Targeted aid maybe, perhaps as much as 25 million for airlines we have details on that. Later, a democraticled house panel calling for a crackdown and breakup of the countrys biggest tech companies. The chair of the antitrust subcommittee will join us later this hour as power lunch starts right now tyler, thanks welcome to power lunch. Im kelly evans. Were digging through the fed minutes just released. In the meantime, take a look at whats leading the rally its consumer and consumer discretionaries. The house panel is going after big tech its a mixed bag but apple and amazon both up more than 2 . With markets rocketing back after the late day drop we saw yesterday, stimulus back on the table. Bob pisani has more on what were seeing here. In fact, were at the highs for the day. Were on light volume again. The volume tends to be lighter on up days than down days recently thats a sign the pain trade is to the downside. Sectors tends to be the cyclical names here banks, industrials, materials doing well techs also doing well. The defensive names like Consumer Staples you can see utilities are all lagging. The overall trend this month and the last week or so, slight outperformance by cyclicals. We are hitting industrials with new highs. Some nice moves. Deer at a my high, u. P. S. , eaton at a new high, cummins at a new high theres hope around rotations going into the cyclical center travel and leisure stock stronger they cant figure out if theres going to be stimulus or not. Right now theyre on the hoping side theres the travel and leisure all to the upside. As for the idea well get the cyclical rotation, it hasnt happened in any appreciable way. Even today, the russell 2000 small caps doing about as well as the big cap s p 500 value has been doing about as well as growth for this week not a lot of outperformance just yet in some cyclical value areas. What traders are talking about, three things whether theres a stimulus or not, can it work, and are there two different types before the election and afterwards, and finally, is that contested election, is it now lower chances of a contested election . Thats one of the factors helping markets. Back to you. Bob, thank you very much. Lets get to the fed minutes Rick Santelli at the cme for us. Rick you know, there isnt a lot of super excitement with regard to these particular minutes because they continue to dwell on the notion of trying to apply some of the new policies referring to some of the changes in the inflation and how they deal with inflation in the future to let it as i remember versus have a kneejerk reaction, anything over 2 also, talk about how to deal with bond buying in the future and all this couched in the notion that were going through a pandemic and the economy is a bit wounded. So, all these issues cropping up but the market doesnt see anything to really sink its teeth into as evidenced by, look at intraday of two year. Were at 15. We havent moved much. If you go down to tens, hovering just around 77, 78 basis points. Even though thats the high end of a recent range, it really isnt moving or being propelled now. 30year bonds, the only instrument you can say moved up a basis point from 157 to 158. Dollar index, not a lot of movement there but at this point in time, i think what many really want to pay closest attention to regarding the fed is how it continues to underscore that fiscal stimulus. Needs to be more aggressive even though much of the data at this point doesnt really look like its flashing yellow, but as kashg kashgari said on cnbc recently, its what were not seeing that seems to be making some fed officials nervous. Back to you. Ill pick it up there, rick well talk more as Steve Liesman digests the fed minutes. Hell be with us in a minute to give us some of the more color in detail. Meantime, lets bring in seth carpenter, chief economist with ubs and Burns Mckinney, Portfolio Manager with Allianz Global Investors burns, let me start with you and ask you where you think the economy is right now and whether it is still growing, number one, or whether it is starting to slow id probably be in the latter camp we start off with basically we had a bottom that looked very much like a v but we made it halfway up the top and it started to taper off a bit if you look at the number of jobs lost, we made up about half of those jobs. And a lot of the realtime indicators are starting to slow. You cant be deceived by very large growth rates off of what is a deflated base, but, nonetheless, things are starting to slow. It seems you have around the world and certainly in the u. S. , openings and closings have been sporadic those are really a codifiction of human behavior. There seems to be places in structural damage like some Service Sectors as well as Small Businesses that arent captured by the stock markets sharp rebound. That i think that is a really important point, seth carpenter, that Small Businesses are you can look at the dow and look at nasdaq and see an awful lot of profs in Large Companies in technology, even in big retail like target and walmart. Burndz makes the case that the economic recovery looks more to him like a square root sign than anything else. Where are you on that . No, im very sympathetic to that the stock market is not the economy and all signs are pointing to Slower Growth from here forward as we look at fridays job report, that number was a disappointment and it was the fourth month in a row of slower and slower and slower job creation i think an unappreciated pothole on the jobs report was the big contraction in Government Employment in particular, state and local government of educational workers fell Something Like 280,000 in the month of september. Its that kind of pressure on state and local budgets which will lead to cutbacks in spending and that helps make this recovery slow down further and further and just take forever to get back to precovid levels. Will you stay with us for a minute as we transfer over to Steve Liesman, who will give us some of the color and detail from the report he has had a few minutes to digest. Hi, steve. Yeah, tyler, had a chance to read a couple sections of the minutes. Thought i would give you these headlines. The fed saying Economic Activity has picked up, but concern it was still well below the levels of the beginning of the year they are committed to use their full range of tools. They agree on outcome based Forward Guidance for rates and noted the dissenters, two dissenters, wanted to retain greater flexibility. They said policy guidance, quote, was not an unconditional commitment and that the path of rates will depend upon the evidence luolute economic outcome they are prepared to adjust policy as appropriate. They found activity in the economy overall recovering faster than expected they said threefourths of the decline in activity looked a bit recovered when they met back in september. They felt, however, additional Fiscal Relief would help sustain the recovery including Household Spending they noted outlays for services were slow to recover and the recovery overall was viewed as uneven they pointed to the gains that had been made in the labor market, but saying the labor market itself was a long way from full recovery. Did i hear you say their estimate was that threequarters of the lost output in the economy has been gained back yes, about threefourths of Economic Activity had been recovered. But that leaves us below where we were last year at this time on a year over year basis what is the idea go ahead jump in. Thats a really important point. You have the issue of the level and the flow you have massive increases in jobs that we have never seen 4 million, 2 million, 1 million, all of that still leaves us from a labor perspective, still 10 million below. Youre still in, even after the massive and the faster than expected recovery, youre still in a pretty deep recession yeah. Thats an interesting thats what i was driving at there. Where are we really. Certainly weve come back. We have to be graftful for that. Steve, why dont you stick around and take part in this conversation as we continue with Burns Mckinney and seth carpenter. Is there anything that steve said that strays from what you expected there arent a lot of surprises in this. You have to consider, these are minutes from several weeks ago at a time in which the fed felt we were on the cusp of getting a little more done with respect to fiscal stimulus. One of the key phrases that steve read when he noted that theyre leaving room to adjust policy accordingly the way i read that, i think, you know, the fed was kind of put into a bind. Jay powell just yesterday said we need to make a handoff to more fiscal stimulus the very same day you have the president tweeting out that, you know, were done with that until after the election and so when we think about adjusting accordingly, that could leave the door open for, perhaps, a round of openended qe, which certainly that may be in fact what the markets reacting to today. The market may see a greater likelihood it would probably be good for cyclical fall stocks some could benefit like financials, industrials as well as materials a lot of what were seeing today in the market so far. Seth, i think yesterday mr. Powell all but pleaded for fiscal help there. I dont know seems to me that we are sort of in a world of unlimited qe but let me ask you about this, which i think i heard steve say and steve can nod or shake his head it sounds like those minutes said their guidance is not a promise and so where we talked a few weeks ago about how Interest Rates were likely to be at or near the zero boundary for the next 2 1 2, 3 years, that could change. I agree i do want to echo the point on fiscal and theminutes themselves many of the participants were expecting substantial more fiscal policy. Thats clearly falling apart now. And so much like what byrnes said, our forecast has said for months now that there would be an additional openended Purchase Program by the fed, they would shift further up the curve because theyre running out of cools and thats precisely why powell wanted more fiscal stimulus. I think the option they want to keep is what happens if theres much more fiscal stimulus than they anticipated we know now its going in the opposite direction or what happens if for some other reason the economy starts to accelerate they want to be able to adjust when the economy gets to full employment, when inflation starts to overshoot. I think the other part thats really important thats going to prove to be more important than the fed realizes, their forecast for inflation coming up to the 2 at the end of 2023 is on the optimistic side. They said they wanted an overshoot of 2 . And i think its going to be hardpressed if we take the last expansion to get an overshoot even in the next three years thats the other direction where i think they might make an adjustment. Were going to wrap it up there. But i do want to give steve the last word. Steve . Two very quick points the minutes say a number of participants judge the absence of further fiscal support would exacerbate economic hardships in minority and lower economic communities. The other thing is quickly echo what seth said a lot of my reporting suggests that the absence of fiscal support could mean the fed makes a pretty major shift in the bonds that it purchases. That ultimately what it does is it takes the billions that its spending on the short end of the curve and flips those to the long end of the curve and starts to at some point, perhaps, in response to the absence of fiscal stimulus, would end up buying more longend bonds. Steve liesman, thanks very much thank you as well. Coming up, stocks are moving higher on hopes that some sort of stimulus deal will get done a top strategist says, dont hold your breath hell explain why it may be january before we see a deal plus, a house investigation says the tech giants are wielding too much power and more regulations are coming a top analyst says one of these stocks is safe from a tech crackdown. More power lunch after this. Hmms and ahhs heard incall. Hmin some ways, things in other ways, well. Any questions . The good news is. Weve learned, we can do this. Turns out when were hitting our goals, nobody cares if were wearing pants. We just need the right tools. So our team, stays a team. So no matter what comes next we can work better do better this is going to work. As washington tons play politics with Economic Relief during a pandemic, cnbc states of play survey Shows Vast Majority of voters in key states agrees more stimulus from washington is needed kayla has the numbers for us. In ending talks for a comprehensive stimulus yesterday, the president said the economy is recovering well and the stock market is at record highs as evidence that a stimulus is not needed, but thats not how the majority of swing state voters feel. According to our latest installment of the cnbc change research twothirds believe more Financial Relief is necessary from washington. That includes 67 of independents, 28 of likely Republican Voters. The Airline Industry is in particularly dire straits with the number of people who feel safe to fly just hovering around 30 . Serious Covid Concerns are spiking again among this group but at no point during the pandemic has that number risen above 40 , a clear indication for this industry, Consumer Behavior is still far from normal as Airlines Seek another bailout to make payroll or otherwise move forward with tens of thousands of layoffs. As for the current state of the economy, 57 say it is not good compared to 43 who sayist excellent or good. Those are better numbers than prior surveys but the views of President Trumps ability to improve on the economy is actually deteriorating while President Trump enjoyed a slight advantage for the majority of this year, on the economy, as weve seen in just recent weeks, the scales are starting to tip in the other direction, slightly favoring former Vice President joe biden on the economy, tyler. Thanks very much. Kelly . While President Trump is now calling for targeted aid specifically for airlines and for direct checks to consumers, our next guest is skeptical that any standalone deals will get done before the election Brian Gardners chief washington policy strategist at stiffel we heard similar skepticism last hour why are the markets rallying if everybody in the know is saying, dont bet on this happening . Thats a great question possibly some of the news thats been coming out on the last couple of days with therapeutics and the progress of vaccines, headlines related to progress with covid, i think, maybe some investors are relying more on those headlines than the washington headlines i do think its a mistake for anybody to be buying into the market based on this sense of optimism that had existed on stimulus i think its a misplaced optimism lets talk for a second about what you mentioned and the idea theres treatments in the pipeline, the ones the president received, the one approved by eli lilly today for emergency use and so forth that, in a way, makes stimulus talks less urgent, although the needs for some of these industries, like kayla was just outlining, are still very great. I wonder if we could get in a situation where the urgency is gone but the need is great as ever its interesting were using the word stimulus because i think its a misplaced word. Its not a stimulus. Its a bridge. Its a filler for people who have lost jobs through no fault of their own, through no fault of their employers this is not a market economic event. Its a Natural Disaster of sorts. And thats where government is supposed to come in and be the shock absorber this is not stimulus to get the economy going again because it suffered some kind of economic shock. Yes, longer term the news is goods and down the road Economic Activity should recover normally but in the meantime, people do need a buffer, some kind of floor underneath them. Thats what this is. Its not stimulus as we normally think of it. Its to get people through the next couple of months. Yes, the therapeutics are better yes, a vaccine is on the way but its not here yet and its not going to be here for several more months. So how do you buffer that . How do you put a floor in and aid people to get through that time thats the role of government. Thats what should be happenin right now. Agreed. Thats why the term relief is more apt than the term stimulus here lets talk through the politics of this which is how it advances or doesnt Stephanie Miller last hour was making the point that after the president s tweet yesterday that he had told them to stop talks on aid, people like Lindsey Graham saw their seats move into tossup territory vulnerable republicans are pushing for, hey, we do need to get something done here. Does that is it too late, though the timeline, the senates not even back for a couple of weeks, it would suggest its already done theres just no time to get it done before the election im very skeptical theres time to get it done before the election going back a couple weeks ago, in late august, early september, when we first got the headlines of a possible airline furlough, i thought that would be a catalyst to get the two sides closer together because they were very far apart. When that didnt result in a deal, is tig naturaled to me that the prospect for getting a deal before the election were quite remote weve been on a little roller coaster since then some days of optimism, some days of pessimism all in all, it seemed like the two sides werent close together there are certainly,