Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 12, 2024

Nice trifecta reports for snap, United Airlines and Texas Instruments. Jew julia, take it away. With snap meeting expectations on earnings and beating expectations on revenue, while subscriber numbers came in half a million lighter than expected, what is is putting pressure on the stock, you see its down over 6 , is guidance that snap is planning for t addition of 46 million daily active users the company also saying its combined cost of revenue and operating costs will grow at percentage rates in the low to mid 20s year over year compared to last year the company says these increasing costs are because its investing in longterm growth snap did not give any revenue guidance but said from july 1st through july 19th snap has seen 32 Revenue Growth theyre cautiously optimistic that these trends could sustain over time but theyre cautious that trends are volatile and could deteriorate. Ev evan spiegel saying Certain Industries have benefitted from some of the covidrelated circumstances. Snap in its Earnings Report stressing its strength with mentals and gen z shares ar you make of it even though were down 6 weve been pretty much range bound on the stock fo yeah, we have been. The numbers going into this were largely extraordinary off the bottom, almost 240 . Its the relative outperformance to facebook. We know that the demographic here is probably more focused on some of the politics and some of the things that have been the he headwinds for facebook the nice thing for snap basically up 13 that was better than expected. The d. A. U. Pull forward is something weve seen with other social media and online companies, something that netflix went through the fact that the Third Quarter guide all the way through is anywhere from 46 million vaus its been quite a run. Jeff mills, your take on the quarter for snap is there a read through to some of the other social media stocks yeah. So i agree with tim. That is the story about where weve come from. Their exposure to ecommerce and digital ad spending i think is important. If you look at industries surveyed, it looks like youre going to start to see digital ad spending start to grow again to the tune of about 13 . If you look at the direct response ads, theres a big trend there. Snap has capitalized that held up the best in the downturn overall i think snap is going a good job the problem is the valuation looking at snap at 20 times sales versus some of the others, google, twitter, facebook at nine times sales, thats part of the problem. Anything other than perfect guidance or revenue, youre going to see a little bit of a pullback although the company is doing a good job, i would rather enter at a much lower price. With these runs you might have to expect some of these moves like this, like this pullback were seeing in snap. Right we went from the bottom to the stop just in a Straight Line recently the story of where ticktotic tiktok would potentially be banned in the united states. I dont know if some of that facebook money is going over to snap i still find it too expensive to own. I mean its up 4 or 5 in the after market it wasnt a bad quarter at all i dont blame them at all for n not giving guidance. Were having some technical difficulty with karens audio and video. Chris, why dont you take it from here . I think this is an opportunity to add a good chart at lower prices over the next number of days well see where it openins tomorrow i think you could probably trade it down to 22 over the next number of weeks. The stock was being accumulated as it got through 20, 21 i think youll have a chance to add it there you have the 50day up through the 200. Its a good technical chart. I would add on weakness. Shared of united after reportin inin ining earnings. We have three things were going to focus on. Start with the q2 results which a lot of people look at and say we know it was a disaster, it was a disaster for all the airlines it was a loss of 1. 6 billion. They reported a profit of a 1 billion in the Second Quarter of last year. The estimates were all over the place. Revenue coming in a little better than expected at 1. 74 blgtd billion. The first key metric, where do things stand in terms of daily cash burn. In the Second Quarter uniteds daily cash burn was 40 million a day. That was on the low end of guidance the airline provided. For the Third Quarter, and this is new guidance, its going to be an average of 25 million a day. That is the companys guidance at this point. Previously it was expecting daily cash burn at 30 million. Thats an improvement of about 5 million a day in terms of daily cash burn. The other metric were focusing on, liquid dity. Cash is king and its about having enough to ride it out at the end of the Third Quarter united expects to have over 18 billion. That includes a loan from the Treasury Department for 4. 5 billion that united has not tapped but likely will tap all the airlines have this secondary loan from the Treasury Department thats been approved but many of them have not tapped it they have until the end of september to make that decision. Well be talking with united Ceo Scott Kirby exclusively on squawk box. Are the airlines strictly a vaccination play right now in other words, people arent going to fly in big numbers and traffic is not going to come back until we get some really positive news on a vaccine in other words people can say i know its coming therefore im going to get back on board well talk to scott kirby about that tomorrow morning on squawk. Whats your take on why its lower than expected . Is it probably more head count reduction . A couple of things. Head count reduction, which kicks in not the until the end of the Third Quarter its not about that. Its more about the fact that theyve done a great job in terms of limiting capacity when you look at their load factors and where they are in terms of how many seats theyve put in the air, theyve been much more aggressive than their competitors about saying were in the going to fly. Were not going to flood the market with seats and hope people come back they have been very judicious. Thats showing up in the cash burn come douing down as aggresy as it has. Phil, thank you lower cash for the Third Quarter, higher cash position. That means a longer lifeline for ual. Yeah. Just some quick math, you know, basically four times 25, you get to 100 times ten a billion dollars they burn over 40 days. We know they have about a year and a half i think the story that phils talking about is matching essentially demand, supply and demand load factor for august would be at 35. It was 40 in july. The concerning thing is the good thing. Their cash burn is coming down fwh because theyre matching demand. Six weeks ago we were talking about if you look at bookings out of newark in the end of june, they were down 65 august theyre going to be down 85 . We thought as we got through the summer, were actually going to see more capacity coming back online in fact, theyre going the other way. Thats good news for shareholders, i believe, but ultimately normalized earnings for airlines, we really have no idea. Karen is on the phone now karen, your take on United Airlines especially as new york is adding more states to the list from which visitors must quarantine two weeks when they arrive in new york well try and get karen on the phone. Tim mills, ill go to you. We were talking about ual having all sorts of cancellations because of its presence in the new york and new jersey area more and more states are being added to that long list of quarantine states, more trouble for the airline. Yeah. Ive been pretty vocal about my trepidation about the industry overall. But do i think look at ual specifically, its a stock thats down 62 . Its interestingly showing some pretty good support at the upper sloping moving 50day average. I do believe its a reopening play and a vaccine play. If youre an investor that belie believes those headlines are going to be positive, i would keep a short leash on it i think about International Demand and International Revenue exposure as an example a company like united is pushing upwards of 40 of their revenue linked to International Travel thats particularly problematic for them also i think about their pricing and the ability to price profitability. Go back to the financial crisis. Think about how many years it took for airlines to get back to pricing that led to profitability. When you think about the cash burn and try to triangulate that to profitability, you have to keep that in mind. Virus or no virus, how long does it take to work off some of the lingering effects. Im still very cautious. Some might call the airlines Zombie Companies at this point because theyre not making money but yet they have huge cash positions on their Balance Sheets that will keep them afloat. I think jeff got this right is it tradeable in the context of the next number of weeks . It may be that 30 level is big support, but is it investable in the context of is this stock going to be a leader over a next number of years. Thats where im a skeptic looking at the airlines today reminds me so much of how the banks traded off the 2009 lows the bank stocks doubled and tripled the first couple months off the march 2009 lows. Then they were stuck there year after year after year. When youre at the scene of the accident the likelihood you return as a leader the next cycle is pretty low. Maybe theyre tradeable, but are they a leader on the other side of this . Probably not. Heres how Texas Instruments is trading after reporting results up by a percent. That call is just wrapping up let me give you sort of the headline guidance has been key this quarter. Texas instruments not only providing guidance but raising it for the Third Quarter that can give some hope to the rest of the chip making industry which has been disrupted on the supply and demand side due to the pandemic it seems that the pandemic didnt actually have that much of an impact on its business otherwise. Executives are striking a conservative note saying theyve remained cautious during an uncertain environment but they do think growth is probably over the long run the ceo said that the current environment is a great time to make the most of opportunities, but theyll continue to follow the same framework they have been father or mothollowing Texas Instruments also continues its socalled strategy of optionalty that is keeping production levels at about the same as they were at the beginning of the year that means theyd be ready if demand snaps back quickly. One analyst asked about the threat of china developing its own chips in the current economic and political environment. The cfo down played that threat saying theyre in a good position to compete against chip making companies whether theyre american or chinese. Jeff mills, maybe no surprise we sort of expected this yeah. I think so if you look at the way the stocks been trading, for a while it struggled at that 130 level. Even before earnings it broke above that i think theres some momentum in this specific name you could play we just talked about the strategy theyre employing the fact theyre continuing produce inventory at previrus levels sets them up well to continue to drive fundamentals going forward. Whether we recover fully or not from an economic perspective, it seems like the chips are still in relatively high demand. This is a stock you could probably own its not cheap here but neither is the entire industry overall i like the name. Shares of best buy are trading higher after the company said sales since reopening are up 15 compared to last year its also raising its starting hourly wage to 15 bucks starting august 2nd shares up by 3. 6 . Tim, i guess this is what people are buying now theyre doing more work and school from home, electronics. Yeah. Best buy has definitely been a have between stimulus checks and between the work at home trade, people are certainly beefing up their infrastructure the question is how much have they pulled forward. The reality is this is a company thats done such a great job since 2009 in getting their Online Business and getting their inventory levels to place where theyre a very Efficient Company and theyre not sitting on inventory i think the stock goes higher. They have found a place well ahead of what competition is left they are competing with amazon and walmart. It is the place people think of first when theyre going for electronics. This is one of my favorite names in this entire sector. It spent the last three years between 50 and 90. Just breaking above that 90 level tomorrow whats important for me is this has made new relative alltime highs versus the s p not only is it going up in affluent terms, its an outperformer its best of breed among brick and mortar i think its a must own here. Is that the longer the base, the higher the space. Exactly this is a huge base. 5090. It caps to about 130140 the next round of stimulus expected to be introduced in the next few days. Kayla has all the details. Top Congressional Democrats just finished a roughly 90minute meeting with officials from the Trump Administration including Steven Mnuchin and mark meadows in which democrats communicated to the administration that the 1 trillion benchmark theyre currently working with is not sufficient and that they want to see the draft of the republicans bill before trying to negotiate against broad principles despite 2 trillion of differences between where the parties stand, Mitch Mcconnell who is drafting that forthcoming bill said today that it will include at least one of several democratic priorities and that is another round of direct stimulus checks. Well layout t out the specis im going to introduce a bill in the next few days that is a starting place that enjoys fairly significant support among republican senators, probably not everyone, at that point well be more specific about how to allocate. We do envision direct checks again. Reporter there is hardly full consensus among republicans. Senator rand paul voiced opposition for another round of checks to people who still have jobs mcconnell himself noted significant differences of opinion on a payroll tax holiday that has been pushed most personally by President Trump. The window to get a deal is very narrow, a moratorium on evictions and the expansion of Unemployment Benefits are both set to end this friday, july 25th the Small Business grand program ne will end on august 8th the virus itself is showing no signs of dying out President Trump at the Coronavirus Briefing that has restarted as of just this hour just said that it is going to get worse before it gets better. Not too much time to figure out within the party, jeff mills, what theyre going to push forth and between parties what theyre going to put forth. Right now youre talking about weeks not months in terms of figuring this out i do think its part of the markets calculus in terms of where its priced right now. You still have 17 Million People unemployed you have 40 of jobs regained last month in leisure and hospitality. Weve seen whats happens with the virus since then we had Consumer Sentiment moderate a little bit last week. I think that all hinges back to filling this income gap. Weve seen it filled consumers have had more money in their pocket post virus than previrus because of the bolstered Unemployment Benefits. The fact of the matter is if we dont get things put into place, this sales trajectory in the overall economy simply isnt sustainable. I think we get something passed. I think its very difficult to expect delays on unemployment and even the mortgage relief theres no way they cant continue to roll that down, at least until theres some clarity on the same things that were there when they threw those pieces of aid to the public. So more good news for best buy i think stimulus checks are one way. Theres folks that need it and folks that dont some of that liquidity has found its way into the stock market. Its difficult to see why these dynamics would change with an administration who wants to push for them with an uncertainty around the virus and everyone believing we need to lengthen the ability for the economy to recover. I think thats what were going to get and i think the market is going to like it. Shakeups in the c suite. Gold surging to its highest level in years where should you hide out . A top technician will join us and tell us where to seek safety our Retirement Plan with voya gives us confidence. We can spend a bit now, knowing were prepared for the future. Surprise we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. Im good at my condo. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. Save without even leaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. 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