Tonight. We have got guy adami and we have tim seymour and steve grasso and brinmar trust jeff mills. Guy, were up 770 points on the dow and we have oil spiking, as well and banks participated and a lot of different sectors participated in this mini run or mini rally and whatever you want to call it is it because of fed help . Is it because some of these coronavirus numbers came down, giving us a reason for optimism or was it Something Else yeah. Typically its all of the above and ill have to reposition my camera in a second and i apologize if the shot is lose pep yesterday made sense to me in the way the market traded up and failed at the levels that we talked about it didnt make sense to me, but to your point, i think the howard marx article helped and the fact that Bernie Sanders dropped out helped and i think the dr. Fauci comments helped and its an amalgamation of a lot of things that are positive and i understand the reasons for optimism my concern is even with the market currently where we are at alltime highs with s p 3393, assuming 160 100 earnings and no way were coming off of 160 and taking 20 off of that and here we are trading 21 times in my book, all the markets really done is recalibrate and were at the market spectrum thatty woo should sell off from. With our viewers that arent familiar with the howard marx comments coming out with a note saying hes an optimist. Hes buying in the market because were all dealing, tim seymour, we all know the past. None of us know the future, but marx remains optimistic and perhaps that giving a boost to the market, as well, to guys point. And marx who is very cautious, just a couple of months ago and the high remarks is certainly a Market Participant and a thought leader that we should listen to everything were seeing and the pain trade remains higher and i know everyone says bear markets dont end like this and im not saying that this is the end of a bear market. Ill also just say that people think that december 2018, i think, that was a bear market and we had strategists come on our show and say there was a bear market. Theres an enormous fed and fiscal response and we know there are two phases of analysis here and one of them is the horrible virus and the Global Destruction and the Health Crisis and as you said and as we say every day because we have to recap this this is part of the story and then its about looking to the other side and when you look at a day like today when banks which are now almost 30 off the lows if you measure by the xlf and some banks significantly more and if you look at small cap stocks and if you look at transports that led the market and really led the market over the last few days, thats a sense the market is telling you that Economic Sensitivity is not as significant as people had told you it was going to be, but we still dont have any real data, every economist worth their salt is pointing to anywhere from 10 to 20 to q gdp contraction and well have a terrible jobless claims number tomorrow and yet the market perseveres higher because i think equity allocations are still under weight here. Heres my negative spin because i tend to be somewhat constructive here. I dont think you have to chase anything here. I do think that valuations are and we talk about it all of the time if you look at s p earnings and whats expensive and whats cheap especially when rates are at zero. Steve grasso. Tim makes a lot of good points and you look at data points like tomorrow mornings jobless number lets be honest, its going to be terrible and whatever the number is, it will be too many we know that, but what we also know is some of the macro data that we really care about, the number of beds needed and the number of likely people that pass away from this, those numbers have come down considerably, considerably over just the last 48 hours is that whats been powering the market so, brian, i would say the way you open up the show, i would say 100 of this or very close to 100 of this will be dictated by corona numbers and there will be fundamentals and economics and that time is probably two months away, so if you look at the way things are now theres a basket of companies that will be around in three years. Theres a basket of companies that are going to need a lot of aid. This is unprecedented check writing by the government. Nothing is going to fail theyve made it abundantly clear that no company, no person is going to fail. So in my mind, we need to weather through approximately 30 days and when you start to think about retesting the lows which is where i thought we were going to be last week, that time right now is sort of mitigated beds, everything that you just named when you heard cuomo talking about cresting and topping out, thats a huge event. So we were all prepared for the very worst, and i dont think were going to get the very worst and thats yet markets rallied. Yeah. Some of the ihme estimates which are out of the university of washington are lower than the flu rate of 2018 and theres been some positive data. Jeff mills, i want to throw this out there. This is pretty interesting march 11th will go down when this whole thing gets written as the day that they stopped an nba game, thats the day that everything and everybody realized how serious this was, heres a year to date chart of the s p 500. We are back to premarch 11th levels the entire last month of insane volatility has now been reversed does that mean anything or is that just an interesting stat . I think it is just an interesting stat and i think it means that we were probably oversold and the rubber band is overstretched and were on the optimism that steve was talking about and we have to be careful about connecting some of the optimism around the Health Crisis with directly when and how the economy is going to open back up because i think ultimately that will be really important and i want to go back to something that guy said related to where the market is trading. Credit spreads, they recovered a little bit, but they have not endorsed the equity rally to the extent that i would like them to i like the correlation between credit spreads and equity market valuations the last time that i was on the show. Where credit spreads are today that would be consistent with 14 times s p 500 to use guys 160 is probably pretty optimistic and that would leave us closer to the lows than to where we are today, so i think theres still room to move around and lets not forget, two days ago, we were up 3. 5 and we ended the day down since 1980 and im not trying to make a direct connection between now and 2008, but i do think it underscores the fact that the market is still on unstable footing and i think volatility to the down side is still more likely than an unabated path higher. Okay. Yeah, but to follow up very quickly before we bring in our guest, jeff, i will say, we are seeing the bond market come back and there have been bond issuances and hess oil selling bonds last week. Ive heard from people at the credit markets are doing okay, but if you put to guys point, 10 trillion at a problem, you hope to have a positive outcome. Lets bring in another voice on this conversation in and bring in Margaret Reed of union bank out of san fran know if. Margaret, a pleasure to have you on fast money. Your clients, i would imagine, their mood today is different than it was a week or two ago or are they still have that sort of heightened level of nervousness . Hi, brian thank you for having me on the panel, as well we continue to have concerns out here in california with the shelter in place, particularly those clients of ours that are real estateoriented investors, but also on the equity market side, too, because we are living and breathing this stay at home recession and seeing whats happening to the Consumer Base and seeing whats happening to our business base. So i would say theres a tremendous amount of caution, but a little bit hopefulness, you know, out of the data point out of the last few weeks coming out of the crisis, on the crisis front. Especially where you guys are out west youve had maybe glimmers of hope, for us here on the east coast because you had it worse first, but its come down, are your clients pressuring you to sell are you recommending that we sell do we think that we have made maybe a medium or shortterm market bottom or could there be more pain to come, margaret . Brian, at this juncture were inclined to recognize these various phases that we all have in the market and the economy in this unprecedented Health Crisis and recession at hand here we had the first phase, february to early march, that was the fastest pricing in of any crisis or recession layered on by the shock and phase two, call it, was the absorption of the monetary fiscal policies and in response of the liquidity constraints and to carry the economy can be carried during the crisis and recession lets call it third phase right now. I would take a breath phase where were seeing advance amen in the vaccine testing front were seeing growth rates in cases and some hot spots across some of the country, and not all of the country, but we would caution that were in front of still a rolling breakout we havent seen sizeable breakouts in Middle America on the covid19 virus and were in front of the onslaught of considerable negative economic headlines. I agree, the claims number tomorrow is going to be very difficult and challenging to see the headline we will continue to get companies at guidance, so i would say on the balance of where the markets stand today we would be more cautionary just because we dont view this as kind of the end the end of the Market Correction here yeah. I think it was moderna today said human trials on a potential candidate for vaccine will be in midmay. The speed at which the private sector is working and its truly remarkable and great to see. Let me wrap it up with this, though, margaret if corporate earnings, we know, first off their Rearview Mirror and guidance will matter to a point. The Economic Data will be all over the map im not saying we throw it away, but take it with a grain of salt so let me ask you directly, what is the one or two most important data points that you and your team at union bank are going to be watching for over the next days or weeks as it pertains to the equity and bond markets . First, id say watching the consumer, watching now they continue to respond to this crisis is responding and providing the necessary bridge also watching the credit markets. Its just very important that the credit markets continue to recover from this last month and there is consistency of the operation of the Capital Markets at large, but it is very much an ever and the data points coming in and it is very critical to emphasize managing risk and managing diversified portfolios at this juncture. Margaret reid of union bank out west best to you, and we look forward to having you in person on the east coast sooner rather than later. Thank you very much. You know, tim, we talk about the signposts and what about the transports the transports which are supposed to be a leading indicator, theyre not looking too bad lately theyre a major leading indicator going interest recession and you could argue that the transports, boy, you could have played the market perfectly in nine to 12 months in advance of the pullback the stock im actually long and a bunch of the shippers. If you look at c. H. Robinson and that to me is a stock thats rallying ahead of nine months and these are places where market Tactical Forces tell you you can actually be buying them if you have some sense on the depth of the recession i do think thats important. Other signposts have to at least be on some level measuring economies around the world nah ha that have gotten through this and they were almost flat for march and their economy wasnt as shut down as others these arent things to necessarily impute totally on the u. S. Economy, even though normal is not what normal may number six months. Who knows what normal means nowadays well said, tim seymour. Lets get the latest with rahel solomon. There could be new snaps for the governments ppe program according to people familiar with the matter that the countrys two largest bank, j. P. Morgan chase and bank of america had a combined 625,000 requests for loans and 80 billion in loans as of tuesday and only a small fraction of that has been processed and paid out so far. We heard from kate rogers, our Small Business reporter that shes hearing from some of her Small Business sources that theyre just now getting the application processed and we spoke to the ceo of a bank on power lunch who said just today he was able to get money out the door and according to cnbc. Com saying the two largest bank, j. P. Morgan chase and bank of america saying theyve been able to disperse a small fraction of what has been created to help provide relief for Small Businesses so thats the update now its a Large Program its still very early in the process, but again, more snags for that program weve been hearing about that all week, brian, back and forth reporting from Kayla Tausche and reporting from aaron rodgers, but more snaps on the program. The ceo of t. G. I. Fridays, and well ask him what he needs to get back on his feet and mick sure h make sure his employees are taken care of. A lot to cover through we have another special markets in turmoil at 7 cocke p. M. Eastern time. Coming up on fast money. Call it the tech triple way. We havent forgotten the core mission, call it netflix, apple and twitter. Youve got to hear them. Plus what industries should get government aid or the most government aid we cant say all, but we have a survey Steve Liesman has the answerfoyos r u on that as fast money returns right after this. Shouldnt you pay less when you use less data . Now you can. Because Xfinity Mobile gives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 200 off when you buy an eligible phone. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinitymobile. Com today. Welcome back to cnbc coverage of the markets in turmoil. We have not forgotten the core mission on fast money. You can also have time to dive in to some of the calls on the names that you care about and we assume that you probably care about some of these Big Technology stocks that weve been talk about for the better part of five years all right. Lets start off now with a call from bank of America Securities on Netflix Steve grasso, im going to go with you on this, and heres the wording and you forgive me for reading them, flying blind people are engaging and i. E. , staying home and they call it a low price point. They like the model and theyre bullish on netflix and your take on the b of a call i would agree with them im bullish on netflix, too. The problem is once we start to see the corona deaths start to level off and hopefully this thing gets better for everyone involved and all of these were corona plays and youll start to see these roll off and youll get a chance to buy these stocks lower and i would wait to see if it holds that 341 level which is the 100day moving average, and brian, also theyre not filming and theyre not spending a lot of money now because they cant produce. So thats been the headwind for the stock. So i wonder i havent heard many people talk about this, we all know about the competition what we dont know is how much money is staying inside of netflix. Its not a spending days anymore at netflix because he cant film maybe that helps and thats a tailwind and ultimately, wait on this one before you put new money to work. Okay. So grasso, tim, appears to disagree with the bank of america call and the question, of course, is churn and how many people will sign up now and when we be able to reemerge and does netflix have what it takes and the movie mojo, if you will, to keep people around this was a stock that people owned for defensive qualities because of the stay at home nature of the business netflix and chill or whatever else goes on but to me, this is not a stock that on valuation makes sense in the environment and the stock market, but in the competitive landscape, the piper note talked about the mine share of the teens and folks that are the most active consumers of netflix, but it also points out that disney has stake in market share. Disney plus has only been out there for two or three months and is already at a 7 of market share. I think netflix is not only a stock that gets away on the upside and its artificially defensive and the stock to own at the start of the crisis and i would be a seller and im short the stock. Okay. Short netflix. There you go tim, thank you very much lets move on to call number two, and its actually two analyst notes on the same name and that is apple and heres the basic headline and j. P. Morgan chase cutting it from 350 to 335, and piper raising their target and only to 300 and pipers rays is still below where j. P. Morgan chase was, but heres the thing j. P. Morgan saying theyll cut their estimates for iphone sales by more than half and they remain on the stock. Can you square these things. Do you agree with either of these call sfls. I think you have to look at iphone sales in terms of the companys prospects. 85 of the 5200 teens that they surveyed said they are not that is really important and this continues to be a powerful brand and i think that carries the day in terms of the longterm prospects of the stock. If you look at iphone sales for all of this, and better sales for iphone 11 than was anticipated and if you look at diversifying into other businesses whether its finance with apple pay, healthcare and wearables, but there was room there for the couples to grow, and look, the multiple at nine times is still higher than typical, but certainly not 19 times versus where we were a week ago for me its a stock you can earn in the long term even if you see sales because you will see disruptions from store closures and supply chain issues and from the longer term perspective i still think the story is still very much intact isnt that amazing . The stats and if you missed it ill reiterate it because its tremendous