Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240713 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240713

Julia . Thats right. Disney cfo christine mckarther announced disney will be sustaining the dividend which will preserve 1. 6 billion in cash and this comes as the Company Announces that covid19 cost disney 1. 4 billion to its bottom line in the quarter and that includes a hit to advertising, movie delays and think, most of all, the closure of disneys parks. The disney parks alone had an operating income loss of 1 billion in the quarter due to covid driving a 58 drop in operating income now heres what the new ceo says about the plan that he Just Announced to reopen disney shanghai on may 11th take a listen. The approach we take may include implementation of density control measures as well as health and prevention procedures that comply with state and federal guidelines we are seeing encouraging signs of a gradual return for some semblance of normalcy in china the company talking about how before it began to close its domestic parks in midmarch they had been seeing an increase in both guest attendance and guest spending and how the brand is strong and the people will return to parks and theaters once things open up again and a dramatic impact of covid. Any mention so far on the Conference Call, julia, about Strategic Investments and other costcuts . Well, Strategic Investments in terms of where theyre making their bets right now, melissa. Theyre talking a lot about the focus treatmenting and the better than expected growth on disney plus and the success of their investment for hulu and the odd man out there on espn plus because there hasnt been any live sports for weeks and weeks now although they did point to the Michael Jordan documentary and the success they found there releasing that documentary early, but right now it seems like the bright spot is disney plus which is certainly in investment mode right now julia, thank you. Unfortunate, guy adami that disney plus is the bright spot here and disney is not where it makes money no. And if you listen and hi, mel. If you listen to the great tom rogers who was just on with sarre and wilf, he breaks downed he the headwinds facing disney. I dont think youll see the 79 level that you saw march 20th and the runoff off of the disney numbers were to the upside i do think youll be able to buy this stock cheaper somewhere between 90 and 95 is where you get back in. The stocks down 54 now from the thanksgiving high. Earnings are down 63 year over year so the math sort of lines up and theres just no real, in my opinion, i just dont see the catalyst to buy the stock right now in this current environment. So i think you wait and buy it cheaper and i think youll have that Opportunity One from Moffett Nathanson which we discussed and the other from rich greenfield and one point that rich was bringing up is here in this sort of environment, will disney have to pull back on Strategic Investments and pull back on a Growth Business that granted, is not making money yet, but streaming is the bet of the future, tim and im wondering how you see this Conference Call playing out. Oftentimes it is comments on spending and in this case, maybe cut back on spending that can move the stock. Whats really fascinating is that what was once an advantage over netflix that disney had, some of the strengths in their diversified business are really liabilities relative to netflix. So two companies that probably right now and if not, 20 minutes ago were the exact same market cap that were 183 million and disneys strength in studio and dtc are really hurting them now as we look for the next couple of months and netflix was this big cash burn story and disneys now having to cut the dividend we didnt think about the Balance Sheet in disney ever this was something that was some level of confidence. I like the pro activity on the activity and for investors, that will send the signal that liquidity is something we never thought about here and the ecosystem and however you want to phrase this are advantages. Im a shareholder and i think the market has priced a lot of pain here, if youre in a market multiple, it you think it should have a premium as it has that does make you wonder what sort of liquidity issue they might be being looking at in terms of the shutdown and maybe this is a conservative thing and smart move to do right now. I think it is did you say suspended for the whole year or the first half of the year they only paid dividend twice a year, so i thought that was just for the first half which was 1. 6 billion. Either way, i think it is the right thing for them to do and it is a little scary for shareholders who have always thought of disney as just rock solid and never had to question whether they would have any reduction of their dividend. This is a little bit surprising, but i do think theyre doing the right thing. You raise the money when you can, not when you have to and we didnt ever think of the Balance Sheet until they did the fox deal and it turns out the timing of that was unfortunate when the rest of their businesses and they never could have foreseen all correlating to one or to no revenue, i guess it was happening at the same time i think that it is getting a premium still in the market. We dont know what their earnings are going look like and to me the question is when do they return to whatever the new normal is and what is the new normal for some of their businesses i dont know i mean, i love the name. I just feel like i agree with guy, i think well get a chance later. To clarify they will fore got next semiannual, and that will result in a 1. 6 billion in savings. Grasso, where do you see the stock here theres no way you can talk around the void of over 26 billion in revenue thats absent from the park. To talk about technicals within the stock. First of all, when you look at the dividend that will be greeted with a screaming sell tomorrow when the liquidity comes back in the marketplace. I think youll get a shot, as everyone else said lower how much lower can it go i think we might see 92 and lower than where you see it now. I dont think well see the march 18th low of 79 and i think the stock can break 90 and be in the mid80s. So i would wait and be a buyer of netflix lets bring in the man who mrit rally wrote the book, columnist, James Stewart hi what did you make of the quarter and of bob chapices performance. Jim . I think that we lost jim. Well try to iron that out guy, do you agree with grasso . Mid80s . Listen, i do absolutely think it could have a 90 print so mid80s is not unreasonable especially if you think the Broader Market for whatever reason we hang around this s p 500 level and if you think theres a downturn, mid80s is absolutely in the cards. The last crunched as you should be and its killer that Dennis Rodman was the glue. With that said, im not hurdling myself to any of the openings, and i dont think im alone, and i think thats sort of the point karens making so i think youll have an opportunity lower, in my opinion lower is 90 bucks. I missed last weekends installment because i was doing the gene wilder movie marathon as your recommendation, guy. In terms of reopenings, tim, were getting word that shanghai parks can reopen may 11th and can we see a faster bounceback granted with some masks, social distancing and all those things in place, and maybe we get a better idea of disneys business sooner than we all think 36 of the revenue is their theme parks and Consumer Experiences and u. S. Is clearly the lion share of that, but shanghais very important, and what we are also starting to see is the anecdotal news flow out of china is people are being cautious and rightly so, leaving that aside, its encouraging to hear things getting back to normal its encouraging to know that the other side of this is not just that disney plus is better, but look at media. Look at 28 roughly up in the media and 17 in the cable so these are at least encouraging numbers in the face of what is a very difficult quarter the new normal for disney means most folks and ill listen to the analyst on this and the normalized dps you have to wait until late 21 if not 22 and the market is okay at not pricing it at the current multiple and whats that number that you put on this and i think thats how the market will really, and that will differ between youre a bull or bear. Late calendar year 2021 or 2022 yeah. I think normalized earnings based upon what we kind of know about what we dont know is probably late 21 now lets bring in jim stewart of the new york times. Good to hear you. Im in a rural area and wow, a lot to absorb here they were leading me right to the Balance Sheet and they were really worried and they have 38 billion in debt and now theyre suspending the dividend, and this really is and i know there is a lot of authority inside the company. Given the suspension of the next payment of the semiannual dividend, you would say this is a liquidity issue or will soon be i think it is i dont think see how you can view it in any other context i, ive been a fan of disney and theyve done a lot of grand things, but they are being hidden the shutdowns really only came for the most part in midmarch and most of the quarter they were going right along and you see what a massive impact and it will be much bigger this quarter even under the most capable estimates and the question is do they have the strength to get through this its amazing that were even talking about this given that it had a legendary Balance Sheet, but it did decide to take on all that good will to its Balance Sheet which a lot of people had bowed to that even when it happened and the timing was absolutely horrendous, and i think yes, they are doing what they can good for them theyre raising the debt when they can and theyll have to cut it again the question is is that enough and thats something investors will be nervous about. Tim on the panel was saying we perhaps dont get an idea of what the earnings are until late 2021 or even 2022. What does a disney look like under that scenario. In other words, what sorts of cuts in your view will they be making first what are their priorities . Will it be spending on a streaming service that doesnt yet make money, but is the bet of the future . How should we look at disney i think that will be a big problem for them because theyre going head to head with netflix and amazon and they have massive resources. Theyre spending billions a year on original programming and disney never had to spend as much given their legacy brand and theyll have to spend a lot of money and theyre doing great there and the numbers are impressive, but if they have to pull back on net spending, and i think that they very well might that is going to be very hard for them to compete. That was always going to be a lowmargin business for the foreseeable future because it does require so much investment and original program that will keep up with them. So i think they really cant afford to cut there, but they may have no choice they furloughed employees and reduced the cost as much as they can, but i just dont see where theyll get the cash flow to wrap up the kind of investment they need to do in the disney area jim, thank you so enough for your analysis. Always good to chat with you. Disney shares in the afterhours session plummeting in aftersession lows down 3. 2 . Jim mentioned facing a liquidity crisis and it is unbelievable and stunning to put liquidity cries and disney in the same sentence when just six months ago it was a completely different story. Right before fox and i was looking at while jim was talking disney bonds and the less money going out the door the better, but some disney paper traded down to the mid80s during the worst of march and rallied back all of the way up to close to par. I would be curious where it trades after this Earnings Report it is astounding, though, that we even have, like you were saying, the liquidity crisis at disney they have so much leverage to pull, though they could issue more debt and they could issue equity. I dont think thats happening at all, but there are a lot of things they can do and i know cutting corporate overhead, but still theyve got to spend this is really not the where bob iger thought it would be two months or three months after stepping down which was the top of his game. He may be at the top of his game, just may not be at the top of disneys evolution. We are just Getting Started on fast money. Beyond meat after a beef with a fake meat company that has them licking their chops. A tale of these two stocks and why theyre moving in opposite directions in after hours. Stay with us fast money is back in two. Sometimes the challenges of todays world make it tough to take care of yourself, thats why you can rely on natures bounty. To give you the support you need. To stay motivated keep active and sleep well. Add a little more health to your day. With natures bounty. Swithout even on yoleaving your house. Add a little more health to your day. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, youll only have to pay for the data you need saving you up to 400 a year. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. Its the most reliable wireless network. And it could save you hundreds. Xfinity mobile. Welcome back to fast money. We have an earnings alert on beyond meat. Lets get to aditi roy with the details. Nice to see you. Beyond shares are soaring after firstquarter results showed that the companys selling more product through u. S. Retail partners as many restaurants remain shuddered beyond meat says sales at its u. S. Retail partners like target, walmart and costco were more than double those of u. S. Restaurant, nearly 50 million to more than 22 million thats important to investors who are tracking the pandemics impact on the company as restaurants struggle and supermarket sales soar beyond says it sold more products because of an expansion in distribution partners, new products launched and increased demand at existing Retail Partners the company suspended its guidance in 2020 because of covid19, and ethan brown addressed the pandemic during an earnings call. As various regions around the world implemented stay at home orders, what we did see a simultaneous boost in sales through retail customers, this was not enough to offset the deterioration in demand, nevertheless, we believe the bluepronged approach to both retail and Food Service Outlets and helped to mitigate even more significant covid19 related disruptions to our revenue some other key points, profits spiking 10 million a year ago to nearly 38 million in q1 and Gross Margins rose 27 last year to nearly 39 in q1. Another thing greg tells me that as the company switches its focus from the restaurants to the retail that one challenge will remain managing those margins and packaging for retailers than it is for wholesalers. Back to you, melissa. Aditi roy on beyond meat. Grasso, where do we go here. We know that 50 of sales are in food service and thats very hard hit and will continue to be so as long as the shutdown lasts. Right schools and restaurants are closed to your point. Even after its jumped, the 2 hunday moving average is right below 111 the stock is up 35 year to date you couldnt have painted a better environment or scenario with all of the other meat producers like tyson and sanderson farm struggling with supply issues and constraints for this one to perform and its still below its 2 hunday moving average. I would be a seller of this one and a buyer for those under duress for the meat supply issues tyson did say on the Conference Call, that was yesterday and these days they melt together and the spike in meat prices will be transient, tim. Beyond meat will benefit or has benefited from the spike in prices which will make its product, the allmeat product comparable to real meat and thats only transient then maybe this boost is transient, as well yeah. I mean, i think what is this meat as a service . I dont know what were doing here, but obviously the social trends towards alternative foods, plantbased foods is something that was very early on, and i can get into that. Id be less excited about whats happened in the short run. I do think we talked about this earlier on our call, fertilizer prices are movinghigher. There is more demand some of this could be translated in entire prices and inflation is good for food companies, just be clear i like that story. I just think that the Competitive Landscape should not allow for the multiple that we have here and then obviously, the headwinds on covid19 are food service and international growths which has been a big part of what people are expecting the next leg of this story. Im with steve i should be fading this move and i wasnt bullish on the company before today and these numbers were very impressive based upon those coming i dont know any of you are fans of altmeat the investment. The trend is there. You pay for this trend and the valuation. The trend is definitely the trend is definitely there. I actually have 12 college kids living here now and at least half of them are vegetarian. So its definitely happening i just feel like a lot of that is priced in and one more, impossible burger. I saw them signing up with kroger today so i just think the Competitive Landscape will be difficult going forward. I cant get onboard with the valuation. Karen does not run a boardinghouse or a college or anything like that and the 12 kids are not all hers, although four of them are it sounds like a nightmare, by the way. Thanks for clarifying that. I dont know if you saw the shortage of beef, between 5 and 10 have chickenonly menus. Only chicken at wendys. Wheres the beef literally thats fine with me, by the way, number one. Number two, we had this conversation last night and ill say it again i dont love the product without getting into great detail and i think we all understand why and i love the stock and i still love the stock and respectfully, the evolution of the human race is transient, as well and thats been going on for thousands of years. Transient means whatever you want it to mean and the growth with this company is pret

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