Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240713 : v

CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report July 13, 2024

Now. Thats a gain of better than 800 points, 2950 a key level for the s p, were slightly above that with a gain of 3 . And the nasdaq, where so much strength has been of late, 2. 3 higher, 9230, russell 2,000 having a big day as well kevin oleary, 2950, key level on the s p were all the way back to where we were in early march and you, my friend, you say youre growing more bullish. Yes, i am i listened to what the fed says and they have an unlimited pocketbook they made it clear they are going to overcompensate, scott, and youre starting to see it happen right now. The beneficiary of this will be issues of credit, we issued a trillion dollars worth of investment rate credit so far this year. Spreads have tightened you know i watch the etf market like a hawk. The fed has only done a few hundred Million Dollars of purchasing it is job owning that is getting it going this is an extraordinary time. If youre an investor and missed days like today, youre mitts g i missing 30 , 40 , 50 of the returns. We get crazy days over the weekend. I watched that interview, i said, my goodness, this guy is going to come across as a genius by the time this is over he talks such a quiet tone story, does very little with the dollars, actually. This buying of junk debt, supporting equities, hes done basically nothing. Hes job owned his way to this place. Hes completely opened up the credit markets, enhancing Balance Sheets and ov overcompensating eke quie ining is it really that easy . Well, to kevins when you listen to to kevins point, scott, if you listen to johnny fine in the last 20 minutes on the network talk about what is going on in the debt markets, what chairman powell has enabled his companies, even like boeing to Access Capital they otherwise would not be able to access in this stressed environment. So you got companies that are able to rebuild their Balance Sheets and i think thats lending a very supportive tone but as it relates to the equity market, the equity market continues over the period of six weeks to provide investors and traders an opportunity where you are experiencing some form of a selloff, like we had last week, and you have the opportunity to take advantage of quality on sale now, coming into today, there are many people that are going to suggest to you given the strength of this rally that the right move to be making in the markets is to sell your positions. I do not believe thats the right move at all. I agree with what kevins assessment is. Momentum right here is very positive, were about to take out the april 29th high. We have got participation beyond Megacap Technology and i would urge investors and traders to stay with us as the market pushes towards 3,000 i think thats the target. I go back to what nelson peltz told us the other day. To your points, joe, about quality being on sale, he told us he put new money to work in the market now, we dont know what the positions are, but, you know, you will go ahead and make an assumption there of some sort of size he doesnt normally buy little tiny positions in things so he told us he was optimistic on this country, he was betting on the positive coming out of this, he put money to work by the way, hes had a pretty good history of making good calls in the markets as well december 18 he did another one on this network. Shannon, you have optimism from people like nelson peltz coming into a week like this, we get the moderna news, it is early, but powell underscoring the point there is no limit to what we can do. That is i will do whatever it takes to keep this thing from completely falling apart right and the betting on america, you know, is really a betting a bet on free or cheap money so the feds essentially providing cheap money. The u. S. Government through its fiscal stimulus is providing essentially free money to businesses, albeit it has been difficult for all businesses to access that. And i think the moderna news is taking what has been fear and loathing of this rally out of the market today if you look at some of the comments from powell yesterday, he acknowledged that while he expects a second half recovery, he does believe that, you know, if we had go back to the mandates that we have been living under for the month of april, that that would create economic dislocation and he was concerned about that and so if we get, you know, strength of the market on a potential vaccine, if we start to see a shift here towards the belief that we really will continue to back stop through monetary and fiscal policy the u. S. Economy, you know, i think one of the other things i want to know here is that the fear from an institutional perspective, if it goes the other way if youre an institutional investor, and it goes the other way an we start to see a decline in the market or reacceleration of cases, youre concerned about the fact that, hey, listen, we lost 36 million jobs how could you be investing into that today, i dont think thats a sentiment. I think this momentum trade is going to continue this week. So thats an interesting thought, pete. The momentum trade is going to continue this week im wondering whether the action youre seeing in parts of the market today suggest that, okay, now finally you can buy some value names, if we try and get tactical for our viewers and think that, well, the momentum names are the ones who got us here, now if there is more positive news coming out that maybe it is finally a time for value. There is a conversation on the street today, wells fargo and our view is this created a major opportunity in value names, i was going to ask you if you think it is time to take some profits in some of the big momentum faang names, up tremendously since the march 23rd low yeah. I think it is a time to take some of the profits, scott, and some of the not necessarily the faang names, but actually the names that have been the pandemic virus names and i think the explosive moves we have seen out of many of those various names, i think it might be time to loosen up on some of those. I did a lot of different trading and i think well talk about that later in terms of a lot of the different options where i was in names that are the crazy names, they have pes that dont even exist because theyre so off the charts and i think it was time to sort of pull that plug but i would have to add Something Else im listening to everybody and theyre talking about powell i do not agree at all. I think the powell yesterday on 6 0 minutes and all the rest that we heard, we know that we already knew the fed was at was going to be our back stop they have been there, they told us theyre going to be there and were up about 200 points. I sit here and look and i see that moderna news and that was where we got the explosive move out of this. Up 200 points. When we got that news, up 600 points before you could blink. That was really i think that was based, scott, on the idea that, hey, look, if we got a vaccine, as early as it is, and, by the way, it is early, if anybody understands how this whole process works, you have phase one, phase two, phase three and then got to get approval, theyll accelerate that but it is very, very early, but the very early sentiment is this could be it. And because of that, thats whats exploding the markets now and thats why people are buying names they wouldnt have bought based upon the pandemic until they heard this news today so i think youve got to be very cautious as you move forward because at any moment somebody could come across and say, well, you know, but in phase two this happened or in phase three this happened you just have to understand, it is good to be excited, but at the same time, im not trying to throw any water on the fire right now at all im just saying i think that was the impetus of this monster move to the upside, and i think if thats the move, youve got to keep a very close eye on moderna going forward. No doubt about that well talk to steve wise in a bit who will tell us what hes doing with his moderna trade it is important to hear from him on a day like this im looking at my sheet here of cramers covid index, up tremendously this year names like pfizer and gilead, alphabet, amazon, apple, roku, spotify, costco. We talked about these names last week with jim. Is it time to take some money out of those kinds of names, kevin oleary, and put it to work in some of the more cyclically benefited stocks, industrials and, look, i mean, some travel names today are up tremendously hospital names are doing quite well these laggards, are they going to get their day now you know, i dont think it is time to take money out of those names. This idea that, you know, if we wave a magic wand and moderna news gives us the virus control we wanted and all of a sudden we can inoculate the entire population doesnt change the fact that a whole generation of people that were not using ecommerce 90 days ago are now very proficient at it, and so Companies Like the docusigns and the shopifies and everything that is accommodating remote work at home and all of these including microsoft and all the licenses that are going on digitizing america as i call america 2. 0, that trend, that genie is out of the bottle we came out of this thing online and 90 days later over 20 that was supposed to take three, four years it happened in a matter of months these companies are the backbone of that digitization i would not sell their sell into this, i dont, you know, whether we get this virus under control in the next 12 months, 18 months, 24 months, the economy is fundamentally changed. And i still i still believe that as a result of this move toward digitization, the major beneficiaries remain the same. I know the pes are crazy but you talk to anybody in these companies, theyre working 24 hours a day. Look at these names, look at these travel names as were cycling through some of the stocks that are leading today. These are unbelievable gains in some of these hospitality stocks were looking back on your screen right now what are we telling people to do with these today to buy into this strength, to sell some of these names. 16, 17, 18 . This is on moderna clearly. If you think were going to have an accelerated time frame and legitima legitimate prospect for a vaccine in that accelerated time frame, do you want to buy the stocks today and take the money you otherwise would have put in the ones you have been playing, these big tech ones and play some of these now . I wont do that and i will say one thing about moderna, besides just modernas big announcement on eight patients or whatever it was, what it tells everybody and the reason i believe pete is right about the move is that the science has accelerated so much in terms of how these new, you know, treatments are developed in the last decade, we probably got a five, ten fold acceleration it will not just be one company that comes across this potential solution what this tells me is that since sars, 11 years go, science can win this in a compressed time frame. My concern about, you know, being in the lockdown perpetually, it was only a couple of weeks ago people were talking about travel and leisure going to zero, were not talking about that today anymore sentiment changes very quickly once new science proves something true very right. Youre very right. Im looking at a tweet from dr. Gottlieb, right, who says as part of a tweet, there is some suggestion vaccines could protect us from bad symptoms the good news is there is now accumulating evidence he says across multiple platforms, products, that we should get a vaccine. Thats a level of optimism when you have somebody like that saying there is mounting evidence that were going to get a vaccine, there is hope and promise, but if you have belief, real belief that youre going to have a product and on an accelerated time frame, thats why youre seeing a stock market do what it has been doing on optimism and hope and now maybe it is taking another step forward on that. Shannon, some of these names i read off to you. The ones that have ripped that people may have been listening to the program and buying on the way up, the rokus, the beyond meats, the teledocs, some of these other healthcare names, the walmarts what do you do with those today . I think there is two different baskets. One, i think healthcare was an opportunity coming into the virus crisis and i think that it was an understated opportunity, i think that people were overly focused on the potential threat of a Progressive Democratic candidate. I think that we just happened to see that rally in healthcare pulled forward and i think thats going to continue i think some of the other names you need to be careful about extrapolating, you know, additional use over the course of the next six to 12 months theyre talking about a name like teledoc or talking about some of the travel names you just discussed, scott, you need to think about what the opportunity cost is and holding those over the next 6 to 12 months if you have the opportunity to buy some of these lower valuation stocks that are available. So if you do believe that there is going to be a cyclical rebound, you dont have to make a call on how many of us are going to be working from home, 12, 18, 24 months from now you can actually look at it in terms of what is your belief about the economy, what do you think this vaccine gives us, do you think it takes the threat of somebody not going on a cruise off the table or is there going to be a plateau there and still other opportunities . So i think it is weighing what the market is giving you, with your longterm trends over the next 12 to 18 months and i think healthcare is squarely in the middle of a secretarier th sector that it continue to thrive in both of those scenarios. Lets bring in another guest today who says there is about to be a big reversal. Jonathan ckrinsky. Good to have you back. What leads you to believe there is going to be this big reversal happening or some momentum pulling back and then money going into the value trade yes, thank you. So i think the timing of the moderna news is interesting. We think the fire was already set and that is the match that ignited things we go back to wednesday of last week, we put out a note looking at the banks relative to the nasdaq kind of a proxy for the whole growth value, work from home, you know, real economy type of trade. And the banks and the nasdaq as of last wednesday was that the widest diversion we have seen since 2009 only seen it twice in last three decades, once was at the march 2000 peak of the nasdaq and once at the march 2009 lows the setup was there for a massive reversal in the momentum we have seen and, you know, that stems from a couple of Different Things it is sentiment, right it is positioning. And it is it is whats already taken place, we try to look for where the puck is going, not where it has been and we think the next significant move is an online in this momentum and what were seeing today i think is just the start of that. But if you, if youre expecting a bounce in the cruise lines and airlines, casinos, and hotels, you need the moderna news and other news like it to continue to progress that trade is not going to work just on technicals alone or whatever the setup was you dont get the kind of move, jonathan, authat youre seeing those stocks without moderna. No, thats certainly fair but the setup was there and if you think about, you know, whats taken place in some of these stocks, the capitulation, buffett out of the airlines, selling financials, there has been just a complete just despair in some of the names i think if you look at the positioning, look at setup, thats really what were trying it highlight in our note this morning. And before the news came out, the setup was there. If youre trading tactically, trading on a time frame that is, you know, one to six weeks, which a lot of clients are, i think thats where the opportunity is if youre we talk about this on the show all the time, what is your time frame, if youre a longer term investor, the secular trends that are in play, i think are probably going to persist and i agree with one of the prior guests, healthcare is an area that was actually structurally or secularly attractive before the pandemic i think it will continue to be after. So really got to Pay Attention to what is your time frame, what are you trying to achieve, but we think on a tactical basis, regardless of the news that comes out, the setup is there for more momentum reversion here. Interesting jonathan, i appreciate you calling in ill kick it around with the gang now well talk to you soon stay well. Thats Jonathan Krinsky of baycrest what do you think of this call the setup was there. It has been ignited and it has staying power. Okay, well, lets talk about, first of all, prior to the setup. Prior to the setup it was all about Megacap Technology if i take the big five Megacap Technology names from microsoft up in the Second Quarter 17 , to facebook which is up 27 , they have been carrying the market up until last week. What jonathan is talking about, i agree, but lets be clear, that does not mean you sell your Megacap Technology out of your portfolio. Lets understand something amazon sits less than 2 away from its all time high im not understanding why it is so many people are suggesting today that there is the time to move out of Megacap Technology what there is time to do is to look at value as he is defining, jonathan, and go after specific quality names. In financials, yes, you had a turn last week you had an opportunity to buy jpmorgan, or to pick up a blackstone thats the right trade there are specific names as it relates to the covid contagion stocks, the laggards as i would call them, that are clearly making a reversal. Fedex presents an opportunity here and i think marriott presents an opportunity. I dont think lets frame it in a different way, put a finer point on it, joe. If we say, okay, were not we dont have to tell people, okay, maybe you should sell or take some profits in some of the megacap tech names, but if you are feeling more opportunistic in the stock market right now, relative to where you were a week ago, any fresh money you put to work should not go in those areas, and it should look into the areas that youre talking about and that krinsky is talking about doesnt have to necessarily be a sell and buy, it can be a new money to work, but in a place where you may not have looked before i would say a blend of the two, scott i would say if you give me 100, i would spread it equally. I would make sure im still putting that 50 towards Megacap Technology, because i think the performance will be there and the fundamentals will be there going forward. With that other 50, as i said, i want to focus on the quality names like even lets say American Express and financia

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