Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240713 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 13, 2024

Results. Julia ba Julia Boorstin is in los angeles and very volatile in the afterhours session. Melissa, great to have you back netflix adding 15. 7 million subscribers and thats about double what analysts expected. The company also forecasting the addition of 7. 5 million subscribers in the Second Quarter and thats more than 3 million more than analyst predictions for that Ceo Reed Hastings saying there are three main effects of coronavirus. In addition to subscriber growth temporarily accelerating due to home confinement and he says that International Revenue will be lower than previous forecast due to the dollars sharp rise and he also says due to production shutdowns and spending on contact will be delayed. Hastings also expects viewing to decline and subscriber growths it decelerate as home confinement ends and as for the impact of netflix does expect some delays and they do expect secondquarter content to be modestly impacted. Since we have a Large Library with thousands of titles for viewing and very strong recommendations. Our Member Satisfaction may be less impacted than our peers by a shortage of new content. Netflix is hosting its quarterly video call and that will start at 6 00 p. M. Eastern back over to you. Julia, thank you. Julia boorstin lets trade this dan nathan, i go to you first because there are interesting comments about who might sign up after this confine am periment and also the concern for netflix shareholders i want to make one point, too, here. For all of the people sitting there telling you dont Pay Attention to earnings, q1 earnings arent important. Q1 earnings are very important and it will give you a guide post for how the Companies Perform for the rest of the year and the commentary, despite limited visibility, very important. That being said, heres a company that had very High Expectations coming in the stock was up 30 on the year or so. That subscriber number was fantastic. Reed hastings not afraid to tell you the truth that things will decelerate subscribers were decelerating prior to this pandemic so then the other question that you have is the negative Free Cash Flow that they had to obtain and create content. That is going to continue and youve got to remember, the story about netflix at the end of this year was the competitive situation and that spend on content. So why did the stock fade in after hours . Because it was as good as it gets in 2020 for this company and an unforeseen thing thats affecting most of the competitors and its helping them out and its probably a downhill battle from her for them to me, the stock in the 450 level is still a sale. Going into this quarter, guy, a lot of analysts were expecting a pull forward in terms of signups and people in confinement, if theyve not signed up during confinement theyre not likely to join after which is a signal to me, at least, that its almost as good as it gets when it comes to getting new people to sign up because of this confinement and if theyre not going to sign up now, theyre just not going sign up ever. You can make that argument. Dan nith athan said it, you sait and a good movie, and it just keeps getting better, and i saw this tiger man, tiger king and that thing was ridiculous, and people are signing up in droves. So i can understand why youd want to take profits in the name especially given with what the Broader Market did today i would buy it again, against the old high i think it was july 2018, 419 i would be concerned on a close below 385, otherwise, i think you stay with the name one thing i would be worried about was, and this is a tim seymour thing and ill let you tell everybody what it means, but the numbers were disappointing and thats the one thing in this quarter that would give me some pause, but the net ads are ridiculously strong. Rpu thank you for cueing that guy. What i worry about here is there are a lot of things that may or may not change in terms of Consumer Preferences and lifestyle after covid19 settles down one thing thats not going to change is the Competitive Landscape. Hbo max goes live may twefrpth there may actually be some offering to at t subscribers that thats actually free. I look at netflix and whether its as good as it gets as has been said or where they have the ability to improve on the comps and i struggle with their ability to raise taxes any time soon netflix had the ability to raise prices and we were surprised by that and it was a consumer environment that well find ourselves in, and i think weve proven that its a cash flow burn is still an issue and i know they say theyll be around a billion in 2020 which was down from last year the debt levels are materiel, im not saying it will be an issue nearterm, but i think this company has to generate money and generate Free Cash Flow and the multiple makes no sense, specially in the Competitive Landscape or you need the multiple to other companies in the same space. If youre going to be looking at a Subscriber Base and right now the dollar is an issue there, but in the u. S. And canada, if the Subscriber Base will be somewhat stable and not growing terribly fast, materiel price increases or any price increase will be the way for netflix to make up on money that they get to spend in con tkt question to you has net flikflix become more val to you or less valuable or the same it has become more valuable to me, but i agree with you. The issue of the ability to raise prices is the question you think about this massive subscription number and it was massive. How sticky is that new Subscriber Base, right so when things are when reopen the world, are we going to see big changes to that and it gets to the point also of how sticky and also how much can you charge for that . And i think they probably maxed out for the nearterm, and so its an Extraordinary Company and theyre so far ahead out of the competition, but there is competition and even though its fantastic, to me, it doesnt mean you pay any price for it, no matter what and this valuation is just so out of my range, and the great product and lets bring in gene munster, managing partner of the ventures. Whats your take so far on the quarter . On im on the same page and agree that the word of the day is not their 15. 2 mill dprn set ads and the rd wo of the day is temporary. They need to tap into an undeniable truth about the future and when you think about netflix and their valuation and where theyre going, streaming is no longer an undeniable truth. Weve uncovered that years ago yes, netflix is a leader, but at the end of the day whats powering their Business Today is this is strong medication for shelter in place, and ultimately is as people experience that they on the other side of this, the truth is they dont want to be in their home as much, and there are going to be these types of services that will see diminishing growth ill emphasize to other aspects to this belief im on the rest page that this is overshvalued there theyll be beating numbers for the next couple of quarters. Think about the june quarter, with the 7. 8 million paid ads and the same thing will happen in september as someone who is negative, im sure the positive be numbers will last and i dont think the will respond. I want to take a pause and go straight to washington, d. C. And Kayla Tausche. Melissa, good to see you again. The senate has unanimously passed a 500 billion loan package that will expand it by 300 billion, and about 100 billion provided to hospitals and testing resources to combat the kroecoronavirus at the stagd agency level many stood up and objected to the process run on capitol hill with legislative text not made available before many cast their votes and ea votes and even so, it will tee up a vote in the house as soon as thursday and it will be several days before that before Small Businesses can get this new money. Kay Kayla Tausche in washington and more relief for Small Businesses on the way gene, lets continue our conversation about netflix and they did comment about liquidity and they said there was a 750 Million Credit Facility theyve not yet tapped and they had 12 month of liquidity, it at least spend time in the contact bought of delays and production what is your sense of person, theyre innes it of therefore million to fund this contract. Netflix will be around for a long time, but ultimately they have fueled the growths of content from debt, and i think that that is an important differentiator between netflix and the other fang stocks. There will be a coin concern and no question in my mind that netflix will be around next year, i just think the stock will be lower than it is today all right gene, thanks gene munster, luke ventures. Guy adami, were seeing the stock move around a lot and when i say a lot it was up about 11 points and now its down 0. 7 . What will you be listening for on this video call tonight theres new methodology and when did they become paid subs i understand why youve ridden the stock and my inclination is thats been true for a couple of years and they always seem to pull a robert out of tabbit outd they seem to understand the ads understanding the backdrop i think you buy it against that previous alltime high and the july high of 419 385 had the prior level and i would be worried on a close below there. I just dont think, all things being equal, ive been wrong before, and well see what happens. Breaking news, mean time on united airlines, phil lebeau has the story. This say big secondary offering from united 35. 2 million shares and the reason is very clear here. This is all about building up as much liquidity as possible as united and really all of the airlines are in the same boat. They know that its not just going to be a terrible Second Quarter. Summers going to be bad and Third Quarter is not going to be br great and the Fourth Quarter, maybe theyll see improvement and they need as much cash on hand as possible and united with a secondary offering just over 39 million shares and theyll price it somewhere in the 25 to 27 range and that will raise just over 1 billion back to you. Just quickly, united applied to borrow as much as 4. 5 million in the treasury and theyre getting the grants and pay loans under tpp and theyve raised 3 billion in debt and on top of thashlths a billion dollars and most people expect that not only with united, but with the airlines that well see this i think steve was out with a note and they added all of the capital raised since february and it comes out to 32 33 billion for the Major Airlines and nobody believes that were at the end of this yet, melissa. So when youre looking at the airlines, remember, they have made this commitment as part of t the c. A. R. E. S. Act look, this company will have the money to pay, not many people are expecting a big jump in demand come september 30th phil, thank you karen finerman. Youre a shareholder, what do you make of all this i am not. Wa not a shareholder. This is what happens when you go away, melissa, still i understand why you did it. The stock is down a little bit. I know it will be priced in the whole 3 or so, but for 1 billion, i think thats pretty good and you know, you talked about the debt theyd raised and this is good for the debt and any equity coming in below the debt is good youve got to do what youve got to do. I cant think of an industry, you know, in more peril than this one so good for them, and i agree with phil also you would expect others to come out and do something similar, aswell. We are just Getting Started here on fast money. We have got much more by ways of afterhours action that were tracking up next, well break down the latest numbers with chipotle, snap and Texas Instruments more on tonights mega meltdown esd well find out what sent the tumbling stay with us fast money is back in two. Save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, youll only have to pay for the data you need starting at just 12 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. Its the most reliable wireless network. And it could save you hundreds. Xfinity mobile. Welcome back to fast money. We have an earnings triple play. Snap, Texas Instruments, chipotle all on the move after reporting results and we have full Team Coverage to break down the headlines. We kick things off with kate rodgers and more on chipotles big quarter. Hi, melissa welcome back a solid Fourth Quarter with revenues coming in right in line samestore sales coming in at 3. 3 digital continued to show strength of 81 for q1 making up 26 of sales at 372 million thats the highest quarterly level ever march Digital Sales alone were up about 100 year on year the majority of chipotles restaurants are open for togo orders executives sounded upbeat and noted this is important because digital customers are sticky and they tend to come back average daily sales and order ahead have doubled since before covid19 the companys rewards program now has more than 11. 5 million members and daily signups spiked 4x. It has 900 million in cash, restricted cash and no debt adding it believes it has enough cash to sustain for well over a year chipotles ceo will join us exclusively on the exchange tomorrow and the stock is higher by 6. 5 , melissa, back over to you. Kate, thank you kate rodgers with the latest on chipotle tim, what struck me in reading the Research Notes on chipotle is Raymond James said the company can maintain positive store level ebitda in a down to 40 to 50 comp environments and theyve got a stellar balance sheet. Its pretty remarkable its remarkable they definitely have operating leverage in their business and if they think about how those restaurants are structured, there is an ability to keep a lean team in there theyre seeing that kind of Digital Sales growth, they were a driver to this multiple as it came back from the food scares of a couple of years ago higher ticket amounts and bigger basket sizes and have been a driver for the multiple. It would be tough for me to get on here and say i love chipotle after these numbers. I do think the market has rewarded this and based upon expectations this is a relief, but i dont think this is something you have to dive into. Karen, can you get your head around this multiple here . No. I feel like yeah, over and over, great company. It was very impressive two things they said that they think theyll hang on to the digital gains which is fantastic, and they think that theres fatigue in cooking, and i can guarantee you that is happening. Certainly in my house and probably millions of others. Im right there with tim great company, theyre really impressive, but i cant get onboard and i feel theyre priced for perfection, and i do seem to deliver perfection, but i cant do it. We get back to Julia Boorstin with all of the details. Julia . Thats right. Snap shares soaring 21 in afterhours trading after reporting that it grew its users and its revenue faster than expected in the First Quarter. Snap ending the First Quarter with 229 million active daily users growing by 11 million over the course of the quarter and while snap wont give earnings guidance, secondquarter Revenue Growth through april 19th is up 15 and it expects the addition of around 10 million act itive users. Its shift from direct response ad which is now comprise over half its revenue while many advertising budgets decline due to covid19, we expect highRevenue Growth rates in the first two months of the quarter which offset our lower growth in march. These high growth rates in the beginning of the quarter reflect our investments in our audience, ad products and optimization and give us confidence our ability to grow revenue over the long term make sure to tune in tomorrow morning in squawk alley. Ill have an exclusive interview with evan spiegel. Dan nathan, where do you stand on snap and are you concerned about declining ad revenue, and not just for snap, but for other companies out there . I think its more significant for the other. I think the ads were dedicated is much smaller for advertisers and its important to remember this company is expected to do maybe 2 billion in sales this year thats versus facebook at 70 and its growing over the last few years slower than facebooks been growing i just have a problem. Evan spiegel has this ship going in the right direction and theyre expecting to do 2 billion in sales and on that basis lose 1 billion on nets income i just have an issue of 21 and the guide for q2 on the revenue front was good and i think consensus was basically confirming that those trends should continue through skwshgs2 how many of these companies stick i expect that happen, and there is a 21 pop in the after hours saying 13 of the shares are short. Where do you stand on snap and are there other things this quarter to other earnings that we expect in the future . Well, again, i think digital ad sales are probably the good and the bad as i think digital programs can be cut very quickly as well, but i think theyve been a beneficiary here and the daily average users of i think they came in at 229 versus 220, 4. 5 expected this is very bullish and its hard for me to feel like all these structural and maybe even kind of headwinds in terms of their audience were changed overn

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