Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240713 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 13, 2024

Works ceo will be joining him along with other content and we are out of time, from myself and tyler matheson, mike santoli has you on the other side. Stocks surge as Congress Says that help is on the way when thats still the question. Good evening and welcome to cnbcs continued coverage of markets and the economy in turmoil. I am brian sullivan. In a year of firsts it was another recordbreaking day on wall street. The dow soaring 2,112 points, thats its biggest point gain ever and the first time the index has risen more than 2,000. That move translates into an 11. 37 gain making it the largest climb and the biggest since 1933 on this as they close on a massive package for the American People that could be in the trillions of dollars and well have much more on that coming up and first, lets get to the markets and the money on another wild and record breaking day on wall street we begin with bill nygree in. We need to hear from you on a night like this. These are the machines coming in and do you take solace in todays rally that some type of longer or medium bottom may have been found at oakmark we dont consider ourselves experts at market timing we think stocks are really cheap if you believe as we do that the economy will eebt alventually r as will the pe multiple and i do agree with what jim said that the markets are not functioning especially well. Its difficult to sell things that you see when theyre up its hard to buy things when theyre down, but stocks are cheap. We think, as always, investors should take advantage of defining markets to rebalance portfolios and buy some Equity Holdings and make sure that theyre exposed to this asset class as they want to be long term is it possible to know, bill, though, what is cheap when we just dont knowwhat any of the metrics, the earnings and anything is going to be . Well, i think this is why its so important that investors differentiate between what are onetime occurrences and what are the changes in longterm estimates. Longterm changes you have to think about applying a pe multiple to those changes. If youre just talking about something thats a onetime hit, then obviously, the multiplier on that is just one. I think of a company that we really like today, we like a lot of the financial, but allied financial and i was on an interview a few weeks ago and i was talking about how cheap the stock was at twothirds times twothirds of book value and it traded at onethird of book value yesterday. If you take the feds adverse, severely adverse stress test scenario, we could use one year of income and it doesnt damage their capital base and assuming the market recovers the following year, and the economy recovers it wouldnt affect their longterm earnings so youd have maybe stocks like a 12 stock. Its got a 30some dollar book value and supposed to earn about 4 a share they being lose those earnings if this lasts more than a quarter or two, but you have to think about the current slump lasting more than a year if you think about it being more of a 4 hit, and the stocks on 20, and there are a lot of attractive values if you believe the economy will eventually get better or i guess, bill, and i dont want to put words in your mouth or if you believe that all of these fed programs and there were too many acronyms to list and its far better in 08 and 09 and theyll backstop credits, loans, banks to the point where you dont need ton these multiples and would you be a buyer of chase, citigroup, and b of a we own citi we own b of a and we own wells fargo and own a lot of the banks. We think the banks are very, very cheap theyre much better than they were going into the last recession, and if i went through each stock name by name the story would be very similar to ally that if you think were dealing with something that could be a twoquarter recession, the banks may be risk a years worth of earnings, but not a significant dent into their capital. How much is getting a stimulus plan signed and done going to matters to the equity markets locker longer term clearly today you saw the market anticipating that that is going to happen and no company was designed to have zero revenue for an extended period of time. We clearly need help to get through however deep not so much how deep the river is we know how deep the river is, and its how wide the river is i think there have been a lot of stories over the past couple of weeks about our Health Care Workers in the country and how inspiring they are im proud of the private sectors response yhow the Drug Companies have been trying to find a vaccine and its been hard finding the politicians in both parties who find advancing on longterm agendas or positioning themselves for Upcoming Elections than they are in trying to put a package to revise the economy its important that it needs to get done quickly. And on that note i believe youre still a large holder or were prior to this of regeneron. We are a large holder of regeneron. Its been one of the strongest stocks on the s p 500. As Everything Else in our portfolio has been declining, i cant tell you what weve been doing, but it would be fair to think if we acted as we typically did that wed needed to trim that position a little bit, but its a great business, and this has really shown the advantage that they have with their genetic coding and how far advanced they are and the ceo talks about their mice that are human equivalents and how much more quickly this can lead to them finding a cure or a vaccine for the coronavirus. We are thrilled to be investors in regeneron bill nygren being looking out offer the long term and with certainly values will be found in the year to come. Thank you for joining us. Thanks, brian. These market, congress furiously trying to work out the final details of a record breaking stimulus plan the senate is working quickly to get something done and there are still major sticking points like potential bailouts for Pension Plans among other things Kayla Tausche joins us with the latest on where it all stands and if well get a vote and if well get a vote tonight kayla . Brian, negotiators have been on the 2 yard line for five hours at this point. I am told the white house expects a deal by the time the sun goes down this evening, and that would be a deal in principle with the legislative text of that deal still needing to be combed through there are a handful of outstanding issues, but i am told none of them are highly contentious. Among things currently being discussed is the structure and size of the Federal Reserves main Street Lending facility who caqualifies for that and how much will they get Chuck Schumer is trying to get more money for states and hospitals to drive up some of the dollar figures in the existing gop proposals and even so, brian, with all of this work to get done, it is highly unlikely to get a vote tonight those i am in touch with say it is more likely to see something tomorrow or later in the week as they dry to drum up support among their members. As for when the economy can open and well see the money start flowing through, theyre earmarked to go through on april 6th and President Trump says he wants to reopen the economy six days after that on april 12th or easter he explained his rationale a little bit about how he came to that conclusion. He said easter is a very special day for me and i see its sort of in that time line that im thinking about i said wouldnt it be great to have all of the churches full of people and have the churches full Easter Sunday youll have packed churches all over the country. I think it would be a beautiful time earlier before he made the decision to float the date of april 12th for economic reopening he held a car with investors and with the Vice President , as well some wall street heavy weights ranging from dan lobe to Steve Schwartzman of blackstone and getting their assessment of how healthy the markets and the economy are right now and what more the Federal Reserve could do to stabilize those markets and to inject capital into the economy. They discussed their outlook for the u. S. Economy and President Trump today said that they are saying that gdp could take a 25point hit and it is likely that that room of heavy weights, brian, is who they are Kayla Tausche in washington, kayla, thank you very much all right now lets bring in guy adami and tim seymour. Guys, i want to listen to this to highlight how volatile the markets have been, the 11 largest point gains and drops and four of the largest pesa percentage moves of all time have now come in just the last three weeks. We are literally rewriting the record books in many ways. Do you believe, guy adami that a stimulus plan will calm these markets at all or is kind of the expectation already priced in . It will help, and its great to be back with you. It clearly will help and yesterday on a day where obviously the market had a difficult day, i tried to point out some of the grain chutes i saw and we mentioned the fact that the indiscriminate selling was gone and you saw recovery in some of the chip names and there was some reason for optimism now today on a day when the market is up historic amounts and i hope it gets pushed through and they do it in a thoughtful way, but it concerns me that you saw the vix go from 52 to 61 market, you know, not that it matters all that much, but i think the volatility index was unchanged today at levels that, you know, are typically unsustainable. Thats a bit of a concern as is some of the things that are going on in the gold market, but to your point, although this is encouraging in terms of the bounce, were in for this for a while, so i dont think necessarily that the stimulus package will assuage the concerns of the Market Participants lets go back to where most of the viewership were involved and interested which is 2008. Right we had the percentage big moves in october of 08. The market didnt bottom until march of 09, four months later after gigantic moves to the upside, do you kind of expect the same move here no. This is the time line. It is obviously much more compressed and you talked about the record moves and markets and what weve seen. How about lets assume 2 yard line and weve been hearing this all day. The reality is this is going to get done how about the swiftest, largest policy response in advance of a recession that weve ever seen in history, as well how about the fed buying 75 million in bonds in addition to the 150 basis point cut to essentially zero after 50 interim cut. The response has been extraordinary and the other thing that i think punctuates todays market move is you had ceos coming forward and giving you some insight into what is going on in the business and Kevin Johnson on the network talking about the uptick theyre seeing in china, fantastic news. The headlines that apple expects to open their stores some time in the first half of april and fantastic news and companies coming forward and reaffirming dividends and maybe saying theyre cutting capex and not a bad idea and getting insight into the corporate sector at a time when the policy response is extraordinary when markets were so oversold and ill let you continue with the hyperbole and youre accurately putting it in that terms, but if you look at cyclical assets being one to two standard deviations cheap to their historic averages. You get an equation to add itupo to today and what happens tomorrow closing above the 2355 s p Christmas Eve low was important. We are now 12 above that sunday night and lows on the s p futures and it looks like you see markets that could want to take you youre somewhere in between here and that 2630, 2650 level. Thats where markets are, but we still got reminders of pmi and sort of probably going to get worse today and the eu composite, 31, i think, and the u. S. Services ism not very good. The macro, brian, ultimately is something that were also still waiting it see before its an allclear. Want to go back to you, tim, before we go back to guy you tweeted something thats remarkable lululemon was super popular before all of this happened. The stock moved 50 up or down in four days that is an insane stat and it shows that maybe the markets are broken, the algos are in charge and to jim cramers points that these kinds of rallies arent sustainable and what does that movement in lulu show you . Its easy to blame the algos. The freeport that did a 50 trough to peak, what do those sectors have in common you have companies that certainly have dead issues and not necessarily lulu, but certainly freeport or at least sectors that the investing community has been punishing for months even coming into this because i think there is some fear that where companies are going go lulu which i think is best of breed and an opportunity for investors to be buying a valuation that makes sense in lulu after scratching their heads for a long time is a different story, but that is what you get and as i say all of the time on fast money you make the most money when things go from terrible to just bad and thats what weve seen over the last couple of days and certainly the brave have been rewarded and i dont think you have a nonstop move here and i would caution that we still have headwinds ahead of us. And guy, it seems like were getting these kinds of moves in a market that doesnt make sense to a lot of people and probably today toward the end, you have shorts being put back on again, i wouldnt be surprised if it would be a thousandpoint decline and then the shorts get taken back off and at what point does the rational thinking take control of these markets guy adami, are you there we have lost guy adami. Tim seymour, i will say goodbye to you, too. If we get guy back on well patch him back in. Thank you. Coming up, making america work again maybe sooner than some people want the president says he wants to get the American Economy back to business by april, folks, thats april 12th, but are we rushing the time line as the coronavirus cases continue to spike ahead of the nations Largest Union group. Richard trumka, later on, turning a corner and potentially promising news from china on the virus and well ke ytaou there live on what their timeline may say about ours i know that every single time that i suit up, there is a chance that thats the last time. 300 miles an hour, thats where i feel normal. I might be crazy but im not stupid. Having an annuity tells me that im protected. During turbulent times, consider protected Lifetime Income from an annuity as part of your retirement plan. This can help you cover your essential monthly expenses. Learn more at protectedincome. Org. Id love to have it open by easter. Oh, wow i will tell you that right now. I would love to have that. Its such an important day for other reason, but ill make it an important day for this, too i would love to have the country opened up and just raring to go by easter. All right the president saying he wants to have the country back up and running within the next 19 days, by easter, as the number of cases continue to spike. According to Johns Hopkins there are now 51,500 cases in america, friday at this time there were 16,600 so is it realistic to expect that kind of an advanced time line lets get reaction from the nations Largest Labor group joining us is Richard Trumka, president of the aflcio and i want to say this to everybody out there, richard, is when i hear about america working again, i get what theyre going for. Millions of americans, our staff here is still working. Youve got people that are still working. Grocery store workers, nurses, doctors, a lot of people are still working. That aside, do you agree with the president s timeline on a macro level . We do, have, brian, millions of people working to protect the rest of us, mailmen to letter carriers and everyone else and frontline workers are protectioning us look, the primary concern of ours has to be protecting the health and the welfare of american citizens. So we need to listen to the Health Care Professionals to tell us when we are ready to restart things look, the Stimulus Program is designed as a bridge to get us across this hole to the other side so that we can keep things going while we have things shut down to take care of the health care crisis, and any attempt to prematurely restart the government or the economy right now will result in two things. It will result in more deaths and it will result in a deeper setback for the government, for the economy, thus, negating much of what the Stimulus Program is designed to prevent. So we think that we need to listen to the Health Care Professionals. Let them tell us from we need to go and when we need to get there and not let any arbitrary day try to restart the American Free fair enough, richard, when you say on do we let dr. Fauci that, there will be Health Care Professionals who will say, yeah being the anger can go back to work with the nokt month, and there are others who say shut it down for six months and even of the Health Care Professionals will not agree on a firm date. I guarantee you. Thats true, but you can have a main line consensus with those Healthcare Specialists the main line says we should be doing a shutdown weve all agreed to do that. We need to listen to those professionals and yeah, there will be some at both extreme, but the main line will tell us what we should do and then we can start restarting the economy because again, a premature restart of the economy is going to result in more deaths and a bigger setback for the economy and actually negate all of the good that the Stimulus Program thats about to be passed is going to do for the economy. Our friend mark cuban had expletiveladen tweets as mark tends to do, and basically richard, sayi

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