I also have a great guest for you, michael kolanovic, j. P. Morgan, he thinks the bottom is in and hell be here to explain why and well talk about what hes seeing and why hes studying coronavirus trends around the world to try to understand the stock market, netflix made a new high. Bed, bath and beyond, that stock is up a little bit after hours and its down about 80 over the past year. We got a triple whammy we have to start with the market bad data on retail and oil falling to 20year lows and the banks continue to drop on their earnings concern guy adami, of those three because i would argue and i didnt think data mattered at all, of those three which one matters the most to you . I think the fact that oil cant get out of its own way out of those three the way that banks have traded, we can talk about that, but the way the data we knew would be miserable and maybe its worse than a lot of people thought and the bloviating and the noise, it cant get out of its own way and the rally lasted a couple of days its somehow concerning and given all those three things and given the run the Broader Market has had, i dont think today was all that bad you know that i think the market will pause here and head back lower and given all of the things you just mentioned it could have been worse, so you have to take, theres some Silver Lining on the back of that, i would think. Yeah. I dont know who was surprised by oil the tanks are nearly full and citibank putting out notes saying we could be out of storage and we could have much lower prices at leasting for the current month contract, but with all due respect to the show and the production i dont know if those three things are nufr. Germany is going to kind of start to slowly reopen its economy on monday. Are we not paying enough attention to some of the coronavirusrelated information . Think we are, brian i think the market is now trying to sort through the macro and the coronavirus. Look, on other day, and todays data, first of all, retail sales would have been how about the days we shrugged off 6. 5 million jobless claims or unemployment numbers that were catastrophic or some of the other data so retail sales shouldnt matter and neither should the index which was a joke and thats worse than the coaster so if you think about today. Germany announces that theyre going to start opening their economy on monday. If we did this two weeks ago this would be the headline and it would have been up 3 or 4 so i think the market is a little exhausted here. I dont think you have to read so much into some of todays price action it opened a lot worse and if you look at names that have been outperforming and names that people want to own, theres a lot of names across the s p and certainly across the nasdaq 100 that are up on the year. So i think todays macro was horrendous, in line with macro that people said didnt matter on other days so why should it matter today and it didnt seem to, dan nathan and you guys have been concerned. One day does not a trend make, but at the same time the markets internally and some of these indexes we talked about they looked very weak again today yeah. One of them would be the russell 2000 small caps and ive said it a few times over the last few weeks. That, to me, is probably a far better indication of just the Immediate Impact to u. S. Businesses when you think about their leverage, you think about what makes up the russell 2000 and the heavily exposed to financials and much weaker Financial Institutions than the ones that are reporting earnings this week which have been disappointing. Weve seen what the xlf has done this week alone and thats made the Major Money Center Banks so when you think of the russell 2000 down 30 from the recent highs i think that might be telling you a bit more of the story. I dont love to hear the term that data doesnt matter whats really important is as much visibility as you can get every piece of data matters. Every piece of data relative to other data and the Historical Data so keep consuming it. Keep coming up with adjectives about it it will help you figure out whats going and it will be helpful with the sentiment in the market so while the 5 to 10 moves have abated in the major indices, moving around 2 to 3 is still a whole heck of a lot. We need to find the next trend and it will only come with the data okay, fair enough dan might disagree with my tweet then, karen, but as a fund manager yourself are you spending more of your time right now looking at marketrelated data or are you spending more of your time related to coronavirus i know most of my day seems to be spent looking at Johns Hopkins websites trying to understand trends of where we may be in a couple of weeks. How about you . I mean, i agree with that thats data that i really want to of course, coronavirus, but im sort of in the last few days of okay. We accept that were getting to the top of the mountain and going down the other side now and so we turn our attention to can we open up the economy and how is that going to look, and i think that we dont know what thats going to look like. I am very skeptical about this vshaped recovery, and i feel like the market has really fully priced in a strong v shape and im skeptical that that will come to pass so for me what i look at is Balance Sheets first who can make it to the other side who can survive and what kind of businesses wont be forever changed . So thats the kind of stuff im looking at i agree with guy and tim they didnt think the market was so bad today at all given the run that weve had, i thought it was and i actually think the Bank Earnings have not been bad. Theyve been okay. They just dont know what this quarters going to be like and thats the data, when dan talks about data and the data we want to see is what does main street and what does the economy look like in this quarter that were in because thats when we really start to feel the effects of whats happened. Yeah. Because so many stores shut down in march or will beshut down and bed, bath beyond and the stores are shut and im not sure what numbers those will tell us and lets bring in another voice and that is Marko Kolanovic and were glad to have you back on the program, the macro Strategy Global head. Looking at your notes and mentioning the coronavirus data, Johns Hopkins data is the new jobs number in a certain way for me, anyway, looking at this data what are you looking at most closely to try to figure out what is possibly an impossible situation to figure out. As you mentioned the virus data is now key. When it comes to normal times are very important, but right now it is basically closed so we know that this data will be abysmal so the question is can they jumpstart when the virus subsides and when we open the economy and for that you need to know when will you be able to do that and for that you look at the virus data or retail sales. We know there are zero if people are locked in their homes by the order of government. So virus data, we started looking at the sort of big data, actually smart thermometers about four weeks ago, was there a provider of smart thermometers and establishing daily which is pretty much in real time, influenzalike symptoms across the u. S. So we looked at the data first, and we saw early on that disease is spreading and as soon as the measures for social distancing are announced, this typical influenza increase we could not recovery of people and the cases of two weeks serious cases and three to five weeks, and we saw that its better and obviously, you want to market yourself with new York State Press conferences in the morning, late morning and you want to basically see net hospitalization. You want to see a few other data point, obviously fatalities which do lag and also intubation so our model is contracting to new york state data and we were already two weeks to go and we thought apex would happen a week ago and we are getting actually now and thats the net hospitalization growth inflexion. I know it sounds convoluted, but thats basically when you start accelerating the pressure in hospital and what happened tom im fascinated and im sorry to jump in, and i need to tie it back to where i am, the stock market, and the equities and the economy. And if its possible to reopen sooner and we think within a week from now and its like what were seeing today in germany and we think were not too far behind and it will be limited and im not talking about im talking baby steps and that tells us that sort of by the summertime we may substantially recover and some time next year, maybe the second half of next year the economy reaches a high watermark which means the market could reach the high watermark next year and thats the time line that we expect. So, marko, thanks for being on its guy a lot of this assumes i would think, that once people feel that were somewhat out of the woods things go back to normal, absolute where we were three or four months ago im hard pressed to come up with a situation or scenario where that takes place were not talking about normal normal. Think of something that will change forever i think some restriction measures and some control measures and for instance, checking the fever i think that will become the new normal you remember september 11th traveling in air before and after we all get used to basically being checked and get name tags in the buildings and our luggage gets searched and were used to some of these things for instance like a Temperature Check and fever check and i think it makes a lot of sense and once we get used to it there will be economic value and it will save tens and hundreds of thousands of lives from flu if we can be more aware when it comes to contagious diseases marko, its dan just to piggyback on what guy said you made your bones in this business being somewhat contrarian here and it seems like the call has been consensus and weve been covering the show this week over just the way strategists have moved the way i see this right now is just weve been hit with a 100year storm and the worst Health Crisis the world has faced in a hundred years and possibly the worst economic crisis the world has faced in a hundred years and look at whats going on with federal debt to gdp all over the world here. You say to yourself, my goodness, theres a lot of headwinds Going Forward and the stock market is the wrong lens to be viewing any success with this crisis. So why stick your neck out with new highs, 3600 by next year when we just dont know whats going to happen here if there are other waves and another lockdowns. If theres another lockdown in 2020 its lights out for the u. S. Economy. 3400, not 36. Look, i think when it comes to the economic crisis, i agree that its the worst its ever happened and its something that was ordered and something that was done and its undone when the conditions are met when it comes to the world Health Crisis in a hundred years and we had many instances, and over the past hundred years and right now, if we are at 133,000 beds globally and keeping in mind it was a multiple and so its a Health Crisis because we dont know much about this virus and were only learning as we go and thats why i feel much worse than it probably is. When it comes to the economic crisis, once we shot to the economy, and the economy goes to zero and thats why i dont think the sort of this is going to be something that we can sit on a Historical Data like 2008 i think this is very different and its very dependent on reopening it quickly which i think will be possible so im a little out of consensus on that one, more optimistic and, look, lets also mention that we do have Unprecedented Demand to fiscal and monetary measures around the globe so we shouldnt neglect that as something that can help bridge this, call it the arrest of this. Hey, marko, its tim so around the horn here ill go back to the data that you and your j. P. Morgan team crunched down and its your data or at least its market data and i applaud the deep breath that you guys took as a team three weeks ago and you looked at Equity Ownership and looked at the marketing position and you were constructive based upon those numbers. So where are we in the market . Because three weeks ago we were at one and a half to two standard deviations below Equity Ownership on a historical basis, and how big has it been in gi give us the market data because thats what you guys do so well. We are xlbs, which we call quarterend month end rebalances the rally going into march 31st were Pension Funds that we estimate are 170 billion of equities so that was an inflow, no doubt, but the hedge fund, if you look at the hedge fund data did not move all that much so hedgefunds are very, very underinvested and the Systematic Strategies that we are basically tracking with the risk parity and ctas and they close a bit short especially now, but theyre still short s p. So positioning is still light and those are people who basically invest based on inverse volatility and theyre very loosely speaking and they are still very much underweight and the positioning is still light and thats also one of the reasons why we are positive here so the only concern will be if the crisis lasts long, Retail Investors and citizens will need to dip into their 401 k so thats the risk if this lasts too long you start depleting 401 k s which can produce some selling, but as to that, if we can get better data, better sentiment and if we can hold the levels here, eventually in the next few weeks you will see you will see inflows from systematic folks which can actually give us the next leg higher so thats also one of the arguments why we think its why we are still positive despite the pretty strong rally in the last few weeks. Marko, its karen let me ask you something can you give us a little more detail on how quickly you think the economy will open and what kind of companies and how far away is it when we have pack said stadiums or people going to concerts again thats a very good question, so i think well start with the baby steps in a weeks time, and the baby step, i mean, you can look at germany and italy and theyre opening limited Clothing Stores and landscaping and some construction businesses and very small mom and top stores and its not big, but it also may help the sentiment packed stadiums and its tough to say its very thoughtful on that one i would be more cautious of cramming people with the same density as before so that one, maybe we were talking late summer or maybe we were tying it to some of the identification programs or treatments, if not and keep in mind the whole world is working on treatment and the whole world is trying to figure out the next steps on vaccine, and they need to comment on something new. So on that side theyll get better and theyre not going to get worse on that side and cramming people in the tight spaces of course, thats going on to be slower and thats when i hope that that sort of stimulus and fiscal and monetary can plug that hole that will last longer than the initial reopening lets not forget, germany is slowly reopening small stores with the physical distancing act and no large gatherings until basically august 31st although there are baby steps, marco kolanovic, we do appreciate that coming up after the break on fast money, we have Bed Bath Beyond and some numbers there and target, as well. Well talk about retail, the consumer and where this market goes and later on in the show, Craig Johnson is very bullish stocks and well get his views as well. Stick around when you look at the Critical Issues facing our world, what do you see . We see breakthrough medicines getting to patients in record time. We see harnessing natural gas unleashing the promise of clean energy. We see engineers simulating the future to improve today. At emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. Shbecause xfinity mobilehen ygives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 200 off when you buy an eligible phone. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinitymobile. Com today. All right welcome back to cnbcs fast money. We showed you bed, bath beyond before the break and the stock up after hours and the majority of the fiscal Quarter Ended before the full shutdown and the majority of their stores are closed so im not sure what date at machines are looking at there, but theres Bed Bath Beyond and lets talk target, they were going to make sure that we can shop the stock bmo upgrading that stock to an outperform at bmo Capital Markets and karen, i imagine that youve got to love that upgrade, and there are analysts out that are saying things will get better yeah. I agree with it and im long the stock and things have gotten better for the costcos and the targets and the walmarts of the world and theyve pulled future sales in the past cup ifl months and i think that target will survive and prove themselves to be a great operator, buy online, pick up in store they have that capability and so i think that even if the world goes back to somewhat quasi normal that theyll have picked up additional business that theyre likely to keep and the stock is not crazy expensive, so i like it here i like that, as well. Tim, you had costco raise their dividend and jim cramer says if you cut your dividend im selling you and costco up. Do you like costco or do you like someone else out there in the retail world you know, i mean i love jims calls. I will say, i will say cutting dividends for a lot of companies here is prudent. Guy adami, same question to you. Costco, target, somebody else out there that you think will not only be a survivor, but is investable and profitable over the next few quarters, months and year