Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240712 : v

Things that you did in the market today you bought walmart and mic microsoft. Why are you putting money to work in those stocks now why am i putting money to work and then ill get to those stocks we had had a 10 correction. You know ive held cash for a little while im not the onlywaiting for a correction i still have some cash but, look, for this to get worse than a correction, maybe it goes down 12, 13 . I dont know if it to get worse you have to think the fed is ineffective and the cash on the sidelines which we know is there for mutual fund and etf flows isnt going to come flooding in i think it will start coming in. Otherwise, youre predicting the end of the world in 42 years of investing i have yet to see the world ends walmart has a good mixture of brick and mortar with Online Presence has a peg ratio of 2. 0 microsoft has many pistons in the engine whether its azure, the operating system or gaming you see it in the peg ratio which is 2. 2 a 30 times multiple is absolutely reasonable. Hes putting money to work suggests he thinks the worst of the correction is behind us. Do you agree with that i think jim stated correctly that a 10 down and you have some names that have gone down more than 10 . If you look at the drop in nasdaq names between 10 and 230 30 on stocks. You look at what your target buy and sell is. We went to something closer to 19, 19. 5 i dont think anybody can time the market so perfectly that we can pick the bottom or pick the tops i think this is what im willing to pay, thats what investors should do and thats something jim did. I think proerptly. Im all for it josh, tom lee says stocks may be pricing in the worst is yet to come. Hes looking at 62 retrace of the rally since june would be a convenient place to price that in. That level is 32. 24 within a stones throw of that he views that level as one of the most important to watch. Where do you think we are . Thats a really important question because the market is moving so fast these days. We could Say Something here at 12 00 that looks ridiculous at 2 00 one thing that i find interesting has been so much emphasis about big cap tech, big cap tech over and over again look at the qs theyre down 20 basis point ons the week based on where they are trading at this moment they barely done anything this week in the meanwhile, energy just being liquidated not sold, liquidated the xle names are down 12 on the week and its only thursday. The cruise lines the cruises and the airlines are down pretty much almost all of them more than 4 today. The jets etf for the airlines is down more than 10 on the week yeah, large cap tech had kind of a blow off top and has been cooling off. Really those stocks are stabilizing here now, there are some pockets of very unhealthy trading what do i mean by that stock went straight up vertical for days and days and quickly loses 8 thats scary stuff and there are some pockets where that kind of unhealthy activity is going on i guess if youre a day trader, its not unhealthy its very healthy and youre enjoying it. Investor and those names are being whipped around like crazy. Those are the exceptions i think a lot of eyes are focused on apple and microsoft as two stocks if overall market is going to stabilize, maybe those stabilize first. Based on what i told you with the qs this week and even the equal weight qs, we might be seeing early signs of that i think thats the right way to be feeling now thats a fair assessment. We do bring this up when people say, yeah, im waiting for the dip. This dip is great. This is exactly wa wehat were waiting for. You dont put money to work when you get the dip. Jim put money to work when he got the dip. Jon, you bought apple at 105 103 seems to be a key level to watch according to traders wow bought at 105. While thats all true and ive been evening up my position in apple switching out of call spreads and back into the stock on this sell off what i would always emphasize because of the out performance of what jim bought, micro soft, that has over taken apple as my largest position microsoft has now over taken apple as my largest position not because of ads or subtracts in that space but because microsoft has done so much better over the short term and maybe that out performance continues. I wouldnt be at all unhappy about it i sounds like josh and jim may be over for the tech sell off we have seen do you think so when you talk about megacap tech scott, i sent the team a graft that showed that the peak when we were 70 30, well have vaccine by the end of the year we hit the all time high for the s p. That was beginning of september just after apple and tesla were splitting and so forth its kind of went down a 50 50 deal i was listening over at Goldman Sachs and he was saying you could plot that on a graph how it went to the down side i think you put that together with the lack of stimulus, scott, and if that same outlook prevailed, if we had no vaccine until 2021 and no stimulus at all, then i think the market could break these levels that its hit but its bounced very strongly at exactly tom lees levels i dont want the fade that thst why i was comfortable adding some apple and trading out of call spreads and into the stock which i do when i think we get into that position what do we do with some of these other teches that kram rerks a er and other folks think is up too much not down that much month to date the question then morphs from about megacap tech to some of these high flying, high valuation teches and do they need to come in more in their own right. Probably, yes generally speaking we dont think the market is very over valued valuation is a terrible timing tool it can continue to rise but we think given levels with market cap at record percent gdp, forward p es reaching bubble levels, were moving more into cash we continue to trim even after this 10 correction. From a long term perspective, we think theres more down side some of the megacap teches we have been trimming more addre s aggressi aggressively its hard to grow that fast. Soon youll take over the entire economy. Some of the pure covid beneficiaries we think ran too far, too fast. We think some of the names you mentioned will have hard comps next year. Were staying away from the pure covid beneficiaries and as well as staying away from the companies that are in the direct line of covid. The airlines and some other areas and instead looking for companies that we think their Business Models are fundamentally changed and benefitted by this pandemic. Whether the public, the market is way too come plplacen about the election the president wont admit to peaceful transfer of power is that in the market . Does that get in the market at some point ill let you take it first the fact that if biden wins, democrats win the senate, is that in the market at all . Does a different tax policy favor or factor into the market at all if you have a higher Corporate Tax rate, a much higher Capital Gains rate . Is that factored in . Youre only 40 days away is election chaos factored into the market in any way shape or form i think it is lets use numbers and then sentiment. Number, theres been 300 billion of outflows from equity mutual funds and etfs public, the Investment Community has been voting with its feet. Lets talk about sentiment i had a discuss with a client and he was about to say, im scared i want to go all to cash he said this is unprecedent. The president might not leave the oval office. All the things you were alluding to there the truth is, it always seems unprecedented. The pandemic seemed unprecedented. The shutdown seemed unprecedented. The great financial crisis seemed unprecedented im saying all that because, again, in 42 years of investing, i have yet to see the world end. Some bad things may happen and thats why the market is off 10 . Maybe it goes down the 200day moving average, maybe another 4 lower. Whatever bad things happen, the idea the world will end is misplaced. The market will grow again why does it have to be this all or nothing the world is not going to end. It could be rather chaotic for a period of time the markets dont like uncertainty. This could be uncertainty on steroids im surprised you suggest that all of the potential outcomes that i read out for you, you think is in the market can i jump in on that one after jim speaks on that. You can. Go ahead, jim. I think there is probably support at the 200day moving average which is 3106, which is about 4 where we are. We have seen the market bounce off of that twice in this rally. Theres been things to fear in the last six months. We know that im not saying that i bottom ticked with my purchases today if i implied that, youll be the first to disabuse me of that you didnt imply anything you explicitly said you thought potential chaos around the election is priced into the market are you take it back scott, ive said two things one, im clearly putting money to work number two, nobody, including me can bottom tick this and say this is the bottom. Thats why im talking about the 200day moving average at no point have i said right now is the bottom in the market. Is it a good time to buy i think so im not saying this is the bottom i cant say that nobody can say that. Its good time to buy. Amy on the election, i think the range of outcomes is so vast its very hard to discount remember, in 2016 when trump was elected, the financials just ripped that was the sector to own then it dissipated in the following three years. We dont know whats going to happen its very hard the price in. I think generally speaking you sort of go back to financial theory equity should represent the sum of their discounted cash flows we still have the come back to that mantra and probably whatever happens is not going to change that too dramatically i do think of the Capital Gains tax goes up significantly, some of these big winners, there could be a rush out more aggressive rush out so people looking in their gains and paying lower taxes, thats just a logical conclusion in general, i think politics doesnt have as big an impact on fundamental investing. I think most people expect there to be definitely tax increases if the democrats win markets have been the same if democrats win or republicans win. Its essentially the same im not talking about the next month, two months. Theres going to be someone in the white house. Maybe we should try it for a president without a while but i dont think that will last for long i understand the concern that you have, clients have, every one has about a contested election and violence and concern and political and social unrest the market is looking beyond that i believe the way the market looked beyond it at the end of march and said now were over sold and the market has to go up because things will get better. Otherwise how could we make that statement finish your thought. I was going to say thats part of a healing process that fed and treasury step in with m massive amounts of stimulus and support. It does something where things were getting much worse from the virus. Jon just real quick, when we at the all time high september 2nd or thereabouts, 3500 or whatever it was, after a 10 correction if you decide now i think youre better waiting a bit just a week ago or so it was in the 30s. Just days ago it was back in the 30s and now its popped back down under 29. In other words, i think if you give it time, youre getting into something that for a lot of us is really deep end of the pool short term trading for derivatives like options that have massive time decay in that final 30 to 60 days. If people are trying to put on a hedge now after a 10 correction, youre almost guaranteeing yourself to lose money. If we were to float back up to a high, scott and im not saying theres a guaranteed floor at a 10 correction, thats not what im saying what i am saying is time decay will kill you as time goes by. We have a debate next tuesday that might have a Significant Impact on how people feel about the markets and about the election id say give it time after this correction rather than trying to slap on protection right now and seeing that time decay just hammer you josh, where do you come down on this issue of complacency its real from the people i talk to that are generally concerned about a level of complacency in the market around Election Outcomes i think amy said something about how important stocks are meant to represent their cash flows. The missing ingredient so that statement is the role that sentiment plays in the short term i agree with the point youre bringing up being important. The surveys reflect that it was an constitutional Investor Survey last week that found more professional investors, assess managements firms, more of them are concerned with the coming election than are concerned with the virus, which is wild that is, i think, the next big sentiment driving catalyst to come i think it will be profoundly negative in the short term, i do think well have chaos i absolutely think that its going to be a long drawn out fight. Even if its clear that trump wins, the electoral college, which i dont think it will be, i dont think biden will be in a rush to concede. Al gore didnt concede for six weeks. What was different about that time in 2000 versus today, neither candidate was an incumbent. Now we have an incumbent who is saying things like the only way i could lose is if its rigged he has no intention of leaving if he loses. We should take him at his word i think it could be very ugly and could drag on for way longer you dont think its priced in g jim thinks its priced in. No way. The president has powers and bill barr has powers Mitch Mcconnell has powers and they have demonstrated they will use those powers to keep their guy exactly where they want him. I would say its not priced in here is the counter veiling force that i think ultimately will stabilize the market. By the way, we dont trade on politics all the Capital Gains is nonsense the counter veiling forces that will help us are two fold. We will absolutely have an fda approval on the vaccine at some point during that window of electoral chaos. Thats a b, buy backs have fallen off a cliff this year. I dont think people understand the extent to which that leg of the stool has disappeared. We never talk about it buy backs were at an annualized rate of almost a trillion dollars for 2020 in mid point of the First Quarter of this year the large cap techs that we talk about being important to the market as stabilizers, thats where the return of buy backs will show. I think well be okay. You make a good point on that point i was to bring up some information we have about buy backs and capital return plans and ask you what you think about it. Kimberly clark, lululemon, metlife. Raising dividends recently it may be coming back. Is that a bullish sign for stocks its definitely a bullish sign we have half the number of companies and shares available to buy than we did 15 years ago. Much of that is because of buy backs. Every time you reduce the supply if the demand is there, its going to help. I think that its interesting the companies themselves and the sectors in which you talked about a number that were Consumer Retail manufacturing. I suspect that if you go through the list theyll be names where they think they are getting a bargain or something there has worked against their stock price. Thats what to me is reasonable for them to do if they have the available cash i wonder if we get into a period as josh suggest there may be unrest and sentiment that n negatively affect the market we have a president in the white house and has stability, it strikes me that management can make decisions at that level. Brexit was a major issue for u. S. Corporations that did a lot of business around the world and the election going into 16, we were looking for every bit as much sprol till volatility as we it didnt happen. I hope that companies that are general rati general ratingl rating cash flows, i hope they would not be sitting there waiting on an election outcome to do the right thing in terms of returning capital to share holders. It should help jon, hold your thought real quick. Ill get you on the other side of the break look at this mystery chart its down 40 this year. Just got a big buy call. Why it could go up 70 one of our Investment Committee members own it well tell you about it. Stay restless with the icon that does the same. The rx, crafted by lexus. Lease the 2020 rx 350 for 409 a month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. If i could, baby id e how can i, when you wont take it from me you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. Welcome back first, sue has the headlines for us here is whats happening at this hour. In louisville, kentucky, officials have extended the curfew for two more nights after fires were set yesterday a federal Appeals Court has over turned a plan to settle opioid cases against Drug Companies it would have allowed an unprecedented negotiation class of counties and towns to take pair in negotiations mary trump suing trump and two other family members claiming they cheated her out of tens of millions of dollars and squeezed her out of the Family Business in finland researchers are testing coronavirus sniffing dogs it is hope they will become a coast effective and quick way of identifying infected travelers volunteers rub their skin with a wipe that is given to the dogs to smell giving results in under a minute you are up to date thats the news update back to you. Appreciate that thank you. Doc, forgive me for not letting you speak when you wanted to. I had to take a quick break. The platform is yours before we get to chevron everything is timing in trading and so forth. I do think they are likely to wait i think that is likely to occur. I think theres certainly an impetus to wait until whether they see whether its President Trump or Vice President biden because of the idea that maybe the tax increase under Vice President biden would be one reason they would want to accelerate any of that ahead of the calendarchanging when the tax year changes for most investors. Thats the whole thing i was going to offer up. Im glad you did. Lets talk about chevron now we gave our mystery chart away there it is. The stock year to date is down nearly 41 josh mentioned how people are liqu liquidating. Jim you own it is now a good time to be buying any of these Energy Stocks i cannot and will not say today is the day you need to buy Online Presence<\/a> has a peg ratio of 2. 0 microsoft has many pistons in the engine whether its azure, the operating system or gaming you see it in the peg ratio which is 2. 2 a 30 times multiple is absolutely reasonable. Hes putting money to work suggests he thinks the worst of the correction is behind us. Do you agree with that i think jim stated correctly that a 10 down and you have some names that have gone down more than 10 . If you look at the drop in nasdaq names between 10 and 230 30 on stocks. You look at what your target buy and sell is. We went to something closer to 19, 19. 5 i dont think anybody can time the market so perfectly that we can pick the bottom or pick the tops i think this is what im willing to pay, thats what investors should do and thats something jim did. I think proerptly. Im all for it josh, tom lee says stocks may be pricing in the worst is yet to come. Hes looking at 62 retrace of the rally since june would be a convenient place to price that in. That level is 32. 24 within a stones throw of that he views that level as one of the most important to watch. Where do you think we are . Thats a really important question because the market is moving so fast these days. We could Say Something<\/a> here at 12 00 that looks ridiculous at 2 00 one thing that i find interesting has been so much emphasis about big cap tech, big cap tech over and over again look at the qs theyre down 20 basis point ons the week based on where they are trading at this moment they barely done anything this week in the meanwhile, energy just being liquidated not sold, liquidated the xle names are down 12 on the week and its only thursday. The cruise lines the cruises and the airlines are down pretty much almost all of them more than 4 today. The jets etf for the airlines is down more than 10 on the week yeah, large cap tech had kind of a blow off top and has been cooling off. Really those stocks are stabilizing here now, there are some pockets of very unhealthy trading what do i mean by that stock went straight up vertical for days and days and quickly loses 8 thats scary stuff and there are some pockets where that kind of unhealthy activity is going on i guess if youre a day trader, its not unhealthy its very healthy and youre enjoying it. Investor and those names are being whipped around like crazy. Those are the exceptions i think a lot of eyes are focused on apple and microsoft as two stocks if overall market is going to stabilize, maybe those stabilize first. Based on what i told you with the qs this week and even the equal weight qs, we might be seeing early signs of that i think thats the right way to be feeling now thats a fair assessment. We do bring this up when people say, yeah, im waiting for the dip. This dip is great. This is exactly wa wehat were waiting for. You dont put money to work when you get the dip. Jim put money to work when he got the dip. Jon, you bought apple at 105 103 seems to be a key level to watch according to traders wow bought at 105. While thats all true and ive been evening up my position in apple switching out of call spreads and back into the stock on this sell off what i would always emphasize because of the out performance of what jim bought, micro soft, that has over taken apple as my largest position microsoft has now over taken apple as my largest position not because of ads or subtracts in that space but because microsoft has done so much better over the short term and maybe that out performance continues. I wouldnt be at all unhappy about it i sounds like josh and jim may be over for the tech sell off we have seen do you think so when you talk about megacap tech scott, i sent the team a graft that showed that the peak when we were 70 30, well have vaccine by the end of the year we hit the all time high for the s p. That was beginning of september just after apple and tesla were splitting and so forth its kind of went down a 50 50 deal i was listening over at Goldman Sachs<\/a> and he was saying you could plot that on a graph how it went to the down side i think you put that together with the lack of stimulus, scott, and if that same outlook prevailed, if we had no vaccine until 2021 and no stimulus at all, then i think the market could break these levels that its hit but its bounced very strongly at exactly tom lees levels i dont want the fade that thst why i was comfortable adding some apple and trading out of call spreads and into the stock which i do when i think we get into that position what do we do with some of these other teches that kram rerks a er and other folks think is up too much not down that much month to date the question then morphs from about megacap tech to some of these high flying, high valuation teches and do they need to come in more in their own right. Probably, yes generally speaking we dont think the market is very over valued valuation is a terrible timing tool it can continue to rise but we think given levels with market cap at record percent gdp, forward p es reaching bubble levels, were moving more into cash we continue to trim even after this 10 correction. From a long term perspective, we think theres more down side some of the megacap teches we have been trimming more addre s aggressi aggressively its hard to grow that fast. Soon youll take over the entire economy. Some of the pure covid beneficiaries we think ran too far, too fast. We think some of the names you mentioned will have hard comps next year. Were staying away from the pure covid beneficiaries and as well as staying away from the companies that are in the direct line of covid. The airlines and some other areas and instead looking for companies that we think their Business Models<\/a> are fundamentally changed and benefitted by this pandemic. Whether the public, the market is way too come plplacen about the election the president wont admit to peaceful transfer of power is that in the market . Does that get in the market at some point ill let you take it first the fact that if biden wins, democrats win the senate, is that in the market at all . Does a different tax policy favor or factor into the market at all if you have a higher Corporate Tax<\/a> rate, a much higher Capital Gains<\/a> rate . Is that factored in . Youre only 40 days away is election chaos factored into the market in any way shape or form i think it is lets use numbers and then sentiment. Number, theres been 300 billion of outflows from equity mutual funds and etfs public, the Investment Community<\/a> has been voting with its feet. Lets talk about sentiment i had a discuss with a client and he was about to say, im scared i want to go all to cash he said this is unprecedent. The president might not leave the oval office. All the things you were alluding to there the truth is, it always seems unprecedented. The pandemic seemed unprecedented. The shutdown seemed unprecedented. The great financial crisis seemed unprecedented im saying all that because, again, in 42 years of investing, i have yet to see the world end. Some bad things may happen and thats why the market is off 10 . Maybe it goes down the 200day moving average, maybe another 4 lower. Whatever bad things happen, the idea the world will end is misplaced. The market will grow again why does it have to be this all or nothing the world is not going to end. It could be rather chaotic for a period of time the markets dont like uncertainty. This could be uncertainty on steroids im surprised you suggest that all of the potential outcomes that i read out for you, you think is in the market can i jump in on that one after jim speaks on that. You can. Go ahead, jim. I think there is probably support at the 200day moving average which is 3106, which is about 4 where we are. We have seen the market bounce off of that twice in this rally. Theres been things to fear in the last six months. We know that im not saying that i bottom ticked with my purchases today if i implied that, youll be the first to disabuse me of that you didnt imply anything you explicitly said you thought potential chaos around the election is priced into the market are you take it back scott, ive said two things one, im clearly putting money to work number two, nobody, including me can bottom tick this and say this is the bottom. Thats why im talking about the 200day moving average at no point have i said right now is the bottom in the market. Is it a good time to buy i think so im not saying this is the bottom i cant say that nobody can say that. Its good time to buy. Amy on the election, i think the range of outcomes is so vast its very hard to discount remember, in 2016 when trump was elected, the financials just ripped that was the sector to own then it dissipated in the following three years. We dont know whats going to happen its very hard the price in. I think generally speaking you sort of go back to financial theory equity should represent the sum of their discounted cash flows we still have the come back to that mantra and probably whatever happens is not going to change that too dramatically i do think of the Capital Gains<\/a> tax goes up significantly, some of these big winners, there could be a rush out more aggressive rush out so people looking in their gains and paying lower taxes, thats just a logical conclusion in general, i think politics doesnt have as big an impact on fundamental investing. I think most people expect there to be definitely tax increases if the democrats win markets have been the same if democrats win or republicans win. Its essentially the same im not talking about the next month, two months. Theres going to be someone in the white house. Maybe we should try it for a president without a while but i dont think that will last for long i understand the concern that you have, clients have, every one has about a contested election and violence and concern and political and social unrest the market is looking beyond that i believe the way the market looked beyond it at the end of march and said now were over sold and the market has to go up because things will get better. Otherwise how could we make that statement finish your thought. I was going to say thats part of a healing process that fed and treasury step in with m massive amounts of stimulus and support. It does something where things were getting much worse from the virus. Jon just real quick, when we at the all time high september 2nd or thereabouts, 3500 or whatever it was, after a 10 correction if you decide now i think youre better waiting a bit just a week ago or so it was in the 30s. Just days ago it was back in the 30s and now its popped back down under 29. In other words, i think if you give it time, youre getting into something that for a lot of us is really deep end of the pool short term trading for derivatives like options that have massive time decay in that final 30 to 60 days. If people are trying to put on a hedge now after a 10 correction, youre almost guaranteeing yourself to lose money. If we were to float back up to a high, scott and im not saying theres a guaranteed floor at a 10 correction, thats not what im saying what i am saying is time decay will kill you as time goes by. We have a debate next tuesday that might have a Significant Impact<\/a> on how people feel about the markets and about the election id say give it time after this correction rather than trying to slap on protection right now and seeing that time decay just hammer you josh, where do you come down on this issue of complacency its real from the people i talk to that are generally concerned about a level of complacency in the market around Election Outcomes<\/a> i think amy said something about how important stocks are meant to represent their cash flows. The missing ingredient so that statement is the role that sentiment plays in the short term i agree with the point youre bringing up being important. The surveys reflect that it was an constitutional Investor Survey<\/a> last week that found more professional investors, assess managements firms, more of them are concerned with the coming election than are concerned with the virus, which is wild that is, i think, the next big sentiment driving catalyst to come i think it will be profoundly negative in the short term, i do think well have chaos i absolutely think that its going to be a long drawn out fight. Even if its clear that trump wins, the electoral college, which i dont think it will be, i dont think biden will be in a rush to concede. Al gore didnt concede for six weeks. What was different about that time in 2000 versus today, neither candidate was an incumbent. Now we have an incumbent who is saying things like the only way i could lose is if its rigged he has no intention of leaving if he loses. We should take him at his word i think it could be very ugly and could drag on for way longer you dont think its priced in g jim thinks its priced in. No way. The president has powers and bill barr has powers Mitch Mcconnell<\/a> has powers and they have demonstrated they will use those powers to keep their guy exactly where they want him. I would say its not priced in here is the counter veiling force that i think ultimately will stabilize the market. By the way, we dont trade on politics all the Capital Gains<\/a> is nonsense the counter veiling forces that will help us are two fold. We will absolutely have an fda approval on the vaccine at some point during that window of electoral chaos. Thats a b, buy backs have fallen off a cliff this year. I dont think people understand the extent to which that leg of the stool has disappeared. We never talk about it buy backs were at an annualized rate of almost a trillion dollars for 2020 in mid point of the First Quarter<\/a> of this year the large cap techs that we talk about being important to the market as stabilizers, thats where the return of buy backs will show. I think well be okay. You make a good point on that point i was to bring up some information we have about buy backs and capital return plans and ask you what you think about it. Kimberly clark, lululemon, metlife. Raising dividends recently it may be coming back. Is that a bullish sign for stocks its definitely a bullish sign we have half the number of companies and shares available to buy than we did 15 years ago. Much of that is because of buy backs. Every time you reduce the supply if the demand is there, its going to help. I think that its interesting the companies themselves and the sectors in which you talked about a number that were Consumer Retail<\/a> manufacturing. I suspect that if you go through the list theyll be names where they think they are getting a bargain or something there has worked against their stock price. Thats what to me is reasonable for them to do if they have the available cash i wonder if we get into a period as josh suggest there may be unrest and sentiment that n negatively affect the market we have a president in the white house and has stability, it strikes me that management can make decisions at that level. Brexit was a major issue for u. S. Corporations that did a lot of business around the world and the election going into 16, we were looking for every bit as much sprol till volatility as we it didnt happen. I hope that companies that are general rati general ratingl rating cash flows, i hope they would not be sitting there waiting on an election outcome to do the right thing in terms of returning capital to share holders. It should help jon, hold your thought real quick. Ill get you on the other side of the break look at this mystery chart its down 40 this year. Just got a big buy call. Why it could go up 70 one of our Investment Committee<\/a> members own it well tell you about it. Stay restless with the icon that does the same. The rx, crafted by lexus. Lease the 2020 rx 350 for 409 a month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. If i could, baby id e how can i, when you wont take it from me you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only with xfinity mobile. Welcome back first, sue has the headlines for us here is whats happening at this hour. In louisville, kentucky, officials have extended the curfew for two more nights after fires were set yesterday a federal Appeals Court<\/a> has over turned a plan to settle opioid cases against Drug Companies<\/a> it would have allowed an unprecedented negotiation class of counties and towns to take pair in negotiations mary trump suing trump and two other family members claiming they cheated her out of tens of millions of dollars and squeezed her out of the Family Business<\/a> in finland researchers are testing coronavirus sniffing dogs it is hope they will become a coast effective and quick way of identifying infected travelers volunteers rub their skin with a wipe that is given to the dogs to smell giving results in under a minute you are up to date thats the news update back to you. Appreciate that thank you. Doc, forgive me for not letting you speak when you wanted to. I had to take a quick break. The platform is yours before we get to chevron everything is timing in trading and so forth. I do think they are likely to wait i think that is likely to occur. I think theres certainly an impetus to wait until whether they see whether its President Trump<\/a> or Vice President<\/a> biden because of the idea that maybe the tax increase under Vice President<\/a> biden would be one reason they would want to accelerate any of that ahead of the calendarchanging when the tax year changes for most investors. Thats the whole thing i was going to offer up. Im glad you did. Lets talk about chevron now we gave our mystery chart away there it is. The stock year to date is down nearly 41 josh mentioned how people are liqu liquidating. Jim you own it is now a good time to be buying any of these Energy Stocks<\/a> i cannot and will not say today is the day you need to buy Energy Stocks<\/a>. Its the biggest of the big. Its got the strongest balance sheet. Its picking up to debris from the destruction thats being wrought. It has a 7 dividend yield the first question is do you want to be at the waiting at the s p 500 which is 3 . Its not much. Thats where i am and im comfortable with it. Youre not willing to say that now is the time to buy the stock. I cant give you a catalyst a catalyst alone my action speak louder than my words stocks pull down is not a catalyst to loan stocks down more than 18 in a month. Yeah. The entering argument is do you have to waiting and energy as an individual investor that you want to. If you dont, then chevron is the name to fill out the Energy Sector<\/a> you getting a little snippy with me, jim not at all. You sounded like my dad sorry im just being passionate, brother. All right you said im going to say it for the third time like it didnt get through the other two times. Scott, sorry. Judge, i love you. Just checking just checking. Back at you, farmer jim. All right. Kerry, you own phillips 66, doc, you own bp nobody owns chevron. Amy, why we actually own royal dutch shell. The Energy Stocks<\/a> are trading together the important point is energy is less down from 16 in 2008. The relative under performance has been unbelievably dramatic its hard to think theres that much more to go when youre sub 3 of the s p at this point. I think the risk reward makes a lot of sense you want to be buy things when capital is flowing away from the sector that makes returns better. Thats been the case for the past five years. Goldman got upgraded today several catalysts provide a bridge to the benefits from financial targets. Jim, you own goldman jon, do you own goldman . No, i do not, scott i dont own goldman right now. I would own it based on the trading because one of the things that im doing right now, i looked back at the last 22 days of september on the trading days my average hold is less than 24 hours. I suspect a lot of the traders are like wise moving very quickly in and out the fact that its moved from three days down to less than one tells me than an acceleration thats going to be good for Goldman Sachs<\/a> but i dont own the stock now. Kramer, this morning just after 9 00, said this is not compelling buy i dont want to recommend any bank stock for fear of looking like a fool. He said of justice of the peapj bank is undervalued but nobody cares. How do you deal with that . I think jim is right. These stocks are being valued as utilities. None of their dividends are high enough to justify people getting kpietsed about them. They were on fire right after that election. Same thing with Energy Stocks<\/a>. These are the two worst performing sectors which highlights why you dont want to trade or invest based on politics what do we do with the banks now . Jpmorgan is the only one i own im not interested in wells fargo. Saying they are cheap over and over again which you could have done for ten years wouldnt have done you any good. What is the thing that finally makes them start to work i think you need curb steepening they are 20th Century Brands<\/a> and the assets they have, Branch Locations<\/a> in the cities around the country with every passing month they are less and less assets that one times book value, some of them are under one times back value. Its because nobody cares about what the satassets are that sitn their books. Look at paypal, its a 200 billion market cap its three times bigger than gold man sachs, does anyone know that these are 21st century financial sfrss brand. The fact that naert of thoeithe in financial index is the xlf is a horrible place to be i dont know what changes that im long jpmorgan. I think from a total return perspective, ill do well. Putting sam on notice square did get upgraded as well. Thats from perform over at oppenheimer. Price target established there at 185. We showed you the chart. Josh was talk about it speaking of jon, he has unusual activity today its up next you can watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app were back on the half after this i cant wiat to share at ts big 5g news. shouting through the glass at t has nationwide 5g . Yup and thats faster . Faster, yea but is it reliable . Ah huh and secure you should consider making a big deal about it bigger . I said bigger oh, bigbigger deal bigger than what im doing . Its not complicated. A 5g Network Needs<\/a> a 5g device. Now everyone including existing customers can get a free Samsung Galaxy<\/a> note20 after tradein. At morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. We see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. We see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. Today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. We are morgan stanley. Im a sustainability science researcher at amazon. Climate change is the fight of our generation. The biggest obstacle right now is that were running out of time. Amazon now has a goal to be net zero carbon by 2040. We dont really know exactly how we are going to get there. Its going to be pretty hard. But one way or another were going to reduce our Carbon Footprint<\/a> to net zero. I want my son to know that i tried my hardest to make things better for his generation. Were back unusual activity in sketchers. Tell us what youre seeing we see november calls two expirations, two big expirations out into the future. The 37 strike is what they are buying, scott. They bought a lot of those very quickly like that for about 60 cents. I bought those calls ill probably be in these for about a month. Second one qualcomm, qcom. They were with the stock at about 111. 40 they were buying calls in here the 115 calls that expire next week not this friday. The following friday ill probably be in those close to 7 days. As always, those are deep end of the pool very fast expiration that means time decay. Be careful okay. Good stuff thank you for that were ready to answer your questions next ask halftime coming up send your questions in by video as well. I look forward to that well play it on the air you caeil un mas. We will be right back. [ thunder rumbles ] [ engine rumbling ] [ beeping ] [ engine revs ] uh, you know theres a 30minute limit, right . Tell that to the rain. [ beeping ] for those who were born to ride, theres progressive. Time to answer your questions. First up, a video question for you josh my name is derek. My question is regarding Slack Technologies<\/a> i havent seen much of a run up relative to the other Growth Stocks<\/a> my question is, is now a good time to get in this stock or should i wait and jump in later . Thank you. Josh. I didnt know if you were going to toss it back to me. Im out of slack i had been in it for a while it was one of the worst performer soft raware names in whole market i could have thrown a dart and probably ended up picking up five or six names that doubled it was a big mistake by me i think its a phenomenal product. I love the company im a very Passionate Customer<\/a> of the service i have no plans to buy now jim, mike in chicago. I bought viacom in may should i add more here i think it will be in the high 30s by the end of the year on the basis of the streaming business alone which gets no respect from the street. Look for that. On the other hand, just for you, you bought may youre up a double you mieg trim a bit. Thats because you did such a good job buying. Im long im not selling. Kerry to you, what do you think of the prospects of alibaba . We like it. Its the dominant e. Commerce player we like the stock. Keep your questions coming. Well play them on the air more trades straight ahead on the half and delivering alpha is back its our 10th anniversary. September 30th thats next week were back in two minutes. Back on the halftime for future outlook moving lower today there you go right there 66 basis points this week. Joining us, brian stutlan and jim, where are we going next okay, well, if the fed wanted zero rates, i think we would have had zero rates by now i think any trades for lower rates in the short term are fine but medium and longer term are not comfortable. I think well test low that channel we had for the last six months which is approximately 0. 55 i do think its doable i think as soon the stock market gets through whatever it is going through right now, i do believe in the medium and longer term were going to steepen the curve and i think i want to see a trade above 0. 8 will indicate its out of that channel and i think lower rates in the near term brian, even when the market was going up, rates werent moving like gangbusters. What do you think . When you took a look at it, a couple defined support areas where the Federal Reserve<\/a> was in the game bidding up treasuries when you look at the tenyear note theres a couple areas whether you found support a little bit lower from here when they bid it up even though the market rallied, it seemed like the fed was there to buy treasuries, as well were still in this upchannel in the futures market here but, obviously, Interest Rates<\/a> heading lower. Probably a level i also agree with that i would like to see us touch or break through that 80 basis points on the upend here and after we break there, it will be interesting if the fed then steps back in if you see the ten year get back to 1 . If they step back in and support the market there, even if we were to get shorter stock market rally. If that sort of holds steady there. Significant decline in tenures before im totally out of the picture here until then, a good area to have in your portfolio 10, 20 holding and somebody aggressive in the markets because its a little wonky right now whats going on in the stock market a lot of sloshing around back and forth and provide a little attention in that sense final trade straight ahead. We got no free pass. Everything we have, weve earned. The unmistakable lexus is. Get zero percent financing on the 2020 is 300. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. And look, it feels like im just wasting time. Thats why Td Ameritrade<\/a> designed a firstofitskind, personalized education center. Oh. Their awardwinning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. And it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. So its like my streaming service. Well except now youre binge learning. See how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from Td Ameritrade<\/a>. Visit tdameritrade. Com learn by my health insurance. And this is the aflac duck who helped me cover it. Aflac. These are all the cab rides to my physical therapy. And aflac paid me directly to help. Aflac. What he said. And this unexpected bill is from. The twothousanddollar specialist. Thanks. Aflac. When youre sick or injured, aflac is there. We can help with Expenses Health<\/a> insurance doesnt cover. Get to know us at aflac dot com. Makes it beautiful. Stateoftheart Technology Makes<\/a> it brilliant. The visionary lexus nx. Lease the 2020 nx 300 for 339 a month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Were back and do final trades in just a second. John najarian tell me about the trades you bought. As you know, we follow in fast money when it shows up on calls or puts. This one was calls today with the markets near the lows, they came piling into th s p 500. They were buying the 325 calls then they rolled up and bought the 330 calls that expire next week, scott. So, its a very distinct amount of time that they wanted at least one week of coverage with the index at 321, 322. They were buying the 330 call. Bought 20,000 of them. Almost just like bang that fast. I followed in on those, scott. Ill probably be in those until wednesday or thursday next week. These nikola puts you have, gone, right . Cashed out yep capped out you know, these were calls or puts that are expiring anyway. So, as the stock fell, the puts went deeper and deeper in the money, scott i was lucky enough to be in them for the last three weeks and certainly paid off as the stock has just been hammered over the past, well, trading sessions were showing, i dont know where you are sitting. Down 40 to your point in a week jon, thank you for that. How about a final trade so, im going to give you a new one. Its ftv fortive spun a few years ago and sells at a discount to its peers and they produce high measurements for health care machinery and technology and logistics good stuff. Amy . We like illumina. The recent weakness gives you a unique opportunity to buy this market winner. We really like it here jim disney. Theyre reopening Disney Hong Kong<\/a> over the weekend. A catalyst in the past few months good entry point here. Trb stewart Information Systems<\/a> nine times earnings and real estate play. I love it. Doc, quick. We bought lvs during the show, scott. Lvs. Thanks, everybody the exchange is now. And thank you, scott heres whats ahead, everybody choppy ride for stocks today the s p at one point giving up its gains for the year but big turn around in stocks like apple led us back into the green well look at the forces tugging this market in both directions from top ceos to fed to wall street, everyone warning that a stimulus stalemate is bad for the economy. Some disagree and well debate if grid lock is good for the stock market a supercharge back teaming up against apple,","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia601907.us.archive.org\/34\/items\/CNBC_20200924_160000_Fast_Money_Halftime_Report\/CNBC_20200924_160000_Fast_Money_Halftime_Report.thumbs\/CNBC_20200924_160000_Fast_Money_Halftime_Report_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240716T12:35:10+00:00"}