Vaccine. And we start out with breaking news on disney, putting distribution in the center part of its business. Julia. Thats right. Disneys reorganizing its Media Entertainment business to accelerate its direct to consumer strategy. It says this is in light of the success of disney plus the move divides content and creation and content distribution, creating a new median entertainment distribution group, this group will be responsible for monetizing all content including ad sales and digital platforms liking disney plus the new division will also oversover see operations of the streaming service. I would not characterize it as a response to covid i might say that covid accelerated the rate at which we made this transition, but this transition was going to happen anyway because essentially what we want to do is separate out the folks who make our wonderful content based on tremendous franchises from the Decision Making in terms of where the prioritization is in terms of how it gets commercialized into the marketplace. Weve lost julia, well bring her back as soon as we have it lets trade there because the stock is obviously reacting sharply to the news. Bob had mentioned investing more in julia and investor day december 10 will reveal a lot more changes tim, do you like this news you have to like the news not just because they are telling you that they have had better than expected success at disney plus, but again, think about the content, think about the questions around content and at least the new world order. Also at least in a world where the pipeline into studios has had basically a blocked door so the fact that you are taking the core content creators and bringing them on and making that group a single head makes a ton of sense when you consider the commitment to dtc and that content and that you includes even fox assets that they bought so you have to be excited about it, you have to be excited about almost the sense of urgency around this. And i think if you think about where the power is, the disney content creation was always important, but they now really can bridle that with 60 million plus and i know julia was trying to get fresh numbers out of them, but you have to assume that they are prettynumbers. And investor day is also a catalyst so i think there is more good news coming. And we have julia back. Did you get a sense of urgency here, does it have anything to do with dan lowe being activist in the stock now i did get a sense of urgency, but i dont get the sense that it was due to can lowe being in the stock. You said that this is a change under way for quite a while, they have been working on this for a while, and that this was just accelerated because of covid. Now, of course dan is [ inaudible n [. We are obviously having a lot of technical issues with yao i cant julias shot. Well continue to talk about this dan loeb issed a vow v investinn content. But didnt say where the money would come from nor did he eliminate the idea of scrapping it, he said that every investment is on the Table Including the dividend karen. Yeah, i think that it should be on the table given how much dea debt they took on from the fox deal and the dividend doesnt need to be only zero or what it was. It could be something in the middle so that is a possibility as well but this is sort of an interesting step, some of the structure looks sort of unusual to me where people report to still report to chapek, but under the division i didnt understand how it was going to work and i wonder if this is a step in an evolution that guy talked about with maybe espn spin. Yeah, guy it is interesting i would submit this is in response to the multiple netflix enjoyed for the last decade. And i think disney is saying to themselves if we can focus our attention on this that seems to be successful and we can get a third of the multiple that netflix trades at, you can do the math in terms of where the stocks will be trading so i agree it is a big deal. In terms of espn [ the inaudible espn a hidden gem there if they can [ inaudible we are obviously being riddled with technical issues this evening fortunately we have dan nathan to the rescue. And i would love you to hear what you think of all this, dan. Im just going to pick up where guy left off what i think is really interesting, listen, we knew that they were going to be going in this direction. They launched disney plus on november 12, 2019. So about 11 months ago what did the stock do . Beyond if we have a chart. In the month of november last year, the stock being wewent fr directly to 150. There was a lot of enthusiasm about this and the stock trending up higher prior to launch for months and months so this is where they are going and this just accelerated everything back to guys point about netflix, netflix in 2019 raised prices and they also saw their north american subscriber growth go x growth. So this was a great opportunity for disney to consolidate what was a growing trend and direct to consumer. They have the content, they never needed to spend the sort of money that netflix was doing 15, 17 billion a year and if they can do that for their own content on disney plus, it makes sense. Rich greenfield told us that last week, they have the hulu problem. A lot of optionality here at a time where i think netflix pulled forward, a lot of demand, they are likely to see massive deceleration and i think disney probably sees Pricing Power and the ability to bundle with hulu and espn plus, this is obviously a great move for disney. And for more, lets bring in rich greenfield, media and Technology Analyst great to have you with us. What is your take and you have a sell rating on disney, does it make you more optimistic this is a brilliant move in terms of first steps like disney had to figure out how they decided who made decisions. When you are making lots of content, the real challenge right now is does this go to a cable network, the Movie Theaters, to disney plus there was all of this intern with withal debate over which content went where unlike netflix which only has one price or amazon prime where there is only one place, with disney, there is 20 different places for content to go so step one obviously is are you actually putting and prioritizing this content and putting it in the place that creates the most value i think this is essentially what this new reorg is designed to do, basically, hey, we need to have a core team that all they will focus on is which content we make for which plat form. And reality of what it means for the stock, they had a whole list of movies ready to go to streaming in q4, and they delay t ed all those other than soul but the entire rest of the slate has been delayed until the middle of next year. So they still seem pretty committed to the Movie Theater business and to windowing content. And so it is great that they are reorging, i think it is the right move now we need to know when they say well be more aggressive, lets see them to do it. They have done it with hamilton, now with soul, we havent seen evidence of the shift and i think that is what the market is looking for, are they ready to embrace being netflix. And rich, thanks for joining us and that is where i would like to go on the multiple. It is all about the netflix multiple and does anything that is announced today change the multiple when they went to dtc, i felt like a more hybrid multiple was imperative. But you are the man. You tell us how we look at this. I think that you have to really think about this is not just about subscribers disney plus has lots of subscribers. 60 plus million be subscribers but remember, the arpu is a fraction of what netflix gets. And we looked at a recent study that com score put out, disney is roughly 5 of streaming time spent in the u. S netflix is 26 , 27 . And so it is not just about having a lot of subscribers, it is about how much are they actually using it. Disney plus because there hasnt been that much fresh content hasnt gotten used a lot especially over the age of ten consumers. And so i think what it comes back to is the first question in terms of the valuation for their dtc business is premised on do they actually treat it like netflix. Netflix doesnt put movies in Movie Theaters for 65, 70 days and then try to put them on dtc, they use content directly into the streaming service to drive the new subscribers. And so you mentioned before or maybe julia that they raised price on netflix last year because they added more value. So if the bulk of content, the huge amount of content on netflix has allow ared them not just to drive subs but to dri pricing and that drives valuation. And i think for disney, we have to move from this being something that you charge essentially the average arpu is around 5. How do we get that to be a meaningful, meaning 7, 8, 9, 10, twechl doll 12 moves moving original filfilms, i thi that could drive the 15 plus. Hopefully well get a sense on december 10 whether that is the direction they are going and how wedded they are to that see he gwenn shal release pattern and so rich, when you said before that now basically a centralized place within the Walt Disney Company will decide where to put that content in order to drive the most value, how is value per seefed . You gain an x number of subs or say that gchlt number x number s creates value. How do you think they will navigate that . We did a study recently that showed that netflix revenues are now greater than Disney Studio revenues netflix will be larger than disney and wa Disney Warner brothers together. And so the economics of streaming, having hundreds of millions of subscribers at 10 plus dollars a month, it is a massive business and so i would argue the right long term decision is to move content offer off of those legy pla platforms. Like i would put dancing with the stars on streaming. I dont know why a movie like black widow has to get punted to next year. Is there tremendous short term economics . There are. But if you really believe in your assets and the quality of your content and you believe that you can build a long term subscription business, i think netflix and spotify and down the list, if you really believe that you can build a scaled subscription business, the rewards are incredible so i would think if disney is looking at this, what investors are hoping for is that disney really lives up to what they say. Meaning it is not just he reorganizing it will lead to a different approach to content and they will say that well start starving these kanl ncable netws and broadcast networks, put it first on to streaming because that is where built the long term asset value i think that it will be interesting to see whether what happened in q4 with shifting movies they take a very different approach as they move into next year because of the structure. A very different Business Model from currently rich, thank you very much for being with us. Guy, ill go back to you since we have you back hopefully technical issuefree sorry but that would be a major change so lets say that what rich greenfield is prescribing happens and that disney becomes that content juggernaut focused on streaming what does that do to its other parts of its businesses . Obviously networks would be starved, cable channels would be starved of contents. But how about parking as and cr . Hopefully parks come back they all go handinhand i think that that is still a big part of their business but my point earlier was, and i dont know how far i got, i think this was in response to the success netflix had over the last decade and i think that is it, if disney can be even remotely as successful as netflix and get sort of a third of the valuation, then you are talking about a much different multiple for this stock and i think that is the game plan here you know, what they do with espn really beside the point. In terms of levels, and tim can speak to this, 136 was the high and then you have the alltime high of 153 from november right in the crosshairs. Interesting how the candle works out on that one. And shares of apple jumped 6. 3 as investors count down to tomorrows big product event and the propspect of a new 5g iphone that is coming this year to apple . Really it is a super cycle, get ready for it listen, these events, we already know what is coming. There will be three phones, 5. 4 inches, it will have a flat side, it will have 5g, it really comes down to what is the network capacity, what is the availability, what is the demand for this product right now when a lot of people are not out and about and they didnt care about download speeds. Will they be willing to intend 1100 or 1200 to upgrade their phones and i would that it will rally and they will tell you that you can have them delivered sometime in november. I dont know but overall for the nasdaq today, you saw crazy price action and it looks like the soft bank options whale was back powering these things. If you saw the fmaga complex, all massively outperforming. That has to be the largest update weve seen in a very long time on no news. Yeah. Karen, obviously i jest, we all new that 5g phone was coming this is probably the most telling Game Changing super cycle ever in the history of shares of apple. So the question is what do you do here . Well, im long. I hate when things run up on vapor. Although so many of the other stocks dan said ran up today as well i dont know how much of that was the maga euphoria versus expectations about what they will announce tomorrow i think im staying long, valuation has obviously gotten rich again, but i do believe that ultimately i dont know that it is this quarter, i dont know that it needs to be this quarter at all, but this 21, i do believe the 5g phone will be very big for apple and there are High Expectations it is already priced in. But i dont think that the valuation is crazy given that wn and dan ives will exceed that of 2015 which was driven by the 6 plus where sales rose 52 in the following 12 months after that launch. History is fun, making those comparisons are fun, but we are in a pandemic. And history doesnt repeat itself, it rhymes. And you have to get 75 million shipments out there to get some of those numbers weve been talking about 5g for a nine months. I think today may have a lot to do with technicals and again the fluff in all of those names. The good news i think for the market is Semiconductors Made an alltime high and showing a lot of leadership. But nothing about todays news that makes me run out and buy the stock and i think valuations are a little challenges. And coming up, well take a look in amazon ahead of its prime day. And later surprising call on what a win by joe biden could mean for the oil market. Were counting down to the election and trading the vote. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. With the carrier rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. Shares of amazon soaring as we count down to a much delayed prime day which kicks off at midnight it was supposed to take place over the summer but was postponed due you to the coronavirus pandemic amazon up nearly 5 today. Guy, this resets the calendar when it comes to Holiday Shopping this season and were right in the Holiday Season as you know in the thick of it. In terms of the stock, this sets up the way it did a couple quarters ago where if im not mistaken i think amazon will report on the 22nd of october. I think we take all the high of 3550 if you are tradinging it and not just owning it, i think that you own it into that Earnings Release after the bell and sell it on the close of the day i might be wrong, it might spike another 100, but i think that this will set up the way we saw it a few quarters ago when you had the pretty precipitous drop. We know target, walmart and other retailers are rom willing out t rolling out specials to compete with prime day as they have in the past. Willing rolling out specials to compete with prime day as they have in the past will we see the pressure because this falls in the Fourth Quarter and people might be spending on prime day and using funds that might have otherwise been deployed elsewhere thats a good question. Im not sure but also do we get a stimulus so people get another deposit to be able to buy Fourth Quarter holiday gifts. I dont know but going back to walmart, i think that amazon, walmart, take your get, costco, i think that they will continue to do really well im concerned for the other. Smaller retailers and i just think that the evolution that started before the pandemic that accelerated into the pandemic will really continue even quicker and that will leave a lot of retailers in a very bad spot tim staying power of the pandemic is part of this story. I think this is what karen is referring to i think that they are all benefiting from the move, and ecommerce sales are up 48 year over year, which gets you to a trillion a lot faster than people expected. And in that environment, amazon still dominating at 38 of a larger pie so whatever multiple you were throwing on their business, and i realize aws is a big part of that, but ecommerce is the place where people are throwing the multiple and dont seem to care they are probably more emphatic about that and i think that they get better for amazon. Might put the pressure early on some of the shippers, dwaan yeah, we know those stocks benefitted from their ability to ship this growth that we know that basically weve seen in six months the axle rae racceleratin online sales, so it seems that amazon last been building out the Distribution Centers and making them vaccinated, i think that they said that they will hire 100,000 people and they are relying on their own ability to get packages to people quicker but those come with costs. And we saw that over the last couple of quarters each time these guys have shown us that they are winning the pandemic, there are also a lot of costs soergtd associated witt when they report, that is something that investors will keep a close eye on. And i dont think the price action today, the calls this week are off the chart so it looks like it is a bit of a feeding frenzy buying the calls, seeing all the big names and just pushing them all toward those highs. All right. Here is what is coming up next as covid case counts rise, we talk to the ceo of a company trying to bring you the next jen raise of a