Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Closing Bell July 12, 2024

As well as declines in cases across the u. S. Not just big tech winners, jawdropping moves for individual stocks. Roku up 11 . Dicks Sporting Goods up 15. Urban outfitters up 20 weve got them all covered for you. 59 minutes left, what is set to be another record close for s p and nasdaq all we need is a positive finish kayla, welcome. Thank you, sara thank you for having me. Feels like record finishes every senile day we have a great lineup of ceo interviews coming your way on the rest of the show well me with the head of Toll Brothers about his companys strong Earnings Results and whether the Housing Market can keep topping expectations over and over again plus shares of crocs you heard me up. Up 300 just since march we will ask that companys ceo what is driving the foam footwear boom. And also the ceo of etsy says amazon is trying to wipe out its competition by supporting a New California Consumer Protection bill he will join us to discuss that and much more. Its a big show today. But lets get straight to the big story were watching today mike santoli tracking Market Action ylan has the latest. Leslie has a look inside palantiers. And the unusual structure. Starting with the Broader Market, what were seeing. Are we broken records talking about the tech divergence yet again. Broken record talking about breaking records, we kind of are but thais the way it happens these things come in streaks and burnells actually when you get to a record high on a given day the most likely scenario under the circumstances one the next day because the market goes up over time that being said, you did say the broad market, this is a very broad market dow jones toemgts stock market, wilshire 5,000 index i wanted to point out, it is at a new high yes, by far the scene stealing action is in the huge nasdaq stocks, the big tech stocks, salesforce, new york stock exchange, not nasdaq nonetheless, its pulling Everything Else with it. Most stocks, even if they are not up today, are going more or less in the right direction wit. This is obviously a pretty steep angle for the entire stock market to be traveling for a while. It is growing in certain ways, emotional gravity action in fastmoving tech stocks. But its hard to say right now today that things have gotten fully to an overheated extreme take a look at s p 500 and a measure of momentum, a measure of the trend relative strength index. Shows you how far and fast its moving this is coming into today. This going to be high right now. I just want to point out at the upper end of the range we get right here doesnt mean the market pulls back hard or false apart when we get to these levels but it does suggest that the fastest, greatest part of the move might be done. I do want to point out we hung around there in the gentle uptrend. If you get a little higher, by the way, the nasdaq is way off the charts on this measure, then you tend to become very vulnerable to a pullback if nothing else these are the things we have to watch along with senate measures to say if people are getting a little bit too overconfident in the market back to you guys. Theres some strategists that say the market could lose steam later this year potentially around the election. What does the markets breadth tell you about how much room to run p at what point do you think that pullback you just cited could present itself. Kelly, its totally logical to expect sometime between now and the election to have more turbulence it is the pattern in election years, president ial election years. You tend not to have great forward returns starting in late summer also when you finish august at a record high, september is often a giveback month all that stuff makes sense what is interesting is the Options Markets have been pricing in volatility around the election, four months. Theres this sort of bulge in buying of insurance around that date so i dont know if that means people have kind of felt protected against it or just that they have stayed more defensive in their equity exposures because they think that might be coming, which interestingly enough has probably created fuel for this market to go up in the interim because people were not overinvolved in the first place. The breadth is not great but i would say its not a deal breaker in terms of the rally continuing. All right, mike, thank you. President trump meeting this hour with medical professionals to discuss the coronavirus this as we get new results from latest states of play survey regarding how americans are feeling about returning to some sense of normalcy. Ylan mui with the details. Ylan. Im told a private meeting with medical experts, its taking place inside the oval office while in the battleground states our polling shows voter anxiety about the pandemic is beginning to ease. According to our polling with change research of likely voters across battleground states, 66 say they have serious concerns about covid. That is actually down from a high of 87 in april when we were all still on lockdown and the numbers are falling in both the rust belt and sunbelt. As a result we see likely voters more willing to start engaging in the economy shopping, getting your hair or nails done, eating inside at a restaurant or going to a movie theater. Voters told us they feel safer doing these activities than they have at any time since may that could be driving the bounce in our poll for President Trump. 48 now say they approve of his job performance. 47 give him a thumbsup on the job market guys, when you look at a headtohead matchup between President Trump and the democratic president ial nominee joe biden, trump is still trailing by three points back over to you. All right, ylan thank you. I know well be following that closely in the months to come. Lets turn to palantier, the Company Going public last night and outlining an unusual share structure in its s1. Leslie picker has the details. Leslie, how does this all break down hey, kaley, going public with class affirm, class b and class f stock. Before you let your mind wander, the f stands for that. They pair back economic ownership. It takes several pages of explanation in the prospectus but essentially class f has a variable number of votes which adjusts to ensure those three founders maintain 49. 99999 voting control now, thats right. Either below majority control but the founders plus venture backers also hold Class B Shares which command 10 votes each. The class a stock that you as the Public Market investor can buy comes with only one vote per share. Its not uncommon for them to go public with put pell classes of shares quicken rocket debuted earlier this year with four classes of stock. Snap went public three years ago giving its shareholders no vetting rights palantirs f shares makes this one unique, guys. Leslie, stay right there. We want to bring in mike santoli for some perspective on this, mike what do individual investors need to know about this unusual voting structure first of all, you need to know up front youre not going to have a lot of say in what the company does we do have to keep in mind this market hasnt imposed any penalty you can observe or measure on companies that maintained founder control actually more of them 49 something percent found ir control. If you look at alphabet, facebook, not as its straining the valuations of the companies. Im not surprised these founders would try to do it and try to push that extra step of having this provision stay in there no matter how big their financial stake is i dont know that necessarily individual investors are going to have it be an overriding concern whether they own a piece of the business if, in fact, they love the business really, i dont think individuals think that much about the value of their vote in actually operating the company but you know, leslie, its not all together uncommon for Large Tech Companies to have these voting control shares for the founders but i think whats so ironic about palantir doing it, the s1 starts off with this letter essentially railing against Silicon Valley and saying we dont have that much in common with tech brethren, dont like the direction they are taking our companies, find ourselves at odds with them but renewsing to structure shares in the way other companies had to contain voting control for these very founders. Thats right. A lot of people pointing to the irony of that and the fact that from a governing standpoint this looks a lot like the other Technology Ipos weve seen in the last few years with regard to voting control. I think perhaps the antidote to mikes point is the idea that we have seen such a huge influx of capital into esg funds, environmental social governance. So investors say esg, the g being governance, has become increasingly important to them when you look whats going on with governance of companiesou of silicon, going public with multiple shares, giving investors little say in how the company is run, it will be interesting to see how that plays out alongside these esg concerns and whether each individual side winds up caving based on fiduciary duty and so forth. That will be something to watch over the next few years. Yeah, and where that even fits in with esg priorities. Exactly. Governance versus Environmental Concerns leslie, thank you. Very interesting leslie picker. Still ahead the ecommerce war of words mpt dont miss exclusive interview ceo of etsy following his comment that amazon is, quote, taking bold steps to wipe out its competitors by supporting a New California Consumer Protection bill youre watching closing bell here on cnbc i keep working my way back to you, babe with a burning love inside yeah im working my way back to you, babe and the happiness that died i let it get away servicenow. The smarter way to workflow. Coming to the green flag, racing at daytona. Theyre off. In the kentucky derby. Rory mcllroy is a two time champion at east lake. He scores stanley cup champions. Touchdown only mahomes. Expect anything different . The big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. 47 minutes left of trading welcome back, everyone hurricane laura is gaining strength in the gulf of mexico, expected to make landfall on the texas and louisiana coast this evening. It was just upgraded to an extremely dangerous cat four storm. Brian sullivan has a look at the potential fallout for Energy Companies in the region. Brian, how big of a threat is this for u. S. Output. Well, its a big threat but also a big storm that map was terrifying, takes up about half the gulf of mexico lets get the latest on the oil and gas story. As you can imagine, im not breaking any news here every refinery in its path is shut down or shutting down 48 offline, 2. 5 Million Barrels of capacity that has been cut as well that will probably go up a lot of these companies, guys, are tightlipped about the refineries status. They dont want you no youve got to make calls, whatever it might be gasoline futures are lower, which is a little weird but ill get to the reasons in a second companies, exxonmobil shutting down at least two refineries, biggest refinery shut down, valero, shell, they are all there. That beaumont area lake charles, thats going to be the center of the storm. Kind of where the m in beaumont would be, thais the direct path. You can see there, thats the really hard hit area there is a few reason why gasoline is down right now one, gasoline inventories are higher than last year and can absorb some hit to production for a while. Number two, youve got refineries that are staying open only running at 80 capacity they can make up some of the slack, guys. Of course, demand will drop as people stay home because of the storms first, all the ports are closed, galveston, port arthur, et cetera, so all the ships are stuck. Check out this from marine. Com that is amazing. The dots, red, blue, green, those are ships. If you are not in port, you have scurried over to Corpus Christi or the coast of mexico because laura is coming right through. Hundreds or thousands of ships all running away i think that, kayla, and sara, is an in verse map of that storms path its incredible there. Brian, one interesting thing here normally when you have this type of dislocation in the energy market, you see images of people lining up to fill up their cars with gasoline around the block for miles and miles. Because people arent going anywhere, used to hunkering d n down is that a silver lining, they wouldnt be hit if they were trying to get somewhere with sky prices as energy goes offline. Thats true its not just driving but also jet fuel we forget 35 or so of all refined gasoline products is used for air travel. Air travel is onethird, if that, of what it was youve got all this excess refining capacity, inventories for oil and gasoline are pretty high to your point, were not driving certainly as much. In the next week, not a lot of people, except emergency crews and First Responders and cleanup crews are going to be doing a lot of driving in the next couple of days in those areas, kayla. You put that in perspective and its why were seeing commodity futures down but also some stocks down as well. The refineries have had a terrible year anyway by the way, 2020 has been a terrible year in every way yeah. I dont know how many people had a category 4 hurricane on their bingo card, brian. Well come back to you as the situation develops thanks for bringing that to us not surprising to hear that energy is the worst performing sector today the overall s p 500 setting another intraday record with tech continuing to lead the way. Joining us now with his Market Outlook is sebastian page, head of global multiasset at t. Rowe price. He manages target date strategies sebastian, just tell us first what you think the hurricane could be to the overall market clearly the Energy Sector is moving but it comes at a time when the overall economy, data starting to look better, coronavirus case counts starting to look better could this be a fly in that ointment i dont think it will be. It will Impact Energy directly, destroy some demand in the shortterm but youre essentially asking a broader question, which is stocks appear to be somewhat divorced from the real economy at the moment think of 2020 we are going to we can estimate earnings down about 23 , gdp down 8 , 20 million unemployed and stocks up 55 from the bottom. The key is, though, that stock anticipate future earnings and future conditions. So this is whats going on again, i dont think that the hurricane itself is a major event for the stock market im thinking more broadly that stocks are fairly valued at the moment. So which direction do you think they will go if they are fairly valued right now, do you think they still have room to go up, or do you think they are due for a pullback at this point stocks have room to continue to go up if you take 16 to 18 month horizon. Were asset allocators, so everything is relative we have to look at the opportunity stocks relative to bonds, for example when i say stocks are fairly valued, they have room to go up, probably not double digit. But relative to bonds, i look at the yield on the barclays global this morning its 90 basis points, nominal. So were thinking in relative terms. If we look at the earnings yield on stocks, which is very hard to estimate, but if we kind of move forward 2021, 2022, compare that to the bond yield, and we find that stock, despite reaching new highs, are not that expensive from that lens. How do you explain a day like today . Is that whats happening, people having this realization . You have netflix up 10 , facebook up 7 , the Software Names are flying over salesforce a lot of these companies are having huge moves off no news. It cant be a bunch of analysts playing catchup with price targets, whats going on today feels like a covid on kind of day. Think of it as the paranoid rally, the liquidity, the infusion of stimulus weve had stimulus if i look at the high range estimates, 24 trillion the size of the total global market, total stock market is 48 trillion so about half of the size of the total market cap out there that has created in part the rally in stocks, together with bringing rates down 150 basis points so today is a continuation of that paranoid rally, yif you will, people seek big tech platform, the big growers, the companies that are weathering the covid on environment quite well now, what were watching very closely in this environment is the potential for a rotation between those Growth Stocks and the value stocks well see if and when that happens. Weve been hearing it could happen for quite sometime, sebastien. Obviously today is not that day. We appreciate your thoughts, sebastien page with t. Rowe price. With 39 minutes before the closing bell, the dow is up marginally, a third of 1 , s p up about 1 . 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