Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 12, 2024

Territory in a single trading session. For some, it was even worse than that check out shares of apple down it lost 180 billion in market cap. That is the largest oneday lost for a u. S. Listed company on record if that isnt enough to get your attention. Apple lost more in market cap yesterday than the individual market capitalizations of 470 of the companies in the s p 500 it wasnt just apple microsoft, alphabet, microsoft and even tesla saw their market caps shrink. Microsoft down by 115 billion amazon off by 93 billion. This morning, things look a little better. You still have the dow down 150 points right now, it is reverse that up 300 points the nasdaq saw the biggest declines, up 27 points right now. We have to keep that in context a few things in here as well talking to people all day yesterday, here is the list. Youll want to know exactly what happened it was the nasdaqs largest drop you dont go up 400 and down that will be highspeed trading. That would matter until they do. Valuations at some point may have mattered because the highest valuation stocks and work from home trade, they fell 9 and 10 . The closer we went to a vaccine, the more likely it is to sell off. On the idea that you buy ahead of it and then the idea that real work began. Priced in multiple times, we finally got to 2017 one more month of vertical gains that was a melt up. You did fall swiftly from that time to another volatility storm that came out of nowhere all you really described here going up in the markets are not just pure crowd psychology in the process, you dchblt disturb much you look at the s p, it didnt breakthrough in pull back. We are seeing a little bit of a test and flush of money in the markets that did too well. We did see a lot of stress in the market really reversal of what we had been seeing same thing with the nasdaq 100 the tesla Equity Offering and the fact that the biggest outside share holder was probably a psychologicaltype pressure maybe the numbers were not as good as the stocks had priced for. Unspuling what we spuled up in the coming month just felt like the laws of physics were applied to this if you are looking at the moving average levels for the nasdaq to hit the moving average, it would have to fall another six points and to go back and touch that 200Day Moving Average, thats a 2,000 point drop from here roughly 9,500. Maybe how far away we got from any sort of semblance on range found testing as well. To get a little more granular, the nasdaq has bounced off the 21day average really a minimal pull back we are kind of bouncing back around that level. Looking at how quickly some of these things have changed since monday, elon musk has lost 19 million. And yesterday, Mark Zuckerberg lost 9 billion. Everyone lost money. Bezos, zuckerberg, anybody who has a lot of money did come back down a little bit. I was thinking in this proposal from Bernie Sanders out there that says billionaires should be paying taxes on 35i7paper gains theyve made when you see a bounce like this, you understand the difficulty with that. Elon musk lost 103,000 teslas yesterday. Lets be honest, it is really an abstract number thats why taxing those numbers are important. Somebody appraises the value on our house, my house doesnt go up or down by 5 or 8 or 10 a day. The market is not supposed to go up or down several points a day. To have on thursday one of the biggest percentage losses on nasdaq there was no news, no real change, no this or that or a stimulus it is a reminder to our viewers who are out there playing the markets on robinhood or day traders or who knows what bets lay ahead. The market has been incredibly wild swings. Im talking a matter of swings of direction happening before our eyes what happened is, unusual calm and trending moves, punctuated by those outside sharp sudden moves whether the Fourth Quarter of last year, all of 2017, all of 2013, this market grinds higher and then something breaks and gets to some kind of extreme the rhythm is different. The market was always every single day overshooting the implications because it is basically crowd psychology with money. You said it best yesterday, this stuff works until it doesnt yes was the day it didnt i do think it is probably better for a lot of that activity to be checked like this and bleed away the confidence over time to let it build up today will be a tell. The futures right now are up if the jobs number comes in wildly off the estimate of a gain of 4. 4 million, well tell we are stuck in this weird technical trade. The estimates we are using is 1. 32 remember, the estimates are all over the place thats the median estimate they are a couple of million down to a couple thousand. We used to talk about the number itself within the margin of error talking about bigger numbers like this and expectations, that is something to watch for. That number is coming up at 8 30 we have a lot to talk about before we get to that number lets give you an update on two trials johnson and johnson said its Covid Vaccine candidate prevented severe illness in hamsters great news for hamsters everywhere and pfizer announcing it could have results from the late stage testing as soon as october dr. Scott gottlieb is on that board and hell be here with us to talk about those. Well be right back. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus, get 400 off when you buy the new Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Welcome back time for the latest in the race for a covid19 vaccine for that, well go to dr. Scott gottlieb, hes a cnbc contributor and serves on the boards of illumina and pfizer. We talked a little about the progress weve seen for johnson and johnson and pfizer with their new news they have it sounds promising. The idea that you could get a vaccine before we get to november i know you are a pfizer board member and there is only so much you can say, where do you think we stand right now the other news yesterday was that glacksco smith is enteringa trial in the uk. I think it is possible well have data in the october, november time frame. The two lead candidates are pfizer and im on the board of pfizer and the moderna candidate. You could get a read out in november, possibly in october. Everything has to go right for that to happen results from the top line read out assuming the vaccines are effective. In order to get a read out, those need to be really effective. If your base case is that those will be 50 to 60 effective and we can do better than that and assume that it is more like 50 to 60 base case that pushes out probably to November World Health Organization said earlier, they dont anticipate the broad base until mid2021 is that counter or just nuance that we could have a vaccine but it might not be available until middle of next year . I think it will be a staged approval it doesnt mean it is a lower standard that eua allows them to stage the authorization and access to different highrisk groups while they continue to collect data. The emergency use allows the fda to collect a lot of data around the use of the product and stand up with a regular industry that will allow them to collect data as they get vaccinated health care workers, higher risk higher risk of having a bad outcome. People who are older those are groups who will likely get access earlier and youll see additional groups brought on in terms of having a vaccine available for broad use where you could go to a Doctors Office and get the vaccine clearly, i think thats a 2021 event. Maybe more like the first half it is possible well see a vaccine broadly available but it will clearly slip into 2021. I do not think well see a vaccine get licensed for broad distribution fwl through 2020. Well get a staged release of vaccine through the year assuming they work and are proven to be effective also big news on e cigarettemaker juul who said it will be cutting more than half of the workforce and considering pulling out in sales you looked at this very early on and said there was a big reason for the spike of teen vaping what do you think of this latest news if you remember where we were two or three years ago, we tried to regulate nicotine for some adults who still wanted to get access to satisfying levels of nicotine, we saw e grets as a less harmfu alternative. Juul stepped into the market and ruined that vision by addicting a whole generation of kids through e cigarettes they were slow to react to it. A lot of the overhang and impact to let adults process that was impacted by juul theyve been slow to respond in terms of the youth use of their product. Im not surprised to see them at the federal level and state level. And impacting their business and the company having to skinny down and focus on the core target market. They should have been doing at the outset and not trying to grow it into new addicts or users. Because they were marketing specifically to kids, to teens they were marketing in a way to appeal to children. Using very young people in marketing early on there is no way to say we are Just Marketing to 20yearolds targeting 20yearolds will bleed into a younger demographic. Juul was targeting a younger demographic. They got a lot of bleed to children and teenagers making that product fashion able to a younger set. Where do we stand now in terms of the number of teens who are vaping had has gone down we wont know for sure the numbers in the field will get held up because of covid there is evidence that vaping generally has gone down because of peoples concerns around the health and the pathogen and pandemic you have seen youth vaping rates come down. We have seen kids pull back from using those products i think thats accelerated in the last year. Thats great news scott, thank you for what you did, leading up to that. That was huge in terms of trying to bring that up under control great to see you well talk to you soon we are just Getting Started here more in yesterdays big selloff and what you need to know before the jobs moving number futures are mixed. Look at the nasdaq, thats the one to watch maybe we are seeing the split between tech and the rest of the market here is what mohammad told cnbc yesterday about the selloffs caller my own gut feeling is that the Liquidity Position is still strong if it is not, this market comes down by a lot more we could have another fall if, if people start thinking fundamentals introducing stocks by the slice from fidelity. Now you can trade stocks and etfs for any amount you choose instead of buying by the share. All with no commissions. Stocks by the slice from fidelity. Get your slice today. Stocks by the slice from fidelity. [mother giving birth] from the firstloving touch. Everything that touches your baby should be this comforting. Thats why pampers, the 1 pediatrician recommended brand, wraps your baby in breathable softness to help keep their skin dry healthy. So every touch is as comforting as the first. Pampers. The 1 pediatrician recommended brand. Docusign shares have been volatile it looks to expand into other areas of contract management sell offs falling 8. 7 it had seen a sharp run off in recent weeks the docusign ceo will join us in a first on cnbc interview. Now time for the executive edge the Kentucky Derby taking place tomorrow after being postponed due to the pandemic. Shares of churchilldowns are down now more with derby. No hat i was hoping you would be in a hat. I thought about it. But it was so early. I do have a most fascinating fascinator the most exciting two minutes in sports will be a little quieter. It announced it changed plans and now wont be any spectators in the stands for the first time in history they originally said they would allow 14 of crowds. They changed that. The race still expected to be a big betting event. Last year, 165 million was bet. They expect to see a major surge as legalization surges and betting at the track is no longer an option they are prepared for an increase of up to 300 of wagers per minute on deber derby day. The stock is up 30 at churchill downs. Weve seen a lot of pentup demand for sports and sports betting. Headlines are pushing that forward. Michael jordan, bar stool sports hear hearing about those valuations if you want to get in on the action, you can bet on the stocks or bet on the horses. Tomorrows favor to win is tis the law. I had no idea the hats are called the fascinators thats just a tiny hat. And 1,000 words 12 to 1 the number of people betting on horses from what i understand has gone up. Are these younger people do people expect them sto stick around the new York Racing Association says theyve seen triple digit increases in the handle and increased usage because of the lack of sports generally that horse racing got a boost and they think these people are going to stay the organizers of pink pyeongchang say the same thing they are not the only ones fox says theyve seen rating for these events go up 300 this summer it is an incredible boost for this sport for tomorrows race, you are looking at scratches king guimaro is out because of a fever. And finir the fierce, the one eyed horse im going with 1,000 words. Well see your fascinator at some point by the way, nbcs big derby coverage starts tomorrow 2 30 pm eastern. Will look different but still fun and exciting yes coming up, dow futures pointing to a nasdaq still the weak point. Well talk predictions to the big lossness number. Look at yesterdays biggest 500 winners and losers as business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will. You can rely on the people and the network of at t. To help keep your business connected. For as little as 5, now anyone can own companies in the s p 500, even if their shares cost more. At 5 a slice, you could own Ten Companies for 50 instead of paying thousands. All Commission Free online. Schwab stock slices an easy way to start investing or to give the gift of stock ownership. Schwab. Own your tomorrow. Good morning watching u. S. Equity futures because of a big selloff indicated up by 236 points s p down by 3 dat 5 now indicated up by 20 points. The story is the nasdaq. Down 5 yesterday. Now indicated down once again only by about 10 points but that was a huge move. Not the case at this moment. Chevron up by 1 or 6 . Youll see docusign. Out with better than anticipated results. However, what you get, you have to give back in some of these. Had had been up sharply. Give back yesterday of 9 and again today of 8 . Well talk to the ceo later today about what it feels like to get caught in these momentum trades. Thats an 8 drop so 17 really in a matter of 24 hours. The road back to the economy will come into focus in two hours with the release of the jobless number that hiring slowed down. And professor at jon jay college. Michelle, ill start with you. We are going for 1. 3 million your estimate is 1. 9 you show be careful to focus on that Consensus Forecast because it really doesnt reflect where everything will land how wide do you think the dispersion will be especially at these times, we talk about the forecast being off 500,000 or a million in terms of the range of estimates. We take these for granted with a huge grain of salt you have to step back and look at what the numbers are telling us about the progress we are making back to where we were pre covid. Whether the number was 1. 3, 1. 6. 1. 9. The bottom line is that those would be consistent of regaining in august at half the time we are trying to gauge. How far have we come and how much further do we have to go. To some extent, markets are forward looking. Weve seen announcements of furloughs turning into permanent job losses going into the fall concerned about what the return to school will look like the markets will also be looking forward as well. Michelle holder, we talked about how important the school issue is to the jobs number what are you expecting today and to you, what is the most important thing to take out of this report . Good morning. Thank you for having me on im going to echo what michelle just said. I anticipate the rate will stay steady or tick down. Again, whether or not the job creation numbers between a million or closer to 2 million,ing the important point is that the economy is still gaining jobs although with 20 Million People unemployed, so a monthly gain isnt really going to get us very far, very quickly. Two of the most important things to think about is how long is it going to take to get back to some level of normalcy and not even pre covid recession levels. Ill talk about certain demographics even though the Unemployment Rate has slowed down, the black Unemployment Rate is down. That has been surpassed by the black Unemployment Rate, which i believe is between 14 to 15 do how do we fix it, michelle holder we fix the problem wither in the economy. Get the virus under control. There are people who want to go back to work but are afraid to go back to work. In order to fix the problem of black unemployment and latinx unemployment, we have to fix the whole picture. Really. We look at the hours worked, if you will how risky is it . When we have no idea what is coming in two months how hard is it to forecast right now okay. So first of all, the data themselves are very difficult to forecast those are very much impacted we are seeing a greater number of people coming back to leisure and restaurant sector. The composition change can pull down the Hourly Earnings numbers even though apples to apples, it wouldnt have shown the change i do want to say one thing about looking at the demographic data, i do think Going Forward, that will be increasingly important the fed has changed its approach to how it would implement the Monetary Policy. Focusing the shift showing that mandate needs to be brought. Getting the rate down isnt going to be enough looking at the demographics will be important and focusing on those will be extremely important. The fed can throw trillions at the world, raise stock prices, make the rich even richer but if the skoent skoel need to reopen thank you for joining us hav

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