Join us. He talks about the dangers of big technical and the dire need for, yes, regulation power lunch starts right now hi, tyler. A whip saw market as washington continues to chase headlines from washington. Bob pisani has the latest on the moves. Do we have a stimulus pamann pacqui pacquiao package . No do we have an s p package . No the market believes the market will hold up well. We have new highs on target and costco and lbrands, believe it or not ande etsy has hit new highs recently fedex, some of the shippers, these are big Global Industrial companies that are continuing to hold up on hose thpes were goio eventually come out of this. I want to show you the industrials, xli here, that tells you the cyclical rally has some legs receipt now. This hasnt lasted often i dont want to go over my skis on this but u. S. Bank corp, highest levels, thats quite a move were seeing we go all the way back to the earlier part of the year to see levels higher th than that. So good news hopes for stimulus, six days after Morgan Stanley bought etrade, a deal. And eaton vance, other names, invesco doing well today these are Financial Services under a lot of pressure recently, losing assets under management the key point here is, number one, etfs lower fees generally for these companies. They need more assets under management thats why theyre buying companies. The important things here, these fees come regularly. Theyre recurring revenues and they have higher multiples you want to know every month youre getting a certain amount of money thats why wall street likes it so much and thats one of the reasons they like this deal. Guys, back to you. Bob, thank you. 840,000 new people filing for Unemployment Benefits last week. That number has been above 800,000 every week since the covid shut down in midmarch. Currently more than 25 million americans are collecting some kind of benefit. One reported Sticking Point is aid to states. Some republicans calling the proposal a handout to the blue ones is that true Steve Liesman is looking at that question for us. Kelly, thanks the 418 billion in the h. E. R. O. E. S. Act, theyre not a bailout but more funds go to states run by democratic governors. Heres the cnbc analysis, estimated 206 billion to states that voted for donald trump but states with democratic governors gets more, about 3 hundred per capita the blew states also engaged in unnecessarily long, severe lockdowns and also says states still have c. A. R. E. S. Money left over but cnbcs analysis found the allocation of money closely tracks unplouemployment california, new york and texas are the largest recipients and have the most unemployed every one of top ten states of funds received are the top ten in states unemployed the economists dragging on overall Growth Without any federal aid. There appears to be an economic need, folks, but there is no fortunately formula yet to overcome the politics of the red state blue state divide is the red state blue state divide here and the reason more of the money apart from partisan reasons that more of the money would go to states with democratic governors a function of the population of those states if you look at new york, illinois, california, those are big Population Centers that happen to be run by democrat governors. Thats part of it, tyler. In fact, if you look at the details that were sent to me by the House Appropriations committee, you find that population, poverty levels and unemployment levels are the three big things that were used. Theres two different state pots of money here, one is for local, one is for the overall state, and they are mostly determined by the unemployment rate, by the population and by the poverty rate those are the three things and, by the way, those are formulas used in other appropriations by the federal government theres a rich irony here in many cases the states that dont have as big populations do, dont they, steve, get an outsized portion of federal dollars . Thats true there is been several studies that have shown that blue states are ultimately donors into the federal budgets and red states are the recipients whats interesting here is everybody would get some depends upon how you want to divide it up it looks like because some get more than others, one side at least wants nobody to get anything all right, steve. On that cheery note, well talk to you soon. Thanks it has been a volatile day on wall street as speaker of the house nancy pelosi said there will be no stand alone Airline Relief bill without a more come hence comprehensive aid package. What happens if theres no stimulus until maybe after january . Christopher smart is chief Global Strategies and head of the barings investment institute. Mike, no stimulus until after the election, whats the big deal if it lags until january . Will the economy and the market react strongly negatively . What do you think . Look, i think the markets going to be much more interested in the size of the stimulus package than whether it comes by year end or in late january. Those are just a couple of months and theyre much more concerned about the overall size of the stimulus package. Weve been in an economic recovery over the last several months but its not as vshaped as we hoped. It seems clear were going to need another round of fiscal stimulus to continue the market rally and continue the improvement to the underlying economy. This is going to be completely contingent on the november election if we have a democratic sweep or a blue wave, the markets anticipating thats going to be United Government and essentially will lead to a bigger stimulus package, potentially multitrillion and will probably occur in january if you have a clear victory by donald trump, youll probably have divided government and stimulus will be more targeted and limited. If the election is contested or dont have a clear winner, that will suck the oxygen out of the room for the next couple of months in congress to do anything thats going to cause a lot of volatility in markets. I want to sneak in one more question for you before i turn to kristopher. Weve heard v recoveries, k recovery, i call it the square root, down quickly, up and now flat, maybe moving slightly to the right. You talked about the size of these packages it sounds like the democrats want 2. 2 billion, the republicans are willing to go 1. 6 billion why dont you just meet me in the middle said mayor marin mor whatever that song was that would be the clear and rational thing to do beau si both sides are posturing a Sticking Point is not just the number, its also the state aid. Thats going to be a real Sticking Point, particularly some of the bigger states were hit harder in the crisis that will have to wait until after the election to get resolv resolved you dont get marin morris references on any network, do you . No, thats why we watch thats why you watch power lunch. Were looking next year it an economy that is a lot bumpier and a lot less robust than people seem to be saying youre looking for a long, slow painful recovery next year with job losses, bankruptcies, educational disruptions weighing on the recovery. Paint me the picture i would have said it with a slightly more cheerier tone of voice than you used but the concern is weve had this very sharp bounce back but clearly were losing steam as we go into next year, a lot of bankruptcies that have been delayed are going to start appearing. The job losses i think the job market will continue to repair but we wont get those gains back as youve seen from the numbers today, 840,000 new claims, were sort of plateauing at that level right now. The real risk does depend on the stimulus next year, as mike just said, more likely than not were going to get more money but its not going to be more than we need and sooner than we need its going to be a little bit less and a little bit later. I would just add one down side scenario to the one that he outleanou outlined, which is actually a Democratic Administration trying to spend more money and a Republicancontrolled Senate burnishing their fiscal hawk credentials and really leading to much more gridlock in terms of when that stimulus gets out the door our base case continues to be that that stimulus is coming, if not in december, it will come in january, but i think markets need to be aware of those risks. Yeah. The idea that anybody would don their fiscal responsibility clos clothing right now in light of whats happened over the past few years is preposterous. Thanks very much. We really appreciate it. Chris and mike labella Harley Davidson revving up as a top analyst adds the name to his best ideas list he joins us to make his se fcaor hog right after this quick break. Stay with us before we talk about taxsmart investing, whats new . Audreys expecting. Twins wed be closer to the twins. Change in plans. At fidelity, a change in plans is always part of the plan. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. With the carrier rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. Investors are going hog wild for shares of Harley Davidson today, up nearly 6 after web bush added them to their best idea list saying it may be gearing up for a turn around next year. Lets bring in the analyst behind this call, James Hardeman why do you think theyre well positioned for a big turn around here i think theyve done a lot to prepare themselves for the long term what weve seen in the post lockdown phase of this pandemic is heightened demand, really a surge in demand for outdoor products, really across the board. Interestingly enough, harley looking at their financials has yet to participate in that i think thats because theyve had a lot of work to do to clean up whats been a really rough last call it five years. They had way too much inventory in the channel, they had used Harley Davidson motor cycles which were really stealing the thunder from their new portfolio and theyve cleaned that up substantially over the course of the last four or five months, which i think really positions them well to begin to grow sales as we look to 2021 in addition to that, theyve done a lot to right size their cost base so i think theres a margin opportunity that lies ahead as well. So lets talk about how much up side you see here the shares are trading around 29 i think 36 is your price target. Why do you also think the fact that theyve appeared to lose share could counterintuitively be a good thing . Thats a great point. I think a lot of investors have looked at Harley Davidson and the broader motorcycle industry as one that is really not benefitting from this sort of outdoor play that weve seen in so many other sectors. But when you look at the numbers, all of their competitors, right, all of the other Motorcycle Companies have seen a meaningful surge in sales. And in normal times you would look at market share losses such as those and say thats a really bad thing. In these times it clear that harley is starving the channel theyre trying to reintroduce this notion of scarcity into their Product Offering and, you know, based on the deal thats we talked to, thats been the reason given, but the fact that weve seen a surge in overall industry sales, weve also seen a surge in used Harley Davidson motorcycle sales all of those things serve as precursors to a broader based recovery in new motorcycle sales next year. What is the consumer appetite for Harley Davidson . Weve talked a lot about how their demographic is aging out and a younger demographics may be interested in driving different bikes, maybe something of the electric variety. Will they be able to ride that thats been the biggest bear case for a decade plus i dont think thats going anywhere i do think they have a sizable and Loyal Customer base. Even though that base is shrinking, i would argue weve shrunk beyond what the ultimate demand would suggest so if we look back to last year, it seemed like we were getting close to that inflexion point. We have sort of a kitchen sink year here in 2020 we can grow from here. Thanks for your time today. Tyler still ahead, ibm leading the dow as it goes all in on its Cloud Business is it really a game ching echan the stock . And the house Regulatory Panel recommends a crackdown on big tech, well talk to a former google, tiff, executive, Tristan Harris about the dangers of letting big tech getting more intrusive in our lives as business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will. You can rely on the people and the network of at t. To help keep your business connected. We did it c crowd cheering [narrator] wherever you start, snhu is where you can finish. crowd clapping crowd cheering here we go. [narrator] and its it. [group] yay [narrator] you did it, high five Southern New Hampshire university. [man] that gets a hug. laughing look at that masters degree, i did it i did this for my children. I am very proud of myself. [narrator] finish your degree at snhu. Edu. Welcome back to power lunch. Ibm shares soaring after announcing a spin off its infrastructure business and zero in on the cloud. The stock is trading at a valuation far below its peers, 11 times forward pricetoearnings ratio. Can investors snag a bargain here lets bring in the trading nation team, mark newton and John Petrides of Tocqueville Asset Management john, your thoughts, breaking up a 109yearold company, good or bad idea i think youre see in reactions is not only better expectations from ibm but investors hoping this is the new ceos moment for microsoft. Remember when nardella took over steve baumer, the stock had a revision and hasnt looked back. Here you see a commitment to the cloud, going into faster top line growth, which has been plaguing the company for what feels like an eternity now for our enhanced income strategy, were buying ibm where youre getting a 5 yield. Technical has been such a massive performer here to date its hard to find value. Investors have been waiting on the sideline for ibm in my opinion because theyve been waiting for the showme story, post the acquisition and this in my opinion is a good sign the stock is moving in the right direction. Its been an underperformer over the past two to three years now. I agree its human nature to try to buy low and sell heigigh. The stock peaked in march of 2013 and has been on a pretty severe downward slope. Its encouraging to see the stock up 5 . That could jump start the momentum in the short run but technically speaking, its going to take some time to really turn this around. I see up side maximum right near 145, longer term charts, we need to get above 150 to see if the stock will trend higher and not just bounce. Using the five most dominant cycles over the last five years show ibm starts to learn lower into january from here if youre technically attuned, one might want to use strength as a chance to sell into the initial bounce and try to buy dips in the months to come after the election i dont think its a time to chase the stock here interesting context mark and john, thank you for more trading nation, follow us on twitter traitidingnation ahead, its the growing social dilemma a lot of people think google is just a search box and facebook is a place to see my friends photos. Theyre competing for your attention. Facebook, snapshot, twitter, instagram, youtube, Companies Like this, their Business Model is to keep people engaged on the screen after the break, well speak to Tristan Harris about the power and reach of big tech in peoples lives and what to do about it stay with us announcer and now, the latest from trading nation. Cnbc. Com and a word from our sponsor. Dont overdue it on the small caps theyre also more vulnerable to pullbacks. Im joanna payne and schwab is the better place for traders heart monitors that let your doctor watch over you, just like you watch over your best friend. Another lifechanging technology from abbott, so you dont wait for life. You live it. Welcome back, everybody. Im sue herera a federal Appeals Court has blocked a decision to extend the deadline for counting absentee ballots in the Battle Ground state of wisconsin, a win for the republicans who brought the appeal democrats are expected to take the case to the supreme court. Residents around lake charles, louisiana are preparing for their second hurricane in less than two months. Windows are getting boarded up as People Get Ready to leave because of evacuation orders the Tennessee TitansTraining Facility remains closed after another positive coronavirus test overnight the closure is putting this sundays game against the Buffalo Bills in doubt and take a look at this in hong kong, some moments of peace and relaxation at the citys ocean park. Yoga classes are being held in front of a massive aquarium filled with sharks and manta rays and others. Its to keep the business afloat i see what you did there. Lets check in on the markets right now. Dow is briefly almost negative after nancy pelosi said no skinny deal on the airline, she wants a comprehensive one. The s p is up 2 3 of a percent