Business and you are looking at the incredible scene at the d casino in las vegas shortly after it reopened at midnight. The casino is absolutely packed and very few people are Wearing Masks and no social distancing lets bring in the journalist who shot this video. Mick akers was it as crowded as it looks in the video yeah, it was. That was taken nine minutes after they opened the doors an let people in so people were ready to fill in pretty quickly there. I wasnt expecting it to be that packed and that video is true to form what struck me when i saw this on twitter, i thought maybe this video got mixed up with prepandemic video of the d casino, but in fact, this is a scene that you have been witnessing all over the place. Youve been going up and down the strip all day long and to the airport, as well yeah. I was at mccaron airport and ive been going there every so often since the shutdown and its weird seeing that back and some other reporters are all around the city, and the bellagio reopened today and it had a pretty good crowd, the flamingo, caesars and some great crowds there, so people are obviously ready to get back to the gambling action in las vegas. Yeah. I want to show some of the video we have of the bellagio. Obviously, in some areas of the hotel there is social distancing taking place versus when they first opened the doors in the lobby, but later on you see video of lines, people waiting in lines and theyre on top of each other and theyre not not everybody is wearing a mask. Mick, are you surprised at the reopening that people arent necessarily following the rules to a tee on the very first day whats it going to be like in two weeks . Yeah, im surprised last night 15 to 20 of people had masks on all of the employees had masks on and customers, and i was surprised on thatend and socia distancing wasnt even a thing and they had dots on the ground and people werent adhering to that slot machines are supposed to be cut off every other one, and there was some locations where all of the seats were in there and there were ten people filling the whole entire station so i was surprised that it wasnt being followed to a tee, but youll see how it plays out over the weekend and see if there are complaints and adjustments being made. The d casino is not on the trip and have you seen the protocols being followed off the strip versus on strip . It seems a little more to the book on the strip. They took more precautions there, and their temperature scanners are a little bit more accurate and the one at the d were doing it on the wrist and people werent testing above 98 degrees. It looks like theyre advanced on those and they have plexiglas on the gaming tables and the slot machine wears and keeping space between people and sanitizing stations throughout, disinfecting and hightouch areas, and some of the Mgm Properties have hand washing stations on the floor so you dont have to go to the restroom to wash your hands and you can do it on the game floor. Mick, thanks for giving us a glimpse of vegas you might be wondering why we started with the video of las vegas because it encapsulate it is the hope and the fear surrounding the economy. The hope that the consumer will come back strong as we saw with the crowds at those casinos on opening day, but the fear, of course, is that the reopening could seed another wave of Coronavirus Infections and a second wave, if you will how do you trade this and are we sort of at a wait and see moment in this rally, guy, as we reopen we await the impact on the infection rate, et cetera . I believe its a wait and see, and tims about to kill me for saying this. The mets every year will opening day and there are more people in concessions and in the stands i told you you would kill me and just give me a second and then you can go from there my point is it makes sense if you saw the crowds on reopening. My sense is that it will somewhat wane. Ill tell you this, i know i dont have much of a memory, but march 20th happens to be a friday and as you know we do a truncated show, and i remember tim and i had the performance of wynn, and it was 35 low and closed higher on the day and we mentioned it was a good sign and since then weve been relatively positive on these casino stocks, but i think now it the time you pull the rip cord and take process. Credit suisse initiated the price target and that makes sense. I do think if youve enjoyed this run over the last couple of times, tim seymour, ill let you go ahead, you mets fan you it could be a sign. The casinos are like throwing big money at the dice at the craps table. You have this data, these videos and this assessment of las vegas coming back or not and it reminds me of what we talked about yesterday as it related to the poll of who was going to take the vaccine if given and who was just going go for it, and i think theres a sense of an inevitability of this virus until theres actually a vaccine and some sense by a lot of folks that we have to get on with it if you look at the economy and look at the data points weve had, theyre not green chutes. They are less bad. Its essentially the delta on where we are coming from is whats been getting people to feel better. If you look at the bond market and the treasury market and the move in the last three days. Weve had a 20 basis point move in the tenyear and we closed at 82, 83 basis points and nothing to get excited about, per se and these are tenweek highs and the bond market, more than the equity market has certainly traded in a very tight range and has been on some level really what people were waiting for im not telling you that we should be seeing yields move quickly higher, but when you look at the weaker dollar, the yields break out, the inflationary stuff that continues to trade and be the best part of the market whether youre investing in resources or shippers and rail, thats the part that i think is reflective of what this las vegas scene is telling you about the appetite for health risk in this country. In terms of confirming this move, and dan, im going to go to you because you have highlighted financials as being the worst chart in the markets and it signals all sorts of bad things weve had financials trade very well and can you say maybe theres something to this rally . Yeah, there is. Weve been talking about this rotation and look at what underperformed with megacap tech and it outperformed with banks and they liked that steepening yield curve im not convinced right now. I know theyre still down meaningfully from their january highs and the name like j. P. Morgan is an alltime high and q2, tim said this the data will be less bad. The data is historically horrible gdp now has q2, gdp down 54 or so you have 43 million americans that have filed for unemployment over the last three months or so those numbers will get better period over period and they will stay bad and depressed for a long time, so when i see videos like that from las vegas last night, they might have the same opposite effect, and you guys will talk about the woefull mets in week two, thats what they look like. All of the sports may come back and there are no people in the stands and there are the concession workers and i think when were thinking about the economy in the success half of 2020 and probably for the better part of 2021, we better start modeling what 10 unemployment looks like for a sustained period of time and just to refresh your memory, thats nearly three times what that 60year low print in unemployment was at 3. 5 in february, and i just think that the market right now is discounting a lot of good news on the reopening and a lot of good news about the vaccine and the speed of recovery. I dont buy it and listen, have at it the stock market is up 42 from those lows and youre telling me down 3 in the s p 500 year to date that that makes any sense given what we know about the road back . I dont buy it nine and a half minutes is the show and we have our first danism have at it i agree with you and take your point in terms of the chronically high unemployment that we are likely to see persist. We see this betting against the consumer and we saw the video and the tanker saying in South Carolina where things have reopened 80 , if the retail traffic was 80 of what it was precovid in the early days things like that make you think never bet against the consumer right i dont like to bet against the u. S. Consumer, specially when the fed is also there in the biggest way that weve ever seen in the history of the fed. So i agree that it seems incredibly odd that we are down 3 , 4 and were in the middle of a pandemic and depressionera unemployment, and i think the market is looking at the trajectory of earnings and not the absolute level of earnings and so im not looking to put new money to work here because i think so many things have moved so far, but i think that the bond move is important for banks, particularly and not just necessarily for their Net Interest Margin which will have a minimal effect in the short term, but i think for the sentiment about banks. Look at how poorly they were trading zero intrait Interest Rates or potentially negative Interest Rates and that was only two or three weeks ago, i think. And i think that for the moment is off the table i think well also see some more stimulus from the government so that can keep the fire going. I think theres also a little bit of adverse selection when you see videos like that one that the people who are the least afraid and the ones who wouldnt be looking to get the vaccine, theyre all in and ready to go. Im not. What would you rather do, melissa . What would you rather . Fly or go to that casino id rather fly than go to the casino i mean, yeah would you agree, guys . Yes, i would agree. I dont know. Why not my view well, first of all, going to the casino, you are in control of your social distancing, on a plane it seems that youre not, and anyway, i think flying, were going to talk about airlines later, and i think airlines are putting certain precautions in place that probably cant be violated as easily as the casinos, but look, i get that in the first nine minutes people are rushing into those casinos think, they were theres plenty of people that think they are immune and think theyll be impervious from the virus or maybe, in fact, they are. Im not surprised that there are not that there are animal spirits for people that want to go out, spend some money and people are not in a good way emotionally right now and people are willing to throw caution to the wind lori, great to see you hi. Great to be here youre calling for 2750 and whats the number one them are thing that you see with its very textbook and the kinds of things that you work on a recession low has been working, and it is pretty rich right now. We are trading 21 times next years earnings and you had a valuation opportunity and its dissipated and now we have to confront the reality and well be in this hole in the market for a while and theyre ignoring the lousy levels i think there are a number of hurdles that are coming up in particular the 2020 election is a big risk looming over the markets this summer that investors are starting to Pay Attention to i think also just the idea that weve seen the sequential progress is just pent up animal spirits as tim said earlier or is that going to be a sustained move if we just if this is just a big sigh of relief thats going on right now and we dont see that continued improvement on all fronts. I think markets will have a tough time frankly, i worry when were talking about the consumer, we never saw Consumer Sentiment fall to financial crisis lows the way we did to Economic Indicators so if we do get a second wave of the virus and if we do have a changing of the guard in washington, these are all things that can potentially weigh on consumers. If those jobs that were lost dont come back, i dont think thats factored into the consumer psyche and its not factored into the markets right now. Its funny because the 2020 election seems so far away because of whats going on right now and it is around the corner, lori and you do address a changing of the guard. I want to be clear to the audience, were not a political show, and were not endorsing democrats or republicans or anything like that, but how do the markets perceive donald trump staying in office, is that the preferred scenario still we try to stay out of the politics, as well and one of the ways we do that is we ask Equity Investors how do you think markets will react in different scenarios and what weve seen consistently over the last year, year and a half, they think a trump reelection is a positive outcome for markets and weve also seen that Equity Investors have generally expected the senate to stay in republican hands, and thought that there was no chance that the democrats would be able to come back in and it was sort of a hedge even if trump lost the senate wouldnt flip and so there wouldnt be any massive policy change what we know is that if you look at the betting markets and the predicted data, trumps expectations and his chances for reelection according to the betting markets have fallen and some of those data points that are tracked there and biden has it by a nose, and the senate is basically a tossup. So the expectations on the political front thats the marketfriendly scenario would stay in place, thats started to fade in the betting markets and i talked to investors who started to bet and theyre starting to get very worried. Hey, lori, its dan assuming that we dont see a massive second wave in the virus that we continue to have the stimulus and things have generally calmed down as far as the streets in america, what do you think the biggest risk right now to just things continuing to kind of move forward is it high unemployment in the back half of this year, in the next year and what sort of Unemployment Rate should investors get comfortable with as we go into 2021 thats a good question on the its probably higher than what investors are anticipating i think frankly, the biggest risk will be the consumer themselves and what we heard, is are we going to see a second week of layoffs and we see companies have focused on costcutting and theyre standing by employees trying to keep people employed and its not clear that thats going to last just the emphasis on costcutting is going to be there and also companies have higher costs that theyve got to manage against they have to balance against because all these things that you have to do to keep your employers safe and your workers safe thats going to create incremental pressures. So we think markets are basically anticipating the perfect vshaped recovery and everyone gets back to normal in the third quarter, and the jobs mostly come back and even if it happens its in the stocks now so weve seen markets arent reacting and they came in worse than expected and the data was better than expected i dont think the setup here is necessarily for the data to come in better than expected anymore. Lori, thank you great to see you lori, rbc guy adamy and of course, tomorrow is the big jobs report. Sure it is. All over the map and quite frankly, if you told me what the numbers would be right now i think i have a 50 50 shot in understanding where the marks are and i dont think we have any edge whatsoever because quite frankly, i dont know whats a good number and whats a bad number what i will say is this, 2750 is where i thought the s p would stop on the upside on the 2800 level so i understand where shes getting that, number one, number two, she brings up valuations and i do think valuations matter and right now even if i assume it, its 24 times and who knows what it will look like next year and to your point that youve made about pay cuts and layoffs nobody wants to say it and im not sure any ceos want to say it right now in this environment, but behind closed doors you can rest assured that theyre talking about how do we reduce head count and how do we reduce compensation thats absolutely going on and nobody can tell me otherwise none of that, by the way is particularly bullish. Coming up, a billionaire brawl. Elon musk taking on jeff bezos and why musk is saying it is prime time for an amazon breakup and an alltime high and wlle tell you what it is and whats behind this move fast money is back in two. For. Surprise we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. Im good at my condo. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. Welcome back to fast money. Musk targeting jeff bezos. Time to break up amazon. Monopolies are wrong this after a noted skeptic who said Amazon Kindle didnt publish his unreported truths of covid and lockdowns because it did not comply with guidelines and there are a lot of layers to the story and the war of words it brings amazon squarely into the debate over whether platform had a role in filtering content and it highlights a rivalry on musk and bezos on space and amazons investment, and dan, i know you flagged this to me as soon as it hit what was your first reaction here well, pretty interesting. Musk has had a lot to say about covid and hes had a lot to say about the lockdowns and hes had a lot to say about space, and so you know, at the end of the day i just kind of find it funny that hes pointing fingers here. I think jeff bezos is widely viewed as one of the most innovative ceos the worlds ever seen i think musk would be very happy with that title some day in the future i guess the issue i would say for amazon is not as much about a breakup. Its really what Vice President biden said to Andrew Ross Sorkin a few weeks ago on cnbc about taxes and this is a company that in q1 had 75 billion in sales and had 2. 5 billion in net income and they talked about having increased costs i think were having problems with dans feed here well go over to careen and get your thoughts. The other interesting dichotomy between these two billionaires is that elon musk is viewed very favorably by the president he is called the Thomas Edison of our times and spacex has a contract with nasa and on the flip side, jeff bezos is target left and right for president trump. Yeah. Thats exactly what i was thinking its sort of fun they elon musk is able to walk the line of being in the president s good graces and yet having probably a workforce that isnt so protrump. That would be my guess i dont know as you said, jeff bezos and the washington post, clearly the president doesnt like him so i wonder does a tweet from elon musk to not directly, but to the, you know, the tweeter in chief, does that have any does that have any pull, can he get something done i dont know if you like amazon i wouldnt sell it over this. Tim interesting he wasnt tweeting about his own company i do think you have a case when we saw this when tesla was basically fighting the s