Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240712

With you. Really . The judge how are you . Are you said what have you got . Do you have like chambers there or like, what are you equipped to do if push comes to shove today. You have what do you have at home what have you got. And report on what we report on. Am i the only one. I filled in i filled in recently for a full week and they didnt play the theme music a single time. Hopefully they can make up for it today we didnt hear about it we started having fun. We nip that in the bud pretty quickly. Oh, this is you. Im sorry this is you. So you got that going. Im glad i got up this morning. Lets take a look at equity futures. We try to get a new record on the s p 500. Well see what we can get over the top there. Treasury yields on the rise as of late. 25 last week alone. Theres the ten year not doing too much not all that long ago. We have seen rates starting there and stocks have been on the move well see that new record on the s p this morning. The amount of money were sprinting, i dont think its a bad thing if we get yields up a little bit and maybe protect the green back a little anyway, on this weeks squawk planner well get a couple of key data points. Its a busy week of retail earnings when you hear from walmart, home depot, lowes and tjx among others a closer look now at the global markets. Good morning to you its good to see you on squawk box. Lets focus on the asian data for a moment we have japanese gdp numbers for the Second Quarter down 7. 8 that annualized down more than 27 . So the nikkei is weaker through the session. The fastest rate in record there but the stand out positive was the Chinese Markets here we got a rally the chinese Central Banks injectingly quiddity by rolling over loans to the tune of about 100 billion to Financial Institutions we had some weak numbers trimming its outlook on a 43 drop in half year profit but it didnt take the gloss of the stimulus helping the Chinese Markets higher what about europe. Or the European Market they didnt get some support and the argument being that well see increased demand for metals and other commodities as they come out of covid. Meanwhile we in europe have rising infection clusters at the moment and that is hurting sentiment. They saw 3,000 cases spain were seeing about 5,500 cases on friday. And its expected to grow again over coming days here which means germany has issued a fresh travel warning and that is on the travel stocks its not only travel stocks but its Hotel Companies and package holiday companies. The main victims of this sell off and dog whistle training i guess when we see the covid numbers drop people back into them right now. We see rising cases in europe and people deciding that is a good excuse to share some of the gains we may have seen in the travel and leisure sector. Back to you guys meantime, House Speaker nancy pelosi is calling the house back into sessions over tensions at the u. S. Postal service. Yesterday the Postal Service said it would postpone the removal of blue mailboxes until mid november because of customer concerns this is something playing out right before our eyes. Heres that statement. The Postal Service is election central. Is that okay with anybody okay all right. Well see. I hope newman has not got a bunch of ballots in his closet not everyone knows what im talking about. Remember newman on seinfeld opened his closet. He hadnt delivered mail for a month and a half. Is that what youre worried about . Newman. Yeah, im worried about wayne knight having a bunch of ballots. Im not saying which ballots not starting out there not going to do it not going there. Anyway, lets go here. Former mcdonalds Ceo Steve Easterbrook filing a lawsuit from his previous employee the company accused him of engaging in a sexual relationship with three employees and conspiring to keep those relationships secret who knew mcdonalds is seeking to force him to pay damages or strip him of compensation that he retained when he was fired. He says mcdonalds knew of the relationship with multiple employees when they offered him the separation agreement that allowed him to keep stock awards worth 37 million. Thats a lot of extracurriculars going on. Is it not . Not every ceo. Who knew looking at the guy. Do you ever look at somebody and say i knew it. I knew it. I knew this was going on. No. Hes not george clooney. Im not going to talk about peoples looks or anything like that its just unusual to just be all over the place like that were both happily married far be it for us to be able to understand if you will Something Like that, right yeah. Can i ask you a question. Thats right. Can i ask you a question about the nationals. Go ahead. Are you a fan modestly. Im a dodgers fan. Dodgers i bet yesterday put i took the under and it was 65 well thats a good bet. You must be loving it. Draft king. Well, yeah, look, we live in nmg new jersey so were able to place the bets which is good i dont know. Yeah. Im a nationals fan because im from the area but im really a dodgers fan because i grew up a dodgers fan. Thats where my loyalties lie. I bet on them and bet against the reds just like pete rose. I dont know if he of did that. Now youre never getting into the hall of fame you just admitted that he says he never did. I think that it came out later and i dont know i dont want to get in for a baseball player i grew up with charlie. For talent he was about right here. Youre treading very lightly. Hes smart. Im easing my way into it im easing my way into it. You dont know how far you want to go anyway, dow jones up about 18 points nasdaq up about 46 and s p might get there. I think its got about 8 more to go, 9 more to go when we come back, Scott Gotlieb with an update on the pandemic and later hell give us his update on several issues including the phase one trade deal and ban on technique and a lot more squawk box coming today. Hike Simon Pagenaud takes the lead at the indy 500 coming to the green flag, racing at daytona. Theyre off. In the kentucky derby. Rory mcllroy is a two time champion at east lake. He scores stanley cup champions touchdown only mahomes. The big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. Lets get an update on the pandemic and now cnbc contributors is on the board of pfizer and alumina. The latest oped in wall street journal is titled lifting lockdowns. And key to avoiding a recession. So its something to talk about and Michael Strahan of aei and certainly we can see how difficult this is going to be and its been likened to a dimmer switch. You dont just flip the economy back on but i think the dimmer, given what we have seen with some Economic Data and certainly with the averages of stock market averages it looks like were continuing to turn back on, doctor is that fair to say . Well, i think that thats right. One of the economists. He went through the economic literature with looking at what the impact was of the shutdowns and the stay at home orders and what the rebound was when those orders were lifted most states are open for business theres select images that are closed and you cant open them theres seating in restaurants and things like that but by and large, most businesses restraining activity now is consumers. Consumers havent boubsed back but were also seeing indications that consumers are gaining more confidence and reengaging with the economy. We said this on the show, china was able to restart their economy because they were able to get them back into state owned factories. Their consumers were going to work and not coming home and not going out at night or weekend as well and really dependent upon more confidence the virus is still circulating here so for the stimulus, what is se ens essential to get done. What is essential to your view. We need to remember theyre just going to bounce back and consumers are still going to stay away from these businesses the even if we get control of it, youre going to see activity and hospitality sectors. And how we support those businesses even if we dont see a second wave we just see a slow infection. Even if we get back 60, 70, 80 of consumers, thats what it is showing right now, you still have a hole in the economy of 6 or 5 . It just doesnt come back. Thats going to be hard to see a full rebound so you want to have support there to carry the economy through that challenge talked about immunity a few times. Its not totally understood. But when you say antibodies for three months does that mean you only have immunity for three months. Do you still have circumstance you lating cells that if your body saw the virus again the cells are there and make new neutralizing antibodies. Without having the same severity and disease. Can we hope for that doctor. Isnt that youll only have immunity for three months but youll absolutely have immunity in three months. They really only study a three month window they found people couldnt get reinfected within three months and they updated their guidance saying that they would be exposed to the infection you cant get reinfected theres another study as well that showed that people previously had the infection and we also now know that theres some immunity thats likely to be more enduring so even if you dont have certain antibodies youll have other immune cells that will become reactivated theres a lot of speculation around cross reactive tcells. And thats a result of other Coronavirus Infections they seem to be reactive that doesnt mean that they wouldnt prevent you from getting infected in all likelihood so picture around immunity is actually quite encouraging and what were seeing is this like other coronaviruss and that you do develop a period of immunity and youre not going to get reinfected and hopefully they last long enough that if you get reinfected in the future you wont have as bad of an outcome. Its scott. Good to see you this morning can you discuss the significance of the new saliva test approved by the fda its highly significant this is a test that is a saliva sample its also plead guilty cross validated on just about every Popular Platform for doing testing. So its easy to use. Its unlikely to be in limited supply because of shor tamgs in the of shortages in the testing supply chain its much like a pregnancy test. And you drop liquid on to paper. You get a result in 10 to 15 minutes. And its tens of millions of pieces of paper a month. They can be rolled out in places like schools and allow testing at the point of care. I think well see a lot of these innovations in the next month come on very quickly you see a lot of them submitted and you see a lot of them talk about academic experts and manufacturers that have submitted it but just like the saliva tests all of this is going to happen all at once. It takes time to move this through the process. And its what has been in short supply also see stories about infection rates of 17 and under continuing to go up. Can you just set the record straight on exactly where we stand. On younger people and infections a view that younger people are less likely to get infected. Theyre less likely to get symptomatic. Theyre probably just as likely to get infected but much less likely to have a bad outcome the data seems to suggest that and summer camps, schools, youre going to see more infection in the students. Hopefully were not going to see more symptomatic disease and step up to real outcome. They do seem less vulnerable but that doesnt mean no risk. Youre still seeing bad outcomes at a lower level than in older adults people that are asymptomatic and what is the parker what is it testing for. It is looking at the material from that itself that lets you extract it it requires a certain device. The end, when its all said and done and its the depressing part what is the total u. S. Population that you still think somewhere between 30 and 50 will have seen this virus before theres a vaccine. I think if we look at it well probably get to 30 by the end of the year based on the studies and the rate of infection. Some of the modeling for good groups validated that. Unless we see a real change in the trajectory of it its going to be a pretty even if you put the lowest mortality rate, the most positive not positive but t you know, not the worst one, thats a big number. Thats going to be a lot of deaths well, presumably more than people are going to be infected Going Forward are the ones that are less vulnerable. We can get down below. 5 it looks like the big studies and you figure around. 8 . Thats the infection mentality rate the case fatality rate looks like people have become symptomatic. That. 8 likely to hold a lot of studies now. It will come down. It will come down its declining we are doing a much better job and it should come down as we get into the winter. Hopefully or something. Thank you, scott it comes on halftime as well but bad news for you i now that might happen. I knew that might happen anyway, thanks coming up big news over the weekend from berkshire were going to talk about the moves in banks take a look at the biggest lbeig b wl. Iners if youil wel rhtack. At leaf blowers. You should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. And you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. Make ice. Making ice. But youre not mad because you have e trade which isnt complicated. Their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. Dont get mad get e trade and start Trading Commission free today. Dont get mad get e trade and start trading wow. Jim could you ipop the hood for us . . There she is. Turbocharged, right . Yes it is. Jim, could you uh kick the tires . Oh yes. Can you change the color inside the car . Oh sure. How about blue . Thats more cyan but. Jump in the back seat, jim. Act like my kids. How much longer . Exactly how they sound. Its got massaging seats too, right . Oh yeahhhhh. Oh yeahhhhh. Visit the mercedesbenz summer event or shop online at participating dealers. Get 0 apr financing up to 36 months on select new and certified preowned models. We embody that deep rooted history within our city. It took this pandemic for us to get uncomfortable, to pivot. But weve risen to the occasion. I love to say that we have survived the great depression. We have survived the recession and we are survivors. The French Health care company is buying the u. S. Company for around 3. 7 billion. Theyll buy all the outstanding shares and the acquisition will advance the presence and research. Im checking this out right now. Because i dont know what youre doing this afternoon youll be done by then 140. Utah jazz. The playoffs are here. Nba playoffs are starting. Both top seeds play tomorrow the Milwaukee Bucks buddy is you know those guys. Thats at 1 30 the early game and then the l. A. Lakers have a late game at 9 00 p. M. Can i ask you a question as long as youre here and i have a sports perpetrator so the nuggets are favored what difference does it make if youre playing at home there arent crowds . Maybe theyre favored for different reasons. Im just wondering how to play this this has nothing to do with it im going to watch this game today. This is very enlightening for me because i mean, you cannot have a sports conversation without it having some sort of betting angle for yourself and you know, thats interesting. Every sports conversation whether its baseball now or now the nba playoffs do you look through the prism of lets say that you, lets say that you only like teams that you love like the reds, the bengals, i cant really say that lets say that you only like teams so that limits your interest when is the last time that you were interested in a Major League Baseball game except for the dodgers . And im telling you, if you got 10 on the game, scott, its almost like, you know, ill bac you if you think youre any good at this. Who do you like in the denverutah game im going to pick the underdog probably and do a parlay and then you can get a big multiple they only need to win once in awhile i hear you. There i dont go. Anyway. Take us out of here. See you. You dont think the viewers like that conversation i think they do. Coming up. I dont think management likes it coming up, berkshire is making big and surprising moves that were just revealed in their sec filings. We have a complete run through coming up next take a look at u. S. Equity futures. See if we can get that closing high we opened virtually flat s p a few and then the nasdaq up 45 right back to squawk box as business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will. You can rely on the people and the network of at t. To help keep your business connected. Find a stock basedtech. On your interests or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. Theyre a little bit flat but you can see the nasdaq powering ahead once again the s p indicated up about 3. I think we need i think we need another ten or so to get to an all time high some Big Investments made big moves in the popular stocks. Berkshire hathaway took a statement. Maybe some of the stuff he liquidated its sbinteresting. We never know whether buffet himself is hand picked and what can you tell us now. Well get to the berkshire ones. This is about the latest round of regulatory disclosures. This is a snapshot as of june 30th this is the hedge fund run by david tepper run by warren buffet took Payments Technology in a big way for a theme in the Second Quarter they started new stakes and vis sa mastercard and paypal and square now that entire industry has been emerging as one of the market recoveries has taken hold just as an example, its about 30 since the march 23rd lows. Its worth 225 of market cap which makes it by the way more valuable than at t and twice as valuable as ibm from a market capper spe cap perspective. Buffets shot made large reductions cutting Jp Morgan Chase holdings by 62 and also by the way, completely got out of its stake in goldman sachs. Berkshire sold almost all of its common stock in petroleum those shares falling 2 this morning. And then berkshire also took a new position like you mentioned. It was worth around 565 million at fridays closing price. Thats one of the reasons why theyre up around 9 it is a lot of money and its not tichypically the size that see. I certainly understand the rational, obviously, right. I mean, just in general im surprised. I mean, you could say this too. Im wondering whether or not its not typical how many hedge funds and mutual funds out there really did take full advantage of the silver and gold surge during the course of the Second Quarter and into whats happening right now. I dont think a lot of them did. We report on the moves a lot but im not sure how many people monetized it dom, do you remember the obama stimulus and it was shovel ready and the out rage at 800 million. I do. The arra. 800 billion. Thats a rounding error today. Thats a rounding error. Dont even talk to me about this go ahead and spend that. It used to be that icon fuse billions with millions now i ccon fuse trillions with billions thats how crazy its gotten i keep talking about apple stories these days thats about the size of the physical stimulus thats going to be proposed out there its just its crazy to think about the size and scope of the numbers right now. Good old days we bring up mike meyer and talk about it thanks. You got it. I had someone request an animal orchestra its a crazy stock market. I miss the animal orchestra hopefully it will make a return. Maybe today. Who knows. Joe, thank you lets talk more about the market and investing with stocks near all time highs joining us now to the senior Portfolio Manager it takes stocks beyond that. Its more than fundamentals start revising estimates higher. And the numbers came in above the very low expectations. There is a belief that the economy can recover. Obviously whats going on in washington right now is going to be very critical to that theres a lot of good news already baked in though right. There absolutely is i couldnt agree with you more so we dont have what 22, 23 times forward. We dont have a lot of room for disappointment luckily last week some of the more consumer facing numbers, the retail numbers with an 8 year over year increase. It will be very important. A large chunk of the gdp its good to see the numbers come in reasonably well. Its gotten new life if you will but its been so many times ahead that i think its a show me story at this point how do your moves in the market reflect your view there. You are correct and you have seen that a couple of times already the past couple of months you still have a significant gap in terms of earnings expectations and we have taken money off the table and materials in energy earlier. And neutralize the positions before we would act more wed like to see more substantive evidence of recovery we need to see rates continue to move up a little bit if the value trade is going to work yes, you do the idea that everything is going to go back in some fashion is not going to be realistic were waiting for some pick up in some numbers that are more cyclicly based well talk to you. Thank you. All right thanks, guys coming up retail resur yegencreh founder of one venture dont miss our interview with the white house trade director the status of the phase one u. S. China trade deal the price at 16. Surging once again in the morning. This morning in premarket trading. Pretty unbelvae. lbeig bk. Iebl coming up, a busy week of retail earnings including home depot. Stocks been a major pandemic play up nearly 20 in the last three mohsnt stock slices. For as little as 5, now anyone can own companies in the s p 500, even if their shares cost more. At 5 a slice, you could own Ten Companies for 50 instead of paying thousands. All Commission Free online. Schwab stock slices an easy way to start investing or to give the gift of stock ownership. Schwab. Own your tomorrow. [ engines revving ] its amazing to see them in the wild like th shhh. For those who were born to ride, theres progressive. Squoo grood morning to you, scott. Forecasted to be higher because of a pandemic Home Improvement boom analysts i speak with say the real question will this be a record quarter they have a marleau and hitting alltime highs in the weeks before earnings for the first full quarter of this pandemic. Home improvement has become a bit of an american pastime 75 say they plan to start a Home Improvement project this Summer National association of Home Builders remarketing model index stands for 73 for q2 a sharp increase from q1 in march. They said they received more job requests as a result of july 19. That grew to 69 lowes, more do it yourself. As we look ahead to earning, a key metric is home sales they reported 80 growth in q1 they expect that level to remain the same in q2 back over to you all right, frank. We appreciate it very much thats Frank Holland thank you this mornings Retail Ecommerce Ventures is announcing the completed acquisition of distressed sports brand models this is the third major retailer along with pure one and dress barn that the investor has scooped up in the midst of the pandemic hes buying distressed well known brick and mortar brands to turn them into hopefully successful eretail businesses. Ty, this is a fascinating idea i like when things survive but, correct me if im wrong, looks like the brand is surviving in this case but not necessarily the work force or employees. Dress barn you acquired its 9,000 employees. Only 30 employees but the dress barn brand lives on. How do we my usual coanchor usually asks the question, how are we supposed to think about that a couple things as we acquire these brands, first off, a lot of these layoffs have already happened by the time we come in. Dress barn was in a bankruptcy situation. We bought it directly from ascena modells, pier 1, this had already gone through a bankruptcy most of the employees were already let off. In the long term although we are ecommerce focused, we see opportunity to open back up brick and mortar stores. You have to get clarity on whats happening here with the pandemic, how long its going to go we hope to bring back a work force. Ecom is surviving. We cant even fathom how they stayed in business this long with the amount just home office, some of these brands we can run it with 20 or 30 good programmers where they might have had 300, you know its really amazing that you started this in november with no idea youve seen what a lot of stayathome stocks have done to be positioned in this environment so difficult for so many people. Your Business Model seems like it was custom made to do well in this environment and you had no idea when you started, did you no idea would be it would be covid i started an ecommerce in 2001 i started way back when ge financial, ge capital. My Business Partner and i, dr. Alex mayer started in 08. Weve been preparing, but as the lenin goes, theres years where nothing happens and theres days where decades happened and i think that happened. I think this was inevitable. We just jumped forward what the world would have looked like in 2028 you would have seen the same thing happen amazons writing has been on the wall i started looking at acquisitions in 2013, 14, i looked at American Apparel it was the prices were high so weve sat on purpose for the last three, four years we looked at barnes noble. Didnt like the math i mean, we liked the math but didnt have the margin and safety we wanted precovid we started to see the cracks in the industry be large enough that the crisis came down, im a big buffet fan all investing is three words, margin of safety we wanted that margin of safety. Weve been looking at it for a while but were scooping up we also bought linens and things and Franklin Mint from sequential weve bot a u. K. Brand weve bought seven. Youre like a kid in a canty store, tai scott wapner wants to hey, tai, i have a quick question for you how do you know theres an ecommerce market for some of these brands if they havent been successful in brick and mortar, its not a given they will be successful. How do you get them to think modells versus niko or Dicks Sporting Goods some of the brands weve acquired, pier 1 and dress barn had 9 figure ecom when we bought them modells was of all of the acquisitions had the least emphasis on ecome. I think it was around 5 of the total 500 million in revenue thats one, like you said, modells is app interesting on i. It will be a little bit more challenging but we paid less we paid 31 million in an auction for pier 1 were getting that embedded ecom traffic. In modells we paid 2. 6 one thing, were not public at this point we dont need to take we want to right size the business maybe theyre not 500 million in revenue that modells can do and keep with dicks and so on we think theres a real market its a 131yearold brand. It has seven figure email lists. We look at the email list, text list and Monthly Business of the website. We do our Due Diligence a little bit differently. Its certainly a challenge like elon musk said, you get paid in proportion to the difficulty of the problems you solve. Hopefully my Business Partner and i can solve a little bit of it all right interesting. So youre going to think about going back into brick and mortar youve got a lot of quotes elon musk. But i think i like to read. Lenin, im pretty sure that wasnt lenin i think it was George Harrison that could be i think i dont think it was lenin anyway, tai, thank you someone is going to take me seriously, that i can always count on on twitter. Thats fine. You know, joe, after doing that segment, i think the most shocking thing is 3. 7 million, thats it, for a brand like modells that tells you where the world is and how its changed erov the last ten years well be right back. Before money, people traded goods. Tools, cattle, grain, even shells represented value. Then currency came along. They made it out of copper, gold, silver, wampum. Soon people decided to put all that value into a piece of paper, then proceeded to wave goodbye to value, printing unlimited amounts of money as they passed the buck to the future. Thats why its time for Digital Currency and your investment in the grayscale funds. Go digital. Go grayscale. That selling carsarvana, 100 online wouldnt work. But we went to work. Building an experience that lets you shop over 17,000 cars from home. Creating a coast to Coast Network to deliver your car as soon as tomorrow. Recruiting an ar good morning, the bulls look to continue their charge. Tiktok under fire. Theyre looking at a u. S. Ban on alibaba. How aboua 4,000 return on a hedge fund well see who achieved that as the second hour of squawk box begins right now good morning welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc im joe kernen along with scott wapner andrew and becky are off today was that too much . You said lets rock, i said i thought maybe if we were going to rock, maybe it should have been paige and plant might have been do you remember them or is that before your time . No, i remember them its a high bar. Either way, right . Its better than if you say the bert and ernie that would have stunk. Ill go with either one of the examples you have. You mentioned elevator. I even mentioned tyler steven tyler and well go with any of them. Hall and oats. I like hall and oats. U. S. Equity futures, meh. 2 points on the dow, 3 points. Nasdaq strong though, up about 46 go where no other s p average has gone before. Take a quick look at treasury yields this morning treasury, as we mentioned earlier, the 10year under. 7 of a percent. This is probably, i dont know, you watch them i think gold would be a good thing to check once in a while, too. The inverse of what were seeing in the treasury. Certainly related. Gold, silver. So many of the metals have been on the rise. The question, joe, is where is the dollar going to go that will have a lot to say about where gold goes and the other Commodity Trades that have worked pretty well, right . I dont know if id i dont know if id get too negative on the dollar, you know what i mean . Its in relation to everything else, right, scott when this is if this is ever all said and done, well probably have a pretty good economy at that point visavis the rest of the world but well see. Its never been a great thing to short the dollar for too long. With what the fed is doing and what congress is doing, sometimes you cant help but wonder about how stable the currency is going to be. Yeah. King dollar. King dollar. Making headlines, sanofi is buying a biotech principas novavax says it is starting the second phase of testing. The trial will take place in south africa it could enter a large final stage of testing by next month. The fda is giving yales covid19 saliva test used by the nba the emergency approval labs will charge only 10 per sample you heard dr. Gottleib talk about how quickly you could ramp it up, how cheap it is and how effective it could be. You mentioned nba. The playoffs start today a lot of people give alot of kudos to the nba commissioner with the bubble and the whole approach to playing under these very difficult circumstances and im excited about the day. I havent decided yet what im going to do, scott im ive had people say denver, ive had people say utah im going to have to think about it im going to have to think about it a little. Do you want me to let you know yes, i actually would now now im really intrigued i do want to know. Okay. And an over and under, got to think about that you do the parlay, you get four and five times what you put down did you see uncut gems im not like that. Im not like that, but youve got to see t. Adam sandler you should see it because he shows you what a parlay is i dont want to give it up in other headlines, shares of alibaba are under pressure this morning coming after President Trump suggested at a News Conference that he was considering a ban on chinaowned companies other than tiktok. Uber and lyft say they could end service in california as soon as this week as they fight an order requiring them to classify drivers as employees a judge gave them until august 20th to comply companies are pushing for a referendum in november that could exempt them from that law. Scott . Joe, thank you now to the trading week ahead. Joining us now is stephanie link, hightower chief officer and Jenny Harrington is gillman hill asset ceo and Portfolio Manager with us as well. Both of course cnbc contributors familiar faces from the hathe halftime report. Good morning. Stef, size up this week whats at steak. You hold a lot of the Retail Stocks that are reporting and thats going to drive the action this week. Yes, its going to be a very busy week. One last week of earnings, which is about 5 of the s p 500 the important part of it, its going to be a tell on the consumer there are haves and have nots. Do it yourself are beneficiaries of stay at home. The problem is the stocks are up so much and theyre not exactly cheap. Watching to see the reaction there. Walmart and target have moves. Its going to be a big focus of supply chain going to be a very big discussion of both companies you have the have nots, off pricers and target stores. After this week, youre back to the macro. Were going to slosh around a little bit after this week because were going to be hearing more about the fiscal debate, more about elections and watching Economic Data to see if the momentum that weve been seeing can continue. Yeah. Jenny, maybe youll get more clues as to whether the value trade, cyclical trade is for real depending on what these companies not only report for the past, but what they talk about for the futures. Right i think when i look at this, i dont think there are going to be any reporting surprises coming up. I think well know what it looks like for home depot versus ross stores even that i dont think is going to be terribly surprising. You know in the long term home depot is great ross stores are great. We know elle brands has challenges ahead i dont think the value trade or the have notes or the other 490 or however you want to characterize it, that will be interesting. The distinction with the retailers but what weve seen in the last few weeks is seeing a broadening of strength an whos starting to perform well id like to see that and i expect it to continue this week. Stef, what do you do with the banks. We got the 13f from buffet and he said he was selling down most of the stakes that he had in the banks although we know hes been adding on an almost daily basis for a period of time in names like bank of america i knew you were going to ask me about the banks they will recover and the economic momentum will continue because we have so much fiscal and Monetary Policy in place i think the banks can do well and that yields should gradually increase i dont think theyre going to run away from us, so thats why you want to be selective what ive done is im doing special situations for it. I do own wells fargo they have been incredible. Six new hires in the executive suite. You have to have patience. I like morgan stanley. I thought they had the best Second Quarter of all of the big banks. Then i know that a lot of people like master card and visa. Im going to take American Express. The stock is down 19 on the year i think travel and entertainment will come back and the valuation is really reflecting a lot of bad news very good Balance Sheets im going to be selective and pick my stocks with special situations its the same way, jenny. So many things are still current. Whether its paypal, square, visa, master card. Its kind of a play on whats working now. At least towards the end of this, the buyers and looking forward to a vaccine wells fargo, i love that we have three opinions here we have warren buffet who sold it we havestaff who added it. David tepper who added it. Thats what makes market it didnt make sense for us. There wasnt enough for a cash flow generation or yield flow. There is something for everybody. I think youre right on David Teppers call on the payment processors we also like staff owned American Express for the same kind of logic which is as this market comes back, as behavior returns to normal, American Express should be a beneficiary. The payment processors stepping aside weve looked at the portfolio and market and weve tried to cover it up into five categories of things that are long term unaffected, long term worse, longterm better, et cetera. The payment processors are longterm better for this. They were never theyve increased their trajectory and that will never decline. Its exciting and encouraging to see. Even some of the multiples even if the big multiples, i can justify owning those i dont, but i could stef, you know, what about disney i bring it up because, you know, you find out we discussed on our program last week that dan loan, now its revealed in his 13f, now were learning about disney with david tepper as well i dont think you own disney anymore, right no. I sold it back in february at about 145. I thought it was priced to perfection at that time and a lot of people liked it a lot of people were raising targets, reiterating buys. Its a Great Company and great management team. They did a great job in the Second Quarter in ternls of cost flow and my issue is, its a reopen stock i have plenty of reopen stocks as you very well know. I think they have a lot of challenges ahead i think disney has a lot of competition. I think they have to continue to invest aggressively. You wont see it on the bottom line as a result if you believe that the reopen is going to be successful, thats fine. I own others in terms of the visibility is better. I gotcha. I will see both of you on the half i hope this week stephanie and jenny, have a great day. Definitely. You, too. Thanks. Joe. Thanks, scott. Coming up, a new report on racial economic inequality all happening amid the covid crisis. First as we head to break, lets check some of this mornings other headlines. Nvidia is in exclusive talks to buy chip maker arm the takeover of the soft bank backed Company Valued at 40 ayllion pounds or 50. 4 billion. St tuned, youre watching squawk box on cnbc music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. You say the customers maklets talk data. S. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you switch up your wireless data whenever. I accept 5g, everybodys talking about it. How do i get it . Everyone gets 5g with our new data options at no extra cost. Thats good. Next item corner offices for everyone. Just have to make more corners in this building. Chad. Your wireless. Your rules. Only with Xfinity Mobile. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus, get 400 off when you preorder the new Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Welcome back to squawk box. A new study finds home depot with a 35 jump of daily foot traffic. The numbers come from unicast. Its featured in todays wall street journal the increase as consumers ramped up Home Projects good to see people are getting out. Youre right. And improving things you cant imagine the amount of work ive done around here just yesterday, unscrewed the light bulb wow finally got the right one to go in the right size it was a while but i finally was i dont know whether youre pretty handy like i am around the it sounds like youve made some big strides during the pandemic im happy to hear that. Its really bright. Really bright in here. More serious topic coming up here, scott. The covid pandemic has hit some communities harder than others exacerbating communities. Research from the hamilton project at brookings revealed that covid19 is the third leading cause of death for black americans and that disproportionate Health Impact has Serious Health complications. Former mayor of baltimore and panelist at the hamilton project, Stephanie Blake can i still call you mayor is that the conventional way either one. I answer to both when you come from a big family, you answer to just about anything. Yeah. Answer to when dinners served obviously, all right. Stephanie, thanks. There is the problem and then theres some solutions weve talked about this quite a bit. The disproportionate effect the pandemic has had on the minority community. Can you outline what the biggest problems are in terms of why its happening there and what are the best ways you think for society to address this. I think this pandemic has laid bear what many in the health circles and government circles have known theres gross disparities in health theres a health disparate when i was mayor we did a very comprehensive Life Expectancy Health Assessment for the entire city and the Life Expectancy from one zip code to the next was as far as 20 years difference in Life Expectancy. That is astonishing. So when you think about all of the people, the minorities, blacks, people of color, people who are vulnerable economically, working on the front lines, those are the same people that are having the Health Challenges so Health Disparities is a big issue and the income inequality has also impacted minority families disproportionately. Food insecurity, it seems like that would be one of the first things that we should it doesnt seem obviously, you know, its going to take funds, its going to take resources, but it seems like thats what we need to take care of first in a situation like this. One of the big detriments or obstacles we found was the food deserts. I was the first mayor to hire a food czar that really worked on food policy. We saw that about 20, 25 of the children in our city were living in food deserts, and that is a big problem. We also know that many families depend on school for their childrens meals thats why we had such a Robust Program for meals during the summer, so theres so many challenges that the social safety net for so many families, its become very weak because of this pandemic. Thats why it is important for us to get a handle on it and so im excited its Convention Week im excited to see what Vice President biden and senator harris have in store because they understand how important it is to take real responsibility for this economy and make sure our citizens are safe and healthy. Stephanie, minority businesses are more affected as well, more severely affected by the pandemic studies have shown. That seems like a longterm fix that were looking for there whether its seed capital, easier access to loans, banks that might be more open to funding. Is that part of your thinking as well absolutely. Youve really outlined all of the many of the on stack thals minority businesses face many face difficulty dealing with traditional banks many dont have the resources that others, the majority of companies have access to wealth outside where most people have access to their home, credit cards. When you start from behind and you have Something Like the pandemic that has made every business well, just about every business weaker, you really have a disproportionate impact on minority communities we talked with the harlem childrens zone a lot, stephanie, on this show. It all comes down to really its going to take a lot its going to take a cradle to job approach in a lot of neighborhoods, which includes education, after school, child care, all these Different Things it just watching it all during the covid crisis just makes it more front and center for what needs to be done even after the crisis is over are you familiar with the work being done there are you absolutely. Is that something that can be done in detroit, in oakland can it be done at scale in a lot of different cities . I definitely believe it can be done at scale they have taken a look at that model and taken various parts of it to try to create a continuum of development for our young people to prepare them for life. And i definitely think it is something that we should look at i think when government, when business, when communities, when civic organization, volunteer organizations come together with one accord and takes a look at the resources we have as a community and work with intention to create some pathways for our young people, i think that the sky is the limit but we have to get on the same page and we have to engage the people that we serve in a meaningful way very good thank you. We appreciate your time this morning, mayor we hope to see you again update on the progress being made well have you back. Would love to thank you. Okay. Scott. All right, joe thank you. Coming up, were going to tell you about a Hedge Fund Manager whos turning in a 4,000 return thats 4,000 return amid the pandemic. First, as we head to break, check out gold prices. Just below 2,000 an ounce now looks to get a little bit of a lift today stay tuned, youre watching squawk box here on cnbc. You should be mad at forced camaraderie. And you should be mad at tech that makes things worse. But youre not mad, because you have e trade, whos tech makes life easier by automatically adding technical patterns on charts and helping you understand what they mean. Dont get mad. Get e trades simplified technical analysis. And whether we connect pnc kover the phone, online,ing. Or face to face, were here to help utilizing our resources as one of the nations largest banks and a local approach with a focus on customized insights. So youre ready for today. Incredible investing story to tell you about. A Hedge Fund Manager generating returns of more than 4,000 which included the pandemic selloff. Leslie picker is telling us who did it and, leslie, how. Thats right. The firm is universa it made investors more than 40 times their amount thats 4,144 net return on capital. Its tail risk hedging its a big doomsday bet. Its a cocktail of algorithmic investing. You can imagine how the volatility earlier catapulted their returns to the stratosphere unive universa with 6 billion in assets gave back some. Helpers unwound the strategy in january citing high costs associated with little benefit and chose instead the conventional tactic of diver diversification for Risk Mitigation reports show californias bailout had a payout is tail risk hedging Still Necessary . Well ask that question and more when we speak with the founder and cio mark spitznagel. His first tv interview since posting those 4,000 returns, guys with a market, leslie, back towards new highs and, you know, a lack of volatility, you obviously raise the issue of whether that strategy not whether or not its necessary, more so whether it would work. Right what the return profile would look like. They would argue this is the perfect time to check if things look frothier. Thats in the eye of the investor as to what comes next interestingly enough, a source close told me universa has posted it every year since the inception. Clearly will there are a rising concern and subsequently the long bull market that followed they think an option strategy that is systematically based and so they deal with something called convexity where they try to capture significant up side even for little protection cost. So its pretty interesting well be sure to ask him about that at 10 a. M. Yeah. Well be looking forward to that interview. Leslie picker, thank you very much got to be in the top quintile you would think. Finally a hedge fund that might justify the fees i can lose money myself and i could probably ive seen a lot of the performance of some of the hedge funds i know i could lose that much easily and not pay 10 and 20, whatever the hell it is. Good to see there might be one worth no guarantee of future success. Still to come on squawk box, 2020 president ial election kicks into overdrive this week what the Democratic National convention, well talk about what investors should know is Arthur Brooks. That is next first as we head to break, check out this mornings winners and losers were coming right back. Flexshares may look simple on the outside. But inside every etf. There are untold hours of careful construction. Infinite what ifs . And contingency plans. Creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. Tap untapped potential. And strengthen confidence in you. Flexshares. Powered by over a century of investment expertise before investing consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. For a prospectus containing this information. When it comes to parenting, youre a pro. You know reflexes are key. You know your kid doesnt step around puddles. And wet shoes, not cool. You know what else isnt cool . Those cheap leaky diapers. Because with luvs, you get the prolevel leak protection youre looking for. Luvs, parent like a pro. Welcome back to squawk box this morning take a look at futures how the day is shaping up. Look at ibm. Theres the futures board. Pretty flat. Dow flat s p 500 up closing high 3386. 15 weve got our eyes certainly tuned to that. Technology looks like its going to have a pretty decent day. Weve showed you ibm ibm announcing a new Data Center Processor that can handle triple the load by its predecessor. Samsung has been tapped to produce the new chip joe. Thanks, scott coming up, Arthur Brooks on capitalism, the election and what investors should know were going to see the dnt, Democratic National convention its virtual but its coming you can watch us live on the go on the cnbc app. Were coming right back. Welcome back to squawk box. Futures, s p is going for a new closing high today we have been fluctuating a little bit you can see we would open higher across the board news breaking on huawei. Reuters is reporting the Trump Administration will further tighten restrictions on the Chinese Company. That report says they will move to prevent huawei from obtaining semiconductors without a special license. Firms developed or produced without software and reports say its used to prevent huawei from circumventing export controls. New report, new action joe, weve got Peter Navarro coming up before the end of the program. Another thing to talk to him about. I know. Red meat lets see what he says he always comes loaded, doesnt he loaded for bear. Something to look forward to have you got your questions ready for him . I do. Theres a lot to talk to him about. No kidding did you know this was happening this week . Its im going to ask arthur about this the Democratic National Convention Kicks off tonight with vermont senator Bernie Sanders and first Lady Michelle obama. For a look at what to expect on jobs, economy and taxes. Arthur brooks, aei president emeritus professor with Harvard Kennedy school, contributor for the atlantic and the book the art of happiness. Im always happy to be with you, joe i cant see you right now, but i can imagine you and that makes me happy thats awesome. Lets start with just the way this is going to be presented virtually. Right. How is that different from previous conventions not going to be quite as easy to get all fired up, is it . Watching this virtually. Its almost like the sporting events they pipe in when someone hits a home run, they pipe in music. Wow, this is great maybe they need to pipe something in, maybe a laugh track no, no, no. Its like the way im doing my lectures at harvard im hoping for the best in a way. Its hard to cocreate the atmosphere when theres no audience were all getting used to it whats it like doing the show when you dont have the Community Around you its very different. Its a very different discipline, isnt it yes lets get to the actual substance of whats happening. So do you put bernie on first to get him out of the way this isnt really what we want to do, relax were not going here or do you put him on first because this is the heart and soul of the Democratic Party at this point whats going on there . They put him on first because a lot of people wanted him to be the democratic nominee they want to keep those people around they dont want them all to split. They want to make sure they understand Bernie Sanders has a real voice in this deal. Hes important enough hes going to kick this thing off with a fire and brim stone speech about fairness, capitalism and all of the stuff you and i know and love. Arthur, we saw what happened. Were not stupid when it looked like he was going to be the nominee joe biden was left for he was nowhere until that comeback that he had and the reason was people looked and said, oh, my god, we might run Bernie Sanders why even pretend to embrace that extreme ideology. Theyre trying to have their cake and eat it too m this is a typical thing in politics republicans would do the same thing. They saw Jeremy Corbyn take over the labor party and they saw donald trump take over the Republican Party four years earlier with the results that they didnt like either. The result was, lets try to continue to be mainstream but lets keep trying to keep the people who like Bernie Sanders around this is their attempt to do it the empirical question is, does it work . Who knows. As the week goes on, im just interested in how each speaker threads that needle between wanting to bring this economy back and wanting, you know, to be compassion natd, you always hear from that were going to have a lot more government i dont know which party is which. A lot more social spending in the case of democrats. Im not sure that it always gets to where its intended what are we going to see are we going to see a fiscally responsible Democratic Party just a huge give away for college and, you know, health care for all how are they going to walk that line tons of promises. Tons nobody gets up in the convention and says im not going to do stuff, im going to sit here they get up and make all kinds of crazy promises at convention. Thats what the convention is about. Theyre going to start off and talk about how if you elect joe biden president of the United States the covid is going to be called manageable, managed, labor markets will come back just elect this guy and the covid problem will recede dramatically go back to the old fairness. Thats going to come back in a big way. There are going to be a million promises for the expansion of the welfare state of social Welfare Benefits in america today. People are going to have to decide, are these things believable are they affordable . Is this the country that we actually want . And thats going to be the big question we had a rough three days in new york city again in terms of gun violence and other things. How do they i mean, they can, i guess, fall back on Gun Legislation in the midst of a lot of what were seeing in terms of rising crime rates, whatever you want to attribute it to. How do they approach the whole law and order, police issue thats been i dont see it on all the networks they dont talk about the violence per se unless it involves the correct narrative politics are to the right and left you cherry pick the narrative you want as opposed to reporting the news as it is, which is a big problem. Both parties are in crisis right now, joe, you and i both know this the only time were going to get back fair and square to what the country needs is when we get back to the ethos of american selfimprovement its personal entrepreneur unusual sh ship. Were looking for ourselves. Neither party is talking about this populism on the right. Populism on the left bat this back and forth. When the parties actually compete, they make a better environment so every Single Person watching, rich, middle class and poor can lift themselves back up, thats going to be the aspirational inspiring america people want to get behind right now were not there. Were going to have the give away contest in the political conventions. Its not going to inspire me too much i dont know about you. No. I dont know i dont know where we are. I look around sometimes and im wondering, arthur. Im trying to love everyone. Thats your thing. What is your thing, love every how does that work . Matthew 5 44, love your enemies. Very practical message nobody has been insulted into agreement. Insult the other guys when theyre not there, right make sure youre insulting them not in their presence so you can lock down on the people through fear and hatred on your own side thats the reason why he has a personal empowerment is the only message that can endure. Its been a rough year. You know what, joe, its going to get better. Its going to get better it absolutely is going to get better. You dont know that. I do know that. That light at the end of the tunnel might be a huge train headed right for us. Yeah, but you know historically speaking, its actually these crucibles that make americans wake up and say, what is the country we want to be it is not a country where we hate our neighbor because he votes republican or she votes democrat 94 of americans hate how divided weve come and were going to turn on the populus republicans and well go and lift people up thats the reason people like to watch this show, is because its about a entrepreneurial america that has a future. Fundamentally, thats why this is an inspirational show to watch. This is about the startup life and country. Thank you you as well i know things are definitely going to be better for you we have the halftime report. Scott, we have that to look forward to would you like to talk to arthur scott . Yeah. Will you just you were just listening and taking it all in with arthur, right i was i was wondering how long i was wondering how long it was going to be before they turned that sound around about why squawk was such a great program. You need to run that again coming in from a break it is inspirational, aspirational isnt that what we try to do around here . Watch when we go to break i think its pretty. Maybe the 8 00 hour all right. I know how max myers opera s operates news this morning that the Trump Administration will first tighten restrictions on Chinas Huawei check out this mornings biggest nasdaq stay tuned, youre watching squiek box on cnbc come on in, were open. All we do is hand you the bag. Simple. Done. We adapt and we change. You know, you just figure it out. Weve just been finding a way to keep on pushing. Webefore money, peopleg a way tools, cattle, grain, even shells represented value. Then currency came along. They made it out of copper, gold, silver, wampum. Soon people decided to put all that value into a piece of paper, then proceeded to wave goodbye to value, printing unlimited amounts of money as they passed the buck to the future. Thats why its time for Digital Currency and your investment in the grayscale funds. Go digital. Go grayscale. Simon pagenaud takes the lead at the indy 500 coming to the green flag, racing at daytona. Theyre off. In the kentucky derby. Rory mcllroy is a two time champion at east lake. He scores stanley cup champions touchdown only mahomes. The big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. Apple facing concerns about abuse in its power joanna stern is joining us and a cnbc contributor and will powers, Senior Research analyst at baird joanna, apple goes to the Hill Tim Cook largely stays out of the cross hairs. Its all the focus on others now were understanding why tim cook was sitting there if you think back to two or three weeks ago, the other ceos, jeff bezos, Mark Zuckerberg and sundar had less than that, half of that. The focus was on the app store i dont think the regulators and lawmakers had really grilled him enough there about how this could harm consumers now with this ep peck battle were see how this is affecting consumers and how the cost has been passed on to consumers. What do you think is possible as a result of this . Bad pr for a 2 trillion company or trillion dollar company. Depends on the day at this point i think its a marketing issue amongst younger users, people who love these games. A lot of this is around gaming right now this is about epic and fortnite, but last week we saw apple is saying these new cloud gaming services, stadia, apple cant review each game apple cant make money off of each game. At the center of this is gaming right now, but really this is a much larger issue with lots of App Developers from the smallest ones to the biggest ones, amazon, tinder pushing back against apple and the abusive or the overpowering laws or financial gain that they get from the app store so, will, bad pr. A marketing issue. Thats how joanna describes it is there any stock risk as a result of that well, look, sure, scott there are puts and takes to the argument here. No question apple is one of the dominant mobile platforms. There are a number of subscribers out there. Services has been a laser focus area for investors its up 20 of revenue 15 this last quarter. The app stores camp does that its important to step back and remember the reason Developers Want to come to the apple ecosystem, because they know its the best mousetrap out there. They put resources at risk to develop a platform that attracted developers in the first place. Yeah. Its a great point the question is who needs who more i think thats really the question here. Yeah. Scott go ahead, will. Theres interesting Historical Context when you step back if you look at the period preiphone, you go back to 2005, 2006, the gate keepers at that point were the wireless carriers it was at t, verizon, sprint at that point and all of the carriers globally. They collected the socalled toll fees of might have been 30 to 50 so when apple entered the market, scott, that actually looked pretty good on top of that, the developers had to negotiate separately with all of the carriers on a global basis. When you step back, apple brought the market a disruptive product. Thanks so much. I can remember farther back than that. Im dating myself. We sold software through boxes and tim cook makes that argument as well. Guys. Joanna, will, thanks to you so much. Thanks, scott coming up the top corporate headlines. Stock movers, both market guidance from well respected technician Katie Stockton. Youre watching squawk box on cnbc and im here with nicole and miles and were out to find the top looks for day one back to school at Dicks Sporting Goods and so we want to find something thats going to grab everyones attention the variety and selection is crazy bucket hat bucket hat this would be a fire first day fit. Definitely making a statement with that. Go dicks. Whether youre going back to School Online or inperson, get the brands that make a statement. Day one starts here. Good morning a big week for the markets begins right now we have a slew of retail earnings where well hear about joe bidens thoughts nancy pelosi is calling lawmakers back to the white house. And is it american ban on alibaba the next front in the u. S. Tech war with china the Trump Administration trade advisor Peter Navarro talking about news just out of tightened restrictions on huawei the final hour of squawk box begins right now. Good morning and welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. Im joe kernen along with scott wapner becky and andrew are off today still on record watch this morning for the s p 500. U. S. Equity futures indicated up kind of mixed. Up a little bit on the dow down a little. Been around the flat lines most of the morning we are seeing the possibility of the s p opening higher this morning. Whether we get to those new highs, we wont know immediately. Well see. Nasdaq is strong treasury yields just below. 7 of a percent. Easy to say it, scott. News just breaking on huawei the Commerce Department will move to have a special license leading up to thursday when they accept the partys nomination and the coronavirus will make the convention and its all virtual. Senator Bernie Sanders republican, john kasich and former first Lady Michelle obama. Gold is new investment for warren buffets half file. Its risen 23 since the start of the Second Quarter. 13 f also revealed cuts to its stakes in wells fargo and j. P. Morgan chase as well as a complete exit french pharmaceutical giant sanofi had the u. S. Biotech firm four that and that post represents a premium allergy related diseases markets and drama in d. C. Were two biggest stories this morning. Ylan mui joins us to talk about the Postal Service and mailin ballots. Good morning to you. Reporter good morning, scott. The Postal Service has become the center of controversy in washington because of the election Corporate America is worried, too, because the u. S. Mail is so important to the economy that much became clear during the pandemic when we saw the volume of shipping and packages jumping 53. 6 in the Third Quarter as we began buying everything online. Marketing mail is down 37. 2 first class mail jumped 6. 4 sending the post office into an even deeper financial hole major companies, amazon, ebay, etsy and cvs calling on congress to authorize 25 billion of emergency funding to help stabilize the post office. Cuts in service were threatening americas smallest businesses. 70 of micro businesses say they use the post office according to an internal survey and they spend an average of 359 a month on shipping. Just last week the post office said its going to have to hike the prices of commercial packages ahead of the Holiday Season those increases will be between 5 and 6 to 13 . House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will call lawmakers back to vote on a bill that would force the Postal Service to maintain the operations to the level back in january. That doesnt do anything to stop these price increases or to increase funding for the Postal Service. Guys, back over to you i dont know what to do there. Just in general over the years, ylan, about the post you cant i guess you cant price it where the free market would price it always has to be subsidized. Nagging problem year after year. Needs some government assistance i dont think its going to get any easier with all of the competition and everything else. I dont know do you have a solution for me . Long term . I dont have a solution for you, joe, but i will say the solution that the post office has asked for is even more money. I mean, 25 billion democrats put into the heroes act is not as much as theyve said it would need theyve asked for 25 billion in emergency funding and loans and 25 billion to help modernize operations as you said, this is a long term systemic problem that has become exacerbated by the pandemic. What do you do to stabilize the Current Situation . That is what lawmakers are facing now. All right ylan, thank you. Appreciate t. Were probably talking not going to be over when were talking about this next year, im sure. Thanks lets get over to dom chu and key stocks hey, dom. Joe, lets kick off the morning movers with shares of. Jd. Com the Chinese Company posted better than expected revenues. There was a jump in active mobile customers they saw a 40 rise of mobile customers in june versus the same last june next up shares of nvidia which are close to 2 , 75,000 shares of prechip volume. Theyre in talks to buy arm holdings according to a report from the u. K. s Evening Standard they cited sources familiar. Arm is backed by softbank and separately susquehanna boosted the target price to 540 bucks a share. Then there are shares of General Motors which are higher by 1. 5 . Roughly 60,000 shares of volume. The automaker gets a shortterm buy recommendation from analysts in deutsch bank. They cited a market under appreciation of the possibility that gm can spin off the electrical vehicle unit. By the way, barrick gold, newmont gold, kinross, some of the names out there higher with sympathy with an investment in barrick gold ill send things back to you franco what franconevada. Nevada. Nevada you and i had this conversation. Im going to say nevada. It didnt sink in im going to say nevada just for you. Okay. Its not just for me, its for nevada its for the people that live in the state call nevada. Thank you. Thank you good, because thats how you say it joining us now to talk about the market technicals are telling us, Katie Stockton founder and managing partner of fairlead strategies. I read the first line here, katie, i was excited you say a technical market breakout of the s p, which were all watching today because we dont have that far to go, would signal a new longterm up side target of 3775 on the s p based on a measured move thats about the last positive thing you said in the notes. Everything else scares me. So were over bought from a lot of different metrics can you go over a lot of that . And if we do at this point, were at the ultimate resistance of the old high, which is something in and of itself you say a 5 pull back based on exhausting the breadth looks exhausting and also just the percentage bullishness makes it look like theres going to be a pause in the meantime . Right we have to differentiate between short and long term here the long term of that 3775 assuming we ultimately get a breakout, thats very promising momentum it is positive across all time horizons we do have up side exhaustion to suggest even if we reach new highs this week, which is likely based on the s p 500 and not proximity of 3394, that well see a pull back before the breakout is made decisive. For me decisive means two weekly closes above we can design that to future up side however, sentiment as you mentioned is such that its overly bullish or extremely greedy now this is the first time based on that great index that mike santoli likes so much since january. Thats a meaningful number its tending to lead peaks in the s p 500. Based on the support of the s p 500, pull back is 5 to 10 range would be likely on back end that type of sentiment. And breadth is overbought. You know how long that would take or how sharp the break would be, and i can think of, you know, we all get the fundamental reasons why something happens, i can think of a lot of things coinciding with why the market might sell off. Would you it shake out the complacency . If so, it will be quick and scary. I think so. Bull markets are fast and furious and they shake out that sentiment quickly. Its good and bad news what it tells us is we should continue hedging into additional strength one metric is viewers at home can watch very easily is the vix or Cboe Volatility Index im looking at it in a 20 Day Moving Average if we see the vix get above that level, that to me sort of is a risk metric for the s p 500 which is inversely correlated and would be a reason to hedge exposure with a time frame of, say, 2 to 4 weeks. How about the rotation of growth to value . Does this work how would you position it . Its often fleeting and i dont think this time is any different. In early may to june we saw value stocks out perform as of early july we saw value stocks outperform. Weve seen that from small cap stocks which have value exposure we do have signs of shortterm exhaustion or benchmarks like the pure value index, like the russell 2,000 index that support a pull back here in the coming weeks so i think we dont want to chase these small caps, chase the value stocks expect theyre going to resume longterm trend of under performance versus growth. It becomes a bit more correlated i am looking for growth to outperform from the long term. How about quickly gold and the ten year Interest Rates, anything significant on the horizon . Yeah. Theyve broken out big longterm breakouts. Signs of shortterm exhaustion in gold and silver id be looking for buying opportunities there. I think youll see that in the next week or so on treasury yields we have seeing some there. They do face resistance essentially in line. Katie stockton, we appreciate it been a big help over the last year or so in watching these things you try to stay agnostic to the backdrop of all of this stuff. The market tells us what its going to do. We cant tell it what we expect it to do we can but it doesnt work. You can try yeah, we can try. Oh, we do. We do. Watch the show thank you. Coming up, the covid19 pandemic has made this summer anything but easy for the nations airlines, but things could be about to get even more difficult. Well explain why coming up. With the clock ticking on a potential u. S. Tiktok ban, the president is looking at cutting ayf another piece. St tuned youre watching squawk box on cnbc some Companies Still have hr stuck between employees and their data. Entering data. Changing data. More and more sensitive, personal data. And it doesnt just drag hr down. It drags the entire business down with inefficiency, errors and waste. Its ridiculous. So ridiculous. With paycom, employees enter and manage their own data in a single, easy to use software. Visit paycom. Com, and schedule your demo today. Welcome back a mixed opening. Nasdaq is Strong Technology strong. Record watch on the s p. Well see if we reach those levels when was it, scott april . Thats not that far. Thats not that long ago it may not be a v whampt do you call something that looks like that i dont know im going to look that up. My high school. Xavier jim herman won that. Hes a saint xavier alumni shout out to jim. I actually did see that i actually did see that. Billy missed that putt at the end. Yeah. Broke away he wasnt expecting. Yeah, i saw it. Hes a real journey man, herman hes a bomber. Awesome for anyone that went there. All right lets talk about the airlines for a moment the Airline Industry about to enter a critical period. Expecting to lock in the september schedules. Phil lebeau joins us with more on that front. Good morning, scott youre going to see september schedules locked in and the early plans are starting to be formulated american out on saturday night with the formal schedule for september. They are trimming it you see fewer people flying in september than august. Theyll be down 359 on september from last Year International remains dead in the water. Heres the issue we have seen passenger levels plateau between 70 and 75 compared to the same time last year if you look at this chart, its very clear that you are not seeing the up tick that the Airline Industry is expecting. The big focus right now is whether or not there is a second c. A. R. E. S. Act that is passed. The current guarantees for jobs end on september 30th. If theres another c. A. R. E. S. Act, another 25 billion allocated to lock the jobs in place through the end of mash, th then its a different story. Planning for layoffs that will happen on october 1st. Theyve sent out the warn notices to all the union members. They know what they have to do come october 1st the question is whether or not that is averted with another 25 billion if they ever do a stimulus deal, when that happens. Yeah. If one doesnt happen, phil, how much more do you think would service drop off oh, youll see a pull back, especially in smaller cities american is laying in plans for Cutting Service to about 24, 25 small to mediumsized markets. This is the interesting thing, scott. They want air service to their district if its air service thats been there, they want to keep it there. Thats the incentive for people in congress. Lets come up 25 billion its not just guaranteeing the jobs for all of the airline employees, it would lock in service that otherwise the airlines would say get rid of it american is not alone. The other airlines are saying, were not making money flying these smaller routes well pull back. Not surprised to hear that. Phil, thank you. For more on the state of the airlines as we enter the critical weeks, seth kaplan is here how bad do you think its going to get well, its not even a question of what i think we can look in that crystal ball industry wide domestic seats for september looking to be 52 of what they were a year earlier. The big news there is that for several months that had been increasing each month was a little better than the equivalent month a year later ever since the low point in may this finally is a reversal in that trend because they schedule less doesnt mean demand doesnt come back a little bit, but clearly theyre not feeling too bullish. In terms of the stimulus, an interesting thing, too, to consider in some ways its actually a bigger deal for the stronger airlines you would think that the weakest airlines of all would be counting the most at 25 billion. In some ways 25 billion net for the airlines, thats partly just kind of a pass through to their employees. And some say, look, were going to layoff a lot of people as you have an airline like southwest, delta trying everything they can to keep people employed. That means keeping people employed pro ducttivelily. The bottom line is, youre not going to get any meaningful return to service until theres a vaccine, right especially not why would you get it in september . This cant be surprising news to anybody. You have people going back to school and then anemic. Improvement month scheduled to be out. A new record chart the bill show. Maybe things wouldnt be so bad. Its better than a sunday earlier. Joe, its kind of like what gottleib was talking about people feel comfortable the Business Plan they sent you. Bring everything along that is the problem. All right. Thanks, scott. Coming up, Top White House trade advisor Peter Navarro joins us live with the governments latest move against huawei maybe a ban against alibaba. Well also ask him about the much behind 700 million government loan to kodak thats now under investigation. Remember, we had the kodak chairman on that day after all the volume increase the previous week and he was like, yeah, well, it was the best kept secret really thats what you call a sreect . Youre watching squawk box on cnbc at cdw we get that your it staff is beyond busy. Theyre on the job 24 7 so they sleep when they can. Cdw services can help. Our experts will design orchestrate and manage your most complex technology. So your it people have more time to innovate and get some shut eye. That sounds great. I got malware on my shirt. Should we wake him . Probably should but lets wait until the updates complete. To free up your it staff you need managed services by cdw. People who get it. Coming up, fresh manufacturing data out of new york and then Peter Navarro. Welcome back to squawk box. Rick santelli here live from cme hq with breaking news. August read on Empire Manufacturing in and around gotham expect a number between 14 and 16. Disappointment here at 3. 7 up 3. 7 for the month of august that follows 17. 2 which, of course, was the first positive number we had after we went negative in march. March, april, may and april, of course, the big minus 78. 2 historic read. It is still a disappointing number even though it has turned positive weve heard earlier the august builders at 78 tied the alltime high of 78 from 1998 both the series of numbers, empire and Home Builders index started in 1985. As we continue to monitor whether Interest Rates can do better higher as they did last week, they are already easing back a bit really i think one of the catalysts was a nasty 30 year bond option. Yields have been moving higher for several weeks as the notion of real negative rates seems to have set in. At least for the moment theyre drifting a little bit lower especially on the long end joe, back to you okay. Rick, made my day. You said higher i think three times and you said empire. Anyway fastmoving developments higher in the growing rif with china around technology. We got word a short time ago that the Trump Administration will further tighten restrictions on chinese tech giant huawei the report says that the Commerce Department will move to prevent huawei without a license. The president said his administration was looking at banning chinese ecommerce giant alibaba following threats over the last few weeks to ban tiktok joining us is Peter Navarro, assistant to the president and director of white house trade and Manufacturing Policy you obviously have the president s ear on this, peter how much of this are you involved with in terms of the president s thinking and whats behind the latest idea for alibaba . Hey, joe, good to see you healthy and safe here. Look, this is a full interagency Government Support for this ban on huawei. Got nothing to do with me, everything to do with president donald j. Trump being the toughest president on china, not just on the economy, cracking down on the trade practices, but also in the National Security sphere as the president likes to call huawei, spy way. As you know, joe, this Chinese Company got its start by ripping off Companies Like nortel and others for their technology. Its like fruit of the poison intellectual property theft to begin with in both the software and hardware can burrow into our society, our economy, our businesses the president says thats not going to happen on his watch so just progressively were rachetting down the pressure it was wilbur ross today doing his thing over at commerce so expect much more of this president defending this country against china, efforts to steal our wealth and prosperity. So there were some ways around the previous things we did with huawei. This will help and they were still circumventing that this will help in terms of export controls and it wont no back door channels for huawei. Its a whole government thing whether its the state department, commerce, cia, the department of defense. I mean, everybody is on board with this. I remember the famous cover with nixon, were all kansians. In america, were all china hawks now. For good reason. In the middle of this last decade they stole all our jobs using things like massive subsidies, intellectual property theft, hacking our computers now what theyve done to us is basically infect this country with a deadly china virus thats killed over 160,000 americans, cost us trillions of dollars in our wealth and really created some headwinds were all china hawks now, joe but were also still, i guess, like trying to live up to our end and chinas living up to its end on the phase 1 the president was on another network saying china is more than living up to the trade deal in terms of corn, soybean and beef orders. I think that was on fox and friends earlier. So, i mean, is that more than living up to it . Theyre doing everything weve expected on the phase 1 . You were on not too long ago and there was question whether phase 1 was going to continue. Theyre absolutely keeping their word so far on the purchases and, indeed, the Chinese Communist party bought epic amounts of corn, soybeans and buying more beef than ever before, pork thats a really, really good thing, joe phase 1s on track the interesting news, i wont call it the bad news, is that it seems like the Chinese Communist party has forged a coalition with the Democratic Party and the mission now is to get donald trump out of office. The chinese obviously wants him out. The Democratic Party wants to take over the reins of power heres whats interesting to me. As we watch whats going to unfold this week at the democratic convention, youre going to see a big bet, joe, a big bet by the Democratic Party on one thing theyre going to try to beat donald j. Trump not on policy, simply on blaming him for the pandemic thats what youre going to hear all week donald j. Trump, its his fault. Ill tell you, theres only one president in the world whos responsible for killing over 160,000 americans and thats the unelected president of the Chinese National party our task here is to basically focus on the mission my job is to make sure we have all the ppe, the therapeutics, the vaccines, all the manufacturing capacity bring our supply chain home and thats what were focused on. Were going to were basically going to just keep doing what weve been doing in terms of creating jobs for america, but it is interesting to me that all the dems want to do is blame the president. You never hear them talk about the Chinese Communist party infecting this country that should be happening but i predict it wont. Hey, peter, scott wapner. Good to see you this morning the judge how are you . Im good, thank you its good to see you do you want any Chinese Company to be able to operate in the United States . Whether its tiktok, wechat isnt that a provocative question to hit me go ahead let me finish. I dont know where you go from there. Will you move will you move will you move to delist will you move to delist Chinese Companies from exchanges. Is that the next step . You know why im here after almost four years . Because i know im not the president. Those are the kind of questions for the president , for the interagency. Im just the guy who spends most of his time now, ironically, trying to save lives in america by standing up production for things like swabs, masks, and all of that stuff. So thats not a question that i really can answer. Thats a question for this whole of government. I go back to assessing china as a threat. At the beginning forgive me for interrupting you. At the beginning of the interview the way joe introduced you is you have the president s ear. Are you actively trying to convince the president or others that that would be the next step is to try and Delist Companies and prevent chinese ipos. The other reason why im still here, scott, is because what happens in the oval stays in the oval and whatever i do or do not say to the president in conversations certainly is not going to be restated here so lets be clear about that. In terms of the conversation we have today, clearly we have china. They came to the table they signed a phase 1 deal theyre abiding by the deal. At the same time theyre clearly biding their time waiting for the election hoping joe biden will get elected i dont know if youve heard of the wumao army, but one of the things thats going on is the Chinese Communist party is wagging informational army the wumao army is millions of chinese that get paid to troll our internet and push antitrump messages, pro biden messages i looked at whats going on here with our democracy its the scariest as ive ever seen its become a tool like the Chinese Communist party to influence whats going on here as the president loves to say, lets see what happens in november in the meantime, would he have to be on guard. I know joe has more for you i just want to ask you one more question sure. About china. Is it microsoft or bust when it comes to tiktok . Would the president be willing to entertain another buyer from the United States coming in . Im not actively involved in that negotiation thats the domain of treasury secretary mnuchin and nsa obrien. Thats a question i simply cant answer what i can tell you is this. The rationale for the policy of banning tiktok, wechat, perhaps others is simply that these are tools where they collect information that goes back to servers there. That can be used by the Chinese Communist party or Peoples Liberation organization. There is a reason why the Defense Department ban tiktok. If you look at the panoply of dangers from the social media apps, its surveil, monitor, track people i dont know if you remember that old expression. Its like 9 00 in the morning, the mother and father, the Chinese Communist party, do you know where your children are theres that problem theres the problem of capturing your user name and password. I bet you you use the same user name and passion word for more than one account as soon as you log into tiktok they have it for your bank theres black mail extorsion theres good reason why were banning these. What you want to do is put a firewall no pun intended between china and here right if of course theres evidence that theyre actually doing that joe . Oh, please, scott scott, hang on i cant let that go. That was like a little aside are you kidding me the Chinese Communist party, youre going to trust them even if they werent doing it yesterday, you damn well know theyre likely to do it tomorrow the doctrine of civil fusion that came out in 2015 was one of the dumbest things the Chinese Party did. They announced to the world that if youre a Foreign Company operating on chinese soil, you got to give us all your data, okay now whats wrong with that picture . So no a sides there, scott you know these people steal from us they steal us blind and so tiktok is not an innocent tool joe. Sorry. Hey, peter, i just want to get to were trying to bring back a lot of you know, for manufacturing pharmaceuticals, we want the key precursor is here i want to ask you about kodak and the 700 million government loan we got because regulators are looking into the way that worked out we spoke to kodaks executive chairman, i dont know if you saw the interview, after the day that the news broke and there was all of the stock trading heres what he said about stock trading before the news. 1. 684 million shares and tuesday the news came out. How do you account for that, james . Any idea whether someone had wind of this we didnt see the move in the stock. That is so far and away thats a multiple of the daily average volume over a long period of time any idea obviously this has been a pretty tight kept secret we waited until the last day i couldnt tell you. Yeah. Doesnt look like a secret we want to bring it back but we dont want this stuff going on do you have any idea what went on there talking about it let me set the table. Theres three things that go into pharmaceutical production the key starting materials, which is a heavy chemical. Most of that is in india and china. Then theres we havent got all of that. Then the phased doses hang on, joe we understand all of that but the beauty of kodak was that it hit two points of the compass. Key starting materials and active pharmaceuticals right right. We love that project right up until the point, you know, i was a business professor for 25 years at the university of california irvine, based on what im seeing, lets get it investigated, based on what im seeing, what happened at kodak was probably the dumbest decisions made by executives in corporate history. All weve done, joe. We dont know why that happened, what they did, kodak is doing an internal investigation as well were moving forward were not looking in the Rearview Mirror ive got 30 projects on my board across the street. Kodak, i mean you know, i mean, its hard to be that you cant fix stupid, joe. You just cant right okay you cant even anticipate that degree of stupidity. Right you can take the professor out of the collar but the i dont know you were going to explain to us how the precursors worked. You gave us what we were asking about. I have to set it up people need to understand why a project was so weve got other guests. Weve god other guests we have to go. Peter, thank you we appreciate it. Always a pleasure to talk to you, joe all right. Okay. Scott . All right, joe thank you. Coming up, much more on the markets this morning as the s p 500 sits less than 1 away from the alltime high. Stay tuned youre watching squawk box on cnbc dont forget to subscribe to our podcast. Youll get interviews, original content and behindthescenes access look for us on Apple Podcast or on your favorite pcaodst app and subscribe to squawk pod today. Achievable steps along the way. So we can spend a bit now, knowing were prepared for the future. Surprise we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. Oooh, well. Im good at my condo. Oh. I love her condo. Nana throws the best parties. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. Pampers cruisers 360 fit can too with a stretchy waistband and adaptive 360 fit so they can move the way they were born to [music] born to be wild pampers cruisers 360 fit good morning, mr. Sun. Good morning, blair. [ chuckles ] whoo. Im gonna grow big and strong. Yes, you are. Im gonna get this place all clean. Ill give you a hand. And im gonna put lisa on crutches wait, what . Said shes gonna need crutches. She fell pretty hard. You might want to clean that up, girl. Excuse us. When owning a Small Business gets real, progressive helps protect what you built with customizable coverage. And im gonna eh, eh, eh. Donny, no. Oh. We are getting some housing data that was supposed to come out later, but its out early. Wow. A bonus, diana joins us. Diana olick. Dont you just love that, joe. I love it. Home sentiment jumped 6 points to 78 on the National Association of homes builders wells fargo housing business that matches the record high set back in 1998 thats going back 39 years it had plunged to 30 back in april clearly making the sharpest vshaped recovery weve seen in this economy current Sales Conditions up 6 points to 84 sales expectations up three points to 78 buyer traffic up eight points to a record 65. The builders say it is all about recordlow Mortgage Rates, people trying to get out to the suburbs and, of course, that very short supply of existing homes for sale they do have one warning, though, they say that soaring lumber prices. Prices have doubled in just the last couple of months could, quote, dampen momentum on this housing recovery we have seen Housing Starts coming back, but not as strongly as wed like to see. We get those numbers tomorrow morning at 8 00. Builders clearly seeing buyer demand really coming back and not waning there was a question of whether it would surge for a couple months and then fall back as we got into august and september. Thats not happening again with that buyer traffic number at the highest level ever and sentiment. But, again, well see where lumber prices and what they do to home prices, joe. And Mortgage Rates, too diane. Didnt they start to go up last week is that going to continue . Is that a problem . Yeah, thats a little concern. They did jump up pretty sharply last week and thats when fannie and freddie raised rates on lenders and we saw Mortgage Rates go up 25 basis points. That doesnt sound like a lot when youre coming off a record low, but thats purchasing power and when you look at prices of newly built homes, builders are raising prices and they could raise them more if their costs for lumber continue to go up and existing homes very tight supply and prices going up there. We dont want to see Mortgage Rates get much higher than that. Theyre still pretty low, though okay, diana, thank you. For the early read we love that scott . All right, joe, thank you coming up, jim cramer on a big week ahead and money and politics as the democrats get set to kick off their Convention Stay tuned, youre watching squawk right here on cnbc. Aflac. What he said. And this unexpected bill is from. The twothousanddollar specialist. Thanks. Aflac. When youre sick or injured, aflac is there. We can help with Expenses Health insurance doesnt cover. Get to know us at aflac dot com. Its the simple joy of gewashing your hands,. Without ever touching a faucet. Its the Little Things that matter. Thats why we create moments to feel kohler clean, every day. Cnbc headquarters and jim cramer joins us now. Riddle wrapped in an and you listen to novarro and say hes not im worried about taiwan semi because were closer to taiwan we gave them the jets. The chinoese dont try to shut down now that intel has fallen by the wayside we need to stay strong in semis and i think navarro has to stay focused on that, too its about taiwan semi the pills. Passwords. No kidding they sound mad, they sound like theyre mad at kodak. Its on the radar of the administration thats unbelievable, isnt it . Kodak sometimes you get kodak really did a number on them. Pull that deal away from kodak illadvised by them. I want peter to focus on semi conductors because thats what im worried about. And im going to have to hit him pretty hard that he didnt go after that how about, just tweeting something about bioreference holy cow. I think that i had to go to that because of what you guys said to dr. Godly. He comes back and says saliva tests and open source with yale. Boom what that says is as much as sorrento is it we may be able to go into disney world and get the nfl going. Imagine if the nfl took a little saliva test before that game wed even see the redskins on the field. Cant call them that any more. What do we call washingtons team scott, what do we call them now . Washingtons team. We are the Washington Football Team. Jim cramer im sorry i mentionedthat other word im busy doing fantasy im sorry. Im doing fantasy all weekend. Beat your eagles in week one. Youll remember who they are after week one i apologize for mentioning it fantasy all weekend because it is time. The chiefs running back out of no where. Yeah. Right. The football team. All right. The Washington Football Team. I apologize, but fantasy all the fantasy sites have not changed the name they have history. They all have history. It is fantasy time, guys come on. It might be the d. C. Football team the way were going right now. Fedex team. How about fedex team i think we should call them fedex. I think fedex is going higher. Union pacific team i call them fedex team i asked him about the nationals and the Washington Football Team i know he loves. I dont want to call him the sniders. Single best owner in the league. The sniders. No all right, bye, jim thanks, jim well see you in a few minutes scott, how are you doing . Bye, jim. The washington monuments. See you in a little bit, jim. Joining us now to talk about the, mat markets, anthony woodse senior trader and Portfolio Manager. Good to see you this morning what are you going to be watching most of all this week great to be here, scott in terms of what we will be watching this week, of course, the fed minutes on wednesday i think that is going to be very instructive to outline Monetary Policy Going Forward particularly we want to see if they provide any light on their inflation framework and how they expect policy to evolve Going Forward. Yeah, wheres the opportunity in the market now either, you know, stocks or credit we think that when we look at the market here, the opportunities are pervasive and Corporate Credit still i know we had a strong rally in credit, however, we look at the global Macro Economic landscape and we see an environment where policy yields are at zero across the globe, not just in the u. S. But in developed markets in general and that creates a very constructive environment in general. Fiscal policy remains supportive and we have an impasse in congress currently and we expect it to be supported for credit given the pervasiveness of yield scarcity across the globe. Yeah, speaking of where do you see yields going . We had a nice move in the last week about 25 or so does it continue or does it run out of gas so, we think that if you do see a correction higher in yields, it will be led by the long end of the curve. The front end is going to remain a pinned near zero if you look at what the fed has been saying, they are telling the markets quite clearly that theyre going to be on hold now and for the foreseeable future the market price for that, where we think you can see higher rates is in the long end of the curve, but we dont expect to see a material selloff here. Thats not our base case yeah. All right. Well talk to you soon anthony, thanks so much. Joe . Been fun, man, ive enjoyed it is this it . Parting is such sweet sorrow. What about tomorrow i dont know. None of us do none of us do. Thanks. It was great having you, scott see you again soon good luck today on halftime. Ill be watching squawk on the street is coming up next good monday morning, welcome to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla big week of retail earnings and futures are steady and oil is flat our road map begins with wall street record watch. The s p set to open near new highs as goldman lifts its forecast postal politics as democrats call the house back and china crackdown. The white house now says its looking at restrictions on ali baba jim, a lot to watch today. Goodo