Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713

Done here you see the home builders, weve had a terrific rally in the builders in the last few days but hovnanian was 29 just a month ago. Its a 9 stock right now. Yes, weve had a great rally, but bear in mind how far weve come and how many more headlines we have yet to get through a lot of people are also optimistic watching the vix drop it has dropped exactly in half since march 15th it was 86 on an intraday basis march 15th, you see it at 43 exactly a 50 drop thats making a lot more people a lot more optimistic. A lot more arguments that the markets are higher have been mitigated by the fact that weve just had such a big rally and its hard to push against this rally right now. Look at these stocks right here and how much they have moved since the market bottomed, the february 21st close, which is when things really started get getting bad. Walmarts up, verizon is only down 1 . Merck and 3m down a few percent. This is when things started getting really serious you see how much the market has come back. A lot of stocks, movers today. Levi strauss, pinterest, mcdonalds withdrawing guidance, dicks furloughing workers tesla furloughing workers. This is important to remind yourself of what were still going through when you think the worst is behind us is it bull market or bear market just bear in mind, look what weve had here we have a 23 rally off of the lows thats good news were 20 from the 52week highs. That was 35 a few weeks ago so where are we . Is it a bull market or bear market i just call it markets in the middle and i think thats the best way to characterize it right now we can go either way, still. Tough headlines ahead of us. Markets in the middle thank you, bob lets get over to Rick Santelli who is tracking the moves in the bond market, rick . If you look at the short end today, unlike the last several days, rates in the short end are a little squeamish today, not showing much upside. So priced more to the upside than the down side we are steepening the curve, but it isnt really a bear steepening, its all based on the long end look at the differences as you look at the difference of 30year bonds. We had a great aux todction tod. Peter boockvar tweeting out, you know, the treasury secretary ought to notice, only 17 billion 30s and they were gobbled up maybe we need to do more at this rate i would agree with that. Lets look at tens this is from midmarch the reason its so interesting is, the high close from the 18th is basically 120 and thats the high close after the alltime low from the 9th of march, which was 54. You could see kind of flattening out. Finally, the dollar index. Listen, its choppy in foreign exexchan exchange, but still aiming up and strong with regard to Global Demand tyler . Mr. Stantelli, thank you ver much as we await Steve Liesmans review of the fed minutes, lets turn to two experts to talk about the markets, the economy, and if we get interrupted by steve, those fed minutes samant samantha azzarello, and michelle meyer, b of a Global Research head for u. S. Economics. Welcome to both of you, ladies samantha, let me start with you. I guess im a little bit concerned that the market is ahead of itself. Do you feel that way i would agree with that if you think back to 2008, we had more than ten bear market rallies. And its very likely that we could be in one of those right now. So not going to be dismissive of the positive news were seeing and the market responding to that, in turn, but we think its too early for us to have hit the bottom, just given how the Economic Data and the corporate Earnings Data is likely to play out. There is so much, samantha, we dont know. We dont know about what the shape of the recovery is, u, l, v, whatever that spells love, doesnt it we could all use a little love right now, but what is your best guess about how quickly the economy recovers when it starts to open up later this spring or summer so speaking of those letters, we are of the view that the shape of the recession is, in fact, going to be ushaped but to your point, which is a very good one, right, how does it look at the bottom . How long does that stall and in our view, we likely need to see a vaccine for to us truly get out of that bottom of the ushape. We do think, though, that therell be a fair amount of pentup demand, and if china is any indication, were starting to hear on the ground news from china that real estate is coming back, car sales, people are back out in restaurants so i think its really interesting that when we do come out of this, we do expect demand to come back and the economy to surge. Michelle, we want to bring you into the conversation now. On the bright side, as has been well reported, the fed has already been very aggressive as far as stabilizing the economy, but looking ahead, how much more ammunition do they have in their tool kit what can investors look forward to now i do think theres more that policy makers can do, both in terms of the Federal Reserve and in terms of the fiscal authority. So in terms of the fed, yes, theyre expanding their Balance Sheet rapidly. Theyre buying unlimited amounts of treasuries and mortgages right now, so unlimited qe theyre actively engaged in a number of different markets in terms of credit facilities, funding facilities, and the like but theres more they can do in that their Balance Sheet could expand a whole lot more. There really isnt a cap to their Balance Sheet right now in terms of its share of gdp. And they can be they can lower some of the rates that theyre charging if that is needed and if you look at what the fed has done thus far, theyve been really responsive. They take signals from Market Participants if one of their policies or facilities is not quite doing what it needs to do, they go ahead and they change. They adapt and they try their hardest, i think, to make sure that theres liquidity in the market. So, yeah, i think the fed absolutely can do more michelle, samantha, were going to interrupt here. Stay with us, as we go to steve liesman, who has now had some time to digest the fed minutes from that meeting a couple of weeks ago. The emergency meeting on a weekend. Hi, steve. Tyler, im going to correct you right off the bat, it was three weeks ago, which in coronavirus time, is about seven years. But this is what the fed was thinking on a weekend that was scheduled for wednesday. They said they expect the funds rate to be at zero or a quarter percent and remain at that level until the economic effects of the virus pass they said, the nearterm Economic Outlook had deteriorated sharply when they met, and they were willing and prepared to use their full set of tools to support credit markets. And you can see over the ensuing three weeks, tyler, that they ended up or have used at least a very large collection of their set of tools that they have to help credit markets. And there has been some success in that with still additional work for the Federal Reserve to do in many credit markets. So, tyler, this was the first i dont know what you want to call it, really the second emergency meeting that they had had. They had previously done 50, and this is where they brought it down to zero and a quarter and then they announced 700 billion of additional quantitative easing or purchases for credit markets. Since then, tyler, i think there have been commitments for, i dont know how much, but certainly, in the trillions of dollars since even this meeting took place, which was historic in and of itself so let me come back, then, steve, if i might to rahels very good question from a moments ago. What does the fed still have on the shelf . I suppose the simple answer is, they can make money. Well, yes and essentially, thats what theyre doing. So still on the shelf is this main Street Lending facility tyler, this main Street Lending facility that the fed has could expand the Balance Sheet by 4 or k5d trillion if they use this simple tentoone ratio of treasury money to fed money theyve used in the past just so people would understand, the fed would take 100 of collateral and the treasury would take the first 10 piece of whatever losses there the fed would be protected using that 450 billion that was given to the Federal Reserve in the cares act. There is still several areas, tyler, where the Federal Reserve has some problems in the markets. You have this Mortgage Service issue that diana olick has written a lot about. You have people not paying their mortgages. So the people the companies that are supposed to pay it are in really a bind right now of liquidity. So thats another area high yield credit is another issue. Theres all of main street theyve done a lot, i dont know what percentage, but a big chunk of the economy left for liquidity and credit problems. All right, steve liesman, thank you very much. And well talk more about that mortgage issue just a little bit later. Back to our conversation with michelle and samantha. Michelle, let me ask you this. Your prediction for Second Quarter gdp or b of as is a negative 30 print what is that going to look like in terms of unemployment and in terms of bankruptcies and in terms of general economic distress and the effect that it is going to have on consumers as they dont have money to spend so the numbers are stark, as you know a 30 decline in one quarter is quite aggressive and that comes out to what we think will be a 7 decline in q1 and most of the downturn is happening simply, its now so the last weeks of march and april, we were seeing this very acute decline in the economy and particularly in consumer spending, as part of the economy has been effectively shut down so what does that mean it means that jobs are being cut. We see that in the initial jobless claims numbers about 10 Million People filed for jobless claims over the last two weeks. Lets see what happens this week tomorrow, we get another number. We think it could be another 6. 5 Million People that file for Unemployment Insurance the april jobs report, which is released in early may, is going to show, you know, between 10 to 15 Million People have lost their jobs during this period of time the Unemployment Rate will very quickly spike into double digits so thats all known, i think, at this point the big question to me is what comes next how do we get out of it . Whats the timing and how effective are these policy tools . That is the great mystery samantha, final question to you. I know that you urge people to stick with their basic plan not to panic, but maybe to make moves around the margins, around the edges of their portfolios. What would those marginal, edgy moves be right now what are you talking about there . Thats right. Were not comfortable yet, you know, talking about opportunities. Were just not there in markets given that more needs to shake out. When were talking about on the edge, around the margins, were really talking about getting back the plan. So for example, a 60 40 stock bond portfolio from the beginning of the year to now has shifted a lot. Most investors have become more conservative just by the fact that weve had massive market moves. So adding to equities around the margins makes sense to get back up to plan and particular sectors we like splernl, thats going to be consumer staples, its going to be technology and health care, given everything thats going on right now. Okay. Samantha azzrello and michelle meyer, we appreciate your insight. Today, Bernie Sanders officially withdrawing from the president ial race, making joe biden the apparent nominee lets get to Kayla Tausche now for the latest kayla . Reporter hi, rahel the vermont progressive is exiting the race, but in election vernacular, the word suspend is important it gives the candidate discretion over how to use funds and direct staff that have been assembled in thefrt. And in sanders case, its especially important he told supporters in a live stream earlier today that while hes getting out of the race, he wants to stay on the ballot ahead of a slew of june primaries to try to influence the partys platform heres sanders in his own words. I will stay on the ballot in all remaining states and continue to gather delegates while Vice President biden will be the nominee we must continue working to assemble as many delegates as possible at the Democratic Convention where we will be able to exert significant influence over the party platform. The most recent delegate count according to nbc news had joe biden, the former Vice President , at close to 1,200 delegates. He needs 1,991 to become the presumptive nominee. Sanders intends to stay on the ballot in many of those critical june 2nd primary states. As for president trumps reelection campaign, they are already gearing up for november. The Campaign Manager Brad Parscale tweeting, with bernie suspending his campaign, its clear that the dem establishment got the candidate they wanted in sleepy joe, but biden and sanders agree on all the big issues, they are both the same clearly trying to pin biden as a socialist, as they have for sanders in all of the previous months well see exactly how the messaging is shaping up as this Campaign Comes clear into view now. Guys kayla, thank. A little bit more clarity for the markets, which im sure a lot of investors can appreciate. Coming up, markets hanging on to gains. It looks like materials, utilities, and real estate right now leading the s p 500 rally. This is after yesterdays big reversal and the Small Business Lending Program has already processed billions of dollars, but when will companies actually get their hands on that cash the ceo of oceanfirst, a Regional Bank in new jersey, will join us and tell us what hes hearing on the ground well have much more coming up after this we cannot do all the good that the world needs. But right now, the world needs all the good that we can do. To everyone working to keep america strong, thank you. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Well, welcome back, everybody. Glad you could join us Small Businesses have been applying for billions of dollars worth of loans from the governments Lending Program, but when will companies actually start seeing that cash kate rogers has the latest details. Hi, kate hi, tyler weve been speaking to Business Owners all over the country, dozens in recent days, and we did find one that made some progress so far. Hes the owner of a Primary Care Clinic in florida. He says he applied on saturday with chase by tuesday, he had a 120,000 p ppp loan cash in hand. In fact, he was able to get payroll out the door today for his nine employees for friday. But more broadly, the sba say figures that have gone out from banks to Small Businesses are not yet available. What they can tell us, 330,000 applications have been assigned those sbaetran loan numbers many businesses are still in a holding pattern, waiting for these firstcome, firstserved funds. Today we heard from Steven Mnuchin trying to ease some of tharz fears that this cash might run out. I want to assure all Small Businesses out there, we will not run out of money the president has asked us to go back to congress we hope they pass this tomorrow and friday and we want to assure everybody, if you dont get a loan this week, youll get a loan next week or the following week the money will be there. Mnuchin is working with congress on that additional 250 billion for pp rks for their part, Congressional Democrats want half of that money to be ear marked for Community Banks that serve farmers and businesses that are owned by women, minorities, and veterans a lot of concern about this cash running out, but also concerns about who this cash ends up going to back over you guys kate, what are you hearing about the frustration level of some applicants who allege that there are hairballs in the process, that the banks arent exactly making this easy you know, tyler, weve heard from people who are in all different phases some are in line, waiting to hear from their banks. So have actual applications and some have secured those e tran loan numbers that be have been assigned to their loans. That is an important step. But were hearing that some banks are waiting on further guidance from the sba and treasury about how to get these funds out the door when it comes to dispersement. Which is really important. We did ask the administration about that we were told that they cant comment on what the banks might be looking for so a lot of back and forth here, potentially some finger pointing, but good news today, we did hear from a business that actually got funded. I hope to hear from many more in the days to come kate, thank you for your reporting. As kate said, banks both large and small are getting flooded with applications for loans from the governments Lending Program. And one of those banks is open First Financial. Thats a Regional Bank with a total of 75 branches in new jersey and new york. Chris mar is the chairman and ceo of ocean First Financial thank you so much for being with us today, especially on a day like today when we get the minutes from the fed first, have you been able to get any of the ppp money out the door yet we have so, you know, this is an incredible lip important program. We have been working night and day. And as of today, i can report we have dispersed 3. 7 million worth of loans that protects, you know, in our area, almost 1,600 jobs. And theres a lot more to come from that. We have about 155 closings that well do between now and friday, to give you some sense of the volumes. So its also good to hear from you that youre getting that money out the door, because we know so many people need it is it safe to say that we can also expect the frequency of the money getting out the door to ramp up now that the first has been dispersed and maybe symptoms are in place to make it a more efficient process oh, absolutely. You know, when you think about the scope of this program, to take a 350 billion program, typically, would take years to launch Something Like this and were launching it in just weeks. There have been some bumps in the road, but weve been working hard with the sba, they have been terrific. We have over 550 of those loans approved by the sba for in excess of 650 billion the process is working it was frustrating i understand why folks may have been concerned over the weekend. But the money is going out, into peoples hands and we think its the most important things we can do as a bank in the coming days is to get this program done. Chris, Tyler Mathisen here. A viewer wrote to me yesterday in frustration saying that he had been stymied, in part because the bank he did business with for many years and as he checked other banks were requiring as a stipulation that you have a business Checking Account in order to be able to apply for one of these ppp loans. Are you requiring that have you heard that . Or is any kind of business relationship with the bank sufficient for you in our case, if you have a business relationship with us, were going to work with you the most important thing as part of this program, you can imagine, weve got to make sure that there are no kind of fraudulent cases to get through. Its being rolled out very quickly. There are a lot of dollars at stake so the identification of our customers is really important. If you dont have a business Checking Account, it makes it a little bit more challenging for us to identify you and get through our antimoney laundering rules, our Bank Secrecy Act rules, but there are ways we can get through it it just may take longer. So if i have a personal if i have excuse me, rahel i want to followup. If i have a longtime relationship with you as a banker, whether its a personal Checking Account or a money making account, you can figure out a way to make it work, but the business Checking Account might be easier. It comes down to documenting the business skpunsing, where was the business filed, who were the signers on the corporation its extra steps we have to go through. Ultimately, we will open a business Checking Account. And with treasury putting more money into this, i think well have the time to do that and chris, before we let you go, we did hear from the fed earlier in those minutes that they are alarmed at the disruption to the economy. Im certainly hearing it from workers on the front lines, but youre speaking to these Small Business owners. What exactly are you hearing oh, the disruption is incredible ill give youve one thing to really focus on. The number two, so the second highest request for these ppp loans in our case is Health Care Businesses so doctors, radiology labs, things like that and that may not make sense on the surface, but just think about, weve had to empty our hospitals, put off elective procedures, so theres a whole supply chain in health care. You know, the folks we need the most right now they need cash flow so they can keep putting people out in the field. So the disruption is pretty significant, but this program is going to help. We certainly hope so. Chris mar from ocean first with 3. 7 million out the door. Tyler, ill send it over to you. Thanks, rahel still ahead, oil spiking after todays plunge, as u. S. Production drops we will bring you the latest details as we head into the close for petroleum. Plus, the Housing Market under pressure as americans struggle to pay their mortgages and the economy spirals downward into probable recession tariq el mousa from hgtv will be here to discuss the fallout. We have a lot more power lunch after this quick break i know that every single time that i suit up, there is a chance that thats the last time. 300 miles an hour, thats where i feel normal. I might be crazy but im not stupid. Having an annuity tells me that im protected. During turbulent times, consider protected Lifetime Income from an annuity as part of your Retirement Plan. This can help you cover your essential monthly expenses. Learn more at protectedincome. Org. I am totally blind. And non24 can make me show up too early. Or too late. Or make me feel like im not really there. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442342424. Welcome back to power lunch, everyone lets get a check on the markets. Stocks are at session highs. The dow is up almost 3 or 660 points the s p, almost 3 or 76 points. And the nasdaq up about 2. 25 or 175 points this is all coming on the back of a big spike in oil crude right now. Last i checked, they were up about 7 to 8 . Were going to hear more from Brian Sullivan in just a moment. You can see wti, the u. S. Benchmark is up about 6. 4 , now settling at about 2513 per barrel again, well talk to Brian Sullivan shortly and hell talk a lot more about why were seeing this bounce in crude. Stocks look like theyre at session highs. Tyler, ill send it over to you. Rahel, thank you very much. Lets get to sue herrera for the last on the coronavirus. Sue . Thank you so much, ty good afternoon, everyone new jersey has become the first state to require the wearing of face coverings in stores Governor Phil Murphy also ordering a halt to nonessential construction and a delay of that states primary until july 7th in new york, Governor Andrew Cuomo says statewide restrictions are beginning to flatten the curve. Still, new york is now reporting more cases than spain, the country with the highest number of infections behind the u. S new york is also reporting a record 779 deaths since yesterday. Governor cuomo compares it to another new york tragedy i remember the number of funerals after 9 11. I remember the grief after 9 11. That this should literally eclipse that in terms of numbers of dead, in this state, its, its almost unimaginable to me in northern virginia, vehicles lining up by the dozens outside a Food Distribution site the Salvation Army center is offering curbside, nocontact pickup for eligible families you are up to date and as always, if you want more on our coronavirus coverage here at cnbc, just go to cnbc. Com ty, back to you. Sue, thank you very much. Well, as rahel just mentioned, crude is soaring right now, as we head into the close, lets bring in Brian Sullivan for the details hi, bri. I heard rahel set me up saying, brians going to come on and tell you whats going on no, hes not i have no idea whats going on heres the thohonest truth everybody i talked to said it was a contract roll. You had some hedges, hedge funds. You had all of these sort of market tlechnical wonky things that sent it down. Its likely thats happening now on the reverse side. There are some headlines, but i dont think theyre groundbreaking, guys i mean, algeria basically is out saying that opec plus, which has their Virtual Meeting tomorrow, should be able to get the 10 million barrel a day cut deal done does that include 10 million with the United States or without the United States . Thats ultimately the question if the move is fundamental, its because the market believes that its opec plus ten and the u. S. Would add on a few more. But demand is down 25 to 30 Million Barrels a day. If we goat a 10 to 12 million barrel a day cut equivalent, youre still looking at one third, but at least it slows the pain, ty iuorio a moment ago said the same thing im thinking. Ive been sitting on the same tank of gas for three weeks now and normally i fill up every third day just from commuting and i know you have a longer commute than i do. What are the odds that this deal between russia and the saudis actually comes to pass it probably will. Its going to have to. Everybody knows this the government revenues from these nations are just collapsing, okay the u. S. Has a vibrant economy it still does and it will again, okay russia is still fairly much a hydrocarbon, petro dollar nation saudi arabia obviously is. They need the revenues its not just them, its uae, kuwait, you name it. They have high social costs, right . So theyre going to need to do something. Whats amazing to me, tyler, is that were talking about a 10 million barrel a day cut and the price of oil is under 26. I know youve been doing this a long time, buddy if we talk about a 1 million barrel a day cut, that used to move the price of oil. The u. S. , of course, going to roll over, probably 1. 5 to 2 Million Barrels a day through the end of the year, by natural attrition, cutting Capital Spending costs, et cetera. And by the way, you mentioned the commute, okay. You know i drive that jeep wrangler, gets about 3 gallons to the mile. So i havent been to a gas station either heres an amazing story. Whats called the rack rate of gas. If you went to mathisen gas station and were to buy gasoline, you can get gasoline on the wholesale level right now in parts of the upper midwest for a dime a gallon. Wow ten cents a gallon. Wow theyre selling gas retail gasoline in parts of wisconsin is at 90 to 95 cents a gallon, because they basically need people to take it away make it so cheap that maybe youll just drive in circles by the way brian, thanks very much thatll burn some fuel yeah, that will do it and im thinking about doing the same with my young fellow, as well brian, thanks very much. Rahel . Take care and i think you sell yourself short. You know more than you think you. And with restaurants and schools shuttered, farms are facing an excess of crops and looking for alternative outlets for their produce. Jane wells joins us now with a look at supply chain challenges. Hi, jane reporter hi, rahel way behind me, you can see them, the tens of thousands of farm workers fanning out here in the west coast, because its berry season but from coast to coast and in between, all kinds of challenges to the food supply yeah, the supply chain is pretty messed up right now sorin bjorn runs driscolls, which is a more than 3 billion a year operation hes lost his Food Service Business and Grocery Stores have not been able to pick up all the slack. So we see a lot of shelves that are sort of partially empty. We see a lot of trucks that are getting backed up. Its not uncommon for us to get pushed back two or three days on our deliveries weve all had to change the way we do business on the east coast, titan pharmacy needs 750 important workers on h2a visas, it has 500 and as the government paused, it is allowing previous or former visa holders in. Social distancing in the packing shed, a lot harder than it is in the field, thats one issue. But do we even need Foreign Workers if u. S. Unemployment spikes you know, here in south carolina, basically, you can go on unemployment and make 900 a week its going to be very difficult to tract them to come out and work on the farms, even though were paying almost 12 an hour, which is very good pay when you consider the state minimum wage and the federal minimum wage is 7. 25. Reporter and finally, not a single farmer has said a single farm worker has reported sick yet. Guys, back to you. Jane, thank you very much jane wells in california coming up, the mortgage mess is getting even messier, as a regulator says there wont be any help for the servicers that are getting slammed by payment delay requests those details are next and amazon suspending its Third Party Delivery service to help relieve some of its own delivery delay woes what it means for the industry overall and your packages, straight ahead and remember, you can always watch or listen to us live on the cnbc app well be right back. Our special breaking News Coverage returns after this. When you look at the Critical Issues facing our world, what do you see . We see breakthrough medicines getting to patients in record time. We see harnessing natural gas unleashing the promise of clean energy. We see engineers simulating the future to improve today. At emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. Wont be a new thing. And it wont be their First Experience with social distancing. Overcoming challenges is what defines the military community. Usaa has been standing with them, for nearly a hundred years. And well be here to serve for a hundred more. laughter play pop music no way, dude play rock music no matter what music you like stream it now on pandora with xfinity. And dont forget to catch Trolls World Tour at home on demand friday. Welcome back, everyone lets get a check on the markets right now. Stocks are still at session highs right now. The dow is up nearly 700 points and we can see that oil is surging as it looks like opec will reach a deal to cut production theyre expected to host a virtual deal tomorrow. Also, the fed releasing minutes from the march meeting, sounding the alarm over the impact of the cyrus and the markets and the economy as they expand their market intervention. And were also just now getting reports from afp out of france that president macron will extend the countrys lockdown past april 15th. Back here stateside,lets talk about the mortgage mess the industry firing back neow a a regulator who refuses to hit servicers getting hit with forbearance requests diana olick joins us now with that story Mortgage Servicers are being slammed by homeowner requests to delay their monthly mortgage payments and servicers are begging the government for cash, because they still need to pay those payments to bond holders close to 2 million borrowers have already been granted that forbearance under the federal bailout, far more than fha director mark colabria predicted. Although hes now upping the rhetoric saying that Mortgage Servicers do not need any help for at least a year. Its a turnaround from what he said here on cnbc last week, in that they might need help in two weeks. He told the wall street journal that the industry cries for help were, quote, spin so the ceo of the Mortgage Bankers association fired back overnight. The fhfa directors recent statements send a troubling message to borrowers, lenders, and the market director callabria should advocate for the creation of a liquidity facility at the fed to ensure the stability of the Housing Finance market now, lenders, brokers, and Real Estate Agents are all saying that the disruption in the Mortgage Market is already making it harder for consumers to get either a new mortgage or a refinance. Back to you guys diana, thanks very much the coronavirus is hitting every aspect of the Housing Market skmand hitting it hard. Joining us now is Tarek El Moussa i assume flipping right now is just not happening i mean, it is happening, its just a lot more challenging. Like, right now, when it comes to the economy, it comes to the Banking Industry, when it comes to real estate, it just feels like the perfect storm but how is flipping happening . I mean, are you going out and looking at properties . Were still actively running the business obviously, were very selective on what we buy, but its california, we are essential, were still selling houses were a little bit slower, but still moving property. If im thinking of putting my house on the market, should i just wait . I wish i had that crystal ball, but if i were a homeowner now waiting to sell my house, i would wait a few weeks to see what happens its hard to say where were going to be at in a month, two months, six months, but i feel like we are headed into a down cycle, and if someone is looking to cash out and get the most amount of money possible, i do believe the sooner the better. Tharek, if your house is already on the market, what are you seeing are they doing virtual open houses, is that successful and if youre a buyer and willing to go out to actual open houses, whats the opportunity for you i mean, right now, if youre a buyer, this is your opportunity to try to get a deal, because there are sellers out there that have to sell right now. Whether theyre going through divorce, whether they got laid off, people have to sell so as a buyer, its a really good time to pick up a deal. As a seller, if you need to sell, there are still buyers, but its tough, because people arent leaving their houses, the Banking Industry is changing guidelines so buyers arent qualifying its just a mess right now so if im a buyer, should i feel good going out there and taking advantage of someones distress at a time like this thats an interesting question whatever they paid today, its probably more than they would have paid two years ago, so its still a good deal for the seller so let me ask you another question go ahead, rahel. You know, that rarek, i was wondering, what does your Risk Appetite have to be like, if our buying in this market, you certainly dont have anymore certainty than the person whos selling. How long should you be prepared to hold on to this before you can possibly make a profit you know, every deal im looking into, im looking at an exit strategy. If i dont feel i can get out of that property within five months with a hefty profit, i wont do the deal five months from now, the hefty profit that theres today may not be there tomorrow, so i have to be very careful in what abi buy. You said earlier, you said we think were in for a bit of a downturn in housing. Job instability and unemployment are the enemies of a robust Housing Market is that why you think the market is going to go into a downward phase . And how long do you expect it will last . I mean, its a combination of things weve been in an appreciating real estate cycle since 2010 we are in 2020 so with or without coronavirus, it is time for the Real Estate Market to change, in my professional opinion so i do feel coronavirus is putting fuel on the fire you know, people are losing their jobs, theyre not going to qualify for loans, banks are changing their guidelines, people arent getting in cars to look at houses, sellers that need to sell have to take less money. Its like everything that can cause the market to go down is happening all at the same time but at the same time, i do feel once the coronavirus starts slowing down or the bad news starts going away, i do think were going to have a surge in the market, because a lot of people are sitting on the sidelines. So its going to be really tricky what happens the next couple of months you bet it is tarek, thank you very much always good to see you, Tarek El Moussa rahel . Tyler, thank you. Still ahead, with millions of americans filing for unemployment, the state systems are being stressed well have a look at the structural problems coming up in a live rept,ex because theyre here. Working day in, day out. At t is here. Providing support with advanced services for first responders. And connected temporary hospitals, mobile testing sites and Emergency Management centers. Because until their job is done, it is essential that we all have their backs. Its what weve always done. 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Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. Welcome back, everyone investors should embrace for another astronomical jobless claims number tomorrow when the Labor Department releases numbers for the past week, the consensus is 5 Million People applying for benefits, and thats on top of the 6. 6 million last week, and more than 3 million the week before. And all of this is stressing state unemployment funds to the max, some more than others scott cohn joins us live with that story hi, scott. Hi, rahel basically, the way this works is every state keeps its Unemployment Insurance trust fund in an account with the Treasury Department and its up to the states to keep that account funded, such that it can handle a recession well, even going into this, a number of states were on the brink of insolvency. We know this because just in february, just before everything blew up, the Labor Department came out with its latest report on the status of these funds and it is not pretty take a look. 22 states, nearly half, fell below the federal standard for solvency, which essentially is the ability to pay benefits in a typical recessionary year. Each of the states in yellow there that has less than a years worth of benefits in reserve and in a handful of states, its even worse each of the states in red has less than six months, and these include some of the biggest states six months or so in connecticut, five in illinois, massachusetts, and ohio, four months in new york and texas, and about ten weeks here in california again, thats based on an average recession. Christopher oleary, an economist with the up John Institute tells me all but a hand ofl states will exhaust their reserves entirely the way things are going if we continue at this pace, and thats even after the federal stimulus, which basically has the feds paying for the expansion of Unemployment Benefits and also makes it easier for states to borrow from the treasury so this is one of those situations, guys, that is going to live beyond this pandemic its a big deal for the states so, scott, what happens as these states start to run through those reserves im talking to a lot of workers across the country who are wondering why their applications arent being processed quickly of course, officials want to maintain the integrity of the program, but is part of the answer is that they also dont have a lot to begin with what happens now what will happen is that the states will have to borrow and thats been the case, thats been going on for a while. And again, all of these numbers that i quoted you are based on the standard which is being able to pay benefits for the average of the three worst years of the last 20 years. This year is something clearly different entirely, if things continue to go at this pace. So all of the states will have to do something in terms of borrowing, likely from the treasury, but its going to put a huge strain on state and federal finances all right scott cohn, thank you so much for that story of course, we will see how that plays out each week as we get unemployment claims. Tyler . Thank you, rahel. We are at or very close to the highs of the session the dow getting very close to become up 700 points, now up about 650 following the feds release of the march minutes not too much new news there. Oil has been surging thats news today. And well have more on that in just a minute. Plus, shares of fedex and u. P. S. Are moving up after amazon suspended its Third Party Delivery service theyll still deliver their packages, but not other other ps whats behind that move and whether that helps eliminate at nels thman. Azo thsext. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Amazon is suspending thirdparty delivery service, ending competition with u. P. S. And fedex for time being we have a look behind the move and the impact on the industry frank . Shares of u. P. S. And fedex both are trading higher after amazon announced it will suspend its competing delivery service, call it amazon shippings, starting in june the decision is to help amazon hand that will large le that la orders because of the covid19 outbreak it slowed prime service from two days to in some cases many weeks, three or four, for nonessential items the company says its focus is to deliver a higher priority items to our customers this has resulted in some of our promises being longer than usual. Theyve hired 100,000 new employees to meet demand amazon smiping in the u. S. Started in 2018, delivering to consumers without those product being stored in amazon warehouses shipping was just being tested in los angeles and a few select cities and is a small part of amazons business, but certainly could be viewed as part of amazons growing ambitions to not only be an ecommerce site but also a shipper the question remains will they ramp it up after the outbreak ends or discontinue it all together back to you. Trajectorfrank, thank you still ahead. Look at this stock up 20 in the past weeks as salons and spas are shuttered. Why the gains could be for good coming up next and tune in to squawk box tomorrow at 6 00 p. M well speak with billionaire bill gates we are still at highs of the session and stocks surging as oil jumps on hopes of production cuts tyler, nice to see stocks at session highs after its been a volatile week. Stocks surged on monday, pulled back yesterday, up again hopefully that holds well, you know, i think it comes on hope that perhaps the curve is flattening despite Record Number of deaths reported by Governor Cuomo today in new york and new york city new york is now alone the second largest the largest, excuse me, no longer the second largest, eclipsing even spain, an entire country. We began the hour with the fed minutes from that extraordinary meeting of three weeks ago i guess the news there to no ones surprise is that the fed intends to keep Interest Rates at the zero to quarter of a point level for as long as the effects of this sort of selfinduced coma on the economy persists so you can expect low Interest Rates and the fed continuing to deploy all the tonnage from its toolbox that it has. Tyler, lets get some more analysis now lets bring in jim yurio to speak more and give us analysis on the markets today hi, jim. Thank you very much tell us, whats your opinion on sort of the minutes weve heard from the fed as tyler said, they deecve dona lot but have more they can do and looks like they may be willing and primed to do it. Didnt we know that already you know what i mean not just the feds Global Financial banks are doing kind of the same thing with everything i think some of that money ends up in the u. S. Stock market. I think thats what the stock market is telling us now with this last little rally are they preparing for worst case yes, it seems like everybody is. I think things could change quickly in the next ten days the market is just really happy right now about some of the things its seen coming out of new york, particular lly the weekend. If that changes, this could all change but right now everybody is riding the high i dont want to throw you a question out of left field, but before we went to break, we showed alta, about 20 up. So many more people are on zoom and doing video conferences and you cant go to the hair salon and cant get your makeup done a lot of people are using services and have to shop online because the stores arent open are you seeing any winners or losers you know, i think that when people talked about everyone going into quarantine, this natural thought was that everything gets shut down. Well, everythings not getting shut down. Im not saying 80 to 90 of that is true, but there are still some things that have come out good i havent looked at alta specifically or made a purchase, but i do own amazon. If theres ever a time we think about that, you know, this is the time to do it. So i mean, all is not lost in my opinion, and there should be some bright spots, and i find that interesting jim, let me follow up with one final question we are up now more than 20 off the lows that would technically be, technically be a bull market were not in a bull market, are we you dont want to call it a bull market. No, were not in a bull market this could i dont think it is i think theres thing thats interesting thats happening here i think that within the next couple weeks the market is telling me it believes in the optimistic case. Im going to side with that and not have my own opinion, but you could easily call this a bear market when you look at the biggest got to jump in. Moving in the stock market, most of them occur within the context of a bear market rally this could easily be that. Im encouraged by it but for someone to call it a bull market, i dont think so. And dont think i did the struck has struck 3 00 jim, thank you very much rachel, great to spend the hour with you the closing bell begins now. Tyler, thank you. Welcome, everyone. I am sara eisen here