Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240713 : v

CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report July 13, 2024

Jim, is it short answer is yes but lets qualify it just because today is a day to buy doesnt mean we cant go lower from here. Look, when you say is it a time to buy, it doesnt mean you pile into the market today. It means over the coming days. There are still Big Questions to be answered. We know theres an Economic Impact and we know theres going to be a profit impact. The question is how long does it last thats one question. Which we just simply dont know the answer to. The second question is what policy response . Now on that second question lets say this theres a heck of a lot of room for improvement and thats a good thing so, yes, it is a time to buy but for Goodness Sake please pace it out over the coming days steve, cramer today i dont want people to buy, cash is king, says he has a huge amount of cash. We would not be buyers until we take out mondays low which on the s p 500 was 2734 market feels very broken to me what do you think . I think hes right. Last week okay it was time to buy. Oscillators dont work against covid19 my view has been and remains were going to go at least 30 lower from where we were at the top. Off a couple of Percentage Points here and there, yes its too early to buy. Sure things look attractive. You know, the way you judge return, the most important thing is your point of entry sure your sale, point of sale but point of entry this point of entry is not good. Youll get a better point of entry by then. One main thing i look in the past the ceo of the s p is essentially the mostly cloudy skies president trump. And right now i wouldnt own a company that had a ceo that exhibits that kind of behavior and taking no action do you agree with these statements, is it affecting the market the market doesnt think were testing enough correct the market doesnt believe were on top of this correct the market is confused by mixed messages i dont think its confused the market doesnt know whether well stave off a deep recession. Correct. The market will see it before it believes it thats correct in the face of all of that, how do you stabilize this downfall you cant first question, market doesnt think were testing enough market is assuming we test more the incidents will pick up dramatically there could be a Million People infected in the u. S. We tested 8,000. We have 1,000 case when you roll out a million tests. What will you have vix is above 50 put call ratio is beyond any measure ive ever seen it feels terrible but those are contra contra contrarion indicators. They are telling you its close to bad ive had this conversation with people about all of these indicators, okay, that in normal times would tell you youve got to buy stocks. Well, these are abnormal times for a variety of reasons you have some suggesting that now is the time to pick up some stocks in the market to buy the s p when its down this far others are saying absolutely not. Stay away and its going down further. You used to run a large portfolio. What do you do now so, i think that theres some points in which you make a decision that the market is pricing in a recession which we believe to be the case and if were pricing in a recession and were pretty close to a multiple of about 15 times some number that for 2021 is a little bit of a rebound from a recession year, then you can say at these levels we can buy these stocks so i understand the concern. Im sitting in a state, massachusetts is in the state of emergency. I dont think thats very bullish. On the other hand, i can look at prices and say okay maybe this stock down 30 or 35 has discounted a lot of bad news and if we dont buy a big position you buy a small position, you add incrementally, when you have extra cash and to me that makes some sense by the way, steve, if next week there was an announcement that theres a cocktail of retroviral drugs thats effective against the coronavirus i think that millions of people would feel a lot better yeah. And many investors would feel better maybe so but we wouldnt even have any sort of vaccine, cocktail or otherwise for a year to year and a half, according to experts. Not a vaccine, but drugs that are on the market that are used for other viruses, even hiv. You can gilead and others have drugs in their arsenal and its possible that there will be something that can be tried and effective. Nothing is right now the other thing, to steves point of view, its shared by david costin at Goldman Sachs who takes his midyear target on the s p down to 2450 thats 15 below current levels. He takes his earnings expectations down again for the second time in pretty much a week, nine days, whatever you want to call it. 16 so 28 to 30 downturn from the highs. You take that but then also say at the year end he thinks its 3,200 jim and i have a very similar time frame we kind of look out and say if i want to get stuff cheaper ill start nibbling now ill tell you im not fast enough, nimble enough, maybe pulling the trigger when it goes down 10 one day and bounces back the next. 17 and stocks down 30 im going to start buy some of these stocks that i think will work a year, two years down im not going into speculation or high debt leverage models looking at High Quality Companies i want to own, disneys of the world, lowes of the world. Even jpmorgan. Lets go there. I said at the top i want to spend a lot of time to talk about actual stocks. I want to find out what you guys are doing if youre doing anything im surprised to see and maybe to some extent that you and carrie are adding a lot of names. Yes a lot of names. I have clients set upping with cash. Which we have been we talked about it since selling over the last three months im starting to go back in stages say these are the High Quality Companies that i think i want to own and i wasnt able to in the last couple of years have full positions in these companies. Youre youre adding to disney im adding to lowes. Ceo just bought some more stock. Im adding zimmer. High Quality Company low valuation. Im adding jpmorgan at 97, 98. Morgan stanley a solid Wealth Management trading below book. Cvs trading at eight times earnings which is so cheap, you know it has leverage but definitely manageable leverage. Aluminuma, thats not going away the stock has come off quite a bit off its high these are companies i want to own in a period like this. Carrie, i see the same thing from you even more names. But i want to zero in on this. Carrie you added today or in the last couple of days, lets say, can you give me more clarity on the time frame visa American Tower Sherwin Williams Facebook Paypal charter. Apple. Amazon booking. Schwab health equity. Alphabet and alibaba thats quite a list. You can pick all or some and tell me exactly why you decided to add to these names in this environment. So if you take American Tower, as an example awful stock really but cell phones are not going away in fact people have to stay inside they will use their phones more and so many people dont have a land line, they are just using a cellular tower. Sherwin williams for people who are in a house, you know, maybe they are going to repaint. I think thats the sort of expenditure that people will make in a difficult environment. Charter communications, again, a stayathome play. Its u. S its home centric. Apple, we added to because we own the position its come down, and for some new accounts we had very little of it so we get it at a low price amazon again is a play on the Delivery System and this stock is going to they are going to have better numbers than they might have otherwise and at this price we think its attractive so those are a few twilio, again all of them. Charles schwab of course their earnings are down. But its going a single digit multiple stock soon on next years earnings if it continues and the same with booking holdings this was a way for us to play whats really oversold for accounts that dont own them yet. So, john, that brings me to you. We sort have taken a longer term view from the investor base. Now lets talk trader base you tell me what youre seeing, tell me what youre doing on a shorter term basis all right, scott. Back in 2015, this is the last time we saw sustained levels over 40 in the vix and it lasted for about 30 days, scott. So just to give you a little Historical Perspective that was, of course, not during the time when we were seeing thousand point gyrations like were seeing new number one, scott, nerve turn a trade into an investment so if you bought on a big dip, then take some profits when you see that big rally i mean monday i was down in new orleans. We had that big down day i was buying into that yesterday we had the big rally and im selling. What im doing, scott, is im not saying im smarter than the market at all. Im saying i am, and i said this on our webcast last night, im not a buyer on a thousand point rally. Im doing the opposite because thats what i think youre supposed to do i think a lot of traders behind me in the vix pit as well as the s p 500 are doing the same sort of the thing youre not adding to positions on a 1,000 point rally in the dow or 1,000 point rally in the s p. Youre taking some off thats from a trading perspective. As far as the number of stocks that i have, i went from about 25 stocks a week ago, down to basically four stocks, one of them is too small to mention so i wont. Microsoft, apple and target. And ive added in on those just like carrie has done, and we didnt coordinate this i actually did the same thing as those guys i was taking some of that money from those stocks that were sold, scott, and putting it into what i think are the best stocks and apple is still now 23 off the lows that it put in on the 28th of february so for some people they would look at that and say wow should be taking that off and the for me im saying this is one of the best the stocks in the market right now. I want to own best of breed right here and i believe that is one thats trying to get a little more positive on the day. I want to talking to you about boeing in a second seema, you have a news alert on boeing which by the way as we speak is down about 11 . Barely holding on to 200. Reporter boeing Ceo Dave Calhoun sending a message to employees saying this year shaping up to be as challenging for our business as any in recent past citing the 737 max s grounding and coronavirus. Boeing is freezing any new personal acquisitions pending review of priorities and critical needs limiting travel and Discretionary Spending and limiting overtime to critical 737 max return to Service Report and other key efforts. The stock move as low as 10 here on the day. Youre in this stock. Theres another report that they are going draw down their whole credit facility, some 14 billion. What are you doing it goes below 200 bucks sometime today or next day. One of the biggest mistakes i made in modern times i was very disappointed naming calhoun the ceo. He was a board member. Lead independent director and he presided over this, what weve seen is one of the biggest corporate meltdowns in history for a company thats still solvent. He did that apology tour with the prior ceo, right, saying no things are great well have the plane in the air by december. Well have one foreign regulator approve it none of that came true when i started thinking about selling it when he did that article last week and he trashed his company, he trashed the former ceo you want somebody that has a steady hand on the wheel that has judgment not somebody thats complicit in the company meltdown because of that i sold it. Hes the wrong person for the company. You didnt sell the whole thing . I didnt sell the whole thing. I still think the plane will be launched by midyear and it will recover. The other reason i sold it frankly is that the airlines, their Balance Sheets are now pinched. You dont go out and buy these things for cash but do you have to continental if their Credit Ratings suffer they will be buying less and their cost goes up so for those reasons i sold it and today was just the icing on the cake jim ive got to agree with steve on everything. You agree let me just start with the mea culpa. I screwed this trade up big time this is embarrassing for both of us with the stock at 206 you say this is where i disagree with you i wont sell it. Im thinking back to the last time hang on hang on, hot shot last time i saw a manufacturer sell off halfway down like this was the automakers in 2008 you got to ask yourself are they similar or dissimilar . I say they are dramatically dissimilar no way that this country allows boeing to go down the path that those Companies Went down. You dont have the same labor relation problems to begin with. Yes, you got an engineering problem but i think they are actually well on their way coming out of it unfortunately as you pointed out steve they are in a perfect storm. The airlines are their biggest customers hurting big time they have to pay reparations for the Airline Customers who need that right now ate perfect storm but is something that i think they will survive and come out of. The damage is done i sold it yesterday when it popped i got you this is the first day i can remember frankly where, yes you have a number of notes coming out from strategists saying we think the s p is going here, there and every where else i dont find it useful today i dont remember a day when you have as many notes coming out with stock picks which tells you theres a thirst maybe to start getting into this market thinking theres bar begins abound, whether you believe that or not is your own personal view these are big names, alphabet, facebook, nike, starbucks, american express, capital one. Im not going read the whole banks. Some banks were putting them on the wall you can see them in front of you if youre watching i tend to agree youre down. You hit almost 20 yesterday or monday down 17, 18 now if you are going deploy capital might wait until steve says 25 or 30. If were right six months a year from now and markets are back to where it is, youll say did i miss some good opportunities and made some real High Quality Companies and can you choose and start nibbling at some of these to add what you want and look at your portfolio, can i upgrade my portfolio also where am i today and what can i buy that i think i didnt get buy or should have bought. Others are talking about walmart and target and costco. You have a defensive case for walmart at another shop as well, open e oppenheimer. Netflix. A lot of names i added to amazon last week i added to alphabet. I shaved a little micron but i increased my micron dramatically yesterday i increased my exposure and shorted more of the s and h. Im trying to hedge what im doing. Picking companies that i think is quality i added key site a very small position key site. Key site has not come down as much as others 5g gets moved up in terms of deployment because you do so much over private network with 5g lets distinguish between markets and stock. Some stocks, my portfolio is a lot higher than the market not a lot higher but higher. My stocks will go down more, i get a much better opportunity to buy. You dont know what the earnings are. Visa, which carrie added to, i own it i havent soiltld it. Visa cut their growth rate market traded up on the premise well have a return to growth this year. We didnt. So when that premise changes the market doesnt deserve where to be where should the market have been when it came down thats what my view is carrie . I want to make a point that addresses some of these companies but also what steve said before which he thinks the market would go down 30 now if we think about what happened in the financial crisis, the world stopped and essentially every bank was really in distress and the whole Housing Market globally had fallen apart. The market went down 50 it came back as we know. It came back a lot but if steve is saying this is 60 , as bad as the financial crisis i got to say thats really a tough measure at 30 , 60 , 50 hes not the only one if you take down the earnings that david costin has done you project 30 from the high before you start to rebuild were in the process of the great unknown. Nobody knows how bad the economy will be hit. I find it almost not saying you, i just say in general it seems to me somewhat irresponsible to try to make these calls when nobody knows what ethic will happen its a combination of trying to look at individual companies and what their earnings power will be starting six months from now and nine months from now and also if you just assume every industry, whether thats badly affected, airlines, hotels, casinos, restaurants, you big the type of business if they lose all of their business for three months its not going close to what the business was that was lost over years in the financial crisis. So i think putting that in some perspective, you have to do some analysis in order to couple with a price. Understood. Even buffett is putting it in perspective. He tells Yahoo Finance today its not even close. It was much more scary by far than anything that happened on monday with the big pull back. I get it i didnt see that. Its worth putting it in perspective. You mentioned a bunch of businesses that will be hurt most likely by this. The market focused on what fortunate and administration are going to do about that, whatever stimulus they can come out with. Eamon javers is live at the white house for us we got trickle out of some ideas. Where do we stand now . Reporter no new information from the white house today we didnt get that press conference yesterday that the president had promised unveiling his economic plan. We got larry kudlow in the Briefing Room suggesting that the centerpiece of the plan but not all the details and the centerpiece is this payroll tax cut. They want to go to 0 on employer and employee side on the payroll tax through the end of the year. If not permanently last night in the Briefing Room i asked kudlow where are you going replace that revenue thats money that goes to support Social Security and medicare youre talk about as much as a trillion dollars a year if you end up cutting the entire payroll tax. Kudlow said they dont have an answer to that question. They wil

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