We start first with technology on a tear as we kick off the second half of the year. The nasdaq composite hitting a new record high in todays trading led by gains in the fang names. Facebook, amazon, netflix, al a alphab alphabet, all higher can we expect more highs ahead well turn to you first, guy does this resonate with you right now, this notion that its the mega cap tech stocks that continue to be the leadership in the kind of market we have today . You know what resonates with me i hear your voice, tom, but im looking at engelbert humperdink. After hours, guy, this is what it looks like. Im liking it you have to be impressed with the market as well does it resonate with me absolutely im not going to pretend ive been bullish theres a metallica song from 1982 nothing else matters. Nothing else matters but the fed and the fact we have this passive investing that continues to work apple is in close to 280 atf facebook is in about 220 etf and 170 of those facebook is one of the top 15 holdings. Money continues to pour in mindlessly into these names. We did point out on june 29th that reversal on facebook. Think about it even with all the news with facebook, its right back to levels we saw prior to the try try um ver rate. It speaks volumes as to whats going on here. The market is impervious to any news that could possibly be negative. We do have Karen Finerman i see her up there right now i kind of feel like youve been hearing us but we havent been able to see you until just now karen, guy brings up passive investing. We know that much of the etf flows will have to buy names like apple and microsoft do you think these names its more of those etf buyerings that a are driving this market . I think the other thing that guy hit on which is the most important thing is the fed as long as the fed has said were there, weve got your back no problem, i think its giving investors a lot of confidence that any kind of pullbacks will be minimal and that people will buy it even though when you look at the economy and whats been going on with the reclosings, i think you can paint a pretty bearish picture. But so far not fighting the fed has been the way to go i thought it was interesting today where they had some discussion about do they have targets and they decided not to. I totally understand why they dont want to have targets, because what if they put them out there and things arent going their way and people get afraid, oh my god, the fed has lost control that would probably be a pretty bad scenario as long as the fed is still there. Its a great point that karen brings up. The fed has been by many measures the one factor that so many people say is whats driving the Market Action right now. Karen made all those points too. Is there anything you can make about this market that isnt directly tied to the world awash with money and cash . Well, its tough. First of all, karen makes a lot of great points. The real song off of the metallica album was called enter sandman. Its lights out if youre fighting liquidity the s p 500 traded in almost a 15point range and a tighter range than that for most of the day. The market was not moving. As the vix falls, marko brought up on our show last night, as the vix falls, the market will go higher. Whether this is holidayinduced lethargy, its such a critical component to what were doing here why will volatility fall i think theres a couple things that were out today. We had a great day of macro data i realize these are less bad points or glass half full. Adp had 2. 75 jobs added. The ism manufacturing number, i know were a services economy, but printed at 52. 6 and every part of that was strong. Pmis around the world including china were good last night the data isnt awful the most important thing about the data is the virus right now. Although cases are going higher, mortality rates are going lower. That may be a function of were getting more tests out there and i think theres some confidence that comes with that. Confidence is key right now up until now weve talked about many of the constructive parts of the market. Not that im putting you in the minority opinion category, but is there anything about todays action that gives you pause or maybe worries you a little bit so the minority opinion, you obviously watch the show thanks for watching there, dom just to keep with this metallica theme, enter sandman, who entered to that tune was mo rivera he had one pitch the cutter let me tell you whos got multiple pitches the fed. Theyre not just a onepitch wonder here, but they are trying to close this thing out a little bit. Ill just say this when we talk about technology, this discussion that my esteemed panel just had here, you know, we have a little bit of a mania in a fed induced bubble going on right here im just looking at some of the price action today alone in amazon, up nearly 5 , up nearly 10 in three trading days off the monday low thats gained more than 100 billion in market cap. You know what has 1 100 billion in market cap right now . Shopify. That company is trading about 50 times sale there we get back to the mania there we have a little bit of a bubble here. If all the money on a day like today is going into those sorts of stocks, the mega cap and the speculative high valuation ones, then you say to yourself, whats the hell else is going on in this market . Well, small caps traded really poorly, banks traded poorly, oil stocks traded poorly the reversal in the transports was atrocious given fedexs price action here. I just say to myself, i dont know what investors are looking at as we head into the second half of this year. Yes, maybe some of the data on the pandemic, on the virus spreading is likely to get better from here, but who knows . So the market is discounting a whole heck of a lot of good news around therapies, around vaccines, around reopenings. Valuations, no matter which way you look at it, are getting very stressed im not telling you valuation is a reason to sell the market here, but those stocks that are climbing the way they are and are commanding the valuation and the market caps, its just not particularly sustainable it will not be here in a few months. This is the Perfect Group of setup pitchers to get into our next topic as we have a bona fide debate here lets bring in the chief equity derivative strategist over at credit suiwiss which way is this market supposed to go given the cross currents in corporate and macro data to me, the telling thing about price action is the fact that in an up day all the cyclical factors are lagging to i think everyone at this point is aware of the negative news out there, the rising virus cases in parts of the u. S. , potential reclosings, et cetera. But i think people are not paying enough attention to potential positives. Everyone talks about the fed thats pretty well understood. What about fiscal stimulus we have a big fiscal put coming up later this month. Any view my view is were going to get an extension to a lot of these stimulus measures to the end of the year i think the pessimism is well understood its also reflected in the pricing in the derivative market were seeing a lot of downside puts that demand for those downside hedges is higher today than it was at the peak of the crisis in march. To me, thats the asemitri or the dislocation that spans out given the positive policy. Our view Going Forward is actually quite constructive given the still very cautious positioning of the market. Mandy, you mention this kind of asymmetry thats happening with regard to pricing in the options market, more people flooding toward the downside insurance. Thats something traders call option skew. Exactly. The relative pricing relative to the puts of similartime price movements. What does that tell you about what it looks like in the next, say, three, five, six, 12 months how does this play out in the marketplace . You say its constructive, but is it an even path not necessarily it doesnt signal a Straight Line up. It certainly suggests that the Downside Risk is well understood and well priced in that mea in terms of on the way up, the rally so far has been really led by health care from here as we get further upside in equities, i do believe it will come from positive surprises to Economic Data it will come from a more vshaped recovery in terms of Economic Growth in which case the cyclical factors should benefit more in that backdrop. In particular, given still very High Economic uncertainty, we really like playing that upside through options. Thats one thing weve seen a lot of investors do. Before we let you go, is there any place in the market, any data point, any sector, industry, stock, anything like that that serves as a possible canary in the coal mine for you . I think to me what to watch for is credit. If we see a pickup in credit, market volatility or credit spread, i think that would be a big negative to equity i would say at the macro level that is the indicator im looking at most closely. Mandy at credit swees, great to get your thoughts here. Thank you karen, i saw you nodding and following along in that conversation what resonated with you there . Im watching the reactions that you had during that interview. Well, its sort of interesting to me that she talked about the skew in terms of bearishness, how much protection there is that investors have to protect the downside you know, for a lot of weeks we kept hearing were going to retest the lows. That was probably in april and may. Obviously it was significantly higher from there. That gives me comfort to hear that the market is sort of positioned for a downward move, because in the path of least resistance is probably higher. Were watching that pain trade for sure. Another big story, everyone, to kind of keep an eye on here, we have some big news out of pfizer today on its experimental coronavirus vaccine. Lets get to meg with the details. It was a market mover. Meg, what can you tell us . It sure was these were very early data, the first weve seen from human trials of pfizers Vaccine Program for covid. They rolled 45 Healthy People into this study ages 1855 and presented data looking at two lower doses for 24 patients. They found all participants presented antibodies which blocked the viruss ability to enter the cell at levels about two to three times what you see in patients who have recovered from covid19. We dont know if that level is going to be high enough to provide protection and for how long but thats what theyre going to find out in the bigger trials safety, of course, incredibly important here as well they did see pain at the injection site, fatigue, headache and fever which did get worse at higher doses and after the second shot. Thats why they focused on these two lower doses as well. They are heading toward that phase three Clinical Trial theyre going to select the best vaccine. This is just the first of four theyre looking at to start a 30,000 participant trial in the second half of this month. Theyre neck and neck with mo derna. Sastrazeneca starting july or august and Johnson Johnson a few months later pfizer said it expects to have 100 million doses of this vaccine by the end of the year and 1. 2 billion by the end of 2021 thats of course if all goes well in the studies and they get the Regulatory Approvals some of the biggest names in biopharma trying to work toward that technology. So lets trade pfizer. I would say lets put it in context first. We saw a nice move higher in pfizer today on a year to date basis, everyone, we are still talking about a mega cap drug thats down 23 over the last 12 months maybe it was due for an uptick here is this bullish pfizer in your mind, guy . Yeah, it is look at you doing your homework. Loving that youre coming on fast money and you have your numbers in front of you. Outstanding. Pfizer is cheap. It should be higher, but the real outperformer and one weve talked about for a while continues to be eli lilly. On top of that you had a huge move today on amgen. I think that stock is making an alltime high which reaffirms the breakout in the ibb. Big cap pharma and biotech continue to work and theres no reason that they wont continue to move to the upside. Is pfizer the place that you want to play this when it comes to large cap mega cap biobiopharma or are there other players trafficking in vaccines right now that are better in your mind . I think in terms of relative value i like pfizer and merck. The news out of pfizer is on obviously exciting mo der that is in late stage trials one of the things we talked about on the show is this isnt necessarily a boon for the underlying Drug Companies. Its really more of a market call i want to own pfizer i work merck i actually think this is more of a market call. I think the common news were getting is at least giving people some confidence that some of the smartest and best Drug Companies in the world are going after this we had great macro we had dynamics in terms of markets and volatility and positioning but ultimately we continue to get decent data. I think People Better understand where the virus data is from the front line even though the case numbers are getting higher i think theres a big debate over where mortality is. Were going to tackle the transportation stocks. Big followthrough from fedex on its Earnings Report last night into today now is the time to support the places you love. Spend 10 dollars or more at a participating Small Business and get 5 dollars back, up to 10 times with American Express. Enroll now at shopsmall. Com. If youve had the coronavirus, youve got a lot of fight in you. 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Fedex topping the tape today we are seeing some strong followthrough last nights Earnings Report, the stock surging double digits on those results. Now despite those big gains, the Transportation Industry group failed to hold in positive territory today. Dan nathan, you alluded to this earlier. Its not exactly a positive sign in your mind that the transports couldnt hold the gains despite a massive move higher by fedex yeah. Horrible price action in the group. You saw the rails traded very poorly those airlines had a horrendous day. United airlines closed 10 off of its opening highs here. Thats just a disaster when you look at the group as a whole on a day like today with one of the Top Ten Holdings up 12 and they cant hold their gains, you say to yourself, very stock specific, we talked about fedex last night on the show this is a stock as of yesterdays close down 50 from alltime highs in 2018 the story is expectations have been ground down for two years finally you see some light at the end of the tunnel. The price action in the transports i think today was very troubling without fedex we would have been opening the show with the transport reversal today. Guy adami, i want to turn to you. Do you consider fed ex or ups, those types of names, are they in a covid playbook for you . Are they the ones you would dr to be like a netflix it sure seems like a big part of the narrative. My mplaybook days ended in college. You mentioned netflix. That had a monster day today clearly that trade is alive and well its really interesting. Facebook did make an alltime high in september of 2018. Since then youve had a series of lower lows and lower highs, not particularly good. Today, great, yes, i get it, huge day to the upside fedex typically trades about 2. 5 million shares per day traded 18 million shares or so today. My math suggests thats over six times normal volume. It traded right up to the price target ubf slapped on them a few weeks ago. My inclination and im wrong a lot, is you take profits in this name and continue, you know, you bank on that trend for the last two years or so continuing to the downside. It has been a near medium term uptrend for sure for fedex stocks since the covid19 lows back in march. Coming we are following a developing story out of hong kong where protesters have taken to the streets as a new security law goes into effect those details coming up. Plus, are auto sales on the road to recovery we have the latest data and those trades when fast money returns. [narrator] at Southern New Hampshire university, were committed to making college more affordable. Thats why were keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. [student] i knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. [narrator] find your degree at snhu. Edu. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Welcome back to fast money. We are following a developing story out of Hong Kong Police launching a big crackdown as a new security law imposed by china goes into effect reporter u. S. Businesses are reassessing their exposure to hong kong after china imposes new National Security laws on the city thousands of protesters defied a police ban on the july 1st anniversary of the hong kong handover Police Arres