Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240713 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 13, 2024

And oil down 6 to 2860 and change oil now on pace for its worst month ever and here is a stat that really sets the tone for how things have been and it comes from our friend ryan detrick at lpl financial. It markets the serventh straight session that was up or down and this breaks the previous record of six such volatile sessions set all of the way back of november 1929, a true sign of the times. All of the markets rising today. It is clear that we are in unprecedented times for the markets and the economy, but we are here for you here on cnbc with the folks working tirelessly around the clock. Bob is downtown and steve has more on the Federal Reserves move and most of the action came from inside the beltway. Lets get to Kayla Tausche with what was live with the white house response. An unprecedented stimulus package the white house is proposing, 1. 3 trillion in relief for businesses and workers whose revenues and wages are grinding to a halt the treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin putting forth this proposal on capitol hill today to senate republicans. It includes, according to a Senior Administration official 550 billion in direct payments to americans or tax relief up to 300 billion in Small Business aid and up to 100 billion in targeted industry relief and add to that an estimated 300 billion in deferred tax payments. The treasury secretary said the benefit to the American Economy is greater than of the cost. In different times well fix the deficit. This is not the time to worry about it this is the time that hardworking americans are impacted by government decisions. Thats when the government has to step up this proposal is a third package that follows an 8 billion funding package that helps agencies, and a house bill that passed last week that provides an estimated 105 billion in paid sick leave to an estimated 40 million Americans Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell today said that the senate would vote on that bill federal regulators are working to relax postcrisis bank rules to allow banks to continue lending to businesses as their earnings continue to deteriorate and have a loan Backstop Program that is unveiled this week the department of defense it is it is providing masks, ventilators and Testing Facilities and is deploying the National Guard to aid in the coronavirus effort here. Of course, after weeks of mounting concerns about the spread of this virus and the economic fallout, the effort from wish wash is now in full force. Kayla tausche, thank you very much now lets get back to bob pisani at the New York Stock Exchange hes here to talk about markets the consumer and i assume maybe a trillion dollar plus bailout, as well, bob. It moved the markets, brian the dow swung in a 1500point range from its low right after the open to its midday high and this time the rally held and i think there was plenty of stimulus talk from the white house and both houses of congress and the fed establishing a commercial paper funds facility to buy unsecured shortterm debt issued to raise funds and todays rally fell tentative and it was a rally and it came on lighter volume than usual. Volatility has also flattened out a bit and i say flattened out because the vix remained extremely elevated and its been flat the last several days and it would be nice as yields shot up dramatically at the end of the day and j. P. Morgan outperforming the market for the first time in a while, but defensive stocks still led and this has been the story. Outsized gains from consumer names like spice maker mccormick and hormel foods and clorox also at a new high. After a dismal few days large retailers also bounced back including urban outfitters, tjx and best buy and all down double digits boeing and the airlines will be a part of the Stimulus Program and you heard from kale a government help sounds good. Traders tell me there may be lingering concerns from the financial crisis when bailout programs for autos and insurers wiped out the equity for shareholders and that could be an issue, brian certainly could bob pisani at the nyse thank you very much. So bob mentioned the commercial paper market so before we get into more of the fed and what theyre doing perhaps its helpful to highlight first what exact leet commercial paper market is youll be hearing a lot about it well, at the core, cp as you will hear it called is a fancier term for shortterm loans. Loans of a few weeks or months or shorter that can help companies and Small Businesses do critical things like make boy roll and buy the goods they need to stock their shelves the purpose of the cp market is millions of companies dont have to go get formal bank or Small Business loans every couple of weeks and months when they need shortterm cash. Put very simply, its the grease on the wheels of cash flow so how big is the commercial paper market its big the latest data shows it is over 1 trillion, although, believe it or not, that is actually less than it was before the financial crisis lets bring in now Steve Liesman and tell us about the fed, the cp market and why it is so key to keeping that grease in the wheels of the market flowing. Yeah. Great explanation there, brian and it was a very busy day for the fed. What happened is people were not the companies and the the investors were not buying that commercial paper and as you described it so critical to business that if they cant get this commercial paper, well, really, they cant operate and the reason, of course, is because money markets are the ones who buy a lot of that commercial paper they were afraid of getting drawn down and there are outflows so a big day for the fed and answering the call of of many in the market to backstop this commercial pirp or cp market they created the commercial Paper Funding Facility and they same name and pretty much the same turn and the Company Provided a 35 million backstop. It could buy up to 700 million of the oneplus trillion, some of the people is not included in there. The fed will let you do another complicated thing. The reviews on the commercial paper were not that great, brian. Person person said it replicates its actions in 08, welcome, but not enough the billion dollar bill is a start, but the focus on the payroll tax cut is a mistake another Senior Market participant i talked to said it is too punitive right now. Thats what theyre using and the commercial paper market is still not functioning well others say it may eventually function well and brian, heres whats going on in the credit markets and the economy is being shut down because of the virus and actions to stop the spread of the virus, but nobody figured out how to pay for it, so whats going on right now is theres concern about default and risk in a lot ofcredits right now and almost every actor in the financial industry is trying to make sure that theyre not stuck with those credits that will default or be at risk. Thats why what the administration is doing is so important and thats why what thefed is doing so important and two months or so that it is shut down because of the virus maybe youve done the market on the total, commercial fed and repo operations and possibly this trillion dollar stimulus . Are we at their 4, 12 terrell on the purpose the reason the fed is puts down 150 of that and comes back in the afternoon and puts 500 billion on offer on evernight repo and the market is taking 15 to 20 of that right now and the cp market it could be up to 700 billion according to the rules of the offering, but we dont know how much theyre going to take. I think if you take the 700 billion the feds going to purchase and the trillions in repo, we are into multiple trillions of dollars of available funds from the fed to backstop the Financial System right now. Basically the entire oneyear tax receipts of the federal government so far, Steve Liesman. Thank you, steve we appreciate it all right lets bring in guy adamy and dan nathan both here at the nasdaq. Well start with you, at a time of incredible stats ive got another one for you from the bond market and this one courtesy of national securities. Today was actually the sharpest oneday move for 30day bond yields since the year 2000 what does that tell you . It tells me a lot, if you have watched the last 15 years ive been a half empty person and thats the way i was raised on wall street, but im going to be the half full person today because i know as painful as this is for everybody watching, were going to get through it and well get through it on the other side better than we were when we got here thats my absolute belief. With that said, as you know my concern all along has been the bond market and i would be willing to bet the people that actually understand this stuff would have wanted the stock market to close unchanged today or even slightly lower and the yields in the market not move as precipitous to me. So theres absolutely some solace in the fact that we traded down with the s p 500 and effectively the december was what the low, and i guess it was 18 or so and thats a good thing any illsay it again the move in the bond markets are scary. Treasuries should not be moving like theyre moving. If they can stabilize it whatever that yield is and maybe its 1. 25 in the tenyear or thereabouts, that actually could be a really good thing and if you recall on the way down i said, listen, theres going to come a point of sddiminished margin returns that if we hit it the stock market wont like it and in the yields that was down 1. 4 and it stands to reason that on the way up 1. 4 better be resistance. We have to find out lets go to dan nathan. Most of the questions youre probably getting on twitter and social media or as i am, what are the key signs of capitulation a market bottom and are we seeing any of them now we are and just the velocity of the down move is unprecedented and down 30 peak to trough in a month here and were in this market right now where its one step forward and two steps back in a way. Yesterday was the biggest point decline in the dow jones and today, you know, we made up half of that. When guy was talking to some of those Technical Levels in the s p 500 that december 2018 low, we stopped yesterday just above that thats great, but if we fail then the next level below that would probable ebb ty be the br after the president ial election and that is below 2200 so we might have this support pocket between 2350 and 2150, and i think that would be significantly oversold, but then i think you want to look at the single stock level, right . So we know a lot of stocks have just been absolutely decimated in such a short period of time and well more than, say, the market would tell you with the s p 500 down 22 and we know you can look across transports and energy and a whole heck of a lot of other places where stocks were down 40, even 50 heres the one thing that i would tell you is a sign of capitulation in the long term is microsoft and apple and two of the largest market Cap Companies here in the u. S. And also in the world have outperformed in the down side. I think apple is down 30 on the year and microsoft down 7 down and theyre up meaningfully year over year if we look at march 17th levels, 2019, and investors might be waiting for to give up a lot of that and you might feel capitulation and then you might start seeing some of these other names that have been hit much harder in the industrial space and maybe the financials and maybe the transports start to outperform as we get a little worse. Those are some of the things that i might look for capitulation and one last point and i just have to go back all of the way to 2001 that peak to trough decline in that recession was 50 from the march 2000 highs to the lows in october 2002 and ill just tell you in that time period there were three rallies off of lows that were greater than 20 so i think what my point is impeach you can have these vicious bear market valleys here and it doesnt mark the bottom and you need to think interest of the stuff that guy was saying in the credit markets and you need to see the fiscal and monetary still laws work into the economy and let people feel better about the Financial Markets and the last thing ill leave you can is time is going to be a really, really important part of a bottoming process and capitulation will be in the nearterm. Before i go back to guy do you anticipate when we get this bottom and weve been highlighting the mega stocks, and the microsofts and the googles that when the market does turn a lot of people are saying what should i buy do you think the leaders of the previous rally will be the leaders of the new rally once or if it comes . Yeah. I suspect so i dont think were going to see that any time soon the other one is, like, look at the mosts that they have with the Balance Sheets and look at what they have with the market share and to me these are companies that will not be bailed out and if you look at history, some bad investments were buying those names on the bailout when we go back to the financial crisis and long term, they ended up being Good Investments and thats not what you want to make a portfolio right here of if youre thinking about getting free cash. You do not want to buy beaten up retailers and you do not want to buy beaten up airliners. Nearterm you might get short squeezes and dollar cost averaging into the massive tech names that have those monopolies, i think thats probably the way to do it and the qqq is the way to do it because we know those four stocks, microsoft, google, and amazon made up the nasdaq 100 just about a month ago. Guy, we look back at previous big drops on the market whether it was 2001 and 2008, various things and is there any historical present the way the mechanics have changed and of all of the stuff that we talk about, do we expect downside and to the upside. Ten years to your point, 08 and ooes 04. We are still in, and thats not sheer to cast aspersions and somehow the Federal Reserve had our back coupled with this advent of passive investment led to a market that passed everything and again, just for point of reference and this is not an apple negative thing and im not saying it for that reason and go back the weekend when apple said their numbers will probably not come in based on what was going on in china. On that friday apple closed in or about 22 a share i think it was an alltime high and the next day, that monday the stock, i think opened down 6 which is meaningless in terms of the move it had seen over the last six months and by tuesday of that week it was making a new alltime high. So apple told you what was going on effectively and the market didnt care. Passing, investing, the fed put and the that had an impax, absolutely things happen might faster maybe this wont be as prolonged as people think. Maybe the snap back when it comes will be faster, as well. Guy and dan, thank you very much important advice at a time like this cnbc has continued coverage of these historic times on wall street make sure to catch our special report markets in turmoil at 7 00 p. M. Eastern. Right now we have breaking news on softbank. Lets go to rahela solomon dow jones reporting that softbank is backing out of the bailout plan and this is according to people familiar with the matter. Softbanklling wework that it may not buy 3 billion of shares from existing investors as had been planned essentially what theyre saying is because we work under this investigation by the sec and the Justice Department essentially saying those preg lat or probes allow it to back out of the rescue deals that were signed in october. This is according to people familiar with the matter and the dow jones. One thing important to note here it will not affect the 5 billion lifeline that softbank had already agreed to give we work directly also important to note that apparently this will this would have allowed former ceo newman to sell nearly 1 billion in stocks so it looks like softbank was pulling back on that offer that would have given adam newman again 1 billion of a share purchase well see how this all plays out. Rahel solomon, thank you very much. On this deck on this big night. The very latest numbers on the virus spread plus some good news. The Biotech Company that says it is closing in on a potential Coronavirus Vaccine. Well bring you the potential time line, as well and later, Small Business bearing the brunt of the burden on the economic front lines. We will take you live with more on the u. S. Economy because not just just about stocks and its about business and workers in america right now and well be back in two minutes. Before we talk about taxsmart investing, whats new . Audreys expecting. Twins wed be closer to the twins. Change in plans. At fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. Shouldnt you pay less when now you can. Data . Because Xfinity Mobile gives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 300 off when you buy a new Samsung Galaxy s20 ultra. Thats simple. Easy. Awesome. Call, click or visit a store today. Welcome back and good evening. We are getting new numbers on the extend of the coronavirus. Lets get to sue herera at hq to hear where things stand. Good evening. We got in some new numbers 196,000 cases and almost 7900 deaths meantime, defense secretary mike esper has announced more ways that the pentagon is becoming involved in the fight against the coronavirus. 5 milliones prart masks and ventilators are being made available for distribution by the government and theyre getting other help, as well. We have 18 states and over 1500 guardsmen activated at different parts around the country. As we get requests in, we will look at activating at the federal level or using the reserves ma

© 2025 Vimarsana