Headlines. Fang with all the headlines in the greens, apple, amazon, netflix up 1. 5 . Tech remains hot, hot, hot. Still to come, definitely coming on todays show, coronavirus cases climb and states continue to rethink their opening plans. Well speak with fed chair James Bullard, what it means for the economy. Shares of Taylor Morrison posted record sales well speak to the ceo about whats driving the strength in the housing mark up a third of the percent. Lets start focusing on the big stories. Mike santoli tracking the markets, meg tirrell with the rising case count and courtney watching flags in the Retail Sector mike, lets kick things off with you. Market idling right here, holding above the flat line for the moment it seems like stealth pullback consolidation weve had last few weeks, s p 500, talking about a summer trading range this is what we had last summer. It looked like that on a narrow basis. Scares in both directions. Were not there in terms of prolonged sideways action. This is something we could keep in mind. I did mention yesterday, similarity, strong payrolls rally follow upside, tuesday wednesday down small that thursday was the big 5 or 6 down day, that air pocket we got in the s p 500 now that we mentioned it, it probably wont happen but so far actually matching whats gone on today, this week right now were not having big bets on the reopening which is a big difference it is all tech something interesting, 50day moving average its about cross above a flat 200 day, called a golden cross its no magic signal but is often the scene is a confirmation of upturn look at this low, 2015 low, going up, crossing above the flattish 200 day most of that rebound rally was kind of in the books by then but did kind of give way to choppier trend from there do want to point out not always perfect. Back in 2015 you had this and this and you had a dip in between. So its not necessarily an all clear but something some traders are watching here, guys. Interesting comparison to a month or so ago. Those were much higher at the start of june than they are now. Weve got some breaking news to pivot to on airbus. Fill leb oeau have it for us. We have orders for airbus frankly, there are no orders for the second straight month airbus booked zero new airline orders half of this year, they have not been able to book any airplane orders not a surprise with what weve seen with Global Airline business all of it under pressure Airlines Parking more planes than ordering them their backlog stands at 7,584 planes well get the boeing numbers in terms of june orders and deliveries that will come out next tuesday. Guys, back to you. Are we expecting any orders there, phil . Wouldnt be surprised they havent had a positive month yet this year, sara. I wouldnt be surprised if we see a negative number again from boeing remember, at the end of the month, june 29th off 30th you had Norwegian Air come out scrap the maxes we ordered i think people are conditioning themselves not to expect much on those boeing numbers fiphil lebeau. Thank you. Confirmed u. S. Coronavirus cases topping 3 million with another daily spike. Meg terrell has the lairrell ha. You are continuing to see record numbers texas more than 10,000 new daily cases yesterday. If you look at the metro areas that are the Fastest Growing, the hot spots in the country, now two of them are in South Carolina charleston is the Fastest Growing area of the country right now with the case doubling pace of nine days followed by mcallen, texas, jacksonville, florida, myrtle beach and orlando, florida some of those are areas that the administration is focusing on to surge in testing like that area of texas as well as jacksonville, florida, and baton rouge, louisiana a Coronavirus Task briefing dr. Deborah birx pointed to trends in florida and arizona while case numbers are rising in counties there, what they are seeing in terms of trends in er visits for covidlike systems are starting to decline in those states here you see arizona, florida also showing a decline they are saying they are hopeful this might mean we are headed toward a plateau in those areas. Also interesting to point out, apple maps tracks mobility data in terms of people seeking directions for driving, walking and transit. You can see here our nato rattner on cnbc. Com put together this chart a slight downtick of people seeking driving directions in early july in the states with the most case growth, texas, california, arizona, florida they are seeing down ticks people may be starting to heed warnings. S p up half a percent lets turn to retail and a number of red flags from an industry already hit hard by the pandemic Courtney Reagan has that story. Many names on watch lists into chapter 11. Still likely more to come. By my count we have 10 major retailers or brands that filed since the pandemic kicked off. Brooks brother filing for bankruptcy, 202 years old. It has seep two pandemics, numerous recessions. The retailer had been exploring options for about a year before ultimately being pushed into that filing by the strain that the covid closures put on sales. Last year Brooks Brothers was just shy of a billion dollars in revenues about 20 of that came online. Theres 500 global stores, about 250 in the u. S. And 4,000 employees. Unlike others, it wasnt suffocating from debt, private equity, its privately owned by ceo Claudio Delvecchio its liking for a buyer. Its from whp global, a Brand Management firm. Its the first as far as i can determine or remember that weve seen this type of company do that dip financing Gordon Brothers also provided a loan both whp global and Gordon Brothers bought pieces or assets of bankrupt retailers in the past, wonder if theres interest here the owner of ann taylor, lot of, jane bryant, close to file as well it has 3,000 stores this one would be a really big blow to malls and real estate not entirely surprised if it happens. It really has been under strain since it bought ann, inc. Keeping an eye. Levi, the earnings traded higher first half an hour or so after the earnings hit why are we so much lower today. You know, wilf, weve got those earnings when you look at sales not entirely surprising and they announced those layoffs, the cost cuts it will save the company a decent amount of money of course you always worry about the folks at the receiving end of that. Perhaps the shareholders felt a little better about knowing cost savings and consideration. The ceo said we havent had to reclose stores because of the outbreaks and resurgence however, we have a plan. Were checking in with certain stores, about 40 of them, every monday, wednesday, friday. Perhaps your shareholders feel better there is a go forward plan and they are doing what they can to manage this very tough situation. Last i would just point out think about the items levi sells less fashion if you didnt sell them during the pandemic, you may be able to hang onto that inventory, resell it in another way at another time so less sort of fashion and inventory risk for this name, perhaps. Court, thanks for that. Levi down about 9 as we stand. After the break, National EconomicCouncil Director telling every piece of data shows v shaped recovery. Well ask excuse fed James Bullard if he agrees youre watching closing bell at cnbc. Usaa is made for whats next were helping members catch up by spreading any missed usaa insurance payments over the next twelve months so they can keep more cash in your pockets for when it matters most find out more at usaa. Com for when it matters most if youve had the coronavirus, youve got a lot of fight in you. And youre in a special position to help us fight back. The plasma in your blood can literally save lives. But we need to act fast. Please donate plasma now. Please donate. Donate. Donate. Donate now. You fought for your life. Now lets take the fight to covid19. Go to the fight is in us dot org to find out how to donate. Iredefined the wordng thschool this year. Its why, at xfinity, were committed to helping kids keep learning through the summer. And help College Students studying at home stay connected through our university program. Were providing affordable Internet Access to low income families through our internet essentials program. And this summer, xfinity is creating a Virtual Summer camp for kids at home all on xfinity x1. Were committed to helping all families stay connected. Learn more at xfinity. Com education. Welcome back National EconomicCouncil Director larry kudlow on squawk box said vshaped delivery. Loretta mester said she believes it will be a long road ahead for recovery the next guest has warned the risks of a financial crisis do remain fed chair James Bullard, welcome back to the show. Great to be on. Thanks for having me. Lets start there with how this resurgence of coronavirus cases and rollbacks and reopening and the economic hit that might have and how it affects your current outlook in thinking about recovery right now. Im still pretty optimistic in my base case about the recovery i understand that cases confidence cases are up, estimated cases up only slidely. So the model so far doesnt want to put a lot of estimated cases out there. But what i like about the Third Quarter here, a lot of adjustment in the private sector, a lot of businesses thinking about how they can get their product out the door in a situation with the disease still out there. I think it can be done it can be managed. I would also say about the projections for the disease that i think masks will become ubiquitous throughout the economy and the projections are that if we get masks pretty much everywhere, fatalities will go way down below 200 a day if it gets to that situation, i think well have the disease under control. What i like about that scenario is it does not rely on a vaccine coming or therapeutic coming we can use simple, easy technology we have today get a good situation, get most of the production back to normal so youre sounding a little bit more optimistic than some of the other members of the federal reserve. Are you saying that a vshaped recovery is possible i think were tracking very well right now unemployment peaked at 4. 7 some would say because of misreporting it was much higher than that. Now its down to 11. 1 so i think i would say to my fellow economist in the forecasting community, you should take that on board how volatile this number is. 360 basis points down in just two months seems to me like by the end of the year you can get down to certainly Single Digits and probably into maybe below 8 , maybe even 7 by the end of the year youve got a lot of people that are saying among the unemployed, huge fraction of them are saying they are on temporary layoff so if you just take that at face value, they are going to get recalled back. So this shock is nothing like previous shocks in the postwar era, and i think our friends in the forecasting community are trying to play out a repeat of 2007 to 2009 in the aftermath of that that was a very different shock, a very different situation so i think we can get most these people recalled here in the next 90 days. This will be a period of transition where businesses are trying to adjust they are trying to cope. But the lesson of the Second Quarter is that its possible to cope, its possible to do simple things that keep the disease under control and allow to you run your business. President bullard, i wonder whether you think bankruptcy could derail that relatively more constructive tone that sarah riley suggested you seem to have. You gave an interview to the Financial Times at the start of this month. Their title was feds bullard says financial crisis remains. Is that a representation of your general view i think its fair i say thats my base case, what i just told you, but there is Downside Risk to that case its not my base case, but this can go badly were in the middle of a crisis. Things can take twists and turns. The disease itself can morph on us i dont think thats going to happen i think were in good shape but you never know thats why we have to be very careful. It is a time of high risk for the u. S. Economy you could get into a financial crisis you could even get into a depression so again, not my base case if that happens, youll get even worse youll be worse on both dimensions youll have a worse economy and worse health outcomes, both. Thats why we have to be very careful in this situation to try to get back to work here. Were facing some key deadlines when it comes to fiscal support what happens when those ppp loans and funds runs out what happens when that bonus unemployment check expires at the end of july . What happens to the economy then yeah, a lot of people are talking about this but you know a bill is obviously brewing in congress. Many key players signaled there will be a bill youve got politicians facing an election in the fall with a green light to spend more. How likely is it they are going to pass. The question is whats going to be in there and exactly how will that be structured thats the optimal way to structure it it makes sense the details would be at the wire, thats the optimal way to negotiate it makes sense they would want to get as much information as they can before they make a commitment on what the fiscal policy will be for that second half of the year i would say well get a bill and there will be plenty of resources there. If things doget a lot worse for whatever reason, president bullard, should negative rates be on the table and should fed purchase of equities possibly be on the table yeah. I dont think either one of those is very like ly many members have said they dont think negative rates are a good option for the u. S. They havent worked all that well in japan or europe. So our structure of shortterm funding markets is different so i think thats kind of way down the list of things we could do to be effective i think weve got an effective policy today weve got lots of implicit former guidance in place we think were going to keep rates low, markets do, i think thats exactly right were going to try to get through this so im not seeing that as a possibility. Lets talk about what you are buying going into directly buying Corporate Bonds for apple and mcdonalds and cocacola, how far will this go yeah. Were in there with 133 program. Those programs are for emergency situations they require approval, secretary treasury there was concern in the march, april time frame that the corporate debt market would freeze up. So we did get in as a backstop i would say in that market the actual amounts were buying are tiny the program will eventually expire here. I think we did the right thing we wanted to be sure that market was functioning, that it didnt freeze up. If you get a market fleesing up, traders wont trade at any price and thats when you get into financial crisis weve avoided that situation over the first 90 days of the crisis, so i think that was successful probably just let that go for now. Yeah, we dont want to let everyone be in the game of trying to guess the corporate which corporate debt is the right corporate debt. What about the stock market were looking at near session highs right now. Maybe the market likes your enthusiasm and optimism base case for the economy in terms of the forecast the market really has shown itself to be numb to bad news around coronavirus cases surging, hospitalizations rising, even some economic news. Yes, coming in better than expected but still paints a picture of double digit unemployment and pretty steep challenges why do you think that is why do you think the market is taking off so much and why tech in particular . It was up 45 in five days what does that signal to you i dont know if all these valuations are exactly right, but the general tone has been that you have a powerful tech sector which really led the u. S. Economy. Of all things to happen, this is putting a tail wind behind that process, so those companies are looking even better in an era where mobile technology has proven to be a god send. I think one of the lessons of the Second Quarter was just finished from the u. S. Is work from home is extremely powerful and it makes sense weve been trending toward mobile technology for a long time here we moved into it in a wholesale way. Lo and behold, you can get a lot of work done and a lot of product produced, a lot of gdp produced through that process. So thats very encouraging, i think. Thats something that wouldnt have been 15 years ago in the way were using it today that part, i think, makes sense. I think also the markets read on this situation, which is that the bottom will be april, which i agree with, and that the initial shock is big and confusing but was not as big as what was initially forecast. You might recall the Imperial College study saying 2. 2 million fatalities in the u. S. To project for 2020 current projections are less than a tenth of that yes, its bad. Yes, weve had to adjust but its not as bad as what would have been on the radar screen during that march april period so it makes sense that markets would rebound a lot from the pricing of that period James Bullard, thank you very much for joining us. Thanks so much for having me. Have a great day you, too. President of the st. Louis federal reserve. Coming up, shares of tesla competitor nikola surging after a bullish note from jpmorgan word on the street on that call and others when closing bell comes back, session highs, 35 minutes left of trade and were positive across the averages this selenite grey is so pretty isnt it . Wow. Jim could you pop the hood for us . There she is. Turbocharged, right . Yes it is. Jim, could you uh kick the tires . Oh yes. Can you change the color inside the car . Oh sure. How about blue . Thats more cyan but. Jump in the back seat, jim. Act like my kids. How much longer . Exactly how they sound. Its got massaging seats too, right . Oh yeahhhhh. Oh yeahhhhh. Visit the mercedes