Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712 : vimarsana.com

We stock with the rally on the eve of the vote tomorrow every seconder finishing in the green. The rally after the market hand in the worst week since march. So what does todays Market Action tell us about tomorrows big vote guy, what do you say hi, mel you like my election haircut. I see. Really took it down. Really tight, nice. High and tight. Interesting. Whats it tell you today, i think a lot of people squaring up ahead of the election the vix suggests theres still a lot of concern the six vix at one point traded up to 37. 5 obviously elevated last week saw huge move from 24 to 40. It absolutely mirrors of the move of june 8 to june 11 when it went from 20 to 40 and sms went from 32. To 50 in a Straight Line so the moves are identical, i think if theres a concession speech tomorrow morning this mix of 38 probably has 28 handle theres no concession speech i think the 38 vix remains thats the way im looking at the world right now. Lets be clear, concession speech by either candidate either. I think i said by either, no, no, by either, yes, let me clarinet clarify a concession speech takes this vix to the low 30 high 20. In terms of sector action in the markets we saw tilt towards value, cyclical, financials, and indictsal, outperform. Smart and mid over large cap does it provide tea leaves as to what to expect tomorrow . If it did i cant read those tea leaves im surprised how the market did today. I thought some of the news out of europe about lockdowns would have a effect here the idea is there is no appetite for lockdowns in the united states, didnt mean people wont change their behavior even if it is not mandated. I was surprised the market was up as much as it was some stocks were ridiculous. Some names not doing well. Then you had the value names like uri was up 14 dollars for no reason. They had earnings halftime week. It was because of an infrastructure bill it was probably true on friday. But i dont really get it. I didnt change anything of my portfolio today because dont know what to make of it even if you told me exactly what would happen tomorrow night. Dan, whats your theory yeah so these guys mentioned a little bit about the under performance of the maga complex today and its interesting because it touches on a lot of themes as it relates to the election, obviously, one would be no matter what happens youre going to have regulatory head winds and you will also have potential if you had a biden win and senate flip of higher taxes, higher Capital Gains taxes, these are obviously big winners on the year, this might be a reason to take some profits. The other would be valuation i think if we were to see a more cyclic cyclical bend because of fiscal stimulus and Infrastructure Spending and you will want to the move to under performers thats what we saw today thats what a lost the positioning has been lot of the positioning has been, it could have a lot of volatility if we dont have decisive victory and were in a political quagmire under that scenario no toings do well no stocks do well in my opinion. Tim Scenario Analysis, i think, if you have a biden win and a g. O. P. Senate, i think big tech will continue to rally i think the discussion about infrastructure and resource stocks i think they are bid either way, certainly that is the sense weve had from the price action. Theres a number of Different Things that can happen but the bottom line is if you think we get a massive change in washington and you get a blue wave, i think the market in the shortterm has a period of elation because of the things that have been dis discussed, fears of unrest, and more consimple torrey policy policy globally. What it will mean for higher taxes and trade up for one off bill may be massive, the multiple is unlike the other things in the shortrun we handy cap the next 24 to 48 hours but down the road your Scenario Analysis has to be very different and you have to get back to fundamentals in the shortrun i think big tech has ways to pull back more but ultimately that will be the place people run for cover i think were only three or four percent away from a pretty significant base on triple qs. Would you agree guy, if theres a blue wave, were trading the outcome that a lot of wall street right now is betting on, the conventional wisdom right now is blue wave. Lets go down that path, if there is a blue wave, shortterm pop in the markets because of the certainty . Because maybe biden could be perceived as harder and tougher in terms of pandemic measures but long term uncertainty regarding tighter regulations particularly on financials perhaps as well as higher taxes. Only thing im routing for is for a representative showing by my football giants against the tampa bay buccaneers, thats where my rooting interest is i do a grow with tim in terms of the way this sets up, without question i do think, although people will obviously talk about higher it axes, it will be offset by the fact maybe well have stronger enforcement of measures that might make the virus might keep us safer longer now im sort of stumbling over my words because im trying not to be political. I do think it sets up okay for the market not all of the market. I think banks could come under pressure if theres a blue wave, obviously and these infrastructure waves which we talk about will continue to do well and to tims Point Technology will do well. Quickly i will say this, i thought earnings released by google was far and away the best of the best dan talks about and i can argue google is cheaper on evaluation basis now than ten percent to the down side. Karen i guess you think that. For google, alphabet . Yes, i think its a better buy today even though post earnings it was before in that quarter was extraordinary. Some of it was ad spending, i assume, so we wont see as much of that. But youtube, on every metric it was good and so, also, i think that well continue to see more clarity, which has always helped us every time google gives us more information about other bet ozzer about youtube, better about youtube or cloud it trades better. Very happy owning it here. Dan i think when were talking about this f maga complex we got to go back to netflix, spotifys report, we got to go back to twitter and think of some of the things that happened over the last nine or ten months. There was a massive pull forward and weve seen that in a lot of demand, in a lot 6 these name of these names and all of a sudden valuation is becoming a thing, Interest Rates have kind of ticked up a little bit, were kind of getting back to more classic market themes, election or not i think its really important keep an eye on that. The last point is that about this election, we could, if we had a blue wave we might not get further stimulus until february or maybe even a bit longer you know, i know people are really excited about theis m number, thats backward looking, what im looking at is this huge chaz if you will, of american citizens literally having a very tough time so i think the outlook Going Forward for a lot of these names that were relying on Consumer Spending when they had expanded Unemployment Benefits is not this i think the next few months will be a lot harder than what todays Market Action is telling us about anyoptimism about the economy. Maybe thats why a pop after a blue wave could be very short lived. Its true if we dont get stimulus until next year could not only cause damage to the economy now but could cause lasting scars with more people out of the work longer who will need new skills when they come out of it, they might have jobs that dont exist the longer this goes on so were looking at consequences wait forge the stimulus, even if the markets say its coming, it may not be coming soon enough although, i do think the nature of the virus and the way that at least you should, and i know we stalled on stimulus over the last month and half but the reality is if the virus gets worse theyre going to have to step forward, i dont care who is in power, otherwise we have major, major yore problems yes, Small Business in this country is on their knees in many p industry especially whose pit, entertainment, restaurants. I have my own views on this. Hos restaurants. I have my own views on this. I lot has to be done the expectation the market will be in a better place even if you know everything on the other side, yes, we have to stumble with our words to not sound political. Im just making a market observation in terms of outcome allblue would be relief at first and then wed have a lot of problems for the market weve been talking about valuation for months. If you are in that environment whats been defensive . It has been mega cap tech. Back that google conversation, its interesting though because google effectively finished flat today. Yes it had a pop on friday after the best of the four but its concerning how that group is trading, and that may tell you in the shortrun where they think the market are be after the elections. We have market flash on twitter, julia with that story. Melissa, were getting some of the results of twitters work with Elliott Management twitter announcing that its going it be commencing its stock buy back, it will begin authorized Share Repurchase program. Also give updates on Succession Planning this is basically this statement from twitter is the results of the Management Structure committee that was formed in response to that pressure from Elliott Management so the Management Structure committee reported to twitters board that it concluded its work and gave these recommendations which twitters board accepted, including amending twitters Board Structure to no longer have a stagger board, also assessing the current Management Structure and working to update the creos Succession Plan in line with best practices and value ating Company Management performance and of course the Share Repurchase program so i think whats important here, melissa, is this shows elliott and twitter together have now are making changes based on those recommendations and everything starting to come into play here of course we are very curious to hear that ceo Succession Planning. Thank you as we watch twitter shares climb in after hours session. No longer having stagger board means the entire board could be voted out more easily to effect change potentially at the company. Thats also very interesting dee anna at this point, sort of answer the question about growth at twitter after that last earnings report. I dont think it does much to answer the question about user growth they were very disappointed but there was a huge pull forward. They had a massive addition to monotonized daily active users in q 2 so big disappointment in q 3 but ad revenues did come back and they spoke to how it ended september and how october was looking. So put this news on top of it an the stock down 25 percent in just three trading days and you say to yourself okay this might be a pretty good entry point especially when compared to peers like pinterest and snapchat, next year they will all have similar Revenue Growth. Karen, whats your take on what elliott managed to extract from twitter. The buy back is good and removing that prevents someone from taking control. And remember jack dorsey lived half the time in africa so that didnt fly with elliott. Now the Succession Plan is important, as young as jack is, hes very engaged still you need a Succession Plan. Positive, i dont know if elliott gave up anything that they wouldnt put a slate on, any candidates, im not sure about that its a small positive. Not as important as the earnings were the other day. Yeah. Twitter shares up almost two percent. As we countdown to the election, the three big markets could play out, lets trade the vote with tom lee, great to have you with us, lets start off with base Case Scenario which is a blue wave thats right. And heading into election day were making the assumption that investors are on a buyer strike. So its been an emotional two weeks. Retail investor cash has risen so we know people are waiting for some certainty base case blue wave reflected in the polls and betting markets, i think this results in 10 percent rally in equities so s p 500 roughly 3600 because youre going to get a big lift in cyclica cyclicals,ed i think it is offset by tech, potentially trailing because of the risk of inkroesed regulation and higher taxes. Thats the base case. The other scenario would basically be status quo, correct . Yes so i think that the surprise case would be that trump is reelected and the Senate Remains republican the reason its a surprise of course is because the polling markets isnt reflecting this and betting markets are showing trump as anunder dog the reason i think this is a positive surprise. I think the stock market will rally 15 to 17 percent, s p 500, 3700 the reason less regulatory risk. Less risk of lockdowns because of the current administrations approach and possibility of tax cut i think you will get a big cyclical rally and big tech running thats how you get to 3700 on the s p. And third scenario is a form of a contested election. Yes contested election, i heard you guys say its uncertainty, i agree, its uncertainty but its actually less uncertainty. So incrementally its certain because now were through Election Night and the reason i think you still get a five to seven percent rally which is s p 500, 3500, number one, i think washington goes back to focussing on who is controlling the senate, were also likely to get stimulus pass before yearend and the fed is likely go to make an intervention or prepare to announce intervention if the markets are unstable so i think the markets will still get the lift 3500 just take us two weeks before election day. So all of the markets will be higher, is that right . That doesnt sound right to me its winwinwin no matter what. Yes and the reason im pointing that out is weve gone through an excruciating two weeks where the markets lost nearly ten percent because nobody rationally was buying equities because weve had a lot 6 selling and repositioning. So part of our presumption is weve had a huge imbalance with sellers two weeks, down eight percent, cash is reasonable on the sideline vix has gone to levels of very high levels of anxiety and drop in the vix plus moving cash up the sidelines is still going to get us a rally so im glad you mentioned this thats sort of my question i guess, in my opinion a concessions speech either way takes the vix from todays close 39 to the low 30s if not the high 20s. Have we already price in with 39 vix a contested election is that your point, the entire negative scenario is priced in visavis the vix . I believe so, i mean, im going to make an assumption here but our active institutional Equity Investors have done a lot of hedging either in derivatives or futures so they have not bet on this two weeks being smooth they bet on a lot of turbulence, so that will be repositioning postelection. Then on the retail investigators side i think thats why the cash balance has been creeping up last three or four weeks so investors are eventually on the sideline because theyre better prepared for contested election. So a clear outcome would be a massive bullish signal. It om, great to speak with you, thanks. Thanks. Tom lee of fund strap cnbc will have full Team Coverage starting at 7 00 eastern and going throughout the night all the way through squawk box dont want to miss it tim, i know you were smirking when tom outlied the three winning scenarios because every scenario is a winning scenario for the s p, apparently. Well, never smirking at tom tom is certainly taking a glass halffull approach to three scenarios that i think the market has a lot of anxiety, yes, but the market has reason for a lot of anxiety and a lot of dysfunction and valuations that are not terribly cheap in an economy that yeah i know we had 32 percent gdp and theres a reason why this week we also have a payroll number, we have the fed, and we have other things the market can focus on which goes back to fundamentals i think the parts of the rally today, so our market conversation, a rebound in housing, i think, is important and housing related trades because i think that is something that continues into the second part. Notice oil oil has priced in the fact that basically a blue wave and yet today it acted very different. I think theres good news in oil, especially on the expectation the surprise might be something not priced in oil. Coming up, jackpot in trade, one big bang said roll the dice on one casino. And first action on paypal the call is under way. Enll break down the numbers wh fast money returns. Change is all around us. Shaped by technology and human ingenuity, we can make it work for you and your business. As business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will. You can rely on the people and the network of at t. To help keep your business connected. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save hundreds on your wireless bill. Plus, get 300 off when you buy the Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Learn more at your local xfinity store today. Welcome back to fast money, check out shares of paypal sinkings after latest earnings report. Kate with the numbers now. Expectations were pretty high heading into the Third Quarter for paypal despite a 6 percent drop in the stock after hours. Paypal ceo just told me they seen a record Market Action<\/a> tell us about tomorrows big vote guy, what do you say hi, mel you like my election haircut. I see. Really took it down. Really tight, nice. High and tight. Interesting. Whats it tell you today, i think a lot of people squaring up ahead of the election the vix suggests theres still a lot of concern the six vix at one point traded up to 37. 5 obviously elevated last week saw huge move from 24 to 40. It absolutely mirrors of the move of june 8 to june 11 when it went from 20 to 40 and sms went from 32. To 50 in a Straight Line<\/a> so the moves are identical, i think if theres a concession speech tomorrow morning this mix of 38 probably has 28 handle theres no concession speech i think the 38 vix remains thats the way im looking at the world right now. Lets be clear, concession speech by either candidate either. I think i said by either, no, no, by either, yes, let me clarinet clarify a concession speech takes this vix to the low 30 high 20. In terms of sector action in the markets we saw tilt towards value, cyclical, financials, and indictsal, outperform. Smart and mid over large cap does it provide tea leaves as to what to expect tomorrow . If it did i cant read those tea leaves im surprised how the market did today. I thought some of the news out of europe about lockdowns would have a effect here the idea is there is no appetite for lockdowns in the united states, didnt mean people wont change their behavior even if it is not mandated. I was surprised the market was up as much as it was some stocks were ridiculous. Some names not doing well. Then you had the value names like uri was up 14 dollars for no reason. They had earnings halftime week. It was because of an infrastructure bill it was probably true on friday. But i dont really get it. I didnt change anything of my portfolio today because dont know what to make of it even if you told me exactly what would happen tomorrow night. Dan, whats your theory yeah so these guys mentioned a little bit about the under performance of the maga complex today and its interesting because it touches on a lot of themes as it relates to the election, obviously, one would be no matter what happens youre going to have regulatory head winds and you will also have potential if you had a biden win and senate flip of higher taxes, higher Capital Gains<\/a> taxes, these are obviously big winners on the year, this might be a reason to take some profits. The other would be valuation i think if we were to see a more cyclic cyclical bend because of fiscal stimulus and Infrastructure Spending<\/a> and you will want to the move to under performers thats what we saw today thats what a lost the positioning has been lot of the positioning has been, it could have a lot of volatility if we dont have decisive victory and were in a political quagmire under that scenario no toings do well no stocks do well in my opinion. Tim Scenario Analysis<\/a>, i think, if you have a biden win and a g. O. P. Senate, i think big tech will continue to rally i think the discussion about infrastructure and resource stocks i think they are bid either way, certainly that is the sense weve had from the price action. Theres a number of Different Things<\/a> that can happen but the bottom line is if you think we get a massive change in washington and you get a blue wave, i think the market in the shortterm has a period of elation because of the things that have been dis discussed, fears of unrest, and more consimple torrey policy policy globally. What it will mean for higher taxes and trade up for one off bill may be massive, the multiple is unlike the other things in the shortrun we handy cap the next 24 to 48 hours but down the road your Scenario Analysis<\/a> has to be very different and you have to get back to fundamentals in the shortrun i think big tech has ways to pull back more but ultimately that will be the place people run for cover i think were only three or four percent away from a pretty significant base on triple qs. Would you agree guy, if theres a blue wave, were trading the outcome that a lot of wall street right now is betting on, the conventional wisdom right now is blue wave. Lets go down that path, if there is a blue wave, shortterm pop in the markets because of the certainty . Because maybe biden could be perceived as harder and tougher in terms of pandemic measures but long term uncertainty regarding tighter regulations particularly on financials perhaps as well as higher taxes. Only thing im routing for is for a representative showing by my football giants against the tampa bay buccaneers, thats where my rooting interest is i do a grow with tim in terms of the way this sets up, without question i do think, although people will obviously talk about higher it axes, it will be offset by the fact maybe well have stronger enforcement of measures that might make the virus might keep us safer longer now im sort of stumbling over my words because im trying not to be political. I do think it sets up okay for the market not all of the market. I think banks could come under pressure if theres a blue wave, obviously and these infrastructure waves which we talk about will continue to do well and to tims Point Technology<\/a> will do well. Quickly i will say this, i thought earnings released by google was far and away the best of the best dan talks about and i can argue google is cheaper on evaluation basis now than ten percent to the down side. Karen i guess you think that. For google, alphabet . Yes, i think its a better buy today even though post earnings it was before in that quarter was extraordinary. Some of it was ad spending, i assume, so we wont see as much of that. But youtube, on every metric it was good and so, also, i think that well continue to see more clarity, which has always helped us every time google gives us more information about other bet ozzer about youtube, better about youtube or cloud it trades better. Very happy owning it here. Dan i think when were talking about this f maga complex we got to go back to netflix, spotifys report, we got to go back to twitter and think of some of the things that happened over the last nine or ten months. There was a massive pull forward and weve seen that in a lot of demand, in a lot 6 these name of these names and all of a sudden valuation is becoming a thing, Interest Rates<\/a> have kind of ticked up a little bit, were kind of getting back to more classic market themes, election or not i think its really important keep an eye on that. The last point is that about this election, we could, if we had a blue wave we might not get further stimulus until february or maybe even a bit longer you know, i know people are really excited about theis m number, thats backward looking, what im looking at is this huge chaz if you will, of american citizens literally having a very tough time so i think the outlook Going Forward<\/a> for a lot of these names that were relying on Consumer Spending<\/a> when they had expanded Unemployment Benefits<\/a> is not this i think the next few months will be a lot harder than what todays Market Action<\/a> is telling us about anyoptimism about the economy. Maybe thats why a pop after a blue wave could be very short lived. Its true if we dont get stimulus until next year could not only cause damage to the economy now but could cause lasting scars with more people out of the work longer who will need new skills when they come out of it, they might have jobs that dont exist the longer this goes on so were looking at consequences wait forge the stimulus, even if the markets say its coming, it may not be coming soon enough although, i do think the nature of the virus and the way that at least you should, and i know we stalled on stimulus over the last month and half but the reality is if the virus gets worse theyre going to have to step forward, i dont care who is in power, otherwise we have major, major yore problems yes, Small Business<\/a> in this country is on their knees in many p industry especially whose pit, entertainment, restaurants. I have my own views on this. Hos restaurants. I have my own views on this. I lot has to be done the expectation the market will be in a better place even if you know everything on the other side, yes, we have to stumble with our words to not sound political. Im just making a market observation in terms of outcome allblue would be relief at first and then wed have a lot of problems for the market weve been talking about valuation for months. If you are in that environment whats been defensive . It has been mega cap tech. Back that google conversation, its interesting though because google effectively finished flat today. Yes it had a pop on friday after the best of the four but its concerning how that group is trading, and that may tell you in the shortrun where they think the market are be after the elections. We have market flash on twitter, julia with that story. Melissa, were getting some of the results of twitters work with Elliott Management<\/a> twitter announcing that its going it be commencing its stock buy back, it will begin authorized Share Repurchase<\/a> program. Also give updates on Succession Plan<\/a>ning this is basically this statement from twitter is the results of the Management Structure<\/a> committee that was formed in response to that pressure from Elliott Management<\/a> so the Management Structure<\/a> committee reported to twitters board that it concluded its work and gave these recommendations which twitters board accepted, including amending twitters Board Structure<\/a> to no longer have a stagger board, also assessing the current Management Structure<\/a> and working to update the creos Succession Plan<\/a> in line with best practices and value ating Company Management<\/a> performance and of course the Share Repurchase<\/a> program so i think whats important here, melissa, is this shows elliott and twitter together have now are making changes based on those recommendations and everything starting to come into play here of course we are very curious to hear that ceo Succession Plan<\/a>ning. Thank you as we watch twitter shares climb in after hours session. No longer having stagger board means the entire board could be voted out more easily to effect change potentially at the company. Thats also very interesting dee anna at this point, sort of answer the question about growth at twitter after that last earnings report. I dont think it does much to answer the question about user growth they were very disappointed but there was a huge pull forward. They had a massive addition to monotonized daily active users in q 2 so big disappointment in q 3 but ad revenues did come back and they spoke to how it ended september and how october was looking. So put this news on top of it an the stock down 25 percent in just three trading days and you say to yourself okay this might be a pretty good entry point especially when compared to peers like pinterest and snapchat, next year they will all have similar Revenue Growth<\/a>. Karen, whats your take on what elliott managed to extract from twitter. The buy back is good and removing that prevents someone from taking control. And remember jack dorsey lived half the time in africa so that didnt fly with elliott. Now the Succession Plan<\/a> is important, as young as jack is, hes very engaged still you need a Succession Plan<\/a>. Positive, i dont know if elliott gave up anything that they wouldnt put a slate on, any candidates, im not sure about that its a small positive. Not as important as the earnings were the other day. Yeah. Twitter shares up almost two percent. As we countdown to the election, the three big markets could play out, lets trade the vote with tom lee, great to have you with us, lets start off with base Case Scenario<\/a> which is a blue wave thats right. And heading into election day were making the assumption that investors are on a buyer strike. So its been an emotional two weeks. Retail investor cash has risen so we know people are waiting for some certainty base case blue wave reflected in the polls and betting markets, i think this results in 10 percent rally in equities so s p 500 roughly 3600 because youre going to get a big lift in cyclica cyclicals,ed i think it is offset by tech, potentially trailing because of the risk of inkroesed regulation and higher taxes. Thats the base case. The other scenario would basically be status quo, correct . Yes so i think that the surprise case would be that trump is reelected and the Senate Remains<\/a> republican the reason its a surprise of course is because the polling markets isnt reflecting this and betting markets are showing trump as anunder dog the reason i think this is a positive surprise. I think the stock market will rally 15 to 17 percent, s p 500, 3700 the reason less regulatory risk. Less risk of lockdowns because of the current administrations approach and possibility of tax cut i think you will get a big cyclical rally and big tech running thats how you get to 3700 on the s p. And third scenario is a form of a contested election. Yes contested election, i heard you guys say its uncertainty, i agree, its uncertainty but its actually less uncertainty. So incrementally its certain because now were through Election Night<\/a> and the reason i think you still get a five to seven percent rally which is s p 500, 3500, number one, i think washington goes back to focussing on who is controlling the senate, were also likely to get stimulus pass before yearend and the fed is likely go to make an intervention or prepare to announce intervention if the markets are unstable so i think the markets will still get the lift 3500 just take us two weeks before election day. So all of the markets will be higher, is that right . That doesnt sound right to me its winwinwin no matter what. Yes and the reason im pointing that out is weve gone through an excruciating two weeks where the markets lost nearly ten percent because nobody rationally was buying equities because weve had a lot 6 selling and repositioning. So part of our presumption is weve had a huge imbalance with sellers two weeks, down eight percent, cash is reasonable on the sideline vix has gone to levels of very high levels of anxiety and drop in the vix plus moving cash up the sidelines is still going to get us a rally so im glad you mentioned this thats sort of my question i guess, in my opinion a concessions speech either way takes the vix from todays close 39 to the low 30s if not the high 20s. Have we already price in with 39 vix a contested election is that your point, the entire negative scenario is priced in visavis the vix . I believe so, i mean, im going to make an assumption here but our active institutional Equity Investors<\/a> have done a lot of hedging either in derivatives or futures so they have not bet on this two weeks being smooth they bet on a lot of turbulence, so that will be repositioning postelection. Then on the retail investigators side i think thats why the cash balance has been creeping up last three or four weeks so investors are eventually on the sideline because theyre better prepared for contested election. So a clear outcome would be a massive bullish signal. It om, great to speak with you, thanks. Thanks. Tom lee of fund strap cnbc will have full Team Coverage<\/a> starting at 7 00 eastern and going throughout the night all the way through squawk box dont want to miss it tim, i know you were smirking when tom outlied the three winning scenarios because every scenario is a winning scenario for the s p, apparently. Well, never smirking at tom tom is certainly taking a glass halffull approach to three scenarios that i think the market has a lot of anxiety, yes, but the market has reason for a lot of anxiety and a lot of dysfunction and valuations that are not terribly cheap in an economy that yeah i know we had 32 percent gdp and theres a reason why this week we also have a payroll number, we have the fed, and we have other things the market can focus on which goes back to fundamentals i think the parts of the rally today, so our market conversation, a rebound in housing, i think, is important and housing related trades because i think that is something that continues into the second part. Notice oil oil has priced in the fact that basically a blue wave and yet today it acted very different. I think theres good news in oil, especially on the expectation the surprise might be something not priced in oil. Coming up, jackpot in trade, one big bang said roll the dice on one casino. And first action on paypal the call is under way. Enll break down the numbers wh fast money returns. Change is all around us. Shaped by technology and human ingenuity, we can make it work for you and your business. As business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will. You can rely on the people and the network of at t. To help keep your business connected. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile<\/a> lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save hundreds on your wireless bill. Plus, get 300 off when you buy the Samsung Galaxy<\/a> note20 ultra 5g. Learn more at your local xfinity store today. Welcome back to fast money, check out shares of paypal sinkings after latest earnings report. Kate with the numbers now. Expectations were pretty high heading into the Third Quarter<\/a> for paypal despite a 6 percent drop in the stock after hours. Paypal ceo just told me they seen a record Third Quarter<\/a>. Beating on the top and bottom line they also raised some of their fullyear guidance, paypal saw its highest Revenue Growth<\/a> ever, 25 percent yearoveryear, that came in at a total 5. 4 billion, better than expected nongap eps also beat by 13 cents and total payments at highest ever 247 billion better than analysts were expecting of that total 44 billion came from venmo up 60 percent yearoveryear we just got couple venmo highlights on the call which is still under way. Venmo now with 65 million users jump from 60 million which in the summer paypal reported they expect revenue to approach 900 million next year and to make positive numbers to the transaction, paypal also raised its full year Earnings Guidance<\/a> and falling guidance with double dichbgit e guidance lower than expected and analysts saying it could be part of the reason the stock is taking a hit here after hours. I asked the ceo about this an they had said theyre spending 300 million on some of these Digital Products<\/a> and some of that spending could add to the earnings miss in the fourth quarter. Shulman also tells me hes cautiously optimistic heading into next year, mentioned the macro uncertainty, things like virus, vaccine, going into next year but digital separation and rising of ecommerce is helping paypal back to you guys. Thanks for those numbers. Fourth quarter guidance le below consensus estimates. Guy how do you trade paypal. Right now i know dan nathan has his chart up looking at 215 from early assessment high and october 21st number one. 175 is what we traded down to between september and october. It needs to hold there the quarter was remarkable if you look at transactions up 30 percent yearoveryear. 7 percent quarter over yaquarte. Manager margins were better. I will say cautiously optimistic should be removed from the lexicon of every ceo in the united states, its one of the dumbest things anyone can say in my opinion. Why is it so dumb were in a pandemic for goodness sake. Yeah, im cautiously optimistic how many times have you heard that and rolled your eyes . I know its countless. Youre saying it is an over used term but it actually has meaning in the context of where the economy is tim, i dont know. Looks like tim agrees with me. I think guy has had too much coffee, come on dude, back down. Its not an oxymoronic term which is what your criticism sounds like. Its frustrating when ceos dont say yes were concerned about the quarter or the environment is such that were bombastic about it but theyre not going to do that with paypal, the story is you this is one of the beneficiary of covid, ecommerce, frigsless payment and ppp loans. 85 times trailing. This is a stock that needs to pull back. Doesnt matter what they reported for the fourth quarter, it was weaker about you this stock was one of the names ahead there. Much more up next. On fast money. Red or blue whoever wins the election one thing is for sure theres regulation coming for big tech whats that mean for the Venture Capital<\/a> space . Well get some answers plus just how much volatility could contesd econteelti bring to the market, when fast money returns. Flexshares may look simple on the outside. But inside every etf. There are untold hours of careful construction. Infinite what ifs . And contingency plans. Creating funds that help target gaps in client portfolios. Tap untapped potential. And strengthen confidence in you. Flexshares. Powered by over a century of investment expertise before investing consider the Funds Investment<\/a> objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. For a prospectus containing this information. Keeping your oysters growing while keeping your business growing has you swamped. you need to hire i need indeed indeed you do. The moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a shortlist of quality candidates from a resume data base so you can start hiring right away. Claim your seventyfivedollar credit when you post your first job at indeed. Com promo welcome back to fastball were just one day away from the election tomorrows outcome could have a big impact on Venture Capital<\/a>. Joining us now, a man with a lot of experience in the vc thanks for being with us. Great to see you how are you. Good thanks got to ask, does a change in Administration Impact<\/a> the environment for the kinds of vestments you make i dont know if it changes the investments we make, the biggest risk is period of uncertainty in the markets, that part i dont know how it plays out, if we have a clear winner were good, if we fight it over three months as to who the winner is, it will be tough for everybody out there. I hope we wont see anything like that. I have a good golf buddy, mike, that i call my sensei because he guides me clearly he said dont focus on the single shot but the game at large. Thats what we have to think about, how does the big picture look not an individual day. I want to ask about the game at large, for right now, is being shaped by its pandemic i wonder if that impacts the kinds of investments youre making these days and how you sc exam investments in companies and how theyre built for future years. When we look at a company our criteria is simple, we think about people, market, product. In that order. We get that figured out then well talk about the deal. People, market, product. Really great people build great company. Thats been the case and it will stay that way. We feel great about that whats taken a lot of getting used to is trying to do it the old way when the pandemic first hit we said we cant make investment without meeting the team loandbehold weve adapted and made great deals but its changed things a lot in terms of our criteria same time, some industry have been hurt by the pandemic, we all know what those are, theres a lost on the consume a lot on the consumer front with powerful tail wind thats we announced last week, the acquisition by nestle, good example, really Strong Company<\/a> growing in great leaps and bounds did the pandemic help . Sure it brought more customers together. Sure and the pandemic is helping a name like lulu who you invested in early, how do you view those tail winds, is it short lived or a real change, how many yoga pants before you go back to work to wear proper pants. Great question. Im not nearly as smart as the guys on your panel talking about public stocks and the way they play out in our portfolio we see fundamental change and behavior that i think will be longlasting do the tail winds survive at the level they are at today . Who knows. But i think we had see fundamental changes. Theres a Small Company<\/a> who makes beautiful greeting cards instead of flowers and can barely keep up with the business because no one is going into cvs or walmart, youre going online and shipping them. Things like this helps Small Companies<\/a> tens and millions, a fundamental change, who would have before everyoneed it two or three year believed that two or three years ago so i think well see a longlasting behavior that will never step back, this will be complete changes to consumer behavior. Bob thanks so much for your time hope you will come back soon. Love to do it, any time karen, hes somewhat of a ledge nend vc world and associated with an early search engine, hes seen it all in terms of tail winds do you think some will be long lasting as bob had said . I think some will i think that workfromhome were going to have more people working from home, i a greater percentage of the time than they did before, even if we have a complete vaccine thats 100 effective. I just think that change is too hard to undo i think selling Something Like<\/a> freshly, that was a good sell, would be my bet that peak amongst the top maybe, good for them. Dan, quick thoughts here . I just got to look at karen and tell you your new haircut is fire im going to take karens haircut over guys haircut. I got a lighting and set issue going on all right, maybe pull the blinds. And change the lighting, whatever. Heres the one quick point, acceleration in anything ecommerce, obviously youre going to see deceleration ratio after the pandemic but that pull forward and demand i think is here to stay thats the take away i would have about the behavior thats changed in the last nine months. Coming up, tonights big number how many ad dollars were spent on this election who already came out the big winner first dan getting ready to throw a changeup. Fast pitch with options twist, the that name when fast money returns. When disaster strikes to one, we all get together and support each other. Thats the nature of humanity. It has encouraged other people to take the time for each other. If youre concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes . If you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities . For nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in Companies Making<\/a> a difference because we see value in doing good. Talk to your Financial Advisor<\/a> about investing responsibly with calvert. Heart monitors that let your doctor watch over you, just like you watch over your best friend. Another lifechanging technology from abbott, so you dont wait for life. You live it. Welcome back to fast money. Unless you are living under a rock youve likely been bombbarded with political ads this election cycle. Just how much money was spent and who are the big winners here julia . This is a record political ad spending, 8. 3 billion has been spent. If you look just at spending traditional media, political ad spending up more than two and halftimes from 2016 cycle to 6. 7 billion of those the biggest beneficiary is broadcast tv with 4. 5 billion in spending up from 2 billion four years ago now the biggest winners of the rush of political ad spending are the companies that own the local tv stocks on the screen. Now it is worth noting that despite those bounces from the spring, all five of those companies are down this year and all the stocks having their worse year since 2008, way down by risks, that after the election include cordcutting as well as dollars continue to shift from tv spending to digital. While broadcast tv still dominates political ad spend something losing share from 75 percent four years ago to 60 percent market share this year as digital platforms continue to make gains big winners from political ads growth on digital are google and facebook and streamers such as disneys hulu and peacock owned by comfortable, cnbcs parent company. The election is not giving a boost to twitter its not accepting political ads. Thanks, julia karen what is your take since you own both alphabet and facebook. Im trying to think about moderating how good the quarter was because the spend was so big. For disney probably a bump for them with their network. But i think its going to be shortlived so if i were owned one of those sinclairs i would sell into this strength for sure. Speaking of twitter, a name on dan nathans radar hes stepping up to the mound with a fast pitch take it away. Yeah so thursday afternoon when we dissected their q 3 results the whole panel we were disappointed with the monthly or the daily active users were not great. They had bright spots on the ad business and cautiously optimistic commentary on q4. Today at about 39 what did the stock do hit the up trend from the march low. That was good technical support. I think this stock got thrown out baby with the bath water i dont see why it has 30 billion enterprise val youll and snap has 60 billion i think they will focus more on new products and services. At their Analyst Meeting<\/a> this is how i play it. Lets do oa, i go to the Options Market<\/a> you just had the bounce off that technical support. I look at january expiration today when stock was trading at 39 you could buy 40, 50 call spread paying 2. 50 thats your max risk breaks even at 42. 5 and gains of 72. 5 dollars between 42. 5 and 50 thats how you play gap for the back fill under 40 you lose that 2. 50 but the way i think about it is you buy the stock here and risk to mid30s if things crap out over next few weeks or something more stockpacific about this story, but if you get this stock moving back above 40 then you got the stock in that range on the move back up to 50 for that gap fill. I like the riskreward here, rirv risking 2. 5 to make up 7. 5 between now and midjanuary, thats a long way to play out i like being optimistic about it. Tim has a question for dan. Dan, i appreciate the call and think its impressive youre going to try to dial 9 twice on twitter with a fast pitch. You have done great, bud but i think the market got overly worked up over the daus when that ad revenue up 15 percent yearoveryear was incredibly strong and margins were strong, what should we be looking at with this company is my question. Seems people cant pick whats the most important metric. So great question, tim. I think theres a lot of things going on over at facebook. We heard a lot about social Commerce People<\/a> are excited about that. So many things this company can do to innovate with 7 billion in cash. I think theyre going to look to go outside their lane a little bit. I think those are the sort of things were going to hear about as we work towards the Analyst Meeting<\/a>. February there was a report by someone made by sub stack for longer form sort of stuff. New products, new services, more engagement. Time to vote, are you buying dans pitch on twitter well start with the one cross over member of fast money, auctions action, guy ha do you say . Great power pitch dialing 9 refers to dialing 9 for long distance. I learn not to quote tweet from dan nathan he told me about twitter etiquet etiquette. I didnt think it was going down 25 percent i still think the best days lie ahead. Great power pitch. I like it, dan. Tim seymour id much rather buy down 25 than up 25 in this case, hes dialled 9 again, folks, 9 again. Karen yes i like the pitch too, dan. Wow. I would be a buyer of the spread i like the riskreward of that spread. Quite a turn of events. Considering on the midday call we were all joking how people would be writing no on their white boards even before hearing this pitch so really broke in your favor here the traders have spoken. Its your turn to vote on twitter. On our live poll cnbc fast money well reveal answer later in the show up next, who will see political tail wind if biden returns plans available to anyone with medicare. Many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and Prescription Drug<\/a>s. With original medicare youre covered for hospital stays and Doctor Office<\/a> visits, but you have to meet a deductible for each and then, youre still responsible for 20 percent of the cost. Next, lets look at a Medicare Supplement<\/a> plan. As you can see they cover the same things as original medicare, and they also cover your medicare deductibles and coinsurance, but they often have higher monthly premiums and no Prescription Drug<\/a> coverage. Now, lets take a look a humanas Medicare Advantage<\/a> plans. With a humana medicare plan, hospital stays, Doctor Office<\/a> visits, and medicare deductibles are covered. And, of course, most humana Medicare Advantage<\/a> plans include Prescription Drug<\/a> coverage. In fact, in 2019, humana Medicare Advantage<\/a> Prescription Drug<\/a> plan members saved and estimated 7,800 dollars on average on their prescription costs. 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Call reputation defender today to join tens of thousands whove improved their online reputation. Get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender. Com or call 18778668555. Welcome back to fast money. Check out shares of wynn after Morgan Stanley<\/a> upgraded to 95 a share potential Biden Victory<\/a> analysts saying improved relationship between u. S. And china under democratic presidency could benefit wynns business. Tim, what do you say about this upgrade. Its not enough reason to buy the stock. I think the issues theyre facing both here at home and in asia, look at the last numbers of revenues you see vip and premium mask are nowhere and expectations are not supposed to be high. I wouldnt say you run far away from the stock 72 to 75 is a good line in the sand but wouldnt be buying it depending on a change in the government not a good reason to own the stock. Guy, quick. Vegas Spring Loaded<\/a> as they get away from vegas going that route, tim makes a good point. If you see incremental improvement i think lvs will be Spring Loaded<\/a>. Yes i use the term Spring Loaded<\/a>. Coming up the fear index is on the move. How should you prepare for election outcome much more fast money after this. Welcome back to fast money, we are on the eve of election day and theres been plenty of commentary around how much volume at we could see after the vote one trader saying the worse might be over, mike. In the vix today we saw puts outtrade calls by almost two to one on above average volume and most active options were the december 20 puts on the december vix future crossing the tape for 23 cents buyers are betting the december vix futures could decline. For weeks weve been talking about the fact weve seen higher than average implied voluatilit beyond the election day, this could be the first sign net the election and up tick of covid that are seeing optimism, some bet perhaps the worse of the volatility may soon be behind us all right thanks for that tune in for his full show 5 30 on friday. And tomorrow, cnbc will be life throughout the night kicking off at 7 00 p. M. Eastern time. Well go right up through squawk box for every move the night. Up next, still time to vote on our twitter poll, are you buying dans fast pitch. Well give you the results after this turn on my tv and boom, its got all my favorite shows right there. I wish my Trading Platform<\/a> worked like that. Well have you tried thinkorswim . This is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. Okay, its got screeners and watchlists. And you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks youre interested in. Now this is what im talking about. Yeah, itll free up more time for your. Uh, true crime shows . British baking competitions. Hm. Didnt peg you for a crumpet guy. Focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. Othey help us with achievable gsteps along the way. So we can spend a bit today, knowing were prepared for tomorrow. Wow dad, do you think you overdid it maybe . I dont think so. What do you think, peanut . Nope. Honey, do you think we overdid it . Overdid what . See . We dont think so, son. Technically, grandparents cant overdo it. Its impossible. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. High protein. Low sugar. Tastes great high protein. Low sugar. So good. High protein. Low sugar. Mmm, birthday cake. Pure protein. The best combination to help you stay fit. Welcome back to fast money. It is time to find out if viewers at home are buying dans fast pitch on twitter. It was a tight race but theyre not retweeting, that means you loss 53 percent voted no, the rest voted yes, so, sorry davenport time for the sorry, dan time for around the horn in risky environment, google with least risky bet. Google is my election play. Dan yeah, im going to stick with twitter here they gave us enough to look forward to with the stock down in support down 25 percent in three days, i like it. If you dont know what to make of the u. S. Markets look at other markets, yum china very good, stock up couple bucks is back down, liyum china. I wake up cautiously optimistic you take such joy when we lose these power pitches. I dont. No, you do. Lets make it on sads roll the bones, mel back to you. Thanks for tcwahle fast money, my mission is simple is to help you make money. Mad money starts now i am cramer, welcome to mad money, welcome to cramer america. My job is to not only entertain you but to educate you here we go again with the value of growth. 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