Lets go to bob. Hello there are a number of reasons we keep rallying. The bottom line is for the moment generally the market is choosing to see the Glass Half Full whats the Glass Half Full a number of data points. We did have better than expected china export data. Thats pretty good news overall. Were in range bound territory but the trend is slowly on the upside moving to the upside. Lets review the data. Thats a data point we had generally were seeing reopening hopes. Were also seeing a mass i fiscal monetary stimulus most people believe the fed is real the fed put is real and hopes for improved treatments and vaccines Glass Half Full for today. Theres days when the market is glass half empty and they recognize the risks. You can see that in down days. Further downward earnings revisions. A third of the s p is given no guidance at all. Its hard to figure out where the multiples are. Flst concern it will get bogged down in partisan debate in congress we all need more fiscal stimulus and theres concerns about additional tensions with china for the moment today, powerful rally, five to one advancing and if look at the market temperature, were range bound trending up. The brent has been improving volatility, the vix is the lowest level we have seen early march. Volume, were trending lower this is very interesting may has been very low volume a fraction of what it was back in march and april keep an eye on that one as well. Finally, want to point out those meg cap names. Everything here, the five biggest stocks up 5 in a couple of cases when those five move, the overall s p will move even if the other ones dont do that much back do you. Robert, thank you very much stocks are surging on this thursday afternoon on pace for their first weekly gain in three weeks. Oil on pace for its biggest weekly jump since futures contracts were created back in the 1980s. The nasdaq crossing 9,000 for the First Time Since the first week of march. Its close to being positive for the year our next guest is trimming his connect expo equity exposure. Well find out why russ, lets go to that point you say or my note says you say that you believe your base case is equities will finish the year higher than they are today why are you trimming equities now . We are trimming equities a bit but there area couple of n a, nuances. Were entering a part of the year where under normal circumstances markets are range bound. Clearly these are not normal circumstances. Theres going to be a lot of back and forth as we learn about the pace that stayed openings. The market had a record advance in a short period of time. Were taking a little bit off the table. What we are doing is were looking in a trading environment to harvest income. That means strategies like selling volatility and its a way to get some carry. That good news would then make you edge back into equities and what could that good news be if we get good news on a vaccine that would be one thing but what would make you move back into equities just to be clear, we never left equities and we still have an allocation thats just around our benchmark around 60 were still committed to equities we have been taking a little bit of profits the answer to your question could be a couple of things. Its going to be good news the other thing i think will be key to watch is the progression of the state openings. Will we continue to see that states can cautiously but consistently open their economies, get people back to work thats really what the economy, thats what the market needs i didnt mean to suggest you were out of equities by any sense. You say youve been trimming equities and my question was when would you go the opposite direction and maybe add to your equity stakes. You explained that lets go to your base case which is this. If you were to put a probably on that base case, wa would it be and by contrast what would the probability be that we go the other way and we do not just have a little recession but we have a full blown depression because the Unemployment Rate goes high, goes above 20 , spending falls, defaults happen and spending just falls right off a cliff. I think this is great question lets be clear about a couple of things first of all, even if this, if were going to call it a recession, this will be deeper than anyone has seen in our lifetime well see a massive contraction annualized somewhere pick a number, 20, 25 per year. Unemployment is heading toward the mid teens f not 20 . The question we have is not that that wont occur it will in q2. You start to see some healing in q3 and q4. I think it will depend on the ability of states to pull back on restrictions and let businesses open. Your question about why dont you see wave of bankruptcies, i think were going to all the stiffs taking it by the fed should hopefully prevent a liquidity crisis from turning into a solvency crisis thank you for being with us always good to hear your perspectives melis melissa. Three million more jobless claims in the latest weeks and the april employment report is due out tomorrow steve is looking at how we can come back from them. Thank you, melissa. Tomorrow we are expecting a very, very difficult report. Today no less difficult but maybe a touch better the numbers 3. 619 million. The numbers to the right of the decimal point was normal for jobless claims and now we have to add three million to it you can see in the next chart the decline of the the weekly decline down from 6. 6 million a few weeks ago. The trend is in the right direction. The numbers still from a level stand point are unbelievable some of the hardest hit states, michigan, pennsylvania some of the lower states, florida, example they may not be processing claims wle we look at three separate gauges store closings, they are down. The percentage changed on a weekly basis is down we are Still Closing stores according to yelp data the infection rate is down as well it had been up near about 98 a week ago compared to the aver raj in the month of april. Now its down to 78 thats pretty good but its still high again traffic not coming back almost at all just about 32 of what it normally is at rush hour yesterday in ten open cities were trying to follow this stuff. Trying to get a gauge or different ways the economy might be coming back one thing it seems right now is while some states have partial reopenings, customers, consumers and businesses havent really made the transition yet. Melissa. Thank you federal borrowing may force the fed to consider rates. With us now is ken rogoff. Professor, great to have you with us. Thank you deeply negative meani ining u 3 walk us through the scenario in which this makes sense first of all, you cant do it the fed did not prepare for it in 2018 and 2019 you need to be prevent people from hoarding cash, make changes to tax, legal, other things. None of these are huge obstacles that can be done look at what the fed is doing. Basically, buying huge swaths of corporate debt, junk bonds ford motor might be paying 8 or 9 on markets but borrowing from the fed. Boeing is able to stay afloat without having to have any conditions yet if we get out of this quickly and the v shape recovery that feels like its built into the market at this point takes place, no problem. If, for example, we have a second wave of infections in the fall, maybe even greater than this one or many further smaller waves and this goes on for a long time. A lot of restructuring needs to be done. You cant just guarantee every credit in the economy. You cant go to sort of a form of socialism that were tiptoeing towards. You need at least an instrument as part of this thats market base i think if were able to do deeply negative Interest Rate policy would keep a lot of companies afloat there are others that would still need to be restructured in some way the fact that we have taken off the table really unfortunate and your forced to treat every one the same i think its a mistake it works pretty much the same. You need fiscal policy and all these asset things were doing the fact its not in tool kit is a big problem. Lets be clear, basically youre saying what the fed is doing in terms of blanket debt guarantees at this point may not, in the long run, be what is best because the recovery that you see is not going to be a bounce back recovery even though the stock market is back to levels we have seen a year ago you think a better bet is wealth will be these are your words. Destroyed on catastrophic scale. What does that look like in the economy in terms of the metrics we all know. Its like nothing we have seen since the great depression. The question is how fast do we come back. Im very skeptical of the view were mostly that in a year. I think its going to be five years. That would be my point estimate of how long it is until we get back to where we were in 2019. Took us three years after the natural crisis of 2008 i think this is worse. Were maybe near the end of the beginning of this. Nowhere near the end we may have flattened the curve but we havent bent it down in terms of National Case counts i like you, im very concerned that this is a longer sort of healing period than a lot of people are saying. It will take peoples 401 k s and carve them by half were really failing to discount with a possibility that you describe which is depression level unemployment that persists, that doesnt turn around in a year even that may last and the recovery may last five years the ones going out of business are the smaller ones. Theres going to be a consolidation. There will be more profits for the firms that are left so this isnt an every one loses situation. I think the tech industry, the big ones will lose they will gain the start ups are going under. Its not every one loses i mean, there are obviously tens of trillions of dollars in the stock market saying that the combination of fed being so supportive and the virus maybe not being so bad its saying that things will be better when i listen to macro econom t economists around the world, i dont quite see it i hope its right. I wouldnt advise people to pull out of the stock market. Im not saying that. As far as what im looking at in the economy, i think its problematic and i think going back to fed, i think this plan can work for a while but it cant work for ever. We can go to europe too. Theres plan of keeping every worker and every firm there. Thats why their Unemployment Rate hasnt spiked they can do it for a few months, for a year, two years. They may well end up with Unemployment Rates greater than ours the fed, as we understand, has not actually embarked on buying any corporate debt all though they have indicated they are willing to do so just by job owning they have accomplished a lot when it comes to the recovery we have seen in the junk markets whats a longer term implication here the fed is it in for the long run even though it thinks it will be the short run. Its left holding the bag, so to speak. What is the implication of that . Well, eventually, were going to see a lot of bankruptcies theres going to be a lot of businesses that dont work theres going to be corporateses that have a lot of problem i dont criticize what the fed has done given the tools it has. I think its done what needs to be done. I couldnt have done better. Where i think the mistakes were made was back, say, last year, when they were rethinking what should their instrument be what should they do if something really bad happens they prepared for a one sigma or a 1. 5 sigma. Not a four like were seeing thank you for your time we preeappreciate it. Be sure to tune in to closing bell theyll be talking to jack lew lets get to rick in chicago for a check on the bond market might be interesting to hear what he thinks of what professor rogoff just said absolutely. Ive had the professor on many times. Hes absolutely correct about so many things. Fed fund futures are backing up what the professor said. Notice what the high is today. The high in the contract is 100. 005. Even though its dipped below there, everything today from october of 20 on has traded 100 in its range and right now everything, including december on, december 20, 21, all the contracts are currently trading over 100 some of them as high as 100. 04 for the mid 21 contract. What does that mean in english when you go over 100, youre discounting, meaning going into negative territory for fed fund futures. This is what investors think it doesnt mean the fed has to do it. I think they need to push back on the contract. Real quickly, look at intraday of tens. You can see they lost a little ground look at intraday of uao. United airlines are trying to do 2. 25 billion they are having a hard time moving the paper on the street its never closed below 15. 5 back to you, tyler thank you very much. Coming up, two big ceo interviews the head of pen national gaming. The Casino Company had been making a big push into Sports Betting and then sports got shut down the path forward for this company. The future of the office your office. My office. Bob sulentic a wreath thats big in the commercial office space. How the company is reaecting as moreamericans work from home well talk about that next sometimes the challenges of todays world make it tough to take care of yourself, thats why you can rely on natures bounty. To give you the support you need. To stay motivated keep active and sleep well. Add a little more health to your day. With natures bounty. So were working 24 7 toected maintain a reliable network, to your day. To meet your growing internet needs. Were helping customers who are experiencing Financial Difficulties stay connected. Were increasing internet speeds for low income families in our internet essentials program. And delivering selfinstall kits to your door. Nos comprometemos a mantenerte conectado. Were committed to keeping you connected. For more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity. Com prepare. Welcome back shares of cbre popping on a First Quarter earnings beat. The company said it has more than 3 billion in total liquidity including some credit lines but its also withdrawing guidance for 2020 in light of the uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic nice to have you here. The rest of the year must look murky. We had a very good start to year through mid march and we did see the affects of covid19 coming caused sales to slow down. We were running ahead of where we thought we would be when we got to mid march and we were quiet happy with the way the First Quarter tirn eer turned o. Theres a lot of uncertainty until we get to the other side of this covid19 circumstance. Lets take your various segments of business one at a Time Starting with offense space. Is the use of offense space going to ever be what it was before covid19 . You see some Companies Like barclays and other big employers saying we dont expect to have the same number of people in our offices going forward. What do you say . Were in touch very closely with a High Percentage of the large Office Occupiers around the u. S. And the world they are going to look for ways in future beyond covid19 to work more from home. They also expect to go back to the office for some degree what well see is following. Well see mechanisms that allow employees to work from home effectively. Theres a lot of that going on now. Then well see an ability to go into the office, to collaborate and so forth. People will be more spread out and the space will be more densely used theres going to be a lot of change i will say when theres change in the use of space, its generally been very good for our company because it creates opportunities to advise our clients in project worth so forth. The use of office space will continue to be an Important Role bob, i know you dont have a crystal ball none of us do. In terms of your best guess as to when youll get a good sense to when tenants are renegotiating their leases if theyre asking for lower terms when will you start seeing that. I imagine youve seen some of that already when do you think the brunt of that will happen i think it will happen in a way that provides real insight once we feel pretty comfonfiden were to the other side of covid19 and people start going back to work and figuring out with the clear eye view of now were also backing the office space and we have some people working from home. What does it mean . How does it work spread between the two. I think youll see people extend their leases i think in the interim youll see people use some coworking facilities but oriented toward suites, not open space were going to have to get to the other side where people feel comfortable making real long term commit ms and decisions about how space will be used im not sure were going to get to industrial and apartment buildings but i want to get to retail and whats going on there. Retailers run on a fine marvin how have you been working with them what are you hearing what are you doing with the retailers who may be in distress i start by saying retail is not going away thats for sure. Prior to covid19, still Something Like 85 of retail was bricks and mortar. Human beings want places to go they want restaurants, shops, places to get their haircut. Places to work out, et cetera. Grocery stores groes stroicery stores are one e great places for people to go but it is going to change. We went from downtowns to malls to Big Box Retail to ecommerce its going to keep changing. Theres going to be some losers because of covid19. Some difficult circumstances but theres going to be a return to physical retail and theres going to be some opportunity created as a result of that. Thank you very much you got one thing right. For me, going to the Grocery Store is a big day these days. Its a happy making day. We wish you the best melissa. The laggards are leading the market higher. Financials is the second worst group this year down 30 can you bank on a rebound . Thats next on power lunch pl at t is here providing support with advanced services for First Responders and connecting temporary hospitals, mobile testing sites and Emergency Management centers because until their job is done it is essential we all have their backs its what weve always done. Its what well always do. But inside every etf. There are untold hours of careful construction. Infinite what ifs . And contingency plans. Creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. Tap untapped potential. And strengthen confidence i