Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240711 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Fast Money July 11, 2024

Hey, melissa, these results were so much better, and if all went really well melissa, we have 90 of efficacy with this trial and this Covid Vaccine from pfizer. This is a 44,000participant trial. The way they measure efficacy is how many cases of covid they see in the trial they want to see more cases in the placebo arm than the vaccine arm, to show that the vaccine is protective thats what they saw to the opportunity of 90 efficacy. They said they saw no serious safety concerns, and they will proceed to the end of the twomonth safety followup window before they would seek emergency use authorization. That will happen next week after that we could see them proceeding for regulatory clearance. There are still questions remains. This was just topline data, and it looks to be safe, but theres still questions how does it prevent severe disease does it prevent infection completely or just manifestation of the disease with symptoms other questions are how long did the protection last . Weve seen polls of maybe half of americans are not willing to get the vaccine. And the other is supply. Pfizer has said only 50 million will be available in 2020. Up to 1. 3 billion in 2021. Thats around the globe, not just in the united states. We spoke with the ceo this morning about the historic news and whats to come next. Heres what he said. This was very important, but only the first step. Now we feel very, very confident about the efficacy, because its overwhelming we feel good about safety, but we need to wait until next week when the safety data will be complete based on the guidelines of the fda and of course we need to make sure we can constantly manufacture in both continents, in europe and in the u. S. , in the quantities we are saying we feel good about all of that so theres a lot to be worked out still, but still before 6 45, we didnt know if we were truly going to get a covid19 vaccine. At least this one works. Meg, a couple questions about the limited number of doses, not only has purchase order agreements effectively with the united states, but also the eu, the uk, japan. Im wondering how do they prioritize the distribution of a limited amount of vaccine this year, as well as next year. We pressed the ceo about that he wasnt specific about how theyll be making those decisions. However, im talked with folks involved in this effort in the united states, who do expect that the united states, because it struck its supply agreement first, does have a claim on at least some of those doses. The way they structured this, alex azar spoke about this on fox news earlier today he said 20 million doses will come in per month in the united states, starting in november thats 40 million doses for the rest of the year pfizer has said 50 million will be available, so thats fourth fifths coming to the united states, if thats correct, but you know, it cant be a difficult ethical situation, trying to figure out which governments should get these doses. Yeah, and then also the other question i had, meg, in order to actually claim that the trial has gone to completion, it would have to reach, what, 164 infe infected patients within the trial and right now theyre about 70misshorish short we dont know when the 164 will hit. What happens to that window, that twomonth window . How does that affect approval . So two months is the window set from when half of the people in the trial have received their second shot. So pfizer has already vaccinated half of the people in the trial. They know that thats the third week of november that window doesnt change based on how many people have been infected in the trial. 94 infections so far is faster than people were modeling. The infection rate is so bad right now, its not inconceivable to think they would reach of end of that trial fairly quickly at that point, they will unblind the trial, and switch them over to the vaccine thats sort of the award for being in the study, you get the vaccine after they unblind. Meg tirrell, thank you. The news sending stocks rallying today the dow hitting an intraday record for the first time. The nasdaq notably negative, for its first loss in six sessions guy, what do you think maybe the tech trade is over i dont know if its firmly on, but were clearly on the way. Weve seen fits and starts like this before. I dont think its hyperbole for the united states. Its a great day. You look excited. Theres a couple things no, look at me im think. I know youre a big jimmy cliff fan, and he wrote a song, many rivers to cross. Thats the way i feel today. Theres many rivers to cross to get us to the summer, and were coming up on the worst possible time for the covid virus the market is pricing in a lot of good things the one thing i take away from this is, pfizer, which obviously made this announcement closed exactly where it was on the 29th thats interesting ibb closed unchanged on the day. And oh, by the way, the vix closed significantly higher on the day. Ive said a number of times youll see a market top when you have a huge day, which you obviously saw in the dow jones and the s p and the investment x closes higher. Its just something to keep in mind im 23409 trying to throw cold water. Dan, youre nodding your head well, jimmy cliff also wrote a song that said i can see clearly now. I can see clearly now that the machines are in charge here, man. That gap on the opening was absolutely ridiculous. What you just went through with meg, all the things that have to happen for this vaccine to be widely commercially available and really get in recoveries at the trade or reflation, i think the market has gotten way, way ahead of itself. The s p 500, the way it sold off was kind of incorporating that and probably some other funny business that will go on here politically over the next few weeks. To your point about the nasdaq, i dont think that trade is over i think they will come back to the maga complex for a heartbeat. Thats microsoft, apple, google, amaz amazon they were not able to make clearly just topped out before the october high, so we are in a bit of a downtrend i think youll have an opportunity to buy those stocks against, probably at the breakout levels from late summer. I mean, if one of the playbooks for this m. A. G. A. Trade, if you want to call it that, is the economy will exhibit slow growth, so you want to be in the names that have organic growth, maybe thats off the table, karen, in a world in which a vaccine prevails i think so. We always talk about the market as a forwardlooking mechanism, but just a couple things to talk about today that i think are important. First, thank you to pfizer im sure they have worked tirelessly since this began. This is a citizen of the world, so thank you to pfizer one thing we always talk about is how to play the vaccine, and i think were unanimous dont play it through the biotechs, place it through the airlines, the cruises, the hotels, those names, because those went kind of crazy today the most sort of Covid Vaccine stock that i own is livenation, and you can imagine festivals with people standing together, breathing on each overt, yelling and screaming, arent the right place to be, except this was a fantastic day for them i sold some stock, just thought it goat way ahead of itself, and the enterprise value was bigger than the beginning of the year they have lost a ton of money, they have raised debt, so that doesnt make sense to me, but fedex down 25 bucks, that wasnt such a covid winner, in that the multiple doesnt reflect that. The other thing about fedex is they do a lot of business to business, which is very profitable for them. That will improve it if the vaccine becomes widespread the xlf i dont think has been up this much since 08 when you werent allowed to short financial stocks this was a crazy day this is like for a zoom, which moved in the opposite direction today. Since this is the jimmy classify block, i would say the stuff that moved lower today, the harder they come, the harder they fall. But so lets pick up with the banks. J. P. Morrison was up, but jpmorgan is up 30 in the last 30 sessions and outperformed since the third or fourth week of september the argument that we were making all along, if the economy is at least stronger than expected and main street, that the banks theres summoning error or the banks are wrong. They rolled back significant provisions today i think thats the most important trade, because the banks have really been the ones whose earnings were absolutely fine, but its impossible to know what the credit exposure was. When you layer in whats going on with tenyear yields and where rates have moved its a fantastic environment for banks. A lot of that because of earnings excuse me of loan revisions that have rolled off, but nonetheless a very good day. Its an extraordinary day when the tenyear yield is within a shot of one percentage point in a matter of days. Lets bring in our own jeff mills, the general, whos not only a fast money trader, but the cio of brinmore trust. Sorry i cant see everything. I do believe it, but i agree with dan that this isnt going to be a straight line. Any inclination that theres trouble with the vaccine, you will see people but if you look back between now and the end of the year, i do think that this piece of news removes one of the primary governors on the breadth of the market weve been so desperately missing. So its the efficacy rate, i think thats the big surprise. I think this probably gives us a clearer timeline and come out with a vaccine of similar effectiveness. If you go back to last wednesday, as an example post election, the market was up quite a bit, 57 was actually down on that day i think the more conviction investors can get that we arent going to backslide, i think that typical rotation that we would have expected off the bottom can start to materialize, and i think we can start to begin to anticipate the beginning of a new Economic Cycle as as we move into 2021. It wont be a smooth ride, but i think that gap starts to close over the next 12 months. Obviously a lot of institutional investors, professional investors have been so heavily invested in the tech trade, so make got caught offsides a bit as to what happened on the market today, and i wonder if you think this is a resizing their positions as we go into year end, you dont want to be too heavily in tech when you have this cyclical trade on. Yeah, no question people were a bit offsides the moves we say today i think were extreme we will have fits and starts at the height of the tech bubble, just to put it in context, they had about 14 that traded at greater than obviously largecap tech has done better, but signs of excess in that side of the market, and when you think about the calculation here now, i think we still get some sort of fiscal stimulus it means the vaccine is a bit more clear you have a fed thats probably not going anywhere, and you have pretty decent earnings growth. Companies beating are beating by 20 . The average is 3 or 4 . You think about expectations out to 2021, 2022, it is industrials, materials, consumer discretionary, and obviously energy coming off a low bar, but those are the sectors that will ea earn hey, general, its tim. I think what youre saying around the eps dynamic is we were giving companies a pass on 21, normalize on 22. Are you saying the bar needs to be raised before 22 i think you get sometimes bad news is good news. Im saluting you, tim i feel you. [ laughter ] not a people start to move in a clear direction toward the cyclicals, obviously more optimism will be priced into those names. You wont be able to look to normalize earnings, people will have to effect earnings will materialize more quickly than that i also think, to the point theres a lot more wood to chop here, i think stimulus has to be part of this equation. I actually tweeted this out earlier, to varying degrees of skepticism, but i think that the vaccine news today may be counterintuitive be impetus for another round of stimulus. If you have a government that knows its billing a specific bridge from today to when activity can return to normal, i think the digitsal spending may be more palatable, and less of a fear of throwing good money after bad, because the end game is clearer i think you may have a better chance, and you have that stimulus at least in some form, i think it helps the rotation. Jeff, love your work. I was going to ask about your teeth, so you answered that before i cant ask, but a huge move in the banks, does this make sense put your trader hat on, and say you fate a 15 move in some of these bigcap names. If im trading the bank, i probably will fade the move. Weve been talking about ive been skeptical as it relates to the banks. Whether it should be or not, thats how they trade. Im skeptical that youre going to be a massive steepening of the real curve, so in financials, i would still rather by in diversified financials like goldman or Morgan Stanley or payments like visa or mastercard i was looking at the chart of schwab today, it looks like its picking up momentum, so the banks specifically, i think they can participate once the rotation picks up steam, but this kind of move today, i think you can probably buy them a bit lower again. Jeff, great to see you, in true fast money fashion, im wonder, karen, if you took this opportunity to trim anything else, seeing the outsized moves across a lot of the value sectors, which you own this move before today was up big, so 30plus percent, for jpmorgan at 91 or 92, so i probably would sell some outofthemoney calls this move is really gargantuan coming up, the stayathome stocks in a slump today. Is this the end of the road for some of this years high flyers . More fast money in two minutes. To high quality Computer Science and stem education. I joined amazon because i wanted to change education and i am impatient. Amazon gives me the resources to change the world at a pace that i want to change it. We provide students stem scholarships and teachers with support. Im a fighter and im fighting for all students. We have an earnings alert for beyond meat. Shares are plunging. They posted a loss saying the pandemic weakened the demand for its product. Sort of an interesting tale during the regular session here we are in the afterhours session, and basically they want during the pandemic consumers were loading up their freezers and the result is very, very weak sales. I think we saw that in a lot of consumer staples, you know, in the last seven or eight other nine months. Could you see a restocking in im not so sure if we are going to have the sort of spike that a lot of people are expecting or that looks apparent right now, we may not go back to kind of being more at home this one is down a whole heck of a lot right now, but you may see a restocking trade again. We should note that the short interesting is guys, if you were a believer in the future of alternative meats, which i know you are, is this your opportunity . See youre leading me down this road because no, let me just stock only the stock. Think about the stock traded almost 200. It went of basically 75 in a straight line. So you have to ask yourself, where is the reentry point i think it comes in the form of 98 or so. In terms of the quarter, absolutely disaster. I didnt realize that you had to refrigerate these things and put them in your freezer i thought they were more like twinkies the reentry point look like 98. Tim, where you do you stand on this stock . Im glad we didnt get into guys constitution i think youve always had a competitive dynamic. Thats why i couldnt hold the valuation, even in the pandemic, if you just think about momentum around the stock, todays news was great for food service if anything, restaurants can see the future somewhere, and even if its not tomorrow, we get some sense were close to that that should have been great for a company that has been certainly getting you the headwinds attach to that part of the business i dont think this has ever been worth own at the valuation its an exciting area to be in, but is this the multiple you still want to pay for . By the way, the ceo will be on mad money tomorrow, so you dont want to miss that. We are just Getting Started here heres whats coming up next. Announcer peloton hitting resistance, zoom getting dinged, but which of these stayathome stocks has staying power well have those details, next later, buckle up options traders are betting on lyft shares to move higher the trade is ahead weve got that and a lot more, when fast money returns. Hi, my name is sam davis and im going to tell you about exciting plans available to anyone with medicare. Many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and Prescription Drugs. With original medicare youre covered for hospital stays and Doctor Office visits, but you have to meet a deductible for each and then, youre still responsible for 20 percent of the cost. Next, lets look at a Medicare Supplement plan. As you can see they cover the same things as original medicare, and they also cover your medicare deductibles and coinsurance, but they often have higher monthly premiums and no Prescription Drug coverage. 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There is no obligation, so call the number on your screen right now to see if your doctor is in our network, to find out if you can save on your prescriptions, and to get our free decision guide. Humana a more human way to healthcare. Welcome back to fast money. A big rally on wall street, but not all stocks went along for the ride check out some of the big stayathome winners that missed out today. We thought it would be a good time to ask the question should i stay or should i go thats right, should you stay in these stocks or go . Karen, what do you say i would say go. This was a great company, and zoom is now part of our nomenclature now, but on a valuation basis, at this pric

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