Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713

News coverage. We begin today with the dow up about 700 points now as youll see in a moment. It has been a whip saw day for wall street as virus fears loom. The dow dipping below 20,000 but zooming back as much as 1,000 points as the Federal Reserve and the Administration Step in to calm investors. Health Care Companies are targeting the virus from treatment to Testing Solutions there you see it up. The ceo will join us this hour here is what you need know. Theres more than 5600 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the u. S. Marriott will furlough tens of thousands of workers as the hotel giant shuts down locations. We have coverage of this today we have more on the white house plans here bob is watching the market seesaw steve is all over the latest move from the Federal Reserve. Ka kayla, lets start with you. Reporter were waiting comments fr comments from capitol hill the rough contours were about 250 billion for Small Business loans and about 500 billion for a payroll tax cut. It appears to have been taken off the table. Earlier the treasury secretary at the White House Coronavirus Task Force Briefing said the administration is now in favor of those direct payments to americans because they will be aquicker salve for the bottom line for these american households and they will go toward the americans who will find themselves out of work. Thats an idea that has been warming among gop senators on capitol hill and could find some welcome reception from that side of the aisle interestingly President Trump asked to elaborate on the change of heart said he still hopes payroll tax cut is possible. The payroll tax is something ive always liked. It does take a period of time, months before they really see something. They believe that employers not having to pay this payroll tax would be one of the quickest ways for them to lower costs and recoup revenue they have lost as they are having to grapple with this economic slowdown on another note, kelly, we have noticed that the Federal Reserve has been making swift moves to stabilize the financial markets. Introducing a trillion dollar facility to buy commercial paper. Considering Relaxing Bank leverage rules that is something we could see happen in the coming days. Bank executives say that would do more than any rate couut woud thank you very much the vix is flatting although elevated we almost hit the 23. 51 range. That was december 24th low right at the open here its still very defensive oriented the Consumer Health care is the leadership group, text okay. Thats holding up. Banks still not doing Anything Energy is notably underperforming. The two things that move the markets, positive medical news and federal action were getting it. I had people asking why isnt boeing up. Theyre talking about mass ifr assistance for the airlines. They arent going anything here today. I think theres concern about the old 2008 system where a number of companies were bailed out and a lot of equity was wiped out. We dont know if that will happen here. I think theres some memory of that out there he reiterated believe in keeping the markets open it may be open it was trading hours here. I know what ising the trading day. Everybody saying were keeping themarkets open. Back do you. Lets get over to the cme now. Thats where rick is monitoring the bond markets after the latest fed moves rick its kind of wild day in terms of pricing in the fixed income and Foreign Exchange markets. I picked tens three day because friday was a very key day. Thats the highest intraday yield we traded. Slightly over 1 were getting close. Were at almost 90 basis points. Were up 16 basis points major steepening lets look at the world in a macro setting on ten year charts our tun years and boons are getting closer together. Thats a good thing. But boons, the best credit in europe is distancing themselves from the different southern economies like italy is widening gents the against their tens in france its widening. Thats important this is since february remember, february 20th we had the high close for the dollar index going back to april of 2017 we are getting very close to that as you see on that chart. Kelly, tyler, the whole gang, back to you. Thank you very much we go to steve who has the latest on Federal Reserve action to inject more liquidity into the credit market today. This is a very esoteric area one of the policies they seem to be worried about sb the money market some seem to be targeted at that right. Exactly right this is the commercial paper market where companies go in for short term funding they fund their inventories. You can get an sate backed facility that funds auto loans or mortgages in there. Really the grease that grinds the wheel. Money markets provide the Cash Companies take the loans out from there that was really getting strained first is the commercial Paper Funding Facility really dusting off the program from 200 2008 t the Federal Reserve use. I know secretary mnuchin said a trillion dollar. I ran it down. Its 700 billion dollar in terms of who might be eligible however, while the stock market seemed to like this development, not so far for people in the market that is involved here i just got on the phone with a Senior Market participate tnt nobody is going to use it. The commercial paper market still not functioning well the reason is the fed set a rate of 200 basis points called the ois. The paper is only trading 122 basis points over it youd have to go and pay more at the Federal Reserve. Thats something im hearing from a couple Market Participants here. It does set a ceiling. Thats good. The fed did say it might go back and change the terms but right n now the fed came in over the market setting too punitive a rate its not having the affect we would have hoped it would have had. Its also very essential to the workings of the treasury market, the money markets and ultimately the stock market steve, its really like trying to fix the plumbing while the water still flowing, right thats exactly right. Its really good way to put it its very hard when the water is still flowing. Things are moving around the fed is moving very quickly here lets be clear they did a whole bunch of stuff on sunday night. I was told they moving at warp speed. Its hard to do this sort of stuff. When the fed does it, it had to work the facility was open today. By the way this runs for a full year this stuff has to work youve got to make the fix while the water is running and there might be a problem here the fed has to go in back and adjust thank you very much youll be watching it and explaining it to us. Lets get a quick check on oil here which is down about 3 . Its sinking towards 27 a barrel it went below 28 thank you very much thanks to all the innovation from the Federal Reserve and the government stocks are rising at this hour lets bring in larry glazer of m mayflower. Welcome to both of you jimmy lee, let me start with you. Youre in las vegas. Ais ill start with the obvious question what is lieit like in las vegas now. Many people are worried its hit main street employers have announced layoffs and furloughs. Parents are having to deal with kids at home a lot of different issues that market decline in the past havent given them its a big deal. Everybody is hopeful its a concern you know id like to get you to comment on something. The decline were in from the top is nowhere near unprecedented. True in fact, were not even at normal bear market levels. True i hear a lot of people saying, i dont include you among them this is not 2008 dont forget this isnt 2008 that doesnt make me feel any better, jimmy. My life has been turned upside down im not speaking to me im talk about the American Public why is this one hitting us so much harder even than some of those other occasions where the fall offs were deeper and more pronounced i agree with you. Its hitting us because its changing our daily lives we havent had bear markets affect peoples daily lives that well be faced with now. I really believe we need to have faith and perspective. Faith that the virus will pass who knows when but it will pass. The economy will recover and even spiritually perspective like you said. People are shocked that the market was lower 15 months ago december 24, 2018 and bear markets are normal were just about there as a financial adviser, identify been in this business 25 years working with investors we have been through the dot come com bubble burst i could convince more investors to allocate more to their Equity Portfolios we want to make sure that adv e advise advisers, this is our time to shine. There are many client os on the phone, minute by minute, the outcome will be critical we need to have play book. The one option not in my play book is pandex selling larry, one of things that has been taking place in the market over the past decade or so have been massive buy backs thats money, cash, capital that corporations have used to buy in stock, to raise the price of the stock, to inflate throughaccoun these companies will find, arent they, two things. They dont have the cash reserves that their dividends will be a little harder to meet. Number two, they may have to tap their revolving credit lines to which they have and dont you think they wish they had that cash now you make a good point we have seen record buy backs the last few years to the middle class. I like higher stock prices as much as anyone what we have done is exceeded all levels of buy back and transferred the burden due to the tax cuts that we saw a few years ago onto the American Public the record deficit, the record debt has enabled this level of buy back if you look at airlines and industry that is very much in the news today, they have squandered 96 of their Free Cash Flow the last decade on buy backs and now they are asking the u. S. Government for buyback for bail out is it my responsibility as a taxpayer and a Small Business own who are has been fiscally responsible to bail out those airlines is it the waitress who loses her job, is it her responsibility to bail out those airlines . I think we have learned nothing from the financial crisis if this is where we are and we dont tie some strings to these bail outs. Were going to boar reto fund whatever packages are coming through the pike i keep hearing from learned people, this is not a financial crisis as though im supposed to be reassured by that this is not 2008 okay its not bad for the banks i love that. At some point if hundreds and thousands of businesses call on their revolve credit lines at once, the banks wont be in great shape, am i right . Even on that point, most families live paycheck to paycheck and most businesses live paycheck to paycheck as we are finding out right now. We go to familiar terminology in times of turbulence like were seeing we talk about recession, financial crisis those terms dont apply in a global pandemic. Theres no play book for a global pandemic. Here is what we do know. This is a depressive dislocat n dislocation. Its going to affect almost all segments of the economy. If were honest with the investors and american people, the volatility will pass for now, its volatile we know the sell offs will pass. Ill tell you whats really optimistic here is you see private equity firms in and around the boston area firms we talk to on a daily basis finding value in the Public Markets thats the first time in a decade we see dividend yields on how quality blue chips so volatility is unimaginable. Jimmy, larry, spirited conversation see you next time. We have some breaking news on macys thats shutting all Locations Nationwide thats right. They are now announcing it will be closing its fleet thats all macys, bloomingdales. This adds to the list of Retailers Closing Stores this is going to keep growing. By my count we have more than 80 brands that have announced store closures so far. Come from big names like nike and apple but up and comers. Look at some of these numbers. Foot locker has more than 2600 locations. They are all shut. American eagle, more than 900. Ulta, more than 200 stores they are so many stores. All in all by my count, more than 23,000 stores in the u. S. Are closed i actually think thats a conservative count because there are more when you add in canada and europe were looking at do mi ining amc totals these numbers show that these retail sales in total fell 0. 5 in february from january that ease the big e month over month drop since december of 2018. Growth from 0. 3 january stronger, february weaker year over here february retail sales grew more than 4 . Interestingly, grocery and health care stores fell slightly thats with the panic by grocers toward the end of the month. That metric is curious to me those fell 1. 4 and 1. 2 respectively back over to you we will bring him in to talk about the shutdown of businesses if you want to chime in get my attention and ask a question welcome. Good to have you with us how are you kelly, nice to be with you im pretty good i think im better than a lot of your members are now how many of these stores and these store chains are going to survive what they are going to have to go through over the next, who know, two months, three months thats the first thing ive say. I think thats clearly reflected in the closers that you talked about. I think every one recognizes that the focus in what i spoke to the president about what has simply we have to take care of the work force and our consumers healthy. Make sure we can get through this period of disruption knowing well get through it at some point in the meantime we need access to liquidity and make sure those businesses continue to take care of their employees and when we get to the other side take care of their customers we can applauds the retailers that have taken steps to protect their employees and the public and follow the Public Health advice that is coming out. Do you like what youre hearing out of washington. Were very encouraged it went well i think many of us have lost track. People like Speaker Pelosi and chairman neil. They are all committed to this they recognize the seriousness of the issue and are trying to move very quickly. Youre seeing the discussion about the things that are being discussed in the senate and leader mcconnell and his members are talking. I think were encouraged its positive. Sochl this takes some time we consider todays conversation with the president and the secretary a real indication they understand the challenge they recognize that the liquidity issues are real. Theyre going to move very quickly both to address those issues and as youve heard later this afternoon, to put packages together that will help consumers and to help individual working american who is will need some assistance and i think if we can all stay focused on those priorities, were going to be in a good position when we get through this which is going to be disruptive in the near term but we will get there let me bring in courtney who has a question for you i wanted to ask, this has been a largely consumer led expansion. We propped up the economy on the shoulders of the consumers will this will be a consumer led recession. You know the leading edge of this was the Hospitality Industry we talked about the airlines and travel industry. I think theres a clear recognition on the part of the administration that over the last few years this really has been about consumer activity and consumption. We need the Small Businesses and retailers to be out there to employ people because those employed people become consumers and not part of the economy. They are trying to do both of those things at the same time and through the loan programs well see coming out of the sba and some of the things that have been talked about with the fed that you were talking with stooefr abostev about theres going to be support for consumers. We need to do both at the same time to make sure it becomes consumer led recovery. Final question. Federal support, federal assistance is one thing. State support, state assistance is another but what would you say to landlords and mortgage holders who could have a role to play in providing to relief to retailers who may not be able to make their rent this month having heard from some of the developers and spoken to some of them and know what they are thinking, they recognize that were all in this together theyre committed to finding solutions that will work because they want to provide Business Continuity opportunities for their tenants and they know they dont have a business. They will be creative and they will be resourceful and support ifr supportive as well thank you for your time i hope well be able to you or you available to us as we move forward. Thanks. We want to get a check on the markets. The dow is up about 950 points after yesterdays massive and historic sell off. The big move today comes after coordinated action from the Federal Reserve. Thats exactly the case when you look at the retail sales numbers, we have this morning. Bear in mind that most Consumer Spending is services and doesnt include hospitality, leisure, travel those kinds of things. If you look at gdp and you can imagine maybe a 5 contraction in gdp, if that happens in one quarter, the gdp numbers will look pretty scary because they are reported in annual rate. It gets really amplified if it happens all at once. We do anticipate the situation bottoming out and probably late april, may then slowly building i think theres a concern we come out the other side, you get towards the end of this year, youre at a level of Economic Activity that is lower than what were starting in now. Obviously, the key point of all of this is theres uncertaint

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