21. 5 Million People lost their jobs in april. Oil prices have also been higher last check of wti saw it just above 24. Thats a began of about 3 that link between oil and stock market futures has been strong too. It has been very, very strong it is interesting. It has been strong on the way up the question is was it strong on the way down it is interesting to think what has been driving what . It has been stuck here. It is up 11 the next morning it is 26 and then 23 again. At the end of the session, it seemed to go back. Weve been holding at 24 24, 25 that seems to be enough. These futures are up 250 points every morning. At the end of the day, weve given it back. We are up to 250 again are you kidding me, china, if we are being nice about trade, thats enough to send the markets up again we are back to that . At least it takes the threat off the table. If you start adding tariffs on, i wonder what happens. Earlier this week, all of this harsh rhetoric. We talked about it yesterday, what about the second phase with china. Are we no longer going to be able to do it because the two countries are so angry with each other. We are talking 16 to 17 unemployment it seems like maybe they were nice to each other in a phone call it is like, thank you, sir, may i take another we talked about how the president was able to threaten tariffs because he had the benefit of a Strong Economy and market he doesnt not have the job market it makes you wonder how much more you could possibly bare the bad news is worse than it has ever been. That seems to be in the future how good did the talks go yesterday . Did we even know that is enough . 200 points in the morning doesnt make me sit up and Pay Attention anymore. We talk about how in our own minds. 1,000 points would get my attention. 200 does not right right talking about a new world, we have a big morning here. The ceo of moderna will be joining us to discuss the fda approval of the Coronavirus Vaccine candidate for the phase two study. Ceo of uber will be with us to talk about the impact of his business and the outlook of earnings last night and joining us to share his thoughts on the economy and comments and he has ideas about what is about to happen next. We are then going to be counting down to the jobs report to analyze what could be an historic month for job losses. Expectations there, expected to be a decline for 21. 5 million of nonfarm payroll. At 16 , the highest rate since the Great Depression becky, i read your husband is a i read this this morning. You will come in contact with someone about as different from you as it could get. Strangely, there will be a mutual attraction but could be the start of a beautiful friendship isnt that weird, i read that and i thought of austin. You thought of austin i am sure austin is tingling. We havent seen him in a while. Weve been in lockdown the lunch hasnt happened. Lunch didnt happen for years before the lockdown. You guys were never going to payoff on that he wont let me so he can keep dangling that u. S. And china trade negotiators are talking by phone. As i said at the open, hopefully with interpreters. Eunice yoon joins us live from beijing with the headlines good morning good afternoon for you, i guess. Good morning, joe i think people are just happy that lines of communication are still open and people are within both administrations trying to keep the wheels on for the trade deal as you were talking about, this is lighthizer and mnuchin and chinas vice premier hu. Though spoke over the phone and agreed theyll Work Together to try to improve the atmosphere so that trade deal reached in january would be implemented they also said both countries intend to meet their obligations in a timely manner perhaps a way to improve the atmosphere, china announced it is going to scrap some investment quotas for foreign investors. These are limits two institutions had been using and will simplify procedures and those new regulations go into effect on june 6 and effectively make it much easier for institutions like Goldman Sachs or bnb paribas to vest in stocks and bonds. Pointing that trade deal is progressing and china has been buying u. S. Soy and meat and has removed restrictions on some u. S. Farm goods. Finally, what i thought was interesting, this whole week, weve had a lot of reminders of the importance of the u. S. Consumer to American Companies we had another reminder today because for disney, the shanghai park shoeold tickets. They sold out for the first day in three minutes and for the whole week in one hour Shanghai Disney was being discussed a lot. Most people said they wanted to get tickets because they didnt want to have to wait a long time in lines people are excited to go to the park on monday wow, that is not what i would have expected. It reminds me of the nfl draft. It was like, i would never watch that the day it was happening, i was like, its three hours until the nfl draft. We are ready for something to do we all need to be entertained. Yeah, the background is that Chinese People have been kup cooped up for a long time. Also a lot of parents who have had kids at home cooped up and not a lot to do. Disney is limiting the capacity but even with those limitations, there are a lot of people who are interested theyll have to go through temperature checks and there will be social distancing at the park it is something people in china have been living with and there is still a lot of excitement about going on the rides and doing something different. The excitement is about the social distancing. Can you imagine getting on those rides and not having to wait in line a long time the only time you wouldnt have to wait on super long lines. If you have to get on a plane or train, that might make you think a little bit as to whether or not you want to go this time around there is still plenty of people around shanghai who want to get into that park when does bordom, when does that become Strong Enough . You have to feel better about the overall environment not beg as dangerous as it was at the peak of the pandemic i felt it a few times, i was like, ugh, you risk it it is still in the back of your mind it is worthwhile to go to disney and social distance and wear a mask but you still know it is riskier than the last time you went you are willing to do it because the boardom is more than the fear there is people wanting to get back to some normalcy. People want that andrew, would you go now to a restaurant where they would have a third occupancy, waiters would be wearing masks, social distancing at the restaurant would you go now ive said i would like to do that by the end of may three weeks is a different story. Not today. I might do it three weeks from now. Im eating the take outfood already. Im not it is already being prepared for us by someone who im not sure joe you have to get there. You have to open the door, sit on the seat, touch the tables. They are going to wipe that down people may breath on you. So you are not going out until, you dont know, 18 months it depends where you do it. Im in connecticut i might do it here because i think the risk is lower. But in new york city, even though the numbers are coming down, the total volume compared to other cities where numbers are min scho are miniscule. Im going to a place where they have a third occupancy. Outdoor dining at some point during this pandemic, if there is no vaccine, we need to focus on the Vulnerable People and make sure that they are locked down as ever but the younger people, i think it is never going to be absolutely perfect, i dont think. We are starting to see some of the effects whether drug use, alcohol use, suicide these are small examples people selling out tickets in three minutes to go do something. We have uber to talk about we do in corporate news, uber shares are actually higher. The Company Posted the biggest net loss in three quarters revenue topped expectations. Ride bookings were lower eats food delivery was up 52 . Well talk to the ceo live at 8 00 eastern time. Youve been talking to him a while about this stuff well get his thoughts on uber eats people used to question that business before because it was expensive. Now it looks like a superstar up 52 . Al also roku shares lower this morning. It expects ad sales to grow at a slower pace and reported higher cancellations as advertisers decided to save cash that stock down about 7 more to come on a special edition of this fridays squawk box. Everyone will be focused on this jobs number. Getting ar getting ready for what might be the most important number tofhe year the jobs report well bring it to you after the break our Retirement Plan with voya gives us confidence. We can spend a bit now, knowing were prepared for the future. Surprise we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. Im good at my condo. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. Confident financial plans, calming financial plans, complete financial plans. Theyre all possible with a cfp® professional. Find yours at letsmakeaplan. Org. The april jobs report is due out in just over two hours expected to show the highest Unemployment Rate since the Great Depression chief u. S. Economist hard to believe the market indicated up sharply just before two hours before we are anticipating before 2. 5 Million People lost their jobs in april. What is the market anticipating at this point. Market is always moving on surprises, right this has been a Long Time Coming weve been looking for a scarey number since we saw the economy close down since march we saw it come and people could prepare as best they can. Does anything come as a surprise in this number today . That would be difficult the expectations we have about what is going to happen is just a huge number and a lot of variability about what it could be its a very uncertain and unprecedented time challenging to surprise the markets today. How long do you expect these job losses to last i agree with you. Whatever the headline print is, the Unemployment Rate jumps to, well be digging into the report to see what we can glean about how long these numbers may stay so bad for example, we are expecting this big jump to 16 , 20 . Within those statistics, we can get a sense of how many of those unemployed are expecting to be called back to work within six months in march, a quarter of those unemployed expect to be called back within six months when you saw that happen, when the Unemployment Rate is dominated by the shortterm unemployed, it tends to fall back fairly quickly. So evidence like that we can clean from in the underlying data about how sustainable those numbers are going to be, thats what us economists will be most focused on that is a number weve talked about in all the years and not a number ive recalled seeing. Is that a number well see instant aniously it is not a number weve gotten used to looking at but it is within the Household Survey data so the report that we get not the payroll numbers we tend to focus on but where the Unemployment Rate comes from they do break down unemployment. Is it part time or full time, is it by duration of unemployment there is a lot of reasons. Are you on temporarily layoff . Employed but not working for other reasons . These are insights we can gain within the Household Survey. We paid a lot of attention in march ahead of that kind of commentary so if a quarter of those people in march expected to come back, it would be good news if that number increased or bad news maybe if it dropped off a cliff . What would end up happening, rates would go up and that share, even if it is 25 the share is the same. A portion we have seen and youll have an indication that theyll be called back keeping an eye on that it will give us insight into the composition of the really high unemployment number. Thank you i learned something from that. Thank you for taking time with us this morning. Coming up, bad news from the real estate world and what it could mean for the broader u. S. Economy. First, some images of the Pandemic Impact yesterday from all across america when we come back our members understand social distancing. Being prepared and overcoming challenges. Usaa has been standing with them for nearly a hundred years. And well be here to serve you for a hundred more. Find a stock basedtech. On your interests and well be here to serve you for a hundred more. Or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. Welcome back to squawk box. New york city is the nations largest Real Estate Market the pandemic has caused a number of big deals to go bust. Robert frank joins us now with todays executive edge good morning, andrew. Manhattan Real Estate Market is basically frozen right now with a record low number of sales and contracts. Only one deal in the past week for over 4 million. The last time that happened was february 2009. You had contracts signed before the lockdown being broken or renegotiated we had over 100 contracts canceled in early march. 67 contracts canceled in march and 43 in april. Far more common are contracts that renegotiated. The average price cut to renegotiate a deal right now are between 10 to 15 that means the price cuts for new buyers Going Forward will be even birg. That means 15 or 20 more. The big problem right now is the lack of showings or listings new listings down over 70 as sellers wait for the lockdown to ease showings to start again, which we cant really have now guys, back to you. Robert, thank you very much any word on how long they think this is going to last . Is this more permanent or temporary . There is no price discovery people are fleeing we have no price discovery. Thats why looking at these deals are the only prices we have right now those are down 10 to 15 pus probably when things reopen. Until we get price stability or visibility, sellers wont list and buyers wont buy thank you when we come back, fed funds futures are trading like Interest Rates are going negative well tell investors what you need to know when squawk box comes right back these days, its anything but business as usual. Thats why working together is more important than ever. At t is committed to keeping you connected. So you can keep your patients cared for. Your customers served. Your students inspired. And your employees closer than ever. Our network is resilient. Our people are strong. Our job is to keep your business connected. Its what weve always done. Its what well always do. Good morning welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc u. S. Equity futures at this hour just a little ways about two hours away from. Big jobs number. It looks like the dow is going to open up higher. Will get a bad jobs number but people looking into that oil moving higher. Dow up about 300 points. The dow about 39 points higher and the nasdaq about 112 points higher thanks, we are going to continue along after initial jobless claims joining us now to talk bonds in the hopes of economic reopening. Fixed income strategist and ill talk to mike santoli a little about the stock market nice we are talking to china it is nice hard to believe with the rancor were seeing but it is about business it reminds me of g1. It is business, sonny. Lets hope this doesnt mess up this trade thing thats it. Isnt it i dont think alphabet is up a percent and a half the immediate moment four or five days in a row will pop up in the morning and try to find a way later in the day it is not just ship shape it is it is claberring. It is going up regardless where you set the camera it is true. You point out that stock market, even though these job numbers keep hitting, the stock market has been going higher the bond market sees it as sort of a damper but the stock market is still the bond market doesnt just rip roar higher you think both markets are looking through this to when things can reopen . Thanks, joe i think the only difference is that the bond market sees it slower as opposed to the equity market which will see it faster and sooner i dont think there are a whole lot of differences, just the time period. Can you see that in the day to day trading. That low market has driven the bond that is lower than it was in february in the preprice period. Where i see it is that there is an upside yield move that will happen in the higher yield market and that will happen sooner. As a bond guy, you are partial. You believe the bonds are right. You point out you are not an epidemiologist you point out as we were talking about, people want to get cabin fever and want to get out too soon and that can have a bad outcome if people get out too early. You wonder about the markets thats not taking that into account . If i honestly speak to you, i dont know what makes the equity market youve never done that before you dont speak honestly to us do what you normally do. Let me be honest with you okay what do you mean what im saying, i think the bond market typically is looking for the next problem ahead while it sees the recovering and the opening as good things could see problems opening up too soon and people getting sick. That pricing going back and forth has gotten to another period for that reason, they are not quite sold that this reopening is going to go well and we are opening back up with some strains on the system. When you take 30 plus Million People out of the labor looks like we lost kevin. Mike, i was thinking about when you were talking about alphabet and i was thinking about the nasdaq up for the year. We had blankfein on yesterday. We didntget to talk to him about how he said technology has really risen to a preeminent place in our lives could you imagine how we would be dealing with this without zoom or ordering on line think if this had hit 20 years ago, it would be totally different. Im wondering because technology is so representative, i cant believe anything would be up for the year though. Here is the thing it is not just that weve been using technology more. The businesses that dominate the nasdaq in technology are duopolys these massively dominant businesses