence that is the big issue so you think our markets would be okay with detente would chinas . No. Theyre in a spot actually, i should temper it that statement a little bit they definitely need to continue to restructure their economy. Ita little bit they definitely need to continue to restructure their economy right now they are under considerable amount of pressure. But china will be under that pressure anyway. This is why when people ask me about what do you do with all this, i have not been tempted by the buy china for a trade deal idea at all. Im structurally short china and would stay short china and structurally long the u. S. Would they be okay they would be okay but i still wouldnt buy chinese equities all right is that question of just directionally where their economy is going or because you think the relationship with the u. S. And china will continue to deteriorate even after this deal no, it is structural. I dont think that we needed the trade war for china to continue to head south. That is a piece ive been running for some time. They have 1. 4 billion people in a socialist system that has failed everywhere and somehow we think that it will work in china . No it is failing. Lets pivot to elon musk because he has been tweeting a running tally of preorders for its cyber truck at tesla take a look at this new number, he says 250,000 people have now deposited 100 each. That is the price tag of a deposit for one of these vehicles they have to express their interest in buying the truck although the deposit we should note is fully refundable is that if they cant fill the order or you just change your mind . I think that you can get out of it. Im not sure it is still more than showing up and putting your name on a restaurant list and then walking out the door 250,000 is not nothing, but it is also not like the other vehicles where you actually put down multiple thousands of dollars would you buy that truck . I was cured of buying expensive vehicles by 30 years of commuting to new york city. I drive jeeps. That is pretty much it phil says it is 100 refund bl if refundable if you decide you dont want it. I think that were moving towards evs no doubt if you think about the biggest problem with the Energy System in this country is that as much as weve had the shale revolution, the Transportation System is still reliant on combustion engines and oil and this is a step toward creating pickups that are evs is inevitable, the question is does gm and ford do it or is it tesla. Jim cramers wife loves teslas i guess now. Hes on board the Cramer Family has turned around at least temporarily. When we return, it is one of the busiest travel days of the year and it could get bad thanks to some storms. Phil lebeau is at ohare in chicago. Phil how bad is it . Looks nice there im thinking of home alone right now with that because i see exactly where you are. Reporter nice to be here when there are light crowds. But around the country, it has the potential to be a messy wednesday travel day for the day before thanksgiving. How messy and how much might it slow down the airlines well talk about that when squawk box is returns. Driverless cars, or trips to mars. No commission. Delivery drones, or the latest phones. No commission. No matter what you trade, at fidelity youll pay no commission for online u. S. Equity trades. At fidelity youll pay no commission johnsbut were also a cancer fighting, hiv controlling, joint replacing, and depression relieving company. From the day youre born we never stop taking care of you. I spent two years alone and homeless. Announcer as americas veterans face challenges, dav is there. Man 1 my victory was finding the support to get back on my feet. Announcer dav helps veterans of every generation get the benefits theyve earned. Man 2 im a veteran. When i got out, i felt like nowhere was safe. Announcer so veterans can reach victories great and small. Man 2 my victory was finding the help i needed. Announcer support more victories for veterans. Go to dav. Org welcome back phil lebeau is tracking all of the travelers today at Ohare Airport on a day that will be plagued unfortunately by weather delays and cancellations but first the faa is speaking out again on the grounded 737 max. Want to get phils thoughts on that and what will happen on the travel front and then we should talk about the macys day parade and balloons because the weather could affect that as well. Phil, lets talk 737s first. Sure. This is the third time in the last two weeks that the faa has put out a very public message that it is not ready yet to certify the 737 max. Yesterday the faa issued a statement essentially saying look, the max is not ready yet for certification, there has been the suggestion that boeing put out there that it believes it could be seeing certification in the december time frame but if you read this statement yesterday and read between the lines, it is clear that given the number of murder bells that still need to be cleared by the 737 max and the certification process, it may not happen by the end of the year as you take a look at shares of boeing im not sure how much that news might bring shares down. Because when you talk with people in the industry, when you talk to airline executives, very few people expect the certification to happen this year doesnt mean it wont happen, could happen shortly after the new year, but that is the latest with regard to the 737 max now lets talk about thanksgiving travel. 55 Million People overall are expected to travel at least 50 miles according to aaa for the thanksgiving holiday period. And in terms of those who are flying over this 10 to 12 day period surrounding thanksgiving, it is an increase of more than 3 compared to last year so what are the problems out there . Biggest problem happens to be with the weather the airfares are not an issue. They are close to where they have been in terms of historic lows they continue to trend far lower than they were just a few years ago. We mentioned the max the grounding of the max does have an impact you with looking at least 70 max planes that were scheduled to be in service by the airlines this year, probably closer to 110 that they thought they would have they dont have them we are talking about southwest, united and american. As a result there is less capacity good news is that the tighter capacity along with a little bit better pricing on the fairs means that the Profit Margins for the airlines have improved in the second half of this year. But guys, this weather, it does have the potential to make it particularly messy especially in the upper midwest as well as we look at the storms rolling to the northeast. So far were not he seeing a huge number of cancellations or delays and if it is tighter capacity, what does that mean for a traveler trying to get on a new flight could you get stuck for days theoretically . I dont know if youll be stuck for days, but it will be tougher. It is tougher for the airlines to rebook passengers simply because there are just not as many seats out there they do put in a bit of a buffer there when they are setting these schedules. But if you have really bad storms, mass cancellations, which nobody is forecasting at this point, then you have the potential for some people to be stuck in some areas where they dont want to be stuck for longer than they expected. Phil, thank you for that. At some point we do want to talk about these balloons the macys parade, yeah i dont think it is going to happen a few years ago when the wind was even lower than expected this time around is when you had a very serious accident. Knocked into a lamp post and knocked into a womanle terrible situation. If it is anything like what is anticipated, they wont have the balloons up for the parade sorkin family will be very unhappy, as will many families and expected 55 million americans will be hitting the road, an almost 3 increase from last year. And joining us now, the aaa spokesman. And it will be very bad in some of the major cities we will see a tripling of travel times. So if your trip normally takes an hour, it will take three hours. Why a lot of people driving, americans get the fewest number of Vacation Days of any workers in the industrialized world. We get a little time off, we take advantage of it we have disposable income. And we like to take a trip, so throw in thanksgiving, people like to drive to their destination, gives them the independent ebs ce of leaving wn they want. I dont know if you consider them a competitor. Do you think waze and google maps have made it better or worse . I remember the old days when my dad would go to aaa to get the trip tick and you would write it out and we would read to him as he was driving anyone who has used those apps can tell you a story but how they were misled by them so i always say dont turn your brain off, carry a man as well but those apps are good for when you are trying to maneuver around local streets but for point to point, get a man. We still make lots of maps they were going to cost me two minutes this morning to go around a toll on the garden state parkway. And we have this conversation in the car all the time. When youre in traffic but you cant really understand why there is traffic and then all of a sudden the traffic lets up what is it, what is the psychology of it sometimes there is no accident, there is no anything, it is just somebody spilled coffee it slows to a nothing and then it is physics i think it is basic rules of the road that people dont know. The left lane is supposed to be the faster lane and you got somebody doing 50 Miles Per Hour there and everybody else wants to do 60 or 70 how do you feel is about doing 60 or 70 in the left but never getting out of the left . If somebody is behind you and wants to get by, you should move is. Lets say youre really hustling youre moving. If somebody wants to outhustle you, get out of the way. Ill stay in the left if im really moving. Im going fast enough, i dont need to move if im going 75 Miles Per Hour and were really moving, im going over limit to begin with and somebody wants to make themselves into Police Officers. Look, we dont recommend speeding speeding is a major cause of crash. Leads to serious injuries. But if somebody wants to go faster, get out of the way. How flashing your lights at somebody during the day that is a good way to get shot people flash their lights to say get out of the way because youre driving in the fast lane. Hes telling you to get out of the way. Get out of the way. All right is it true i was told this. If youre going at 75 Miles Per Hour and youre over the limit, and you get pulled over, but the whole traffic is actually moving at that speed, i was told that what you are supposed to tell the officer is that you were actually driving at the speed of traffic and that actually you would have gotten this to an accident otherwise and you were being pushed to do that. They do teach that you have to keep up with the traffic. If everybody is doing 70 and youre doing 40, it is like somebody doing 50 during the indianapolis 500 but if a Police Officer pulled you over, it is not a good excuse yeah, everybody else is doing it final question. What do you make of using radar do people even use radar or waze that i had gidente the cops are the apps are good for some what about where the cops are . We have not taken an official position on that if you lapse and you forget what you are doing, it is very easy to exceed the speed limit. So they are helpful in that regard waze also tells you when you are going over the speed limit yes, it does. I think it slows you down because you see the cops my son was watching and said mom, youre going too fast stay safe this weekend, please this may be my favorite segment of the whole year. I feel like i learned so much. Mine too because he told you you were wrong on every account. Good to see you, robert when we come back, here is a problem that we dont talk about much drug prices being too low. Believe it or not, it is a serious problem that is causing some shortages and patients are paying the rice we have that story right after the break. I get the feeling this is one that well all have to hear to believe meg turrell will tell us all about it so servicenow put your workflows in the cloud, huh . Mmhm. Your employees must love you. Thank you. Ah, you could say that. So how are things with you guys . Great. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Lunch next week . Terrific. Say hi to the team. Will do. Call my office, i will. Sounds good. Alrighty. Servicenow. Works for you. Doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacistrecommendeding . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. vo thewith every attempt, strto free itself,piders web. It only becomes more entangled. Unaware that an exhilarating escape is just within reach. Defy the laws of human nature. At the season of audi sales event. Welcome back it is time for the executive edge ceo of soul cycle has resigned effective immediately. She has also vacated her position on the board. A source telling cnbc that both sides felt it was time for a leadership transition. Soul cycle attempted to go public under her tenure but withdrew due to Market Conditions and remember back in august, soul cycle faced that boycott after steven ross hosted a fundraiser for President Trumps reelection. I think soul cycle has maybe closed a couple locations as well meantime of course peloton has gone public since then soul cycle also planning to announce a sort of similar product or sort of Video Service that you could use at home i dont know what is going on over there i want to dig into that. And the drug industry has been under siege for prices that are too high, but low prices for is some drugs is leading to shortages. Here is meg tirrells special report reporter to karen, her diagnosis of Bladder Cancer came as a shock i had barely come to terms with that. Reporter and then after her initial treatment, she was dealt another blow the best drug to treat her disease wasnt available to her. That kind of took away the last little bit of strength i had for a little while reporter the drug is bcg,