Before but investors remain bullish. We are on record close watch for the three major averages, as we stand, the nasdaq and s p pretty comfortable. The dow just higher, though, by only 0. 1 . Industrials the only sector in the red. Consumer discretion. Joining us, josh brown from Wealth Management. Well done. What did i say . Im not sure. It was cute. I got close enough. Lets stay on track nasdaq, dow, s p. With almost nothing in the red at all. Its bigger than that 52week highs for the slf. Bank sector. Very, very key incredibly bullish Consumer Sector spydr. Look at the usual suspects, xlk. Off the radar things that are happening thats really interesting. This might be because enough tax law selling has already occurred or traders are anticipating the end of that. Some of those highprofile ipos that blew up this summer and fall are starting to make meaningful moves off their lows, looking like they could be putting in a sustainable bottom. Peloton, after a very disappointing debut. Slack looks good its a name ive owned its looked terrible for a long time nice move off that low buyers are coming in here. 20 is a tradeable bottom moving forward. Uber made a nice move. Thats an interesting tail wind that started to develop. Some of the hardest hit, biggest damaged laden names are looking better and better. Theres a lot to like. If youve been watching me every week on shoet for weeks and weeks, months and months, the technicals are keeping along this market. Today is another case in point. Lot of names for investors to chew on. An entire hour with josh well get all over todays big Economic News as well. Diana olick, Steve Liesman is looking at divergence of the u. S. And chinese economies new reporting on concerns from Corporate Executives and joining us to break it all down, from Morgan Stanley investment lets start with diana and the beige book. Modern economic expansion, tight labor market and, of course, trade impacts. Manufacturing was improved overall. Mentoring trade policy as a Downside Risk to their outlook worker shortage spans most industries and skill levels. One provider of Business Security in seattle said their labor costs were the highest in the companys history. In chicago, several Companies Reported hiring retired workers to fill their gaps prices rose modestly overall much higher costs due to tariffs. Sales expectations for the Holiday Season in the boston district, very strong. One retailer reported import duties on some european luxury goods were way up. Back to you. Diana, thank you very much for that meantime, there were some positive signals on the data front today in the u. S. , but different case in china of late. Steve liesman has been looking into that for us. Most of the data today in the u. S. , a bit better than expected, compared with some pretty bad chinese Economic Data take a look here for example, we had the gdp come in two ticks better, durable goods. Looking for a 1 decline, up 0. 6, 50year low thats been around for a bit industrial profits in china, down nearly 10 . Six straight month of decline, exports falling for 17 straight months taking its hits from the trade war. Pmi versus pmi, the u. S. Has fallen sharply from robust days of 60s, somewhere in the middle of 2018 and now both countries pmis are in negative territory. Rather than look at the winner of the trade war, maybe its whos losing more . One other way to look at it, u. S. Exports to china and chinese imports to the u. S. , there you go, down 15. 5 imports from china down 13. 5 . Were doing a little worse there. Not in terms of dollars. Take a look at the other side of this, the dollar terms 53 billion yeartodate off on chinese imports to the u. S. , just 15 billion. We export less to china. Losses on both sides might have been brought up a little closer. Well see if the losses are big enough, though, to forge a deal. Wilf morgan steve, question for you we know there was a slowdown starting to happen, at least in some parts of the economy in china even before all the trade stuff happened how does the data now compare to them i think it accelerated to the downside then it affected pockets in the u. S. The difference in the u. S. , morgan, as you know, we have this very dynamic economy. Some people importing, some people exporting, companies that benefit from a strong dollar and some from a weak dollar. Its the dynamism of the economy that tides us over so there are some downsides to the economy, just not as dramatic as they are in china. Under the radar but possibly Interesting Data about the fact that that china was able to pull off its largest ever International Bond sale this week they were expecting 3 billion they did 6 billion. They had 20 billion worth of demand for dollar denominated bonds in china i think it dovetails with people looking at the stock market for a proxy of whether or not the world is really worried about this trade war wearing on. Are those related . Should i call you brown, you call me liesman . No, no, im mr. Brown. Mr. Brown, okay chinas business to the u. S. Is right now. U. S. Business to china is essentially on the come. Nothing has eliminated the chinese burgeoning middle class. Theyll still come to market wall street is still going to fund them. Theres pretty good optimism about down the road where nothing about it has revealed those facts. Brown. Steve, thank you very much. On that point, quickly, josh, only at 65 basis points above treasuries when we know rates are pretty low by historic standards. Riskfree bond to your point. Chinese will be look at this and saying if we can slowly but surely take advantage of the current circumstances and offset our current use of reserves, i think its a huge factor for them long term playing it small relative to their overall deficits. Very good point if youre just reading headlines, all the furor, all the uncertainty. Next week china is going to have four times the amount of subscription for a bond offering, the biggest theyve ever done, and it will be 40, 50 basis points over a treasury, you would say absolutely not yet that shows how much more important price and reality are than saber rattling by politicians. It changes one factor with china weve had and that is whether or not they can keep the currency propped up and fixed where it is. This helps them do that. No question. Despite those positive data points at home and stocks at record highs here, some executives are raising red flags about next years outlook. What is jp morgan saying about the sentiment coming from ceos right now . I sat down with john richard. In contrast to the euphoria, the bullishness were talking about at cnbc, ceos have a lot of pessimism for last year. With the election coming up, they think with the expansion in the late innings, they think with potential democratic candidate who might want structural texts and regulatory changes to the u. S. That they are actually pessimistic about growth in 2020. What about the sort of underlying differences, hugh, different sectors, industrial versus consumer. Its a tail of two industries worlds really. Anything to do with services and tech, these are things, anything to do where its driven by the consumer these are corporations and sectors that are still doing well if you talk to ceos of old economy manufacturing, transportation, Business Services in some cases, these are people who might tell you they are currently in a recession. Hugh, thank you very much for joining us hugh son catch the full story be sure to check that out. Were in the first innings of a capitulation trade Morgan StanleyInvestment Management andrew, thank you so much for joining us youve been looking at recent decades type performance and you think this looks more like 2012 and 2016 at the moment 2019 does but what happens in 2020, i think, will mimic what happened in 2013 and 2017, which were that simply 2012 and 2016 came after very tough years we had economic scares the market rallies because there was no recession in those years, but investors actually liquidated out of equities, 2012, 2016 because they remembered the pain of the big drawdowns of 11, 15. Thats exactly what happened this year. We had a big drawdown last year. Market is up a lot but investors liquidated look back to 2013, 2017, what happened was the money that was liquidated the first year coming out of that tough year reversed, investors came back into the market so inflows flows turned positive at the end of 2012. At the end of 2016, we had very positive inflows in 2013 and 2017 and you had very good another good year for equities in those two years weve had outflows net from equity, etfs every month this year and were just starting to see those flows turn positive. I think you cannot say anyone that says to me, look, i think this run is almost over, youre telling me that after 10 months of outflows were going to have a month and a half of inflows . I think thats crazy. Yeah. Josh, do you agree does this bull market have more . Im curious the chief strategist at your firm has been talking about a recession pretty much on a weekly basis all year. Do you think that some of those outflows are being driven by commentary like that and then when the recession does not materialize and things continue on an even keel and were still at essentially gdp 2 growth quarter after quarter, maybe not each quarter but on average, people say i dont believe the recession call im going to invest for the long term and ignore that stuff is some element to the data turning upward ive been on cnbc, you know, since this summer, saying were having a recession scare its going to be a repeat of 2011, 2015 value stocks get very cheap. And then theres no recession and value comes back as evidenced today. You told me financials are at an alltime high. They continue to move higher. 52week high. Then that will return the investor behavior more positive. And that is what has not happened yet its just starting, and people will come back in the market the other thing that is very relevant is if you looked at the positioning this summer, the defensive sectors were extraordinarily expensive relative to the market and that just tells you, people are positioned for the market to go down, not up. And in the past when theyve gotten this expensive, the market actually always goes has always gone up and that the defensive positioning has to be unwound. It goes in value stocks, gross stocks, comes out of utilities, reads, consumer staples. I think thats exactly what were seeing again so the key thing is, the macro conditions change, but investor behaviors do not change. And i think this next year coming up will be a repeat of 2013 and 17. Yeah. Andrew, thank you so much for joining us good to see you. Thank you happy thanksgiving. And to you. Very happy thanksgiving. After the break on closing bell, investors have a lot to be thankful for and mike santoli will head to the telestrator for the key factors that led to the rally. Nasdaq and 2019 ipo race a new proposal could open the door for more direct listings at the big board. Well discuswi vs thice chairman john tuttle. Stay with us so servicenow put your workflows in the cloud, huh . Mmhm. Your employees must love you. Thank you. Ah, you could say that. So how are things with you guys . Great. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Lunch next week . Terrific. Say hi to the team. Will do. Call my office, i will. Sounds good. Alrighty. Servicenow. Works for you. 43 minutes left to go. Shares of box jumping as well, after reporting better than expected revenue, raising its fouryear forecast, as you can see that stock almost up 10 Dell Technologies falling after posting an earnings beat and revenue miss, also cutting its fullyear revenue forecast, citing shortage of chips from supplier intel. Lets get over to mike for todays market dashboard. Hi, wilf. Good to talk to you i want to allow people to take in the dashboard here idea autumnal shade of orange. Graphics folks did a great job on this. Ill go through what were going to run through loosening the belt, kind of a sign of how the bond market has helped the market get to where we are right now generational frictions, different classes of tech stocks, very different experiences, wellbalanced menu, Asset Allocation has worked very well this year kind of quantify that. Homes for the holidays little bit about housing loosening the belt up 26 year to date on the s p 500. Up 17. 5 , Fourth Quarter decline last year. How did we get here . To what do we owe this bounty . Multiple expansion 14 times forward multiple on the s p a year ago, you said were going to add almost 4 points to that, i dont think a lot of people were really in that camp and would be able to ride out a flat earnings year look what happened to the tenyear treasury yield, going exactly the other way. The fed is out of the way of the markets. We have a very benign information where very low yields but not really looking at a recession right away is really buoying pe multiples here is the trick, is it foretelling were getting a return to Earnings Growth next year thats the prem iises to allow this to go up and this down. Thats a prime example of exactly how we got here in a flat earnings year, guys. I should stop by saying its good to talk to you all well. I havent seen you all day. I know, just from afar. The interesting thing on this chart, if you did this with europe over the same period, you would see a similar move in rates lower but would actually see e multiples track lower as well, which is kind of a fascinating different example where qe hasnt really worked and you could argue thats because the bond market isnt as well developed it has worked essentially here is what that argument is showing. Right these low yields have created tr tremendous corporate accreditation. Bank stocks have started to perform over here but the financials and oil stocks, its not necessarily apples to apples this is pretty much a growth index right here, one reason its been able to support these evaluations. I get it, mike. You put the whole situation in orange you give us these easy to understand themes here clearly, were talking about thanksgiving. Youre welcome. Yeah. I appreciate it. You should be thankful. He has had some obscure ones lately its been a little tricky. In that chart that mike is showing, like youre seeing bonds and stocks work this year together Goldman Sachs pointed out yesterday this is the best year for 60 stock, 40 Income Portfolio since 1998 in 21 years, you havent done this well in a diversified portfolio. Be thankful. Josh gave you a preview of our third dashboard. My bad. Unless youve held stocks like slack. That shouldnt be 60. No. That should be this big within the 60. All right. Mike, thank you very much well see you later. After the break, shares of underarmor are down in the last six months but one investor says its an underrated underdog. Why, next. And apple doubles down on hos. Wireless headpne if youre hoping to get them by christmas, you may be out of luck those details coming up in the market zone. Danafarber Cancer Institute discovered the pdl1 pathway. Pdl1. They changed how the world fights cancer. Blocking the pdl1 protein, lets the immune system attack, attack, attack cancer. Pdl1 transformed, revolutionized, immunotherapy. Pdl1 saved my life. Saved my life. Saved my life. What we do here at danafaber, changes lives everywhere. Everywhere. Everywhere. Everywhere. Everywhere. Im a regular in my neighborhood. Im a regular at my local coffee shop and my local barber shop. When you shop small you help support your community from after School Programs to the arts so become a regular, more regularly. Because for every dollar you spend at a Small Business, an average of 67 cents stays in the community. Join me and American Express on Small Business saturday, november 30th, and see how shopping small adds up. Dick sportings goods posting several strong delivering a premium Brand Experience for its partners, mainly up 50 for the year and double digit growth for online sales next, Raymond James believes in one of dicks partner brands calling underarmor underrated. Trading at a discount relative to. Netflix is facing rising competition from the likes of disney and apple Jp Morgan Says this will be good for the company, accelerating the shift away from tv Nicole Sperling from the new york times. Bernie, is that the way they should be framing this, shift away from linear tv versus these streaming services right now theres about 100 billion spent annually on the paid tv ecosystem versus 15 billion for the marketplace. Net fliks is the lions share of th that it will benefit all players. A buy rating on disney because of that, going from zero to 10 million. Did you welcome when a company like netflix spends more on a movie versus more on tv episodes which kind of attracts subscribers better marking a change in strategy for netflix historically budgets for movies has been much smaller. The oscar nominee last year had a 15, 20 billion irishman is 160 million, underground 6, massive budget. And next year a 200 million budget massive budgets that the company is spending. Historically, movies have been a major driver of subscribers. 23 million households watched murder mystery. That was also in q2 when subscriber decline. Whats on the line with the release of irishman . Theyve been applying a lot of money and marketing into this films release, whether you think about them taking over little italy here in new york city and throwing it back to throwback to the 1970s or Movie Theater releases in two very iconic wellknown theaters, with one on each of the coasts. Yes the irishman is a big deal for netflix this fall, both from a subscriber acquisition standpoi standpoint they had roma and spent tremendously marketing that film they did well at the oscars. They were nominated in best picture for the first time, and had a good run alfonso corone won for best director best picture prize is what their eye is on. They want to prove theyre a home for filmmakers and thats why theyre sxabd exp