Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240713 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240713

For only 15 minutes. Since then stocks have moved sharply lower. The g7 proposed policies, but the tenyear breaking below 1 for the first time ever. Darius adamczyk will join us in a bit. We have Rick Santelli here, Steve Liesman is covering the emergency fed cut. And meg tirrell has the latest on the coronavirus outbreak. Ill be watching the fallout for the banks. Pete is joining us yesterday, today two very different days have you chanced what youve been doing have not. This is a classic buy the rumor sell the news type of trade. It was tell graphed friday and over the weekend were trading higher eventually. You still think we go long you do think the panic is overblown. I am in the life sciences. I know some of the things going on that are not well publicized, but theyre out there. Its moore pernicious, and now its on our shores, and thats the big concern. It is a virus that i do believe that at the end of this quarter, a few months, well be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and the markets will trade back higher. Over to bob pisani. A flight to saved, we talked about whats going on here, but golds big rally moving up two, three, four, 5 . A positive reaction, a little less enthusiastic than it was earlier in the day all of them are to the up side here what else can be done . A lot of people are talking about maybe infrastructure spending, some kind of fiscal stimulus you see modest moves up here all on the up side finally banks a miserable day here, concerns about lower loan activity as well guys, back to you. Thanks so much for that then we found in the last 20 minutes a bit of a recovery. First of all definitely sticker shock, and this general sense that perhaps this is what the market was looking for from the fed, but the timing perhaps clumsy did we already price in the probable economic slowdown however, also yesterdays rally was a springloaded we were sitting here 24 hours ago ago, yeah, its great, but you cant extrapolate that its a bottom this is how it trades, you retest, chop around. I will say s p sold off below 3,000. That dip was immediately bought. We have spent most of today within yesterdays way in a strange way this has not been an extraordinary day. A bit of a comeback. Yields are up as well on a day that the fed made this extraordinary move to build confident in the market, did that make you think . The tenyear fell below 1 for the first time ever. High, wolf, yesterday look at an intraday of twoyear. Were now at 71, down 19 basis points thats, what, 11 off the lows . Its low trade was 0. 9, 90 basis points you could have traded it at 116 to where it settled. Briefly under 97, 96, 97, consider this eight sessions ago, we were this close to 100 its been swift. I guess money has poured into treasuries today, but relative move in yield has been very pronounced. Yes, but are yields relative to everybody else . Its also pronounced and i think the appetite for dollars will be steady, verysteady in the future i know the president and the administration, like a weaker dallas, but i think over time the dollar will be higher after this move is over. I think the default to the dollar index will crawl back once we get past this volatility. The fed mayes an emergency rate cut for the first time. Fed chair jay powell laying out the reasoning behind that move earlier. We do recognize that a race thats why ear seeing is, lets bring in i thought that was the money line, steve. Just in the last 20 minutes making some contacts it can also ease finish conditions the emergency rate is about a total surprise really tell graphs the cut that they at 10 00, remains strong in the face of these new riskses. They mentioned the communication of and fiscal authorities it seems strange that they didnt do any of after which was alluded to steve, why 10 00 a. M. Anything to read into that plenty of time to get the decision out, wasnt it . I think the response is somewhat of a surprise, but i will say hold on tight, wilf i have seen fed action not really priced into the market. Well see if it helps to put a bottom or maybe theres more to on to go i think the criticism would otherwise be louder. What about that its using the ammunition to get ahead of it where we need more policy blitz, and can the fed get out of this and reverse this if it needs to if the virus proves to be temporary. Theres no definitive aens to that those are worth while points all we know is theres been a lot of research and the modeling has been done when you have very few rate cuts to use, that youre close to the zero lower bound, its better to use them earlier. In fact, you go back and say could the fed have done more yes, and done more earlier and maybe not had as bad of an outcome. So maybe thats motivating them. Step up, and i think its not crazy to think that more may be to come. I have to push back on you suggesting the cries would have been louder if they hadnt done anything acting out of the cycle of typical meetings and to the tune of 50 basis points was pretty wild, particularly following a day where markets had already recovered. I think some people do argue i dont know how much of a portion, but that they have lost credibility. , and this is something that they were sort of backing themselves into, acting this time as opposed to necessarily be the right move. Except that you have to take into account the following actions friday at 2 30 the Federal Reserve chairman really put a floor on the market at 2 30 when he said the fell would use all available 2s yesterday Imf World Bank with a joint statement, bank of japan, lagarde, and we learned the g7 was going to have this meeting, to do what it could to put a floor on the free fall. Steve, thank you very much for the insight. Lets get to mike for todays market dashboard in parts its processing yesterdays pretty historic pop. To do that, po you it in longerterm cox, this is from the third quarter, 2016, i keep pointing to the january of 2018 pullback you saw a very, very quick rebound, just like we saw yesterday after a doubledigit loss over two weeks. Then you chopped around. Every w start with a v, not every v turns into a w today we did give back some of it, but yesterdays lows, friday lows so far being respected would it be surprise figure we ended up in one of these boxes after going to a new high . Not really, but, you know, it doesnt necessarily tell graph itself, but its very common to have this extremely choppy agitation here is as look at the blend. And what happened in the days after you. This is your 4 move form the blue line is the average of all of these instance it is. What you see very frequently is chop chop chop, below the close of that 4 game. This is on average then its just a bit of context, and what you see is relatively common what does that say to you as stomach churning as mike was pointing out, you want it to rally hard, but it never does. So the market will churn or chop when you think about communicating with Old Technology to execute orders now its rapid fires the humans have a hard time keeping up let the news psyched go through its way. We did see much, much overwhelming just for a bit of a background the market continued to dig much lower. We have the we did hit that bottom on march 9th, 2009. Clearly a lot of deja vu, what was your reaction the it was ahead of the curve to do that, the fed really got moving then boom, the fed did something aggressive it didnt do a nambypamby cut it did an interim cut. What its saying to the market, and to households its going to try to get ahead of this thats really critical, so this is a positive development. So thats a real problem that does what who saw during the crisis is Central Banks did things in a coordinated fashion, the market took note with positive outcomes. To what extent had the fed made a decisionby backing themselve into a corn er and showing signs of stepping in when the market shows signs of needing it. I think they mae it look like they were reacting to the market or i think it was a problem and they were reacting to something that we didnt have in information about what was going to happen. So for me that was somewhat problem mattics. This sang that this could be really serious, that people are getting very nervous, people are cutting back the travel plans. My wife said were not going on vacation on march 8th. So the fed understands that even before the data shows that theres a problem, this shock will affect the economy in a negative way in this case, i think the communication was spot on. With all that said, what does it do in practice . What really turns out is itssh thats really critical as well thats one thing we learned from the financial crisis, it doesnt work, it just sort of indicated that things were getting worse, not really doing their jobs. Its when you bring out the big baseball bat, get it out in front, and you dont wait to see a couple strikes hit you first, but actually hit the ball. I think the issue here is the market will do what its going to do. Realize just yesterday we had a huge increase in market prices in the stock market it could basically be a big hit tremendous uncertainty, people are holding back they dont want to spend they dont want to fly they could have closure of factories, so theres a lot of uncertainty right now. The real issue is not that the fed did this and the market didnt rise. If they hadnt provided the signal and hadnt done this, then we would see the market a hell of a lot low er. Does it go out of the window, because of g7 meeting, and is th that. You have a remake to keep inflation under control. As soon as you know theres a problem, youre supposed to act. The independence means that you actually have to decide how to do it. Thats what the fed is doing at this juncture. When they do the right thing, i think thats giving into political pressures doesnt u. S. Are just doesnt make sense to me thank you for joining us. Youre very welcome we will talk to gary stern about the rate cut, his take on the selloff and whether this move was the right dahl. Just under 40 minutes of trade stocks diving actually initially they popped, and then popped again and then they fell pretty hard weve got 29 out of the 30 dow stocks lower the only one thats higher is cocacola. The staples, utilities, real estate do better, and that makes sense, right . New cases reports in georgia, new hampshire, northern. In washington, a number of cases, at a nursing facilities in a and residence and workers have found symptoms. New yorks second case today is the first here of Community Transition there are continued questions, in Senate Testimony f. It was said that 3. 5 billion masks would be needed. Currently he said we only have 10 in the Strategic National stockpile. The spread around the world continues with case numbers now topping 92,000 and more than 3100 dead. Sara meg tirrell, thank you meteorology the hardest hit here theyve been absolutely slammed today. It comes off the back of a massive rally, particularly after yesterday afternoon. But banks much more than most. The kbw the sector on all measures is very cheap barclays announced this morning before the selloff showing that the banks are at 56 only jpmorgan of the big sentence is on doubledigit pricetoearnings ratios as we speak. They are tracking yields so closely. Theyre off their lows clearly the low pes look attractive, provided the e part holds up ten days ago they didnt need to have guidance, a big shift, though, if the fed rates come down on their capital, even weve seen this before inned form of higher. There an algorithm that the rates will move and profits will be impacted by x in his big note this morning, he said this is more of an art than a science, because its hard to tell bank of america has been hit, because its got a high exposure to the consumer within that. Much more price sensitiveto th rates moving. And whether theyre going to be a business more price sensitive in their buying. Some suggesting that massive run was down half a percent and closed up 4. 5 an enormous swing, we dont know that, but either way, theres a lot of potential buyers to come in. Are you a buyer the financials have always lagged the broader p. E the longterm average is 70 of the market. So were selling off. I think its more than just a rate story wilf, to your point on the buyback it should be noted that all Public Companies have certainly rules how much to buy back to your point, sara, there are some algos out there they do program those in and are the rates going to go down they a consumerfacing business. Theres going to be a massive mortgage refinancing boom, but thats not as great for the banks as new mortgages that for so long, whether Goldman Sachs can catch up Morgan Stanley has actually fallen to match t of course, those announced a fairly large acquisition just before the selloff. Michael, would you be buys the banks . Theyre not the cruise lines, but i think theyre names with this gigantic sort of earnings miss, hey of the recovery i think. Its not going to last forever. If you look at this in a reasonable sort of outlook, which of course is anybodys guess, but our perspective is a quarter or two in the end disney has good fundamentals i think youll see it bounce back in credit card spending i think what you really want to look at as, in my view, a really horrible, as i said, sort of global earnings miss what does that normally look like maybe a company with a good basic earnings, has a problem, bumps down on the stock price because of some bad news, but then comes back on the long term thats why i think maybe you can put some cash to work, drifting into some of these names impacted. And now all of a sudden of tenyear treasury, you have some profit there that you can actually take and move into names that have traded down. At t, for example, has a high dividend rate. In particular you can move out of allocated Bond Holdings that have actually rallied, take some of the profit. How much rallies are going to be ripping long term in a bond index when the tenyear treasury is under 1 . Thats where rebalancing makes a lot of sense michael yoshikami, thank you for calling in. Thank you. Well have our closing bell closer, honeywell ceo Darius Adamczyk. We have cut our losses almost in half, still looking at more than a 1300point swing high to low front and center, the Federal Reserve announcing a surprise Interest Rate cut designed to combat a shock from the coronavirus. The g7 pledging appropriate measures, but didnt spell out any specifics. The tenyear treasury yield breaking below 1 for the first time ever. Lets get to Bertha Coombs for whats been moving over there. Everything, for the most part moving total down side really very little place to high today. All the sectors are all moving lower. The biggest drag here is apple, that started the day off with that big positive following the fed decision, but just did not hold the within you bit of silver lines, were not sealing the selloff on as much volume a lot of that trend state athome trade, ebay, the chinese gaming stock today as well leaders here in the nasdaq 100 back over to you bertha, thank you very much. We have under 30 minutes left to trade. Not just botched yields themselves heres one way of visualizing it its the s p 500 compared to the tlt, so this is again a ratio type of relationship when this is going up as it was 2017 and 2018, stocks vastly outperforming bonds. What is interesting here is the level we have gotten to is looking like its about as stretched to the down side as weve been on a shortterm basis in the last 2, 2 1 2 years its in danger of kind of going back to the postelection pop. The market said reflationary policies, that means buy stocks, sell bonds that seems to have been challenged now if you look at a momentum chart, it is nearly off the charts in terms of how strong they have been no matter what the instrument is, no matter of news flow, it seems it will exhaust itself soon but where theres still a leg lower, it wasnt like we were pricing in recession at that point, were we we were pricing in a stall ped, the oil crash. But arent we questioning stall speed at the moment . What was really happening there is the stock market had a 15 correction, rangebound while bonds continued to rally at the time the tenyear made flu lows at the time of 0. 15 . It feels like now were thats right, but at the time cal low rates are good, again, youve heard me say it before. Capital goes where capital gets rewarded if youre confident about what the assets are at this point in time for me thats another key pillar underneath my those, that capital will go into the market. If we can bring out an intraday chart, were now down moments ago we were down 500, and now down almost 700 theres such volatility here. The volatility for the stuff we have gleaned is outsized. You typically dont see a vix rising at this level the intraday volatility, again, wilf is driven a low i dont envision a lot of long o selling into this market and trading intraday you have clients that are institutional had edge funds. Thats right. What are they do . Theyre nibbling, picking they recognize and a lot of them believe were vastly oversold, but theyre not going to trade in this market they have a long return thesis, and family structures, and theyre going to add to their positions. It will come back, well get clear of this over the next two quarters thats why i think its a lot of the intraday maneuvering that is going on with how the markets are structured. We have 24 minutes after the a quick look at the sector heat map for you. Real estate is only the sector in the green, near the top, of course, as sara said before, the defensive sectors, the bond yields have collapsed. Technology the worst performer followed closely by financials two highs on the 52week high list, netflix could trading at the highest level of clorox trading at alltime highs. How long is that going to last the federal everybody making an emergency 50base setpoint rate cut, citing the coronavirus is an evolving risk, a move we havent seen since the financial crisis joining us is the cofounder and kreismt off the cycle institute. A very good afternoon to you both is this the right call by the fed . Probably not. I mean basically from a cyclical point of view, the singly cal resilience of the economy was, i think unbeknownst to most people pretty good before the virus hit. We were seeing up turns in our leading indicators for growth, and. So its the right move not because its youre worried its not going to work, but because it wasnt needed im plenty worried its not going to work, but did the economy need this right here right now . Was there an existential threat to the economy well, i dont knows on the economy, the window of vulnerability, which is when a big shock was not open, okay . You were mentioning housing, for example. Construction cycle upturn in residential housing. Manufacturin

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