Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240713 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 13, 2024

All about the big game of chicken that is breaking out in china, but first, what is the real read on retail . The Group Holding strong as we wrap the major week of earnings and we could dash hopes of any robust retail rebound and another 2. 4 million americans filing for unemployment last week and while we all knew that the number would be awful, it may not be telling the whole story. The total claims exclude hundreds of thousands of selfemployed economy workers, as well. So with millions of americans and millions of consumers out of work, which retailers are best positioned for this road ahead guy. Hi, mel hi, guy i feel it necessary to say hi so i wont see you so which retailers are best suited in this environment and thats a great question and something well talk about and i know steve will talk about costco correctly and karen had thoughts on t. J. Maxx, but the one i keep coming back to is Dollar General and i think Goldman Sachs just initiated the name with the 202 price target and people will knock them on valuation and this is a stock that slow and steady wins the race walmart was the target, as well and if you look at those two names have traded since earnings its a tad disappointing and you have walmart trading to the previous alltime high and seemingly failing similar, although the target didnt get that high and target is over, as well and thats concerning and the name for me and others im sure will have other names will be Dollar General, and d. G i think a lot of questions viewers will have is there are some retailers that were absolutely taken to the wood shed during this pandemic and im thinking of macys and the traffic at the reopened stores was moderately better than anticipated even though they warned of a huge loss thats coming in the quarter. So tim, how do you navigate the sector when you have so many and youre going have so many of these giant outsized bounces simply because things look so bleak and things are better than bleak. For now, names like macys and even the gap stores and to some extent l brands and these were stories coming into covid19 and these are stories that one, you always have to be looking at the Balance Sheet and macys is a name where we spent a lot of money talking about the parts and the real estate and at some point you derive some Intrinsic Value about the core franchise or not i think in the case of macys it is a case where the assets are still valuable even if the core business is going through a dangerous time and it is certainly not going to get better l brands up almost 20 today on the fact that theyll be closing 250 Victorias Secret Stores and the reason why thats good news is because alice had felt that the best thing they can do is down sized the entire company and they forced retailers to do that faster and aggressively than they would, and thats the opportunity it seems to me, what weve seen is the dash across retail and im not sure thats something that you want to chase the ones that have been defensive are the names like walmart and its boast days for this rally ary behind it, but the largest retailers in the world, arguably, when you talk about the labor market and the issues and the pull forward multiare multiple, i think its clear that i dont love it either. Yes thats absolutely the opportunity and that is the wave of the future, grasso, but at the same time thats the lowest margin way of doing business as opposed to a physical store. You are winning on that front, but losing on the margin front i hate to make it as simple as have and have notes the ones that were weak and theyve been exacerbated when you look at a pandemic so the macys and the kohls stores and macys is down 68 with a Short Interest of 38 i wouldnt dive into that, but you can see the up days as you had mentioned before kohls stores down 64 with the shortage of 16 . So these are names that maybe could have blips in the recovery because positioning was just too offsides, but i dont know how they are going to survive. I dont know that kohls stores that are tremendously based on incentives and giving away product is going survive, but i will tell you along with karen, tjx or target or even ross stores, i think the discounters are going to have their hand at any of the goods that were ordered. Theyre just going to pick a price and theyre going to get whatever they want so if you think that costco, amazon or target are overpriced here and then they go with the tjx or ross stores and something that you think is going survive because i dont know about macys and i dont know about kohls karen, tjx is a great trade and up 15 today what do you like about the story . Tim was mentioning being brudent and how companibru prudent and how theyre spending their money. Tjx is being prudent another way. Tjx, the quarter was awful, really bad and it wasnt about the quarter. Its about what theyre seeing Going Forward. Some of them are up over last year which is kind of amazing, but they did talk about suspending their buyback and also cutting their dividend, and i think that a lot of companies should be doing that they get kind of a free pass to cutting their dividend and everyone and now if theres any question ask they should suspend the dividend if theyre going to furlough employees which tjx did and they hope its temporarily and it very well may be, thenpaying a dividend while furloughing employees might not be the best optics and this is a tremendous company and it was nowhere near its highs. Unlike walmart and target which were near its highs which made the bar very high for earnings, they still traded off in the face of those very tough earnings this story is a little bit different. It is still below its highs and as steve said the other part of their business is what did they pay for their goods, and this is from heaven for them this may be the best pricing theyve had since 08. All of the maxxinistas like a pete najarian. Tjx is up 50 on the week and its up today. Lets bring in one of the nations most experienced retail executives, allen questrom, and Neiman Marcus and a former walmart board member and he joins us on the phone. Nice to be with you. How do you look at this retail environment and karen was mentioning stocks are close to 52week highs and walmart, for instance, is only off 6. 3 from its 52week high and targets only down 5 from its high and yet we have an economy which is in shambles and consumers which are out of work and a historic Unemployment Rate and does this jive with you with how investors are seeing the stock and how the economy really is . It does jive because first of all, both are in the grocery business and both have very good ecommerce business particularly walmart and target it has put a lot of money into their ecommerce and upgrading their stores i think both are very wellrun companies and theyve done things in the past to protect them in the future and because they have such a big percentage of their business, and i think 55 is in the grocery business and target has gotten into the grocery business, that keeps customers coming in on a weekly basis so they keep people coming in and theyve had the benefit over the last couple of months of having their stores open and everybody else was closed and theyve had other things in their stores other than groceries and thats been a huge plus for them. Other Companies Like costco i think is another Great Company although last month was a little tough and that is a company thats consistently, consistently come up with comps, too, because they give great value to the customer. You heard a little bit on tjx, and another great story and tjx has had a long history of successes and theyve got great value and the whole story is about value and its a treasure hunt. A lot of these stores they have a lot of carryover merchandise from the Spring Season so theyll all be on spring sales and that will be tough, but over the long term, tj maxx has been a Successful Company in finding value in the market the customer is looking for value. And it has day to day value. You have touched on a consumer in various demographics and all levels of consumer out there. So if you had to force to choose four stocks that you think will do well in the postpandemic world, what would they be . Well, postpandemic world, long term i believe the walmarts, the target, the costcos and lowes and those will be very, very good because there is a combination in the case of walmart and target and food and other areas and the ecommerce particularly in the first to walmart and target and i think because theyve been always upgrading their assortments and upgrading their ability to execute their business i think it makes them a plus tj maxx is long term because they know how to find value for the customer and i think the customer is obviously very concerned with it. When you have 40 Million People unemployed it will be a difficult time to figure out where theyll go and until you get people back in the workforce there will be less money available to buy and who is giving the best deal best buy is another one. They had their Stores Closed because their business is down, and theyve done a good job of serving the customer thats in an important category and their stores suffered which i disagree with them not opening, but the stores that had their stores open with electronics did very, very well. You emphasize long term and yes, thats the question that i asked you, allen it sounds like you actually have a vision of what the short term may look like and which retailers might do well in the short term so in this pandemic world that we live in, is there a difference between the stocks you have picked for now versus the ones for the long term the ones for the short term its going to be the necessities. Obviously theyll be most important thing that people want to buy because if you have a limited amount of money its what people will buy discretionary because think about it, where will i wear my clothes and ill be home and thats an issue in terms of people having restrooms open and places to go and be dressed up and that will be a little longer term it is not something that is going to happen overnight and so its very difficult to say where these were all going to be i dont think the macys will go out of business or neimanmarcus, and there were stores that did poorly before this happened and the chance of them surviving are none, quite frankly and it didnt help when theyre not doing well already and i think many of those stores are long, too. Those are companies that had fundamentals before and theyre short term and long term and necessities are certainly essential. Allen, always good to speak with you stay healthy. Thanks, you, too Karen Finerman, you and i have had ult in multiple convers about how it will be difficult to wear proper pants im in the office, but when working from home, how difficult it would be to actually put on a pair of slacks, if you will, tailored pants as opposed to yoga pants or sweats exactly. Lulu lemon is another one. Its expensive and its not just a great retailer and its an actual covid winner. I do resent having to wear proper pants and if i werent doing this show right now i wouldnt have a sweater on id just have a sweatshirt and that would be my outfit all the time so i thought it was interesting though how allen was not optimistic on the Department Stores not that they would go out of business, but not as a stock to own he has a lot of experience in the space. Everybody here is wearing pants, by the way. I can safely i dont know, i mean i know them so well im going tim, youre raising your hand. Uhoh well, i theyre proper pants. Theyre proper pants, i promise. Okay. Of course. Just kidding. Kidding. Bad joke not funny. One wall street firm makes a big call in the future of the company and should you get onboard with this stock and more virus vaccine news astrazeneca receives funding for its covid19 vaccine and well break down what it means for the pharma giant and an earnings alert for two afterhours ve d ats driving the action well have details and much more after this yes. The first word to any adventure. But when allergies and congestion strike, take allegrad. A nondrowsy antihistamine plus a powerful decongestant. So you can always say yes to putting your true colors on display. Say yes to allegrad. Truly transformative sleep. So, no more tossing and turning. Because only tempurpedic adapts and responds to your body. So you get deep, uninterrupted sleep. During the tempurpedic summer of sleep, all tempurpedic mattresses are on sale during the tempurpedic summer of sleep, there are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Welcome back to fast money. We have a pair of earnings alerts for you shares of number vidia anvidia l alto we kick things off with josh lipton and nvidia. Josh melissa, i caught up with hans over at rosenblatt. I just wanted his take on the quarter. He rates nvidia a buy and executing well in a tough environment, gaming was down 10 sequentially and a bit better than expected and this is a slow are period for that period and on the other hand we know there are people at home searching for entertainment and it was pointed out better than expected and it is up 18 sequentially and thats one reason the segment investors are piled into the name and the outlook is slightly better than expected and 3. 65 billion and his bottom line remains a solid investment proposition and he argues for longterm investors. As for the guidance, 3. 65 billion and you heard hans also mention malinox and it closed that acquisition and its a High Performance networking chip company and basic terms that connects servers together and a lot of the analysts who cover the name were excited about that acquisition and also remember the stock headed into this print and nvidia had surged 50 year to date and it was the best performer in the s p tech sector and this kicks off at 5 30 eastern melissa, back to you josh lipton with the latest on nvidia and steve grasso, youve been in and out of this name over time. What do you make now the pushback will be the price and valuation on this one of gpu, gaming, they derive 85 of their revenue, and this one, no matter how you slice it they blow away amd and thats the one that most people say is their closest competitor and they blow away amd on Gross Margins and on net margins. Theyre more on par with intel, but you have to tell me the way the value and growth game is going to play out. So far growth has one, so id still bet on nvidia Going Forward, but if we see rotation into value, thats where intel will probably steal the thunder even though nvidia is where the growth and tech guys will pile into looking for beta and it is up 50 for the year. If it was the rotation out of growth and slipping to intel, but would you rather myself out of the three its n vitdia, and it will be amd. Would you rather . Tim, what do you say . That was impressive look, i think on nvidia, the 100 move off the lows and this is one of the great trading stocks we talk about on fast money and its had 80, plus or minus 80 moves since october 2018 and i was just counting, obviously and when you think about data center and hyperscale cloud, this is a very exciting part of the business and this is the part that i was talking about, quite healthy yes, gaming is critical and april is a soft time for the gaming revenue stream. So, look, i love nvidia. I dont love it here and i think youll get your shot to buy this back it looks like its topping and its been kind of rounding around this level and i think you can get it cheaper. Lets move on to palo alto shares of the Cybersecurity Company going higher and lets get to don chu at headquarters with the latest. It is the trifecta, melissa the Cybersecurity Firm beat on profits and they also beat on revenues and unlike other companies that have withdrawn guidance, they are giving guidance not just for the Current Quarter, but for the full year, as well and some of that guidance especially on this Current Quarter is giving some investors reasons to cheer it does come in stronger than expectations in terms of revenue and billings growth and theyre in the middle of the q and a portion of the Conference Call and i just want to pull a couple of quotes that we heard so far from the ceo and other executives there they say that they expect the pandemic to last around 12 to 18 months before the customers that they have return to a new normal they will see new businesses emerge which have not yet envision by future successes and again, a reason for the bullish move there this will drive the need for increased cloud beneficiary and the fact that people are staying at home and working at home. The good news here is i think the worst is over. I think were slowly building become to an economic recovery, and it is how they cree ate these technological opportunities. For a company like palo alto, it could be seen as a beneficiary as more people stay and work from home that need cybersecurity. Don chu, they have the trend going for them in terms of working from home and issuing guidance of any sort, guy, let alone strong guidance for the next quarter, and thats pretty impressive next quarter is pretty impressive palo alto is a Gold Standard in this space and weve talked and operating margins came in 16. 5 . The street was 13 1 2 or so. So in normal times this is a remarkable quarter and even more so given the environment we find ourselves in the one problem with the stock its had trouble at 250 on probably three different occasions, and i think well get through it this time on the upside, but i would understand if you took profits. I who would go through the 250 level, but if you wanted to do it its not a bad idea. Karen, thoughts on cybersecurity . Obviously, you can see why its important with everyone being remote and holding desk

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