Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240712 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 12, 2024

Good morning, welcome back to squawk box right here on cnbc this morning. Im Andrew Ross Sorkin along with joe kernen and kelly evans. Becky is off today lets show you where futures stand at this hour maybe 12, 15 hours after President Trump returning to the white house. The dow looks like it would open down marginally about 63 points off, nasdaq off about 83 s p 500 off about 15 points. Lets also show you treasury yields as we speak, well show you the ten year yield right now, you are looking at 0. 763. Meanwhile ill pass it over to kelly. Thanks for joining us this morning. And youve got the news on President Trump. And before we get to that, joe, we were just joking about, you know, you and me we could banter and we were in studio and andrew wasnt and now, you know, were all no, you are in studio still im still here. Ive been here since april and i like it here there is no delay. Is that are you wearing orange or that red i think that were in sync sort of yeah, it was an orangey red this morning it was just bright enough that i could see it in the closet anyway, great to be here with you guys lets get to the news this morning. Andrew mentioned that President Trump returned to the white house last night from waller it reed and and abe mondim mondaye standing by. Reporter yes, walking under his own power, dressed in a suit and tie and walking to marine one and taking off to the short flight to the white house. And once he arrived to the white house, we saw this dramatic moment where the president walked up the steps to the white house balcony and stood and posed for pictures at the top of the balance donny, allowing americans to see that he is standing on his own two feet, he pai appears to be fine, but you doctors say that he is not out of the woods just yet, he will have another dose of remdesivir today and he will be monitored by white house physicians. All that will be happening over the next five days or so they say it wont be until monday that they will be able to breathe that final sigh of relief as they call it so something to watch there. The president recording a short video saying that americans shouldnt of trade of the coronavirus and he has seen it and he doesnt want to dominate americans lives. And we put a poll in the field on friday night, this was right after the president was admitted to walter reed, we started polling americans this battleground states, this is between october 2 and october 4, to get a sense of how this is all impacting them and here is the headline number. Support for the two candidates in the battleground states, 50 biden, 45 President Trump so a substantial lead for joe biden. Smaller than his lead nationally which is about ten points. Five points in the battle grounds states serious concerns about covid are jumping higher, into 72 now and you see the spike up since september 3, that is an interesting bit of movement there because it is not what the president necessarily would want he ahead of the election. And who is taking more appropriate personal precautions, this is overwhelmingly joe biden, 75 biden, 39 trump so as you look at this, what you are seeing is a race where joe biden is consolidating a lead in the wake of the president s hospitalization and the wake of that debate last week. Well see whether there are other events in the next month here that in the final stretch can change the cal cause husband, the president will hope that he can do that by it is playi displaying strength and recovery from the virus and so still time here for the president , but the trend line is not where the president s people would like to be weve been focused a lot on the president s personal health for obvious reasons, but there are so many people in his inner orbit that have come down with the coronavirus. What does that mean in the final weeks of this campaign when people like hope hicks, when the press secretary, when im sure other trusted confidants arent around the stark reality is that the president returned last night to a white house that is a hot zone for the coronavirus. The first lady has been in isolation inside the white house residence with the coronavirus, the president infected, rushed to the white house yesterday, first thing he did was take off his mask and pose for pictures at the top of the balance one a conn balcony. And the west wing is also an area where the coronavirus is active we saw a number of press aides testing positive over the last 24 hours or so a number of staffers were told inside the white house staff in terms of valets and housekeepers and those sorts of employees have also tested positive. It will be an enormous challenge to get the virus out of white house. That is something that the president will have to focus on. It is a big daunting challenge because the white house is not a place that you can just evacuate and quarantine but that is the reality of the situation right now, it will mean the president will have depleted manpower as he moves forward here towards the tail end of this campaign can you speak to what his advisers are telling him about messaging, about how he articulates both the message of strength and also he made a comment last night to say dont let covid dominate your life, a lot of people looked at that statement and said it dominated 210,000 peoples lives who died. And how he will speak about the disease Going Forward . Look, the jarring thing here is that the president received World Class Health care, right he had a team of physicians. You can see the battalion of physicians in white coats treating him he had his own suite of rooms at walter reed. He had access to experimental medicine that most americans could never get. This president is not the average case here in terms of the coronavirus. That is he had, what he is telling americans is dont worry about this thing, it shouldnt be something to dominate your life, there is a risk yes, but it will be fine. Well see how that plays on the campaign trail what the polling shows is that the election is moving away from the president , not toward him. One of the things that is into the not clear is who his advisers will be we dont know who he will be able to talk to. Physically, it will being limited. Only a very few aides will be able to have facetoface conversations with the president and those will have to be under strict ppe, mask wearing scenarios. On the phone, how much energy will he have to reach out and talk to various people who can advise him on all of this, that is not clear although the president is saying that he is back and feeling good and he feels as good as hes felt in 20 years so hopefully he can reach out to a wider array of advisers. But there is that sense thathe is in a bubble as any president is normally and now that bubble is a lot smaller than it would otherwise be in and the remdesivir and dexamethasone are standard care, so he did get that im hoping the regeneron drug is as great as obviously that is the one their pewic that he got th therapeutic that he got that others maybe couldnt get. And one of the reasons why the mortality rate weve gotten a much better handle in the last three, five months on the mortality rate that has gone down as far as the age old question from people on one side that worry about the damage to the economy and what that does to peoples lives, and the other side that point to the horrific number of 210,000, but 20 to 49 years, 99. 98 survival. 50 to 69, 99. 5 and when you go over 70, you get to 94. 6, a lot of comorbiditie there, a lot of things that play into that. So in terms of all the businesses that are going to be permanently gone, all the jobs permanently lost, all the lives permanently affected, it will be an argument that we have not an argument, but it will be two sides of how we approach this that will go on and on and on and no one will get beyond that 200,000 number i mean, there have been calamities in the past obviously that are in the 40,000 and 50,000 1969, a horrific flu and we had woodstock at the time. And no one is ever going to minimize the 200,000, but the people that are on the other side of that argument about dont fear it are the ones that are worried about really lasting economic damage for where we didnt isolate the older people that were vulnerable and that the 99. 98 crowd, 20 to 49, they are locked in their house, they are unable to earn a living. You know, they havei insecurity and alcoholism and depression and not getting elective surgeries so you can see the point youre right. It is a horrific and cruel tradeoff to start to think about at what level of death are you willing to accept to have Economic Activity in the country, what level of death is worth rescuing the American Theater or Airlines Industry and not just the industries, but the people that work in the industries and that depend on that for livelihood. Not to mention being shut in and 46 that is a moral and ethical and economic be and political decision and so many components to it but youre right, that is the tradeoff that the country faces and there are no clearances here and we dont have a really clear decision from leadership about where this is going to go. We are getting a lot of mixed messaging on how this country should proceed and i think that this election will be about two different approaches, the president who is infected with coronavirus and who in his first big image at the top of the balcony takes off his mask versus the Vice President who yesterday in the nbc town hall touted mask wearing as patriotic but there was no one around him. There was no one up there with him. Joe, but then he immediately what i was going to say, make two points, he immediately then walked inside without his mask on as well. But the issue about the tradeoff is this could be done but can be done responsibly and the question is, i think as eamon said is about mess anlgting if you are telling the country not to let it dominate your life, effectively to say not to worry, weve got this and well take care of you, that is a difficult message if you are not going to respect this virus. Because ultimately if you get into a situation where new york city takes their masks off, which is what he would have entertained probably up to a week ago, and would have suggested, you would have had a lot more people back in the hospital and if you had too many people back in the hospital, you wouldnt be able to get that treatment. Yes, today, it is spectacular where we are in this country in terms of being able to get remdesivir, but that is only because we dont have tens of thousands of people who are walking into the hospital. And he was also able to get tested immediately and get into the hospital very, very early. Irrespective of the fact that some of these drugs are available to others but of course not regeneron the issue is that he do get there. Most americans didnt. So i think that there is a question about what that messaging looks like you know my view i think that we can get back to business, but do it in a responsible way and that means a lot 6 testing aof testing and wg masks. That is not what the president has had vow indicated. He may not be the biggest mask advocate, but he is not saying dont wear masks. I dont know what happens in the west wing either i hope everyone recovers,er hope all 9 senators recovthe senatorr weve seen certain hot spots because weve opened up with some professional sports and things like that and outcomes so far have been relatively positive. Major universities, major league baseball, wherever youve seen it, they take off for a couple weeks, they are back the crisis passes in a lot of these. And it is obviously much more the moreare mortality rate is higher than a horrible flu, no doubt, but when were talking about him with secret service g acts and ppe, it is not ebola that were talking about, this is not bubonic plague. No one wants to transmit to anybody else but i understand what hes saying it is not manageable 200,000 is not manageable, but i dont know whether you want to impact peoples lives that are young peoples lives forever based on not just protecting the more vulnerable if i do just add a thought here one is, i mean, first of all, youre right, but i dont think that we should minimize the shear terror for the young people who have gotten it in terms of the heart implications, permanent lung scarring. We dont really know what the long term effects are no those who survive a rough case of this and materialin terms of the wes, sports arenas have dealt with it by largely as clearing out everybody and cleaning all the surfaces and what not. It is not really something that you can do in the west wing or the white house residence. First of all, they are very cramped quarters there the hallways are narrow, offices are tiny, a lot of people crowded in to a tight space. Right now they are having a lot of people work from home, but there are certain things in termses of c of classified acti they cant just fume gafumigaten bring everybody back in. They have to still manage it and because of the physical space and degree complete and classified work in a happens there, that will be a real challenge. Complete and classified work in a happens there, that will be a real challenge. My point is that i hope everyone recovers. Between now and recovery, i dont know how they get any work done or how they campaign. But that is secondary as well. But the issue the whole issue is about modeling. It is about modeling the white house up until yesterday wasnt doing contact tracing. So when you talk about these other places, these other sports leagues are so many other institutions around america are doing so much more than the white house ever did lets try not to make this political. Well talk later we got a lot more coming up, a closer look at what is working in the markets right now, well talk u. S. Quitity equity future about 36, and later you dont want to miss this, well have a wide ranging interview at 8 00 a. M. With chamath. Everyone wakes up every morning to a world that must keep turning. The world cant stop, so neither can we. Because the things we make, help make the world go round. They make it cleaner, healthier, and more connected. Its what we build that keeps things moving forward. So with every turn, well keep building a world that works. Sfw ten year treasury yield hitting its highest level since jund an joinijune and joining us j joe, and we could talk about which way equities are headed. Where do you want to start, joe . Good morning. I think that the conversation surrounding yields is the most interesting one for investors and traders. As you rightly identified, trerkry yield trer treasury yields approached lins that we havent seen since june. There has been a cokocorrelatioo growth and technology. What is the rising scenario for those growth and Technology Stocks i would offer there is a new dynamic that is introduced and last week we saw the single biggest weekly inflow into the bond act fund since 2002 that is the inception of the bond abo bond so 1. 8 billion went in in a very defensive mannerism last week 1 billion of it alone on friday when we received the news about President Trumps covid dyi dias so does that get unwound and does to allow for both growth and technology to continue to advance. And also to see some of the value like financials advance as we well so what is the answer if you are going to position yourself based on what you are talking about, are you buying financials and tech . I think a proper blend of both is the right strategy i would not be moving away from growth, i would not move away from the faang names on concerns that yields could rise further were one week from today, you will be talking about jpmorgan and citigroup earnings as they are released next tuesday morning. And having exposure to select financials might be the right strategy looking forward so i like a blend of both growth and value. I dont want to move away from the growth as it relates to financials themselves and the upcoming earnings season keep in mind as weve discussed in prior months, the Capital Market activity remains incredibly robust. And that will offset the negative impact that continues to hold back financials with deteriorating rating margins so names like morgan stanley, names like goldman sachs, they will once again benefit this quarter from an environment of trading that is certainly unique to the experiences of trading revenue over the last several years. And this is kelly here. The scenario you are describing is kind of the goldie lgoldiloc. But interesting to talk about even yields rising from here because just to get to 75 basis points feels like it has been a huge achievement so the first part, are the gains already priced in, and the second part, a lot of people who think that yields are rising paint it as a very dire scenario, like the end of the bond kind of bull run and all of that so are you basically saying that we stay range bound, the range just moves up a little bit well, i think what it does, kelly, it acts in a positive mannerism to unlock some of the fund flows that have been so overwhelming and aggressive towards bonds in prior years and also think about how investors have sought the safety of bond proxies in the last prior years. So having yields rise to 1 or even 1. 25 , first of all, i think that is what the februaise wants. And for investor, it benefits Equity Investors as it flows out of bond funds. And do we really want to be dealing with an environment which obviously in be hach havi saw last week where investors are saying flock towards bonds because we could have a contested election and that will continue to suppress yields. We all know the economic climate that most challenges all of us is deflation so i think that this is a favorable thing for risk assets. Joe terranova, great to see you. Appreciate it. The other joe, back to you and then there is the other joe, joe is im happy with my name right now a lot of joes. Joe, joe, joe. Coming up, the nfl looking to tighten its coronavirus protocols after two games had to be moved last weekend adding strict penalties and right now, here is a look at some of the biggest premarket decliners, in this case in the s p 500. Hey, dad hey, son no dad, its a video call. You got to move the phone in front of you like. Like its a mirror, dad. You know . Alright, okay. Hows that . Is that how you hold a mirror . 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