Chip botox straight ahead and we start with the rorschach test. Which did you see today . The dow closing at its highest level since march 10th and vaccine hopes with stills and stocks closing near session lows and the relationship 500 failing to hold its 200day moving average or guy adami, how do you interpret the ink blot being that i cant see it, is that the guy from welcome back cotter, mel or no, that rorschach test guy i think were having problems with guys audio tim seymour, well go to you on this which ink blot did you see today . I actually heard guy and he made a bad joke of welcome back to cotter. It was closing near march highs and i think we have a case where the reopening has allowed people to look at industrial and call them value stocks, but the ones that were the most beaten up and to begin to assess what schedules are going to look like for airlines out through kind of early to midsummer. We have no idea, but we also have some sense that the worst case has been largely priced in for a lot of the Big Industrial names. A gm had a big breakout day and then you had the banks which i know well spend some more time on and some sense between where the yield curve is at its worst and that the consumer may be better is part of that rally and maybe the best part of the rally, frankly was in some of the beaten up Retail Stocks and some of the folks being left for dead, maybe they dont make a sustainable rally and they make for a sense of catchup, that if you take a look at how the market performed it wasnt growth it was value and that was something people wanted to see so my glass is rorschach or rorschach, whatever this is. You guys know the rorschach test, right . You show the person an ink blot. You ask them what they see and it reveals their, mobile state and perhaps traits about their personality, dan nathan, i have a feeling i know which ink blot you see just knowing you for so long, but go ahead what did you make of the rally today . Really unimpressive when tim just points to those groups that rallied or that closed decently today when you are thinking about retailers and youre thinking about industrials and youre thinking about these transports and the banks, these are some of the hardest groups and i would say that the banks are probably the highest quality of all of those and the rally was the most impressive and i dont think you can say if you look at maga and the nasdaq in general closing down 2 from the morning highs that thats the most disappointing thing given their outperformance, but i will say this, if you are relying on the back half of this year in early 2021 you are not paying attention to whats going on one in five workers are unemployed right now and theyre benefiting a lot of them from 600 a week from Unemployment Benefits and this is not a consumer and i dont care if its coming back in a meaningful way and theyll go north of 20 unemployment to possibly 10 thats the floor in the back half of this year and probably the floor for much of 2021, double the lows where we were just four or five months ago i just do not see the consumer coming back in a meaningful way. I see new and different jobs going away in the next year. I say this with no glee. Its just sad that the stock market is just dislocated from that economic reality. Karen, what did you make of the action today. I i understand and share dans dislocation except for the fed that the fed has sort of told us it would be there and it wouldnt be shocking if once the money runs out if they would reload again we have a lot of tools left and theyre not done i do think well also see congress do something, some sort of stimulus, as well so if you think that those government, the fed and government can get out of the way of the Business Cycle which i do kind of believe then i reluctantly say this rally kind of makes sense if you put on top of that you see just tons of pictures over the weekend and mem olial day and the consumer has been let free, right . How many places did you see that they were full or very busy and the consumer wants to be out there and wants to spend and at the moment even if theyre not employed they still have income. So for the moment, i think were going to continue to see growth, albeit off of a horrific low horrific low, but i wouldnt short this market down here. Some of the retail stuff will start to see better and well have more clarity when they report earnings and i think ralph lauren reports tomorrow and the stocks probably up 15 in the last few trading sessions so the bars gotten a lot higher for them, but lets see how bad it actually is, and as you know, and well get to it and long banks and im bullish banks. I think you have embroidered on a sampler dont bet against a consumer against the ink blot that you have as well in your home. What do you make of the consumer at this point and if you cannot bank on a consumer who will be opening up their wallets in the coming months, should we be pessimistic about this market rally . Well, you know, 36 Million People unemployed before anybody ever heard of the coronavirus, Consumer Debt to gdp was north of 52 which is historic levels. You can talk about the consumers ability to spend, but it doesnt mean you should be spending and i said it a hundred different times, never bet against the consumers, should they be spending is another question in and of itself. I was shocked because i thought we would fail in the s p and i think the market had every potential piece of good news and being looking past whats right in front of them and we have this reopening and we dont know whats going to happen and in terms of the market the market is more expensive now, significantly, by the way, than it was when the s p 500 is making alltime highs and thats assuming you have 130 worth of earnings which i dont think well get anywhere near now. The argument is you have to write off this year and from will be some sort of recovery in 2021 maybe, but i still think that too much optimism is being priced into this market right now. Heres a hypothetical question and ill go to tim seymour on this. Weve been rallying on the hopes of a vaccine and hopes of a treatment. What happens if tomorrow a company said we have a vaccine that is going to be approved by the fda and we are going to start distribution of this vaccine and injecting people is that a sell the news event . I mean, are i guess the question is are we in the stage right now where its buy the rumor, the rumor of the cure, of the treatment and if we do get a vaccine thats sell the news no. Its not sell the news because there are a number of companies that really were ive used this metaphor and were watching an hour glass and watching the sand tick through to kind of count how much or how many months they have left of cash flow i actually dont think its an entirely sell the moment i do think the other thing we havent mentioned so far early in the show is the china factor which guy has brought up early we spend a lot of time on this show last week talking about some major issue for the market because its a major issue for the economy and so i think there are Different Things that has the market moving around and in fact, closing on the lows was as much about china headlines than it was, hey, ken frazier of merck, highly, highly credible pharma man thats just not going to happen overnight. I think the market would like it and i dont think it will be time to sell the news. I do think there are a lot of places where, in fact, we built in the big fear factor, and i think a lot of that has rallied back especially in some of the big growth names i think they could actually give Something Back and i think we saw some of that today the things that were selling off most into the close and the things that underperformed was growth, and thats where you get a little bit of an exhale. No i dont think it sells on a vaccine. This market wants a vaccine. Karen, become to you before we get to the charts and carter. I agree i agree, and tim just touched on it, that rotation. That rotation will really start to go berserk, the one today, or it found some legs today if there were news of a vaccine all right the s p 500 as we mentioned failed to hold above the 3,000 level today. The chart master said something exceedingly rare just happened that really sounds like carter lets get to carter worth for more carter how exciting. Actually, that was the title of mondays report, and its about health care and the performance of midcap versus the index lets look at a chart of the s p and in a way this was a day for everyone bears can call out the big fade and basically closing on the low. The bulls can call it that theyre up again and what we do know is that the market stopped dead cold to the penny, in fact, at its 150day moving average and basically could never push higher from there. We also know its the same situation yes, the market is down 7 for the year and the median stock is down almost 14 and its still a party of just a few and that remains the problem. In any event, what is exceedingly rare is the health care midcap stocks and the s p midcap index so take a look at the first slide here the second slide ask it will show you the spread, the year to date spread and at no time has the history of the data been this wide where you have the sector and the health care being down up percent plus, minus and the index being down 14, 15. 2500 basis point spread. Take a look at the two charts that depict this the first chart is comparing the two lines and its the sector itself versus the index and the next shot, think s on a twoyear basis. One can say so what . When heres the thing when its happened in relation to the health care, where its up from Large Cap Health Care by as much as a thousand basis points. What happens is Going Forward its actually exceedingly bullish for midcap health care and remains bullish for large cap and theres a little bit of a catchup even though they still dont outperform men, and yet the market is tepid. So an interesting setup and something thats never happened before in terms of spread and something to be watched. The market is tepid does that mean that you should extrapolate that you believe in this rotation that you see the rally in banks today and industrials . Sure. Lets take a second on that. The hope is that the cyclicals come to life and that means the economy is better and people are bracing for risk what we know is people have expended a lot of energy in the Market Regional banks are up 40, 50 off the lows and so are certain signals and yet weve had a big move out of all of the stretch tech names and theyre back at former highs, and apple, microsoft and adobe. So at this point weve had quite a big move from some of th beaten up names and were the rotation really to take force, theres too much money in the big end of the market. If you have money coming out of the highfliers theres not enough sponges at the bottom of the market to absorb the money very vivid. Carter, thank you. Carter braxtonworth bay the way were having spotty particular tech issues so guys grayed out in the meantime, ill go to you, what do you think of carters thoughts and healthcare specifically health care is interesting. I think that spread is interesting and theres tremendous focus from so many different parts of the Investment Universe on the sector were pinning a lot of economic hopes on what the companies are able to do with therapies and vaccines and everyone is optimistic about it and that is well reflected in the stocks and i look at the ibb and thats the itf that tracks the Biotech Sector and i would say it got ahead of itself and it broke out to a new alltime high and theres a massive double top if you go back to 2015 and then theres probably a level where you can reload and buy that at 120 if youre playing with a lot of the catalysts that youll see play out over the next year, year and a half or so. Heres the thing, i think carter said this. I think there are a lot of different sectors and the broad market will be pricing in a lot of the bestcase news in the next six to 12 months and i dont see a panic to buy here especially if you see a rejection at a key technical level and i dont want to put too much emphasis on that and at the end of the day i think the things that will take us higher to his point will be the megacaps. Merck taking a major step forward in the efforts to combat the coronavirus and the latest on when we can expect a viable vaccine to hit the market and later, is this the end of the stay at home boom. The one stock that may be telling the tale of the tape fast money is back in two. I got an oriole here. Eh. Common bird. Ooh look over here something much better. There it is. Peacock, included with xfinity x1. Remarkable. Fascinating. Very. It streams tons of your favorite shows and movies, plus the latest in sports news and. Huh run the newest streaming app has landed on xfinity x1. Now thats. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Xfinity x1 just got even better with peacock premium included at no additional cost. No strings attached. Just say peacock into your voice remote to start watching today. We have breaking news out of washington Kayla Tausche has the latest kayla . Melissa, President Trump is taking questions from reporters after an event in the rose garden announcing the lowering of the cost of insulin for seniors under Medicare Part d, but President Trump was asked about the economy and specifically about his actions on china in the wake of that National Security law that china has introduced related to hong kong President Trump said its too early to talk about exactly what position the administration would take and how it would respond to that, but President Trump saying that stay tuned for the next couple of ways and that you would hear more on that by the end of the week. On the economy he said that next year is going to be one of the best years ever in the economy after what he is calling this transition to greatness comes fully into fruition. He acknowledges that the data has been and will continue to be bad in the nearterm, but that the Third Quarter and the Fourth Quarter will be a strong rebound, again, echoing his belief that there will be a vshaped recovery in the American Economy he has said this before and we will see this as the data bears out and President Trump as he is trying to lay the groundwork for his forthcoming election or campaign, rather, thats under way trying to signal that if you reelect him, melissa, that the economy will get even better than it was before the coronavirus. Back to you. Kayla, he was specifically talking about the economy and not the stock market caller well, he went on a riff, melissa, about a very many things to do with the economy and the stock market, but just continuing to hammer home the idea that he believes that once businesses start to reopen that the economy and the market will continue rebounding and that next year will be, in his word, the best year ever kale a thank you. Kayla tausche in washington. Guy adami, i go to you. Im not sure if you have thoughts about his prognostications, but i found much more interesting the teedzer that youll get an announcement about the u. S. Response to chinas actions in hong kong by the end of the week yeah, and its something and i apologize, my audio went down and im sorry. Tim mentioned and weve been talking about the situation with the chinese and now that the market and basically the highest that weve been in a couple of months and im sure thiscomes to the equation and im sure President Trump has things to play in terms of the rhetoric with the chinese and i dont think thats market positive and im glad you asked kayla that question because the chasm between the real economy and the stock market has probably never been wider and its going to continue to do so. So when i think when President Trump talks about the economy, hes really talking about the stock market because as we all remember, three and a half years ago he talked about the stock market being the report card for his administration its extraordinarily important to do well, but i think at this jufrn juncture he feels like he has wiggle room. Shares getting a pop in the fight against the coronavirus. Meg tirrell joins us with more hey, meg hey, mel. Merck announcing three different moves in the covid19 space and one its inlicensing an antiviral drug in phase one trials and also making deals on two different vaccine projects using technology that it says has been proven in other vaccines now they plan to start human Clinical Trials with themore advanced vaccine candidates putting that around june or july after several companies have already started human trials and we did talk to ken frazier, the ceo of merck about the timeliness we should expect and he was more cautious than weve heard of other ceos. Heres what he said. Well try approach this in a very responsible and also aggressive fashion so im not in a position today to say exactly what the time line will be we will move as quickly and as responsibly as we can. As you know, Clinical Trials take a long time and if youre going to immunize, a lot of people, millions, if not billions of people we will have to make sure you know exactly what that vaccine will do with people and you can essentially ensure the safety of people. Mel, of course, this an important announcement because merck has so much credibility in Vaccine Development and also so many resources we asked them how much theyre planning to spend here and how much theyre willing to spend and he said as much as it takes to get a vaccine back over to you im curious and im asking you to do a bit of tea leaf reading and did you take ken fraziers comments as a dig on the competition or a dig on some of the Smaller Companies that have never gotten a product across the finish line who are making bold promises in terms of timeliness i didnt take it as a dig i took it as sort of a more of a pride in merck and its history, but he did Say Something that was fascinating and sarah asked him about moderna and what theyre accomplishing and getting int